I still see Nintendo trying to aim for a holiday release in 2024, holiday releases for hardware are beneficial for a lot of reasons and even an announcement as late as December for a Switch 2 could cut into console legs for 2023 holiday sales. There isn't really any incentive to announce the next hardware until after the fiscal year is over, there is plenty of announced software to have a lot of momentum this year and more to come that we don't know about.
I wouldn't rule out early 2024 entirely but I feel like they're gonna coast for another year and change.
The thing about momentum is that as you slow to an eventual stop, it takes more and more energy to accelerate again. The Wii to Wii U transition is a perfect example of this:
Had Wii U of released in 2010 (as Wii HD), it absolutely would have been a hit, people were looking for a Wii HD that year, 3rd parties wanted to support Nintendo's platform, and Wii U technology was from 2009, so it would not have been outdated, and fallen more into people's expectations, not to mention the following generation was 3 years off at that point, so plenty of time to build a market. This was the optimal time to launch Wii's successor. It's also worth noting that the iPad released in April of 2010, so Wii HD having a tablet controller would have been a huge boon, instead of a puzzling move.
50M+ units sold.
Had Wii U of released in 2011 with say Skyward Sword as a cross gen game, it would have picked up a lot more 3rd party support as next gen was still 2 years away, Nintendo would still need heavy hitters, but a NSMBU would have done a lot better as a Spring 2012 release, rather than a launch title. Gamecube and Wii games were also very easy to port over in HD, which is something Nintendo could have embraced a bit earlier, but this was a much harder time to get Wii U off the ground, however with a better launch title, next gen being further away, and Wii branding still strong.
~30M units sold.
Wii U released in 2012, we know what happened, but Wii branding did it absolutely no favors, the tablet idea was tethered and unappealing at this point, smart phones were also in everyone's hands, which made the 6.2inch Wii U gamepad screen, relatively redundant as a media/web browsing device. 3DS was also in real trouble in 2011, and shifted development to the handheld from it's console development.
13.65M units sold.
Switch 2 would have been perfectly positioned with TotK as a launch title this spring, Switch momentum has been slowing for 2 years now, and while it is still strong this year, it will continue to slow, from 15M this year to 10M? maybe 12M units? next year. Switch is running out of big IPs to sell on the system, mainline 3D Mario is next, and if that isn't saved for Switch 2's launch, the Switch 2 won't have a game of that caliber to launch with, and while next gen consoles are 3 years away next year, if Switch launches holiday 2024, there will be only 2 years before expectations of new console rumors and announced will start making the rounds, because 2027 or 2028 will be the target for next gen consoles. Nintendo also needs to release the next Switch soon for big upcoming 3rd party games, like DQ12, MH6 and Mass Effect 4. Nintendo will only continue to tell consumers those games are not for their products if they release without Switch ports because of performance of the device. Sure it will outsell the PS2, but Switch 2 will launch with little to no momentum behind it in late 2024 and especially into 2025.
Spring 2023 is the best time now to launch Switch 2, Switch momentum will last through the end of this year, and everyone will be ready for the next device starting January 1st 2024, Zelda DLC will likely come in Spring 2024, Mario 3D can come in Spring 2024 to launch alongside the system, and Nintendo can release Prime 4 in 2024's holidays, look at a new Mario Kart in early 2025 and maybe a new Smash in holiday 2025 (7 years after Ultimate's release).
EDIT: About Celine's post below, another piece of information people in this thread might not be entirely aware of is that Famicom's Anniversary is July 15th, where it will turn 40 years old. It will be 40 years old in 4 hours. While I don't expect Drake news in 4 hours, they will likely mention something about Famicom or their console business in the next 24 hours.
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