XC2 was a much more controversial title, and XC
E was a remaster/partial remake, which have never been in the running for GOTY. 2022 is a much weaker year and isn't burdened by either of those things. Doesn't really guarantee anything, but this year is by far its best chance to get recognition.
I don't believe a single racing game has ever been nominated for GOTY (including Forza Horizon 5 last year, which was the highest rated game of 2021), and as said above, The Last of Us Part I would have to buck a lot of trends to get a nomination. I wouldn't expect either of those.