StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (New Staff Post, Please read)

[D36]

So major POKEMON!!! expansion (and Kart DLC) dropping in the fall means nothing to continue carrying the original Switch but the expansion for xenoblade chronicles in the first half is another nail in the coffin implying a 2023 successor make it make sense.

That's not what's being said. It's the front loading of all these announcements that's giving people pause. We still don't know about any first-party software for 2H e except Pikmin 4 and some more DLC.

 

[MadMarvainy]

It would be hilarious if the next Switch ended up being named Switch Pro. . Afters all the years of speculation, then reports that it was a thing but got canceled, and then in late 2023 Nintendo releases the all new Switch Pro.

I have a feeling that Switch 4K might be the name or something along those lines.

Super Switch would be a great callback to the SNES if they decide on that.

Switch Pro wouldn't surprise me though.

But something tells me they won't put anything before the Switch name. We have Switch, Switch Lite, and Switch OLED so far for the Switch family of devices, and even though this will be a generational leap from the Switch current hardware I don't think they treat it that much differently aside from marketing as the upgrade they want people moving towards.

 

[Look over there]

It’s plausible, and by that I mean that it’s worth entertaining the idea of it not that it is guaranteed in this case that Drake is on 5nm (4N) due to the nature of 5nm being long lived from TSMC and that’s their plans for it. Though 7N is also going to be a long lived node and will not be retired anytime soon.


Samsung hasn’t really committed to such a thing, and so far only Nvidia is using the 8N process to my knowledge. Likewise about the commitment thing on their longevity.


I of course could be very wrong about this, but I don’t think discounting 4N as a possibility, even if it’s a low possibility.


Perhaps Nintendo and nVidia managed to acquire >2x efficiency on the same node with unique features to Drake that makes 8N work along with it being very dense, and thus outside the density of 8N. Who knows? The world of semi is complicated and more out of my depth truly.


Like for example, AMD was able to “squeeze” the zen 4 Cores and make them small, and be Zen 4C. And you can have the regular Z4 and the small Z4C cores on the Same die with different densities I think. Though I don’t know the exact specifics with that one and I believe it brings complexity and cost to the design.

2x efficiency improvement on the same node is pretty extreme, especially if you're going from 'already mature after multiple refinements' to 'every last drop squeezed out of it'.
Consider Intel's infamous involuntarily-extraordinarily long lived 14nm node. Per Intel themselves (from here):

+20% perf@iso-leakage from the base version that Broadwell used to the final version used by Cooper Lake.

What the right side of that slide is describing for '10 nm' is the improvement that 10nm SuperFin (what Tiger Lake used) made over... I believe the version of 10nm that Ice Lake used, as Intel prefers to pretend that Cannon Lake didn't happen.
...ugh, fine, yea, if you add in 10 Enhanced SuperFin/7 (Alder Lake) and 7 Ultra (Raptor Lake) too, you probably get at least high 10's % increase over the first SuperFin, but I'm not sure if I want to go further and count their improvements against Ice Lake's 10nm.

As for Zen 4c, I'm assuming that they're trading in max frequency to get higher density. At least, the impression I have is that the two are traded for each other. For example, see TSMC's FinFlex offering for N3E:

 

[LukasManak22]

None of Nintendo's choices for release scheduling this year are that weird in isolation (except shadow dropping Prime Remastered, that was pretty weird), but together they form quite a strange pattern where they're all strangely clustered together. They're clearing their slate in a way they just don't do normally.

Apart from Xenoblade DLC, that really got me off guard (would still probably be June/July at the latest). I don't see anything that is clustered as you say. Engage in January (this was supposed to be out way earlier). Kirby - February, Bayo - March. Advance Wars in this week (was supposed to be out way earlier, and it's not even releasing in Japan). These are not really as close is it might seem, it actually follows the "something at each month". If, for example the last 2 waves of Mario Kart DLC were to be released in June or something, it would get sucpicious but we are not at that point right now.

It should not be that surprising for people that it's launching in April.

Xenoblade Chronicles 3 Soundtrack Out July, Will Include Volume 4 DLC Music

Is Volume 4 coming soon, then?

www.nintendolife.com

 

[antonz]

Sales are declining at a pretty steady pace this year. Japan is down nearly 35% YOY. We are seeing European Sales declining upwards of 18-20% so far. This coming from a Company who said they expect to sell more hardware this year than last year. That is not happening with the way sales are going right now and they have not shown anything that is going to reverse a large dropping trend let alone spur YOY growth.

I mean according to Media sources they are more or less lying with internal claims sales were down last year due to shortages in components and that this year Hardware Production should be higher due to no more shortages. The only way this even comes remotely true is if they have new hardware they are currently at least mixing in with the current hardware since nothings been announced so far. Switch is not going to suddenly have large growth this year.

 

[Hocot8]

Oh I'm not driving myself crazy haha.I think... This is all fun for me. The hardware will come when it comes, Drake or otherwise, and until then I'll just enjoy the games that I have to play and speculate/hype irresponsibly along the way.

Give it time haha

 

[Goblin_knight]

In terms of major releases i'm pretty sure TOTK will be the switches swan song regardless of what Nintendo still has left for the switch. Unless Prime 4 actually manages to release this year which I highly doubt.

 

[Pokemaniac]

Apart from Xenoblade DLC, that really got me off guard (would still probably be June/July at the latest). I don't see anything that is clustered as you say. Engage in January (this was supposed to be out way earlier). Kirby - February, Bayo - March. Advance Wars in this week (was supposed to be out way earlier, and it's not even releasing in Japan). These are not really as close is it might seem, it actually follows the "something at each month". If, for example the last 2 waves of Mario Kart DLC were to be released in June or something, it would get sucpicious but we are not at that point right now.

It should not be that surprising for people that it's launching in April.

Xenoblade Chronicles 3 Soundtrack Out July, Will Include Volume 4 DLC Music

Is Volume 4 coming soon, then?

www.nintendolife.com

With the near total absence of any H2 stuff, it's absolutely quite clustered. The very neat division between H1 and H2 is abnormal. Instead of announcing any H2 stuff, they just keep packing more into H1.

 

[lattjeful]

Give it time haha

I've been around since this thread was on the other site. I know that hasn't been nearly as long as others in the thread, but if the days leading up to the OLED announcement, and the subsequent thread-wide meltdown that plagued it for like two months didn't make me lose it, nothing will.

 

[LukasManak22]

With the near total absence of any H2 stuff, it's absolutely quite clustered. The very neat division between H1 and H2 is abnormal. Instead of announcing any H2 stuff, they just keep packing more into H1.

I don't think this is the issue at all. In February they could have dated some of their H2 games. Did they have to? No. It seems like Tears of the Kingdom is their clear focus for now. I am with Nate on this one.

 

[D36]

I don't think this is the issue at all. In February they could have dated some of their H2 games. Did they have to? No. It seems like Tears of the Kingdom is their clear focus for now. I am with Nate on this one.

I don't think having one big game necessitates holding off on announcing later titles, especially with something as big as Zelda. I can only understand that if they were announcing say, a 2D Mario and Metroid Prime 4 at a later date. The former doesn't need that long of a hype cycle and the other could be properly shown off once the dust on Remastered settles; very justifiable to hold those off and other games, in that case. It'd be even more justifiable if they came with new hardware (though, imo, we'd be getting a 3D Mario first, as that could be a great showpiece for said hardware, should it be exclusive).

 

[Tentacle-tropes]

Sales are declining at a pretty steady pace this year. Japan is down nearly 35% YOY. We are seeing European Sales declining upwards of 18-20% so far. This coming from a Company who said they expect to sell more hardware this year than last year. That is not happening with the way sales are going right now and they have not shown anything that is going to reverse a large dropping trend let alone spur YOY growth.

I mean they more or less lying with internal claims sales were down last year due to shortages in components and that this year Hardware Production would be higher due to no more shortages. The only way this even comes remotely true is if they have new hardware they are currently at least mixing in with the current hardware since nothings been announced so far. Switch is not going to suddenly have large growth this year.

Where are either of these bolded statements coming from because it is not reflected at all in their latest fiscal report or Q&A

 

[HankyPanky]

Buncle looks good to me!

Switch Pro (lol) lets go!

Whether it's a Pro or a 2 that's up to you!

#team2023

 

[D36]

Current mood:

 

[NateDrake]

Sales are declining at a pretty steady pace this year. Japan is down nearly 35% YOY. We are seeing European Sales declining upwards of 18-20% so far. This coming from a Company who said they expect to sell more hardware this year than last year. That is not happening with the way sales are going right now and they have not shown anything that is going to reverse a large dropping trend let alone spur YOY growth.

I mean they more or less lying with internal claims sales were down last year due to shortages in components and that this year Hardware Production would be higher due to no more shortages. The only way this even comes remotely true is if they have new hardware they are currently at least mixing in with the current hardware since nothings been announced so far. Switch is not going to suddenly have large growth this year.

Nintendo has not put out any guidance for this FY. We'll know in a few weeks whether or not the 20m figure reported by Nikkie (?) is accurate.

 

[Tentacle-tropes]

Nintendo has not put out any guidance for this FY. We'll know in a few weeks whether or not the 20m figure reported by Nikkie (?) is accurate.

It was Bloomberg & I think they were talking about the current FY since the report was mentioning Nintendo raising from 19mil to 21mil. However Nintendo dropped to 18mil after the Q3 results. We’ll see what their new guidance is for the next FY but I wouldn’t be shocked if it was similar to this one at ~18mil

 

[Pokemaniac]

I don't think this is the issue at all. In February they could have dated some of their H2 games. Did they have to? No. It seems like Tears of the Kingdom is their clear focus for now. I am with Nate on this one.

That's not what they normally do, though, which is why it's notable.

 

[Corim]

I admit, I'd been leaning towards an early 2024 release date for the Switchessor. I assumed Nintendo would want to ride out the rest of the year with DLC and perhaps one or two last minute surprises after Pikmin 4. Nintendo releasing Future Redeemed so soon feels like a game changer. There's something so special in the pipeline that Nintendo doesn't feel the need to use DLC to cover for a lack of regular releases. I feel that it's logical to assume that the next console is coming out in the next six to twelve months. Nintendo clearly isn't stockpiling titles (that we know about) right now.

 

[antonz]

Nintendo has not put out any guidance for this FY. We'll know in a few weeks whether or not the 20m figure reported by Nikkie (?) is accurate.

You are right these were comments made by the press from "sources" I will edit that

 

[TLZ]

I know that naming your next gen Switch "Switch Pro" is an absolutely awful idea, but I kind of want this to happen just for the chaos.

 

[LukasManak22]

That's not what they normally do, though, which is why it's notable.

Of course, but it's not like they never done this before. If we get by mid to late June with no H2 titles announced, then yes something is cooking.

 

[squinters]

I'd love a H2 2023 release, and I am still hoping that becomes reality. But I'm not entirely convinced by the barren H2 theory. While it's true Nintendo hasn't really left an H2 this vague before, they are no strangers to announcing -> releasing big titles in under 6 months. Mario Maker 2 got 4 months. Metroid Dread got 4 months. Fire Emblem Engage got ~4/5 months.

I could see a June direct announcing/dating a speculated 2D Mario (other speculated titles include the additional Fire Emblem but that seems way too early, or the 3D DK but that seems almost too big). 2D Mario in September, MP4 in November, with some smaller releases/remasters rounding out August & October (not to mention any additional DLC) makes a solid H2 for a console in its 7th year.

Either way I'm pretty excited for the June direct. Only 2 months away, and I think it should be pretty telling. (And fingers crossed we get one this year.) It should either show some exciting titles that they believe could anchor H2, or it will be perhaps our first glimpse of the next Switch. But I can't see it being both ways, where we get a June direct that dates bigger Fall titles and then also a month later another showcase revealing Switch 2 + launch lineup for Holiday 2023. I think either June shows us the next console, or it leaves enough room in H2 with dated games that we can anticipate a showcase later in the summer, or it closes the book on 2023 for Switch 2

 

[Instro]

It was Bloomberg & I think they were talking about the current FY since the report was mentioning Nintendo raising from 19mil to 21mil. However Nintendo dropped to 18mil after the Q3 results. We’ll see what their new guidance is for the next FY but I wouldn’t be shocked if it was similar to this one at ~18mil

I would be considering the last two quarters, and where they are trending this CY.

 

[LukasManak22]

the 3D DK but that seems almost too big).

3D DK does not exist though, it's a 2D game.

 

[Pokemaniac]

Of course, but it's not like they never done this before. If we get by mid to late June with no H2 titles announced, then yes something is cooking.

They kinda haven't. We've never known this little about Nintendo's upcoming titles since the Switch launched.

 

[Tentacle-tropes]

I would be considering the last two quarters, and where they are trending this CY.

They can always revise at the quarterly meetings as we saw recently. What they can’t do is shoot big & then decrease way short.

 

[aus89]

They kinda haven't. We've never known this little about Nintendo's upcoming titles since the Switch launched.

probably 2020 we didn't know much for obvious reasons but yeah... seems like Zelda and Pikmin are a hard cut off, much in the same way that Ghost Of Tsushima and The Last Of Us Pt II were a cut off where we knew nothing beyond from Sony til they made a certain announcement...

 

[squinters]

3D DK does not exist though, it's a 2D game.

Oh really! Correct me if I'm wrong, but it used to be talked about that it would be a 3d title yeah? But now it's more speculated to be 2d?

 

[Christer]

We've never known this little about Nintendo's upcoming titles since the Switch launched

I think (mostly) everyone is in agreement that new hardware is on the horizon and it makes sense that Nintendo has shifted development resources towards providing a strong enough launch window showing.

I don’t think that the fact that we don’t know much abou H2 right now is necessarily that telling about when new hardware launches tough. To me that alone isn’t a sure sign of a holiday 23 launch. It could be that the second half of the year is a bit lackluster software wise because they are in deep development on heavy hitters for new hardware 12-18 months from now and they are saving the precious few titles they have left for og switch for summer or autumn directs.

 

[eye0h]

https://www.paladins.com/news/sunsetting-on-nintendo-switch

Paladins (Popular F2P Overwatch Clone) is now shutting down on Switch.

 

[Boxle]

https://www.paladins.com/news/sunsetting-on-nintendo-switch

Paladins (Popular F2P Overwatch Clone) is now shutting down on Switch.

The game got an expansion with new modes, but the Switch was left out due to performance. So it sounds like that was a contributing factor into lowering player base. It's a crossplay title, and for one platform to not have all game modes(TDM for example) means it's destined to fail. Prior to that, they fully supported the Switch version and were very proud of it. Hi Rez also has Paladins on Switch, and it runs well. The Switch version has parity with other versions so it's won't get shut down before others.

Well that's a bit surprising. But now this comment has aged like milk. Very interesting.

 

[Superstarxalien]

Oh really! Correct me if I'm wrong, but it used to be talked about that it would be a 3d title yeah? But now it's more speculated to be 2d?

it was always speculated to be 2d, what you were seeing talk of was a tangentially-related cancelled 3d dk game

 

[carbonaxiom]

Anyone here who has not read the following quoted post should do so now:

On the subject of whether Nintendo's current release schedule (or lack thereof) is unprecedented, we can look at it from a data driven perspective. Specifically, Nintendo currently has four announced, but not yet released, titles for the Switch. Is that an unusually low number?

Because it's a Sunday and have nothing better to do, I've taken a list of physical Switch games published by Nintendo (specifically this one) and quickly tallied up the announcement date and release date of each one. I should stress that I wasn't thoroughly validating every date I used, it was mostly just "whatever Wikipedia says", so it's entirely possible that some dates are wrong, but being off by a few days here or there shouldn't really matter in this analysis.

Because of inevitable disagreements over what constitutes a "Nintendo game", I've broken the list up into two sets. The first one consists only of games published exclusively by Nintendo. This excludes games which are published by Nintendo only in some regions, and Pokemon games, which are co-published between Nintendo and Pokemon Co. The second set includes all games, including those published by Nintendo only in certain regions or co-published.

With the data, I can calculate, for a given date, how many titles have been announced, but not yet released. I've done this for the first day of every month since February 2017. Here's the table for the strict sub-set of games exclusively published by Nintendo:

        Jan    Feb    Mar    Apr    May    Jun    Jul    Aug    Sep    Oct    Nov    Dec
2017           8      8      6      5      5      7      6      6      7      6      4
2018    6      11     10     11     9      8      7      7      7      8      7      7
2019    7      6      9      9      8      8      8      7      6      11     9      9
2020    8      8      8      7      7      7      7      6      7      9      8      8
2021    8      6      11     11     10     8      9      8      8      9      7      7
2022    6      6      9      8      7      7      6      5      5      7      6      6
2023    7      6      5      4

As we can see there's some seasonality to it (unsurprisingly), and the start of April is usually the peak, although we're now entering April with the lowest number of unreleased Nintendo published titles we've ever been aware of. The number did hit 4 before, in December 2017, although quite a large number of games were announced in the following January. With Advance Wars releasing this month, and ToTK releasing in May, the number is due to hit 2 by the start of June, unless Nintendo announces any new titles in April or May (which historically they don't typically do).

The table for games which Nintendo has had any involvement in publishing is below. I'd argue that this is the more relevant one, as although Nintendo doesn't unilaterally choose when to announce or release these games, they are involved in the process, and they're titles that Nintendo makes space for both in their announcement and release schedule. This includes Pokemon games, Hyrule/Fire Emblem Warriors games, and games like SMT:V and Octopath Traveller.

        Jan    Feb    Mar    Apr    May    Jun    Jul    Aug    Sep    Oct    Nov    Dec
2017           12     12     10     9      9      14     13     13     13     12     10
2018    12     18     16     17     15     17     18     16     16     16     15     13
2019    11     10     13     14     13     13     12     11     10     13     11     10
2020    10     10     10     9      9      9      9      8      9      13     12     11
2021    10     8      15     15     14     12     14     13     13     14     12     10
2022    9      8      14     12     11     11     9      7      7      9      7      6
2023    7      6      5      4

The drop off here is even more stark. There are currently only a third as many announced titles as there were at the same time last year, and less than half as many as even the quietest period of 2020. Again, this number is due to drop to 2 titles by the start of June, unless Nintendo announce any new titles in the meantime.

So, is this unprecedented? I'd argue so. Even if we want to be strict about what we count as Nintendo-published games, we currently know about fewer games in April 2023 than we have at the same time in any previous year, by a good margin. If we also include games which Nintendo wasn't the sole published for, the drop off is more dramatic, down by two thirds year on year and down by more than half compared to the pandemic-influenced drop in 2020.

Can Nintendo announce their 2H23 games in June? Absolutely, and they've typically announced several games each June for release the same year. If they wait until June, though, they will be going into the month with only two unreleased games on their roster. One releasing the following month, and another that Nintendo has barely mentioned since rebooting development over four years ago. That would absolutely be unprecedented.

Incidentally, as a point of comparison, at the start of April 2016, when Wii U was on its last legs prior to the announcement of the Switch, Nintendo had exactly four games announced for the Wii U as well, plus a much larger number for the 3DS. In terms of announced titles, we probably have less insight now into what Nintendo's working on than at any point since perhaps the NES.

 

[Eclissi]

Assuming that the new console will be released no earlier than 18 months, the main questions to ask are:

1) what will come after Zelda (besides Pikmin 4, Xeno 3 DLC, MP4, and minor games like Rain Code) to maintain momentum?

2) If in order to maintain momentum, Nintendo churned out other big names such as a Mario, a Pokemon, an Animal Crossing, a DK... What will it leave for the Switch 2 first year line up?

So, let's remove the Xeno 3 DLC from point 1 as well...

 

[DariliumA]

Anyone here who has not read the following quoted post should do so now:

I saw someone say « But that’s because Bayonetta, Zelda and Prime 4 were taken into account and now most of those games are released so it makes sense the count is lower » and I was absolutely flabbergasted. This logic literally proves the point that there’s just no games announced.

 

[ziggyrivers]

I have a feeling that Switch 4K might be the name or something along those lines.

Wouldn’t surprise me. Nintendo names their products that highlight the features. The Nintendo Switch 4k wouldn’t be that far fetched of an idea
—————

Whether or not the lack of software for the second half is because of new hardware, it’s still very suspicious that they’re entering the latter half of the year in this state. So let’s turn the speculation from new hardware to the classic Direct: when is the Direct coming? xD June?

Also, it’s funny I’ll be getting a Switch 2 before I finally get a PS5… LMAOO

 

[manfromthedam]

I wish I liked Xenoblade. Capable and passionate team, regular quality releases. It's just so not my thing .

Also, Zelda turned out to be an excellent smoke screen for whatever happens in H2 didn't it? mAyBe ThAt WaS tHe PlAn AlL aLoNg!1

 

[ziggyrivers]

I wish I liked Xenoblade.

I really like the series. Ever since Operation Rainfall xD I just never got to finished Xeno 1 nor 2. I really wanna buy the HD Remaster of 1, finish it and then go aaall the way to Xeno 3. Xeno 1 Deluxe might be the second game I get with the $100 digital eShop voucher.

Also, Zelda turned out to be an excellent smoke screen for whatever happens in H2 didn't it?

Haha good point. But, the game’s marketing only just recently started aggressively marketing. They could have easily done a general Direct before that and reveal some 2H titles

 

[Bonejack]

I wish I liked Xenoblade. Capable and passionate team, regular quality releases. It's just so not my thing .

Also, Zelda turned out to be an excellent smoke screen for whatever happens in H2 didn't it? mAyBe ThAt WaS tHe PlAn AlL aLoNg!1

At least listen to the OSTs, i'm sure you can get some enjoyment out of them. ;D

 

[eye0h]

I wish I liked Xenoblade. Capable and passionate team, regular quality releases. It's just so not my thing .

Also, Zelda turned out to be an excellent smoke screen for whatever happens in H2 didn't it? mAyBe ThAt WaS tHe PlAn AlL aLoNg!1

Try definitive edition if it goes on sale. It could hook you.

 

[manfromthedam]

At least listen to the OSTs, i'm sure you can get some enjoyment out of them. ;D

I have! It's OST of 2022 as far as I'm concerned - the budget for the music alone must've been astronomical. And then it's also old-school and melodic as heck, just as I like it .

 

[GhostBolt]

Early 2024 for next Switch imo

 

[Dekuman]

Was the Xenoblade 3 DLC expected to launch this early? My impressionw as it was speculated as a H2 release to fill gaps. If not expected, why is Nintendo frontloading again?

 

[ILikeFeet]

Was the Xenoblade 3 DLC expected to launch this early? My impressionw as it was speculated as a H2 release to fill gaps. If not expected, why is Nintendo frontloading again?

I don't think many people expected it before Zelda. The soundtrack was dated for July, so I think people expected june

 

[Hosermess]

The person is a retail buyer for video game stores. A.k.a. the buyer uncle that we discussed a few times previously. Unlike the factory uncles, he posted very publicly on Twitter and the people in the industry know who he is. For those reasons, his tweets are extremely vague to avoid getting into trouble. In this case I don’t think that he meant the new model would literally be named “Switch PRO” (he also used the term “next gen” just a few days ago), but hinting that a more powerful model is coming (or so I hope).

Eh I don't think he knows anything really (at the moment anyway). He's probably just out here using "patterns" and logic for his speculation like most people here.



"Nintendo's next-generation consoles will have Zelda, Mario, and Splatoon at launch, but if a new Zelda game is coming out now, I'll talk to wholesalers and manufacturers about when the next-generation consoles will be released."

 

[Bonejack]

Seriously though ... why has no one asked Yuji Horii yet?

He didn't give a fuck spoiling/leaking the Switch with his DQ 11 talk, i say someone should try their luck and ask him!

 

[LukasManak22]

Seriously though ... why has no one asked Yuji Horii yet?

He didn't give a fuck spoiling/leaking the Switch with his DQ 11 talk, i say someone should try their luck and ask him!

What he actually spoiled though? They only confirmed the game will release for NX. It was Ishihara from the Pokemon Company who basically said what the NX is.

 

[eye0h]

Was the Xenoblade 3 DLC expected to launch this early? My impressionw as it was speculated as a H2 release to fill gaps. If not expected, why is Nintendo frontloading again?

Easy answer is that Monolith Devs have been working hard, sitting on it for a while and it was decided by corporate that there isn't really a bad time to release it. There is however, a more dark and sinister conclusion...

My brain rot headcanon is that they want all monolith fans tunnelvision focused on their new IP launching with the new console

* - *

 

[Guaraná]

On the subject of whether Nintendo's current release schedule (or lack thereof) is unprecedented, we can look at it from a data driven perspective. Specifically, Nintendo currently has four announced, but not yet released, titles for the Switch. Is that an unusually low number?

Because it's a Sunday and have nothing better to do, I've taken a list of physical Switch games published by Nintendo (specifically this one) and quickly tallied up the announcement date and release date of each one. I should stress that I wasn't thoroughly validating every date I used, it was mostly just "whatever Wikipedia says", so it's entirely possible that some dates are wrong, but being off by a few days here or there shouldn't really matter in this analysis.

Because of inevitable disagreements over what constitutes a "Nintendo game", I've broken the list up into two sets. The first one consists only of games published exclusively by Nintendo. This excludes games which are published by Nintendo only in some regions, and Pokemon games, which are co-published between Nintendo and Pokemon Co. The second set includes all games, including those published by Nintendo only in certain regions or co-published.

With the data, I can calculate, for a given date, how many titles have been announced, but not yet released. I've done this for the first day of every month since February 2017. Here's the table for the strict sub-set of games exclusively published by Nintendo:

        Jan    Feb    Mar    Apr    May    Jun    Jul    Aug    Sep    Oct    Nov    Dec
2017           8      8      6      5      5      7      6      6      7      6      4
2018    6      11     10     11     9      8      7      7      7      8      7      7
2019    7      6      9      9      8      8      8      7      6      11     9      9
2020    8      8      8      7      7      7      7      6      7      9      8      8
2021    8      6      11     11     10     8      9      8      8      9      7      7
2022    6      6      9      8      7      7      6      5      5      7      6      6
2023    7      6      5      4

As we can see there's some seasonality to it (unsurprisingly), and the start of April is usually the peak, although we're now entering April with the lowest number of unreleased Nintendo published titles we've ever been aware of. The number did hit 4 before, in December 2017, although quite a large number of games were announced in the following January. With Advance Wars releasing this month, and ToTK releasing in May, the number is due to hit 2 by the start of June, unless Nintendo announces any new titles in April or May (which historically they don't typically do).

The table for games which Nintendo has had any involvement in publishing is below. I'd argue that this is the more relevant one, as although Nintendo doesn't unilaterally choose when to announce or release these games, they are involved in the process, and they're titles that Nintendo makes space for both in their announcement and release schedule. This includes Pokemon games, Hyrule/Fire Emblem Warriors games, and games like SMT:V and Octopath Traveller.

        Jan    Feb    Mar    Apr    May    Jun    Jul    Aug    Sep    Oct    Nov    Dec
2017           12     12     10     9      9      14     13     13     13     12     10
2018    12     18     16     17     15     17     18     16     16     16     15     13
2019    11     10     13     14     13     13     12     11     10     13     11     10
2020    10     10     10     9      9      9      9      8      9      13     12     11
2021    10     8      15     15     14     12     14     13     13     14     12     10
2022    9      8      14     12     11     11     9      7      7      9      7      6
2023    7      6      5      4

The drop off here is even more stark. There are currently only a third as many announced titles as there were at the same time last year, and less than half as many as even the quietest period of 2020. Again, this number is due to drop to 2 titles by the start of June, unless Nintendo announce any new titles in the meantime.

So, is this unprecedented? I'd argue so. Even if we want to be strict about what we count as Nintendo-published games, we currently know about fewer games in April 2023 than we have at the same time in any previous year, by a good margin. If we also include games which Nintendo wasn't the sole published for, the drop off is more dramatic, down by two thirds year on year and down by more than half compared to the pandemic-influenced drop in 2020.

Can Nintendo announce their 2H23 games in June? Absolutely, and they've typically announced several games each June for release the same year. If they wait until June, though, they will be going into the month with only two unreleased games on their roster. One releasing the following month, and another that Nintendo has barely mentioned since rebooting development over four years ago. That would absolutely be unprecedented.

Incidentally, as a point of comparison, at the start of April 2016, when Wii U was on its last legs prior to the announcement of the Switch, Nintendo had exactly four games announced for the Wii U as well, plus a much larger number for the 3DS. In terms of announced titles, we probably have less insight now into what Nintendo's working on than at any point since perhaps the NES.

damn you're good

 

[Bonejack]

What he actually spoiled though? They only confirmed the game will release for NX. It was Ishihara from the Pokemon Company who basically said what the NX is.

Well then just ask about DQ XII hitting Switch 2 and see what happens! ;D