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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (New Staff Post, Please read)

While Chris1964 is not an insider, he is a incredibly valuable member of the sales community.

It is not by chance that many people flocked to installbase after the forum's creation. He is knowledgeable and smart. Everything he says is backed by decades of experience in the field.
 
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My understanding of Chris1964’s commentary is that FY2023 projections from Nintendo may provide an indication of when new hardware is announced/released if their projection is lower than anticipated even if accounting for current manufacturing challenges. And if it isn’t all that low, FY2023 ending March 31 2023 is out the window for release.
 
The moment we all start talking affirmatively about the revision not hitting in 2022 is the moment I duck out of this thread :|
 
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I will say, the production/info for Dane does moreso indicate a 2022/early 2023 release rather than a Late 2023/2024+ release.

Dane was at the point Kopite7kimi knew of it having a proper codename and uArch basis back in July.

I doubt NVIDIA and Nintendo would have the Dane SoC lying around more or less for almost/over 2 years (As considering Dane is part of the Orin Family, it likely is about to/has hit Tape-Out as Orin comes out literally next month)

Not to mention Mid-2023 being when market interest for Switch would start to dip and you wanting to release consoles like this while interest is still high, so a 2H 2022/Early 2023 release makes more sense from that perspective.

Also BOTW2 is still on target for 2022, and even if it were delayed it would likely be delayed to March 2023, so oh hey, the two most likely releases for Switch 2/Pro/Dane we've had.

We still have way more evidence/support for a 2H 2022/March 2023 release for the system than anything later.
 
I have always believed that Dane will be released in H2 2022 as Switch Pro, but these days I feel it will be released in March 2023 as next-gen.
It seems to me that there are plenty of great titles for 2023 without having to delay Zelda to 2023.
 
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If Nintendo is honestly going to push off hardware like some folks suggest, they may as well wait for an Atlan-based SoC that could be ready for 2025. But they're not doing that.
 
If Nintendo is honestly going to push off hardware like some folks suggest, they may as well wait for an Atlan-based SoC that could be ready for 2025. But they're not doing that.
We honestly don't know what they're doing. I don't know if I can vouch for koplite's "Dane" claims and take them as gospel considering the shakiness of the situation with the chip shortage. I have a feeling they might be willing to bite the bullet and move the new project/chip onto a newer, more available node seeing as how they won't even be able to meet any targets with the current Switch's more "mature" node..
 
If Nintendo is honestly going to push off hardware like some folks suggest, they may as well wait for an Atlan-based SoC that could be ready for 2025. But they're not doing that.
We are in unprecedented times, so nothing is off the table but I agree that’s unlikely.

At best they release Danes Mariko type revision as the launch model.
 
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If I am not mistaken, Nintendo communicates around that time of the year their expectations to retailers for the year to come.

They are expecting a very big 2022 apparently, both for HW and SW, with a lot of OLED sold. Hence Chris' comments.
 
We honestly don't know what they're doing. I don't know if I can vouch for koplite's "Dane" claims and take them as gospel considering the shakiness of the situation with the chip shortage. I have a feeling they might be willing to bite the bullet and move the new project/chip onto a newer, more available node seeing as how they won't even be able to meet any targets with the current Switch's more "mature" node..
What's more available than 8nm? Everything else is more desirable or shit (Samsung 7n/5n/4n).
 
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If I am not mistaken, Nintendo communicates around that time of the year their expectations to retailers for the year to come.

They are expecting a very big 2022 apparently, both for HW and SW, with a lot of OLED sold. Hence Chris' comments.
Thanks for clarifying Lelouch! Seems in-line with the expected software they plan to release in 22. Now I understand why Chris thinks the timeline for the next Switch is 23 at minimum(Which I actually agree with).
 
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If I am not mistaken, Nintendo communicates around that time of the year their expectations to retailers for the year to come.

They are expecting a very big 2022 apparently, both for HW and SW, with a lot of OLED sold. Hence Chris' comments.
What I'm confused about though is them expecting big hardware sales doesn't at all suggest there isn't a new model coming...
 
Would people buy the oled in mass, if Dane was out? All depends on pricing I suppose:
I guess it depends on what exactly retailers were told.

If it was something like:

"We expect Switch hardware to be very popular this year thanks to our software lineup and the new OLED model"

Then that's very non specific about the amount and types of hardware they expect to move.

If it was more like:

"We expect the Switch OLED Model to sell very well in 2022 thanks to our software lineup" then that's much more specific and would indeed imply no additional hardware.
 
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What I'm confused about though is them expecting big hardware sales doesn't at all suggest there isn't a new model coming...
Software drives hardware, though. If they’re confident in 2022s software, with Splatoon 3, Zelda, Pokémon, everything unannounced, then perhaps they’re confident it’ll help drive more hardware like the OLED. This year wasn’t particular filled to the brim with lots of big, original Nintendo titles.
 
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I don't know how reliable Chris1964 from the Install Base Forum is, but Chris1964 believes that Nintendo won't be launching the DLSS model* in holiday 2022 and potentially early 2023 since there's apparently no mention of new hardware in Nintendo's 2022 forecast.

Even if he does have some decent contacts from all his years of experience, any whispers he may have heard would be about a work-in-progress forecast that won't be finalized/announced for ~5 months.
 
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I have a feeling they might be willing to bite the bullet and move the new project/chip onto a newer, more available node seeing as how they won't even be able to meet any targets with the current Switch's more "mature" node..
TSMC's more advanced process nodes (TSMC's N6 process node or more advanced) are unfortunately probably not more available, considering the ridiculously huge demand from many of TSMC's customers, such as AMD, Intel, Mediatek, Qualcomm, etc.

Samsung's 7LPP process node seems to have yield problems, considering that Andrei Frumusanu mentioned that the binning of the Exynos 990, which is fabricated using Samsung's 7LPP process node, is quite bad, and the chips that are currently being fabricated using Samsung's 7LPP process node are relatively, low volume chips (IBM Power10, IBM Telum, and the rumoured HW 4.0). And apparently, Nvidia originally planned on using Samsung's 7LPP process node for the fabrication of consumer Ampere GPUs. And considering Dane's probably a high volume chip, yield problems are very problematic.

And Samsung's 6LPP process node is probably not available in general, especially for Samsung's customers, especially with no chips from Samsung or other companies publicly announced to be fabricated using Samsung's 6LPP process node.

Samsung's 5LPE process node is still being used for the fabrication of the Snapdragon 888 and the Snapdragon 8cx Gen 3.

Qualcomm's rumoured to use a custom variant of Samsung's 5LPP process node called Samsung's 4LPX process node for the fabrication of the Snapdragon 8 Gen 1. And the Exynos 2200(?), which is rumoured to be fabricated using Samsung's 4LPE process node, is rumoured to have yield problems.
 
Quoted by: SiG
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TSMC's more advanced process nodes (TSMC's N6 process node or more advanced) are unfortunately probably not more available, considering the ridiculously huge demand from many of TSMC's customers, such as AMD, Intel, Mediatek, Qualcomm, etc.

Samsung's 7LPP process node seems to have yield problems, considering that Andrei Frumusanu mentioned that the binning of the Exynos 990, which is fabricated using Samsung's 7LPP process node, is quite bad, and the chips that are currently being fabricated using Samsung's 7LPP process node are relatively, low volume chips (IBM Power10, IBM Telum, and the rumoured HW 4.0). And apparently, Nvidia originally planned on using Samsung's 7LPP process node for the fabrication of consumer Ampere GPUs. And considering Dane's probably a high volume chip, yield problems are very problematic.

And Samsung's 6LPP process node is probably not available in general, especially for Samsung's customers, especially with no chips from Samsung or other companies publicly announced to be fabricated using Samsung's 6LPP process node.

Samsung's 5LPE process node is still being used for the fabrication of the Snapdragon 888 and the Snapdragon 8cx Gen 3.

Qualcomm's rumoured to use a custom variant of Samsung's 5LPP process node called Samsung's 4LPX process node for the fabrication of the Snapdragon 8 Gen 1. And the Exynos 2200(?), which is rumoured to be fabricated using Samsung's 4LPE process node, is rumoured to have yield problems.
I wonder... would they be willing to wait on those Intel fabs, or is that waaay too long into the distant future?

The chip shortage is putting a grim look at all new hardware. It's so bad I have to postpone assembling a new PC for myself.
 
I wonder... would they be willing to wait on those Intel fabs, or is that waaay to long into the distant future?
Probably the latter since Intel mentioned offering process nodes to foundry customers starting with Intel 3, which is not planned to start high volume manufacturing until 2H 2023. (And that's contingent on Intel not messing up, which is not 100% guaranteed.) And securing enough capacity for any process node is a process that realistically requires companies to plan a couple of years in advance.
 
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I don't get why there's so much concern about the chip shortage affecting plans to introduce a new model. Has any tech company had to substantially delay or cancel any product launch? Nintendo themselves just launched a new model in October.
 
I think it really depends on when the orders are placed and capacity reserved. Chip shortage is a bit of a cop out, since if they already reserved capacity, the only shortage they would be facing is limitations in expanding production, or some other chip bottleneck like RAM or NAND flash. we simply don't know anything to guess.

That said I'm always pessimistic and I'm leaning towards 2023 at the earliest now. just because Nintendo would have to lie in their financial briefing come March if they want to hide a new model coming next FY and time is running out for them to basically announce it, thought it could always be announced like the 3DS with a terse press release.
 
I think it really depends on when the orders are placed and capacity reserved. Chip shortage is a bit of a cop out, since if they already reserved capacity, the only shortage they would be facing is limitations in expanding production, or some other chip bottleneck like RAM or NAND flash. we simply don't know anything to guess.

That said I'm always pessimistic and I'm leaning towards 2023 at the earliest now. just because Nintendo would have to lie in their financial briefing come March if they want to hide a new model coming next FY and time is running out for them to basically announce it, thought it could always be announced like the 3DS with a terse press release.
An early in the year announcement wouldn't exactly be atypical. While many are expecting a very revision-like short turn around between reveal and release, Nintendo usually does give some indication new hardware is coming a bit earlier than that for new generations.
 
I wasn't following these sorts of topics way back when so the answer may already be known to everyone else, but did Nintendo's forecasts for FY2015 and FY2009 lead to insights or speculation about the New 3DS and DSi respectively? Since both of those were announced and released in the middle of the financial year, and were beefed up revisions rather than whole-hog successors, they make the best comparison assuming:

A. Dane is to Switch more like GBC is to Gameboy rather than GBA, and
B. Dane is announced in late summer or early fall for release anytime between September and March

I'd like to know how strongly we can rule out that release window if the forecast Nintendo releases in May doesn't have any signs pointing to it.
 


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If I am not mistaken, Nintendo communicates around that time of the year their expectations to retailers for the year to come.

They are expecting a very big 2022 apparently, both for HW and SW, with a lot of OLED sold. Hence Chris' comments.

Sorry if this has already been mentioned, but why does this negate the possibility of Dane releasing in this timeframe?

If Nintendo sees it as a Switch revision, not a successor (as has been mentioned many times by Nate), then would they not just lump it into the same HW sales expectations?
 
Sorry if this has already been mentioned, but why does this negate the possibility of Dane releasing in this timeframe?

If Nintendo sees it as a Switch revision, not a successor (as has been mentioned many times by Nate), then would they not just lump it into the same HW sales expectations?
because, iirc, lite and oled are delineated
 
I wasn't following these sorts of topics way back when so the answer may already be known to everyone else, but did Nintendo's forecasts for FY2015 and FY2009 lead to insights or speculation about the New 3DS and DSi respectively? Since both of those were announced and released in the middle of the financial year, and were beefed up revisions rather than whole-hog successors, they make the best comparison assuming:

A. Dane is to Switch more like GBC is to Gameboy rather than GBA, and
B. Dane is announced in late summer or early fall for release anytime between September and March

I'd like to know how strongly we can rule out that release window if the forecast Nintendo releases in May doesn't have any signs pointing to it.
with the specs we are speculating, more like GBC --> GBA scenario
 
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I don't get why there's so much concern about the chip shortage affecting plans to introduce a new model. Has any tech company had to substantially delay or cancel any product launch? Nintendo themselves just launched a new model in October.

I think people are looking at the PS5 situation with horror. Hasn't it been suggested that the use of older chips in the Switch makes the supply problems not quite as acute?
 
I think people are looking at the PS5 situation with horror. Hasn't it been suggested that the use of older chips in the Switch makes the supply problems not quite as acute?
Well first off PS5 is still selling millions. Maybe not as much as Sony hopes but I don't think they're really hurting for revenue.

Second, yes, the 8nm node Nintendo is rumored to be using is much less in demand and should have much greater volume available.

And third, Nintendo's SoC physically will be much, much smaller and therefore they'll be able to make a lot more of them than PS5 SoCs with the same amount of raw material.
 
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given GDC is in march, I think more devs will be willing to talk
If they talk about an Orion chip (modified Orion NX) that fits Dane's power profile and go in detail about the soc, it could gives us some clues... What be interesting if they announce another generation of Nvidia shields with Orion hardware. That could give it away.

We don't hear anything official unless it's from Nintendo though of course.
 
I think people are looking at the PS5 situation with horror. Hasn't it been suggested that the use of older chips in the Switch makes the supply problems not quite as acute?
There's that, but that's not a silver bullet. What is more important is that the tech that's going into Orin (and thus into Dane) isn't a totally unknown quantity before the SoC was taped out.

The SoC in PS5 was seemingly taped out before there was any actual hardware using similar RDNA2 GPUs and features (since comparable graphics cards with similar features came out around the same time as PS5), which meant Sony in particular were caught with their pants down when significant yield issues (read: of all chips produced, a percentage does not meet the specifications for the product they're intended for) on the AMD SoC (likely the RDNA2 GPU portion) have caused some significant problems in production. But unlike AMD's graphics card chips which can be binned to create cheaper entry-level GPUs in the same family, there is no binning that can occur with the PS5 SoC at this moment. And of every production run, yields are as low as 50% (half the SoCs produced are unusable in PS5 production), according to a pre-launch report by Mochizuki in 2020 over at Bloomberg (which Sony denied, cuz of course they did, but given their current worldwide stock issues relative to MS and Nintendo seems to have ultimately been correct). This is why PS5 is suffering the worst of all 3 hardware makers, as this issue was compounded by the chip shortage, since the easiest way to overcome yield issues is to amp up production, and well.... yeah.....

Orin hardware isn't using a whole lot of unknown GPU components and are making these decisions with supply challenges in mind, so therefore Nintendo would be aware of likely yield challenges with the CPU or GPU before they committed to a design and be able to engineer around those issues with Dane if need be.

TL;DR - the big advantage with the hybrid design is that you're usually a year behind production of similar more powerful chips in other hardware and can foresee production challenges well in advance of final decisions on an SoC for hardware that uses it. This is an advantage that Sony and MS, who are chasing the newest and most performant hardware in a non-portable configuration just don't get.
 
There's that, but that's not a silver bullet. What is more important is that the tech that's going into Orin (and thus into Dane) isn't a totally unknown quantity before the SoC was taped out.

The SoC in PS5 was seemingly taped out before there was any actual hardware using similar RDNA2 GPUs and features (since comparable graphics cards with similar features came out around the same time as PS5), which meant Sony in particular were caught with their pants down when significant yield issues (read: of all chips produced, a percentage does not meet the specifications for the product they're intended for) on the AMD SoC (likely the RDNA2 GPU portion) have caused some significant problems in production. But unlike AMD's graphics card chips which can be binned to create cheaper entry-level GPUs in the same family, there is no binning that can occur with the PS5 SoC at this moment. And of every production run, yields are as low as 50% (half the SoCs produced are unusable in PS5 production), according to a pre-launch report by Mochizuki in 2020 over at Bloomberg (which Sony denied, cuz of course they did, but given their current worldwide stock issues relative to MS and Nintendo seems to have ultimately been correct). This is why PS5 is suffering the worst of all 3 hardware makers, as this issue was compounded by the chip shortage, since the easiest way to overcome yield issues is to amp up production, and well.... yeah.....

Orin hardware isn't using a whole lot of unknown GPU components and are making these decisions with supply challenges in mind, so therefore Nintendo would be aware of likely yield challenges with the CPU or GPU before they committed to a design and be able to engineer around those issues with Dane if need be.

TL;DR - the big advantage with the hybrid design is that you're usually a year behind production of similar more powerful chips in other hardware and can foresee production challenges well in advance of final decisions on an SoC for hardware that uses it. This is an advantage that Sony and MS, who are chasing the newest and most performant hardware in a non-portable configuration just don't get.
Also smaller chips just get better yields in general because when one is defective, you're throwing away less of the wafer.
 
If they talk about an Orion chip (modified Orion NX) that fits Dane's power profile and go in detail about the soc, it could gives us some clues... What be interesting if they announce another generation of Nvidia shields with Orion hardware. That could give it away.

We don't hear anything official unless it's from Nintendo though of course.
Nvidia is not going to announce a Dane powered Nvidia Shield. For that exact reason.
 
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There's that, but that's not a silver bullet. What is more important is that the tech that's going into Orin (and thus into Dane) isn't a totally unknown quantity before the SoC was taped out.

The SoC in PS5 was seemingly taped out before there was any actual hardware using similar RDNA2 GPUs and features (since comparable graphics cards with similar features came out around the same time as PS5), which meant Sony in particular were caught with their pants down when significant yield issues (read: of all chips produced, a percentage does not meet the specifications for the product they're intended for) on the AMD SoC (likely the RDNA2 GPU portion) have caused some significant problems in production. But unlike AMD's graphics card chips which can be binned to create cheaper entry-level GPUs in the same family, there is no binning that can occur with the PS5 SoC at this moment. And of every production run, yields are as low as 50% (half the SoCs produced are unusable in PS5 production), according to a pre-launch report by Mochizuki in 2020 over at Bloomberg (which Sony denied, cuz of course they did, but given their current worldwide stock issues relative to MS and Nintendo seems to have ultimately been correct). This is why PS5 is suffering the worst of all 3 hardware makers, as this issue was compounded by the chip shortage, since the easiest way to overcome yield issues is to amp up production, and well.... yeah.....

Orin hardware isn't using a whole lot of unknown GPU components and are making these decisions with supply challenges in mind, so therefore Nintendo would be aware of likely yield challenges with the CPU or GPU before they committed to a design and be able to engineer around those issues with Dane if need be.

TL;DR - the big advantage with the hybrid design is that you're usually a year behind production of similar more powerful chips in other hardware and can foresee production challenges well in advance of final decisions on an SoC for hardware that uses it. This is an advantage that Sony and MS, who are chasing the newest and most performant hardware in a non-portable configuration just don't get.
The primary reason for the ps5s bad yeilds is also that Sony chose the absolute highest possible clock speed config.

Nintendos clock speeds will be by far below the chips maximum capacity, so yields will be much better.
 
An early in the year announcement wouldn't exactly be atypical. While many are expecting a very revision-like short turn around between reveal and release, Nintendo usually does give some indication new hardware is coming a bit earlier than that for new generations.
Even Switch there was only 4 months from announcement to release past the long "NX is coming" phase.
 
An early in the year announcement wouldn't exactly be atypical. While many are expecting a very revision-like short turn around between reveal and release, Nintendo usually does give some indication new hardware is coming a bit earlier than that for new generations.
Even Switch there was only 4 months from announcement to release past the long "NX is coming" phase.
Yea, the only reason Iwata announced NX when he did, was to immediately shut down all speculation that Nintendo would go fully mobile.
 
given GDC is in march, I think more devs will be willing to talk
I expect to hear some sort of leaks or info around then…. As far as Nintendo saying anything I’m thinking a couple things.

They won’t say anything to anyone (investors or otherwise) until:
A: their plans are more set in stone- to me it feels like they have a plan they want to follow but until they’re sure they can get the chips manufactured and the parts they need to make a confident projection/announcement.
B. The fiscal year is done after march.

It feels like so much is up in the air right now.
Even Switch there was only 4 months from announcement to release past the long "NX is coming" phase.

134 days
... or 4 months & 11 days to be exact 😉
 
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Yea, the only reason Iwata announced NX when he did, was to immediately shut down all speculation that Nintendo would go fully mobile.
Switch is obviously an outlier, but even the period from proper unveiling to release was longer than both Switch Lite and Switch OLED.
 
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I don’t see why Nintendo would say anything to anyone until after March of this year
It’s the yearly stock with retailers as to give them a heads up notice on what to order if I’m not mistaken.

As for the convo with the Switch, they announced that the successor was coming years in advance, they codenamed it NX, but gave a formal announcement only a few months prior to the release from it.

It wouldn’t be so different from say, announcing Switch 2 as “Project Dane” (for example) this E3, and then doing the formal E3 reveal of what project Dane is, ie the Switch 2, the following year (at E3) to which it would be released by that holiday season.


So, 2022 E3: announcement, 2023 E3: reveal, 2023 holiday: release.

I wouldn’t really consider that much of a basis for anything.
 
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Yeah they don't need to let retailers know that far in advance, assuming it's still a FY2023 product. But I think if it is indeed coming, they can't escape it by April , even a terse dry press release saying a successor is slated to launch will have to be announced because there's no way they can make annual projection sand fudge those numbers without it being known a console is coming.
 
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It would certainly be possible for the Switch to continue to sell amazingly well even with a new Switch 2 or whatever released. Now Nintendo has traditionally not really gone that route but that has more to do with Hardware dying off before a successor has really been released. Switch is obviously a very unique massively successful device and could continue to sell for Nintendo and they would likely be happy to have it continue to sell while Switch 2 or whatever it ends up as ramps up.
 
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