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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (New Staff Post, Please read)

No chance Nintendo sells a console at $500.

(Edited the hell out of my post)

If Nintendo ever goes to $500, i can see Nintendo doing two skus at launch: 128GB at $400 and 256GB at $500. I know. Those storage size numbers are disgusting. We should at least get double those storage sizes at those prices, if not triple. I get there's inflation involved, but Switch 2 isn't a flagship mobile device with mobile sizes games. It's entering PS4/PS4 pro tier quality games that will easily go 50-100GB for AAA 3rd games.. But Nintendo will likely never go that far ahead for devs and consumers. Will they break even with Switch 2 consoles? I'm not expecting it at all. They are probably reasoning that the price of mobile tech being expensive and factoring into the cost of the console, and that they themselves make games that are 32-64GB in size in house, so every other dev should compress their games, or too bad. And of course rely on and everyone to buy SD cards.

But it's clear small base storage sizes do affect AAA third party games from coming to Switch. We don't need Activision/Bobby to tell us. Many of us here suspected that already years ago.

Game carts are expensive and we don't have any data on how many switch owners buy micro SD cards, and what the average storage they buy. We likely don't see 64GB carts for sometime being used and I bet most devs at first will go 16GB over 32 and have consumers download the rest.

It only makes sense to make Switch 2 as future proof as possible by making it dev friendly and consumer friendly. But I don't think Nintendo will go that route for a respectable base storage. Not unless it's at a high price.
 
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The other interesting price for next year is how people react when the PS5 Pro costs $700, lol.
i fail to understand why a ps5 pro would be needed right now tbh with you. it’s not like we’re even seeing anything that puts the ps5 through it’s paces. almost everything is still available on ps4.

not to mention that you will be able to play rifts apart using a hdd on pc. it will most likely hinder the game somewhat but not to the extent it becomes unplayable. which just goes to show that next gen’s offerings aren’t even THAT special to begin with.

which shows that if the switch 2 manages to match a ps4 pro WITHOUT dlss, it should be more than capable of playing the “next gen” games we’ve been seeing over the last 2-3 years. nintendo fans will be eating good if everything pans out the way we expect.
 
it was 3 milions units, Breath of the Wild needed to make a profit, if we divide 3×60:$ 120 milion budget?
3*60 would be 180, but...
... this article is untrue, and it's well established

 
I love my Switch, but if the Switch 2 costs $500 it better have some actual features. I'm talking a web browser, backgrounds, media apps, quick resume, messaging, real folders, a camera, etc. Obviously not all of that will be included, but damn at least give me some.
You’ll get a pair of drifting sticks and a sign that says “we know you were going to buy it anyway”🌚🤭

(I’m kidding, I mean no harm)


On the discussion of price, idk but a standard edition and a sort of “deluxe” edition could be done.


Standard has:

1x Tablet
—128GB internal storage (can be expanded, no extra storage included)
1x Dock
1x HDMI cord
1x AC Adapter
2x Joycons
2x Wrist Straps

$399.99(?)

White in color/colour

Deluxe:

1x Tablet
—256GB internal storage
1x Dock
1x HDMI cord
1x AC Adapter
4x Joycons
4x Wrist Straps
1x Pro Controller
1x UFS* or MicroSD card (64GB) as expandable storage

Black in color/colour

$499.99-$549.99(?)

*Since it’s Nintendo(a business), they can buy these in bulk (yes you can do that) and they would be a lower cost per card by negotiating a quote.




Anyway, they would be accessing the lower priced market still, although not as low as the switch at launch.

Maybe if they are ok with selling a bit of a loss at the start as things start getting cheaper over time, and they’d do an uneven price of $379.99
 
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You’ll get a pair of drifting sticks and a sign that says “we know you were going to buy it anyway”🌚🤭

(I’m kidding, I mean no harm)


On the discussion of price, idk but a standard edition and a sort of “deluxe” edition could be done.


Standard has:

1x Tablet
—128GB internal storage
1x Dock
1x HDMI cord
1x AC Adapter
2x Joycons
2x Wrist Straps

$399.99(?)

White in color/colour

Deluxe:

1x Tablet
—256GB internal storage
1x Dock
1x HDMI cord
1x AC Adapter
4x Joycons
4x Wrist Straps
1x Pro Controller
1x UFS* or MicroSD card (64GB) expandable storage

$499.99-$549.99(?)

*Since it’s Nintendo(a business), they can buy these in bulk (yes you can do that) and they would be a lower cost per card by negotiating a quote.




Anyway, they would be accessing the lower priced market still, although not as low as the switch at launch.

Maybe if they are ok with selling a bit of a loss at the start as things start getting cheaper over time, and they’d do an uneven price of $379.99
Ah yes, two launch variants at different prices, that worked out SO well for Wii U.
 
3*60 would be 180, but...

... this article is untrue, and it's well established


I mean it depends how you count it but I mean how many people worked on BOTW? Then if you include Engine Development, Distribution, Marketing etc it will be certainly a high number. Maybe not 120 million but certainly in a high 8 figures number.
 
Ah yes, two launch variants at different prices, that worked out SO well for Wii U.
Two launch variants has worked great for PlayStation 5 so far actually.

You’ll get a pair of drifting sticks and a sign that says “we know you were going to buy it anyway”🌚🤭

(I’m kidding, I mean no harm)


On the discussion of price, idk but a standard edition and a sort of “deluxe” edition could be done.


Standard has:

1x Tablet
—128GB internal storage
1x Dock
1x HDMI cord
1x AC Adapter
2x Joycons
2x Wrist Straps

$399.99(?)

White in color/colour

Deluxe:

1x Tablet
—256GB internal storage
1x Dock
1x HDMI cord
1x AC Adapter
4x Joycons
4x Wrist Straps
1x Pro Controller
1x UFS* or MicroSD card (64GB) expandable storage

$499.99-$549.99(?)

*Since it’s Nintendo(a business), they can buy these in bulk (yes you can do that) and they would be a lower cost per card by negotiating a quote.




Anyway, they would be accessing the lower priced market still, although not as low as the switch at launch.

Maybe if they are ok with selling a bit of a loss at the start as things start getting cheaper over time, and they’d do an uneven price of $379.99
Zero chance nintendo would launch a model that doesn't let people use expandable storage, unless you are saying that the Deluxe would include the storage rather than being the only model compatible with it.
 
I feel like $500 is way too high and will price out families wanting to buy multiple systems per household.

It should be $400 max
True but it's not like families are going to buy more than one system at launch. Families usually get one, tell the kids to behave and share, then eventually maybe get another. If you're a family that is getting 2 or 3 systems for one household then a $100 price difference likely isn't going to be that big of an impact.
 
Ah yes, two launch variants at different prices, that worked out SO well for Wii U.
Working fine for the PS5.

The Wii U didn’t fail because of a different price, let’s not try to spin this into something else now.
unless you are saying that the Deluxe would include the storage rather than being the only model compatible with it.
It includes the card slot, not that it is the only one with an expandable storage slot.

For the standard, you have to have the storage or buy it separately.

I only listed what is in the box.

That’s not what the “what” was for, it’s about the “$60 x 3 = 120”

Which… isn’t true? Unless you are considering the cut from other things that we don’t know about…?

Meaning they make 40 profit per copy of Zelda BOTW (not TOTK) sold. But how do you know that?
 
I mean it depends how you count it but I mean how many people worked on BOTW? Then if you include Engine Development, Distribution, Marketing etc it will be certainly a high number. Maybe not 120 million but certainly in a high 8 figures number.
All we can realistically say is, "it was expensive". Trying to divine a number is impossible for all the reasons in the world
 
Ah yes, two launch variants at different prices, that worked out SO well for Wii U.
Having all standard inputs didn't work well for the Wii U. Nor did a touchscreen, nor using disks, nor having BC.

This doesn't make any of these or
other common practices on many successful products into bad ideas.
 
True but it's not like families are going to buy more than one system at launch. Families usually get one, tell the kids to behave and share, then eventually maybe get another. If you're a family that is getting 2 or 3 systems for one household then a $100 price difference likely isn't going to be that big of an impact.
To be fair, a $100 price difference becomes $200 if you buy two consoles.
 
Having all standard inputs didn't work well for the Wii U. Nor did a touchscreen, nor using disks, nor having BC.

This doesn't make any of these or
other common practices on many successful products into bad ideas.
I definitely think it's a bad idea for a NINTENDO console. I also don't think the PS5 and PS5DE, or Xbox Series X|S situation is comparable. Those are variants with huge, 100-200 dollar price differences (over 250 for the X Vs S in Europe), and literally different features.

You can't really replicate that with the next generation Nintendo Switch. Launch with one with no Game Card Slot for a while 100$ cheaper? Launch one with a cut down SOC? It's just not practical, and there's a reason they have never, not once not ever, done it with one of their handhelds.

All the Wii U Deluxe Set could offer was a bunch of barely useful tat nobody wanted and some more storage, of all things. A next generation Nintendo Switch launching with a "Deluxe" set that has more storage, and extra tat like extra Joy-Con and extra straps, isn't emulating the Xbox or PlayStation variants that have been successful, that's emulating the MISERABLE FAILURE that was Wii U. Something they don't want, nor should anyone, them to do.

I say all this as someone whose favourite console IS Wii U. The split between Deluxe and Basic set wasn't the straw that broke the camel's back, but it sure as hell was one of the nails in the coffin.
 
I think $500 is more likely than we want to believe. I don't it's the likely scenerio, and Nintendo will definitely do everything in their power to price it at $400 (or even $450, which I think optically is still significantly better than $500), but if they have to launch at $500 to avoid taking a loss, they will.

A lot of it comes down to timing too. Switch is still hot and Nintendo has a lot of positive buzz. If they launch in the first half of 2024 or, at the latest, holiday 2024, they're probably still riding a lot of momentum and will do well even at that price point.

Sadly, people have also gotten used to paying more for gaming experiences over the last little while as well. Sony and Microsoft announced hefty price increases to their consoles in a lot of regions, and it doesn't seemed to have significantly slowed down the appetite for them.
 
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I definitely think it's a bad idea for a NINTENDO console. I also don't think the PS5 and PS5DE, or Xbox Series X|S situation is comparable. Those are variants with huge, 100-200 dollar price differences (over 250 for the X Vs S in Europe), and literally different features.

You can't really replicate that with the next generation Nintendo Switch. Launch with one with no Game Card Slot for a while 100$ cheaper? Launch one with a cut down SOC? It's just not practical, and there's a reason they have never, not once not ever, done it with one of their handhelds.

All the Wii U Deluxe Set could offer was a bunch of barely useful tat nobody wanted and some more storage, of all things. A next generation Nintendo Switch launching with a "Deluxe" set that has more storage, and extra tat like extra Joy-Con and extra straps, isn't emulating the Xbon variants that have been successful, that's emulating the MISERABLE FAILURE that was Wii U. Something they don't want, nor should anyone, them to do.

I say all this as someone whose favourite console IS Wii U. The split between Deluxe and Basic set wasn't the straw that broke the camel's back, but it sure as hell was one of the nails in the coffin.
X360 launched with Core (no HDD) and Pro (20GB) models and had many storage options afterwards.

The new 3DS launched with 2 screen sizes at different prices and replaced both OG and XL at once.

Switch also had a $250 dockless option in Japan until the Lite (but don't remember if from day 1 or not).

We also have a dozen of successful examples from Nintendo handhelds and Switch, except they weren't launched on the same day.

So what you likely want to argue here is that they should hold onto offering options until they release revisions. But you need to do a much better job at explaining why if you want to shot down people suggesting them.
 
Only “one” problem nobody was buying the system.

I say that as someone who loved my Wii U. But even the GameCube wasn’t as big a monetary sinkhole and was profitable for Ninty.

But a flop the Wii U was, just as the ps3 was a financial disaster for Sony. The only thing that saved Nintendo was the 3DS…

So, I can’t in good conscience say 3DS was flop.


Edit for clarification: Also, the console being profitable itself with the purchase of a game doesn’t offset prior losses. Whether that be manufacture, advertising, development, etc…You still need to sell a decent amount of consoles.
By the time the WiiU stopped selling 3DS more or less covered whatever financial loses the system may have incurred. It was only really the WiiU failing & 3DS struggling early that caused the monetary loss for Nintendo.
 
Ah yes, two launch variants at different prices, that worked out SO well for Wii U.
Most bought the black higher priced SKU vs the default, because it was a better deal. The Wii U didn't fail because it had two different launch units...

I feel like $500 is way too high and will price out families wanting to buy multiple systems per household.

It should be $400 max
$500 is definitely high. But I'd give it to the core gamers as a high tiered option, if it's worth it. i would pay $500 if it's at least 512 GB (assuming base is 128 GB). Obviously $400 or less for the base model.
base is 128 GB).
I definitely think it's a bad idea for a NINTENDO console. I also don't think the PS5 and PS5DE, or Xbox Series X|S situation is comparable. Those are variants with huge, 100-200 dollar price differences (over 250 for the X Vs S in Europe), and literally different features.

You can't really replicate that with the next generation Nintendo Switch. Launch with one with no Game Card Slot for a while 100$ cheaper? Launch one with a cut down SOC? It's just not practical, and there's a reason they have never, not once not ever, done it with one of their handhelds.

All the Wii U Deluxe Set could offer was a bunch of barely useful tat nobody wanted and some more storage, of all things. A next generation Nintendo Switch launching with a "Deluxe" set that has more storage, and extra tat like extra Joy-Con and extra straps, isn't emulating the Xbox or PlayStation variants that have been successful, that's emulating the MISERABLE FAILURE that was Wii U. Something they don't want, nor should anyone, them to do.

I say all this as someone whose favourite console IS Wii U. The split between Deluxe and Basic set wasn't the straw that broke the camel's back, but it sure as hell was one of the nails in the coffin.
Let's see.

Wii U base at $300 came with 8GB RAM and all the required cables: Ac Adapter, HDMI cable (sensor bar, your favorite 😏) and 8GB storage

Vs

Wii U Deluxe at $350 came with everything from Wii U base + 32GB storage (instead of 8), Nintendo Land game, charging cradle and stand, and a 1 year Nintendo Network premium Subscription (10% discount of digital games)


Its clear which one is the better deal. 4x the storage space, Nintendo Land game, charging cradle and stand, and 10% digital games for a year is worth the $50 upgrade
 
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Yeah, no. A $500 price tag sounds like borderline suicide for the successor, imho. Hell, $450 is already pushing it. I can understand the logic being that people shelled out for the PS5 at launch, despite it being $100 more expensive than the PS4 Pro (at launch, anyway, I don't know how much of a price drop it got before the PS5), but now we're talking about a $150 difference, compared to the OLED. We might get another 3DS situation, though the transition would be a lot better.
 
Unless Nintendo doesn't pay their employees at all, a 6 year production that had over a thousand people working on it over its dev cycle is going to be extremely expensive.

Nintendo is obviously not hyper efficient budget wise anymore (if they ever were) because their games take just as long to come out and dev costs are people multiplied by time.

So Nintendo's big games (TotK, Metroid Prime 4, etc) are either

1. Very expensive to make
2. Nintendo has very few people making them at any time (possible, but seems very unlikely considering how many people in total end up working on TotK and other games)
3. Nintendo pays their employees significantly less than other companies
What's your source for a 1000+ people?

And I do think 2 is true, for the majority of development time. Nintendo games spend a long time in the prototype stage, bejng worked on by a small team, before they bring in the cavalry. Also Aonuma said TOTK spent a year after it was content complete just ironing out bugs, the sort of task where a small team often is more efficient than a large team.

The end-credits may mention 1000+ people.
They didn't all work on this project for 6 years.

A lot of the game was already in place. I just see BotW with more stuff on top.
A core team of maybe 50 people developed the gameplay mechanics, going back and forth with directors and study groups to see what works.
Only then did they think about developing the bulk of the game around the mechanics, which were mostly set in stone.

Most managers jump from project to project, mostly in HR, selecting people for roles.
Voice actors worked on it a few days, maybe 2 more if there are re-recordings.
Writers worked on it a few months, if not weeks, maybe with some tinkering mid-development if things didn't work out. I don't see a lot of investment there.
Motion-capture actors should be done in a week.
Composers had months of work,
Q&A employees were increasingly on it in the last 2-3 years.
Most concept artists worked in the concept stage with sparse gigs mid-development.
Most Monolith Soft employees were busy on Xenoblade games for most of the time, coming back to Zelda to create the depths, a few other assets and re-touching textures.

They all have their name listed.
Teams in the AAA gaming industry are a lot more dynamic than we think.

There is a lot of work in the rendering and physics engine, which appear to be different from BotW. All that R&D is probably transversal to the company, with many games benefiting from it. I wouldn't be surprised if ModuleSystem[1] appears in more games.

it was 3 milions units, Breath of the Wild needed to make a profit, if we divide 3×60:$ 120 milion budget?

Most markets have ~30% taxes, so $60 becomes $42.
Physical games cost around 30% more (rough estimate for 16BG cart, shipping and retail margin, I'm probably wrong here). Assuming 50% digital, so roughly 15%, $42 becomes ~$35.
Nintendo needs to keep eShop servers running and, being a publisher, needs to keep customer service running, so I'd imagine at least 15% on a popular title (I'm probably wrong here, I'd expect more), so ~$35 becomes ~$30.
Marketing is a big deal, sometime being at least half the budget, but being Nintendo I'd assume 40%, so we are at $18.

So if BotW needed 3M to break even, this all gives ~54M is development costs.

I'm doubting the 3M break-even figure, but ~50M in dev costs, for a title that had a lot of experimental R&D, seems about right.
 
All we can realistically say is, "it was expensive". Trying to divine a number is impossible for all the reasons in the world
It‘s fun to analyze or to speculate. At least for me from a dev perspective to try to get some relation of what is needed to create a huge game like this. I mean I‘m not going to make some clickbait news article about it. You could say something similar about the next hardware too. All we can realistically say is that "it is coming eventually". Still we can talk about it.
 
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I definitely think it's a bad idea for a NINTENDO console. I also don't think the PS5 and PS5DE, or Xbox Series X|S situation is comparable. Those are variants with huge, 100-200 dollar price differences (over 250 for the X Vs S in Europe), and literally different features.
I'm confused. Other than the lack of a disk drive what features is the PS5 Digital Edition missing?
 
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I mean it depends how you count it but I mean how many people worked on BOTW? Then if you include Engine Development, Distribution, Marketing etc it will be certainly a high number. Maybe not 120 million but certainly in a high 8 figures number.
I suspect it was substantially higher, but also that much of the engine development was amortized over multiple projects.

I've seen this meme quoted to both say that Nintendo is way over charging for Zelda because it was so cheap to make and that Zelda is a huge big budget AAA project. I mostly just want the meme to die.
 
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The end-credits may mention 1000+ people.
They didn't all work on this project for 6 years.

A lot of the game was already in place. I just see BotW with more stuff on top.
A core team of maybe 50 people developed the gameplay mechanics, going back and forth with directors and study groups to see what works.
Only then did they think about developing the bulk of the game around the mechanics, which were mostly set in stone.

Most managers jump from project to project, mostly in HR, selecting people for roles.
Voice actors worked on it a few days, maybe 2 more if there are re-recordings.
Writers worked on it a few months, if not weeks, maybe with some tinkering mid-development if things didn't work out. I don't see a lot of investment there.
Motion-capture actors should be done in a week.
Composers had months of work,
Q&A employees were increasingly on it in the last 2-3 years.
Most concept artists worked in the concept stage with sparse gigs mid-development.
Most Monolith Soft employees were busy on Xenoblade games for most of the time, coming back to Zelda to create the depths, a few other assets and re-touching textures.

They all have their name listed.
Teams in the AAA gaming industry are a lot more dynamic than we think.

There is a lot of work in the rendering and physics engine, which appear to be different from BotW. All that R&D is probably transversal to the company, with many games benefiting from it. I wouldn't be surprised if ModuleSystem[1] appears in more games.



Most markets have ~30% taxes, so $60 becomes $42.
Physical games cost around 30% more (rough estimate for 16BG cart, shipping and retail margin, I'm probably wrong here). Assuming 50% digital, so roughly 15%, $42 becomes ~$35.
Nintendo needs to keep eShop servers running and, being a publisher, needs to keep customer service running, so I'd imagine at least 15% on a popular title (I'm probably wrong here, I'd expect more), so ~$35 becomes ~$30.
Marketing is a big deal, sometime being at least half the budget, but being Nintendo I'd assume 40%, so we are at $18.

So if BotW needed 3M to break even, this all gives ~54M is development costs.

I'm doubting the 3M break-even figure, but ~50M in dev costs, for a title that had a lot of experimental R&D, seems about right.

1. Obviously not all 1400 worked on the game for all six years
2. If you think BotW and TotK only cost $50m to make each, you're very funny.

The 3m figure has never been given for either game.
 
I think people really underestimate how much of a market there is for better current gen console. Devs don't like it, because more work for meh reward, but a PS5 pro at a premium price will likely sell decently. Inflation chugged along a lot for a reason, there are people out there with money to spend throwing caution to the wind, (Looks like US inflation is stabilizing now at least). Not to mention the scalping we all saw. Sure a Pro would just be maybe higher internal Res before upscaling, a few effects, maybe some okayish ray tracing versus the nothing burger we have now. Maybe better FSR stuff. Nothing super revolutionary (and not all devs will bother with everything for a smaller install base). Yeah it is nothing quite like actually getting 1440p out on to bigger TVs like last gen's Pros. But people pay crazy amounts for graphics cards for similar benefits and consoles (and playing Spiderman with super duper grahixs is an easy sell (at least before the inevitable PC port).
 
The 3DS flopped because

1. Nintendo used its perceived price wiggleroom on 3D, a feature it turns out no one cared about
2. Nintendo did not have the price wiggleroom it perceived because the iPhone ate the DS's market. It's hard to find a competitor that could realistically eat the Switch's market for the Switch 2.
An absence of competition does not mean there’s less of a limit on what a consumer believes a product to be worth. 3DS struggled at launch because it was priced more than consumers felt it was worth and stopped struggling when that was corrected. And given that it was quite profit-extractive compared to prior devices in its category at launch, consumers were right to feel that way.

As the subject of Game Cards came up again, I thought I'd do a little digging to see if there were any clues online as to what Macronix's XtraROM (which is used in Nintendo's Game Cards) actually is. As it turns out, a bit of patent searching gave me the answer. In this Macronix patent from 2012, on page 3, they give a list of flash and ROM types including "NROM (XtraROM)". So, Nintendo's game cards use something called NROM.

What is NROM?

NROM is Nitride Read Only Memory. It was invented by a company called Saifun Semiconductors and details were first published back in the year 2000. Despite the name, it wasn't originally intended mainly for use in read-only memory, and is a type of charge trap flash which competed in the early non-volatile memory space with NAND and NOR. It was used in some flash products in the early 2000s, such as AMD's Mirrorbit line, but seems to have all-but disappeared by the mid 2000s, as NAND took over. Macronix were reportedly the first licensee of the technology, and started production of flash products using it branded Nbit in 2002 (they still use the Nbit branding for XtraROM).

There are likely a few reasons that NROM didn't last long against NAND flash, the primary one probably being cost, which was reportedly why Toshiba declined to use it in favour of NAND in 2002. However, when looking at patents, one thing which seems to come up repeatedly is that erasing data is a particular issue with the technology. Here's a quote from a 2004 Macronix patent:



Basically, NROM has significant rewrite performance and endurance issues, and they become more serious as the manufacturing process improves. Obviously this is something Macronix and others worked on solutions for (it's what this patent is about), but it may have been a factor in NROM's limited use in the flash market.

However, when Nintendo came to Macronix in the early 2000s looking for a replacement for mask ROM to use in game cards for the DS, they're presented with a use-case which completely side-steps the rewrite issues, as game cards only ever need to be written once when manufactured. It also seems as if there's a trade-off in the technology between shallow-trapped electrons, which improve rewrite performance at the expense of having charge retention issues, and deep-trapped electrons, which has better charge retention, but has worse rewrite performance. For a write-once use-case like XtraROM, Macronix could implement a variant of the technology which achieves very high charge retention (ie high longevity in a write-once use-case) at the expense of rewrite performance.

Does anyone else manufacture NROM?

As far as I can tell, no. I can't find any references to it being used outside Macronix since the mid 2000s, and other than Macronix all the early manufacturers of it either exited the flash market or switched to NAND. Saifun have ended up, through a series of acquisitions, as part of Infineon Technologies, although they don't have any references to it on their website more recently than 2005.

Many modern 3D NAND flash manufacturers have actually switched to a charge trap flash approach, as opposed to floating gate cells, which were standard in planar NAND. However the technology and manufacturing processes likely don't share much in common with Macronix's NROM-based XtraROM by this point.

Could Nintendo buy similar game card hardware from another supplier?

Probably not. Other common ROM types like mask ROM and EEPROM offer nowhere near the capacity of XtraROM, and although another company could in theory develop and manufacture a similar technology (the original NROM patents have now expired), it would likely be a very long and expensive R&D process. Macronix is a specialist in niche flash technologies, for example being a large NOR flash supplier, and have been developing NROM products for 20 years, so it's unlikely another company could, or would be interested in, creating a similar ROM product.

That's not to say Nintendo don't have other options, but my personal guess is that any alternative suppliers would use NAND based solutions. As @oldpuck pointed out here, the kind of cheap NAND used in SD cards is rated to last for around 4 years, compared to a 20 year expected lifespan for XtraROM. Another supplier would have to find out a way to bridge that longevity gap with NAND while keeping the game cards affordable.

Nintendo actually did source some DS (and possibly 3DS?) game cards from Sandisk, who presumably used a NAND based solution, so it wouldn't be completely unprecedented.

What does this mean for the speed or capacity of game cards going forward?

No idea. Given Macronix are the only company to have used this technology for almost 20 years, and they've never published significant technical details or roadmaps for it, your guess is as good as mine. However, it's not NAND, so you probably shouldn't make assumptions about it based on advancements in NAND flash technology, and the density and performance scaling challenges may be very different to those of NAND flash.
This is all cool info and all, but I am not seeing the connection between this technology and what Nintendo is actually using.

Additionally, with this using the charge trap approach, that should mean that they would be OEM-programmable (read: Macronix fabricates blanks that are programmed by Nintendo and/or 3rd-parties), but all evidence indicates that they are pre-programmed by Macronix themselves, which would be incredibly inefficient, which makes me think this is not the technology in the ASIC XtraROM Nintendo is using and it is, in fact, just an OTPROM on a smaller process node than most other ROMs on the market that can be programmed using a cost-prohibitive method rather than a charge trap method suggested or the old mask ROM method that requires the data to be designed with the chip layout before fabrication.
 
By the "it" I meant that the expectation at the time was that mobile smartphone gaming would replace consoles and handhelds and companies needed to fully put all attention towards, not that the market would reconfigure where it becomes another category (albeit a big one, given the number of people that have smartphones). In addition, while there are still efforts to break into that market, companies have also become more realistic about doing so. As I mentioned above to find success in this market you need games with streamlined controls, a very addictive gameplay loop that you can monetize overtime through some sort of freemium model (you will not be selling games at a large fixed price in this market), the tooling of marketing around the fact that you are entering a saturated market with tons of games and other non-gaming content that people download for free, and access to the wider spectrum of the market where people are not running the most powerful smartphone hardware or the latest software. This does not lend itself to console-level production (which is not just about budgets, though that also plays a partial role, but also the types of games you can make on mobile versus console/PC).
But it has effectively replaced what was once thought of as handheld gaming. And, companies are still not entirely realistic about breaking into the market as seen with Nintendo’s attempts at it. What your describing as the “keys to success” isn’t really true either since you need a game people are intrigued by. Lots of new mobile games have what your describing but if they don’t hook people then good luck.

What I’m describing as resource intensive & expensive is not only limited to budgets. Again what is “console-level production” because what your describing isn’t it. Scaling between hardware would mean any multiplatform game on the Switch/PC would not be “console-level production.” In the same vein I’m not sure what mobile is doing that would limit the type of software being made that would preclude it from being “console-level production.”

The only thing I can gather is that “console-level production” is just full priced MSRP AAA games. Which isn’t really a distinction since, at this point, they are a variant of F2P with a 60/70$ price tag on top.
 
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By the time the WiiU stopped selling 3DS more or less covered whatever financial loses the system may have incurred. It was only really the WiiU failing & 3DS struggling early that caused the monetary loss for Nintendo.
This isn’t the entire story, but it is basically what I said.
So, ultimately what is your point here? I was responding to the claim the Wii U was profitable with the purchase of a game, no?

What does the 3DS carrying the burden have to do with Nintendo not making the money it expected to with the Wii U? In fact losing money and profitability by using one console to cover the failure of another. Which is why the 3DS can’t be really considered a flop. For without it Nintendo would’ve surely been in far deeper shit. It kept them afloat during and after the Wii U…
 
Regarding the price, does anyone know if in general they choose a sell price and how to position the product, a profit margin etc, then find a combination of components accordingly? Or is it the other way around ? If the former, inflation may not be a factor, and they would arguably reproduce previous path patterns no ?
 
Selling only 80 million after the DS sold 150 million is absolutely flopping much in the same way that the PS3 is considered to have flopped even if it sold 87 million units.

WiiU being one of the most catastrophic flops for nintendo doesn't mean the 3DS was a success.
But unlike the PS3, the 3DS did not bleed all of the profits of its predecessor. I call that a success.
 
Regarding the price, does anyone know if in general they choose a sell price and how to position the product, a profit margin etc, then find a combination of components accordingly? Or is it the other way around ? If the former, inflation may not be a factor, and they would arguably reproduce previous path patterns no ?

I imagine it's a give and take where they set a maximum possible price they could sell it for, design the system around components that hit that price (minus the margin they expect to extract), and then see which of these components are worth the cost compared to scaling them back or removing them and therefore lowering the price. Or they could come up with a list of components decently below their max possible price and then examine whether or not it would be worth upgrading component X or Y.
 
Selling only 80 million after the DS sold 150 million is absolutely flopping much in the same way that the PS3 is considered to have flopped even if it sold 87 million units.

WiiU being one of the most catastrophic flops for nintendo doesn't mean the 3DS was a success.
No.

And if you can’t understand why think about it this way, ps3 lost Sony billions, 3DS made up for all its own missteps and the Wii U. Making Nintendo profit before the switch was released.

The numbers are mostly for consumer engagement, businesses care about profits. 3DS made a profit…
 
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