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That sounds accurate, though COVID certainly accelerated the process. I imagine that, if the pandemic didn't happen, we might have at least gotten the full SMB2 theme, just as how we likely would have gotten those Animal Crossing updates sooner.So what I'm getting is that they banked on MM2's evergreen-ness to support yet another GaaS model. It seems that the audience expected the GaaS model to support the game's evergreen-ness instead.
It really does seem that Nintendo is particularly awful with the GaaS model, especially in the past few years. Sure, the vast majority of GaaS implementations even outside of Nintendo waste what could be a great idea, but with the Mario spin-offs in particular going from solid, content-filled side games circa the Wii years to barebones husks, there's clearly a lot more a GaaS Mario spin-off needs to do than just coast on the Mario branding.
When will all these GaaS abusers, Nintendo and others, realize that the model only really works for one-game franchises like Minecraft and Fortnite? AFAIK, the traditional sequel model and the GaaS model just don't mix.
I feel like the only true success story for free update GAAS Nintendo games is Splatoon, with both it and its sequel working well on that model. I mean, I wouldn't say the older Mario sports games were oozing with content, but they've been a bit empty lately, though given that it's honestly a modes problem more than anything, the GAAS model that prioritized more characters didn't exactly help. I'd say Golf benefitted the most from its updates - New Donk City in particular was a fantastic DLC course. Honestly, though, that's a complaint I can leverage for most of the GAAS Nintendo games - the updates add more but don't address core flaws. ARMS updates didn't solve its lack of modes, Kirby Star Allies added more but didn't make the main adventure's lacking level design any more interesting, New Horizons got its holidays and a meaty paid expansion but that didn't make villager interactions any more interesting, and so on.
Mario Maker 2 is an interesting case because its problem was twofold: the promised online multiplayer was not at launch and was rough, and updates weren't anywhere as frequent as with the first game (wonder how much of that was resources and how much of that was tied to the multiplayer...), which probably didn't do well to keep retention. Add the need for more resources in dev and COVID swinging in, and I can see why they chose not to keep going with Maker 2, as much as it pains me.