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The Booster Course Pass release has coincided with the "new"/non-prefix track for two waves now (Ninja Hideaway return for wave 1 and Sky-High Sundae release for wave 2), so I believe the return of Merry Mountain to Tour will coincide with the release of Merry Mountain in 8 Deluxe too.I remember there being a very similar sentiment during the wait for Joker and then Hero in the first Fighters Pass. We then got Banjo-Kazooie 5 weeks later, and Terry 9 weeks following that. Using a single sample size to guess how long we'll need to wait is not a good strategy when it comes to Nintendo. Maybe it does take until December, but I don't believe that the wait for Wave 2 indicates much of anything.
Also think people are reading into Merry Mountain too much here. Yeah, a Christmas track around the holidays is fun and all, but it's certainly not a necessity. The other tracks may just not be ready yet.
It first appeared around the Holiday season in Tour on:
December 2nd, 2020
December 1st, 2021
(in CEST)
That means, this year it would come November 30th. A rollout for Mario Kart 8 Deluxe the Thursday before would be the most likely, meaning we will get wave 3 November 24th. Trailer notice November 17th?