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Predictions Will Super Mario Bros. Wonder Beat Super Mario Odyssey To Become The Best Selling Mainline Mario Game On Switch?

Will Super Mario Bros. Wonder Beat Super Mario Oddesy To Become The Best Selling Mainline Mario Game

  • Total voters
    157
I don't think it will, but it will be damn good to see if it happens, just to shut people up about 2D not being big releases.

I would also love to see 2D Mario back in full force with new experiments and ideas, expanding the Mario franchise the same way the 3D games do.
 
James said:
I would still count the Mario Maker games as installments on par with traditional 2D Mario games though. With those in mind there really isn't a huge gap at all.
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As soon as you're willing to move the line away from just counting the titles with "Super Mario Bros." in the title as to defining what's a traditional 2D Mario game though, you then have numerous other games, e.g. Wario Land series (started as Super Mario Land 3), the various yoshi games that follow up on Super Mario World 2, all the new content in the GBA rereleases (admittedly, mostly in Super Mario advance 4: Super Mario bros 3). Several of those count at least as much as Mario Maker (i.e. not at all), which might as well be a music OST game
 
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New Super Mario Bros. Wii was announced when Wii was seeing a decrease in its sales.

In its first quarter of sales(the game released mid November in US, late November in EU and early December in Japan), the game sold 10m copies, making it, by then, the fastest selling single platform game ever.

The quarter in which NSMB Wii released (fiscal Q3 of FY ending March 2010) was the best selling quarter/holiday ever for Wii hardware.

Super Mario Bros. Wonder is gonna be the biggest multiplayer release of the Switch in 2023, as well as its biggest holiday release. Switch has an install base of 125m+, whose about 100m are active. Tears of the Kingdom acted as a system seller and is moving hardware to this day, making generally slow months have their biggest sales ever. The Super Mario Bros. Movie grossed 1 billion dollars like it was nothing, being the first 2023 to do so, and the highest grossing 2023 film to date. Super Mario Bros. Wonder is going to have the stars aligned for it that no other Mario title ever had at launch. Expecting Pokémon level first quarter sales isn't far fetched, tbh. I predict 15M in the first quarter and that feels conservative seeing what Pokémon, Smash, ACNH and TotK did.
 
James said:
I would still count the Mario Maker games as installments on par with traditional 2D Mario games though. With those in mind there really isn't a huge gap at all.
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these don have the same appeal at all.

a lot of the audience for 2d mario is casuals who just want to play a normal mario game, 2d runnig and jumping without much hoops.

mario maker is the definition of hoops to jump through.

and anyway i think wonder becomes the best selling mainline mario.
 
Djehuty said:
and anyway i think wonder becomes the best selling mainline mario.
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I would be absolutely shocked if Wonder becomes the best selling Super Mario game. Super Mario Bros. has sold over 40 million units on NES alone. It was the best selling game of all time for 20 years! Add in the ports, and the goal is even more distant. You need a New Horizons level success, and that was a game that became an international phenomenon motivated by a pandemic keeping everyone indoors and craving ways to connect with their friends and loved ones. Sure, the Mario Movie was big, but a late era release doing those kind of numbers? That would blow any metric out of the water. Not impossible but improbable, I think.
 
It could come close, but it would take quite some time to get there. New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe continues to sell well too, and that game isn't "as special" as Super Mario Bros. Wonder.
 
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Yes, easily.

2D Mario always outsells 3D Mario and NSMBU DX (a straightforward re-release) has already sold more than 15 million.

SMBW is Nintendo’s headlining game of the holidays. It should achieve 15-20 million in its first quarter, with 30-35+ million being on the cards by the end of its retail life.
 
That's going to be an interesting match.

By default, I would say 2D Mario has more potential and a broader appeal.
This time though it arrives very late in the console's lifecycle, many Switch players who didn't have a WiiU already got their 2D Mario's fix with NSMBU.
On the other hand, Switch has got huge user base now, being late in its lifecycle leaves potential for price cuts and bundling, we may also expect a popularity boost for the Movie.

So overall, I'd say it's not certain but there is a strong possibility.
 
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Still have to see more of the game because at this point it looks like a pretty fun 2D Mario game but that is still stuck with the very classic formula of "Go to the right to the flagpole".

Can't Nintendo just... I don't know, remove this flippin' SMB / NSBM, NSMB Wii, NSMB 2, NSMB U, SM3DL, SM3DW flagpole and put something new instead at the end of the levels ?
 
I think 2D Mario might even have more hardcore appeal along with casual appeal than 3D Mario, when you take your time in the Bros. games you won't make much missteps but when you try to get trough a level quickly things are going to hectic, this stands in contrast to 3D Mario where you can cheese most enemy encounters by walking right past them. How 3D Mario handles power-ups also feels scripted since they are level-based wherehas in the 2D Games they feel properly emergent due to being able to get transferred with you across levels. All in all the challenge lies more in finding the difficult stars in the 3D Games. Though Wonder looks like it will be more exploration based like Yoshi's Island.
 
0
I think Wonder's debut will be even better than Odyssey's. But actually surpassing Odyssey's total numbers before the end of this Switch's lifecycle would still be a huge deal.
 
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Voted no but the more I think about it, this game will probably be the latest 2d Mario for many years and keep selling on the next console (either being BC most certainly on in the extreme scenario, ported).
Wil sell less than Tears imo initially but will have super strong legs. 30 millions? Probably
 
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Probably not because Odyssey was really huge, and because we're so late into the Switch life style, but it'll be huge that's for sure.
Probably closer to Odyssey than what some people might think. 2D Mario is a beast.
 
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SuperKoizumi said:
Absolutely it will.
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VolcanicDynamo said:
I would be absolutely shocked if Wonder becomes the best selling Super Mario game. Super Mario Bros. has sold over 40 million units on NES alone. It was the best selling game of all time for 20 years! Add in the ports, and the goal is even more distant. You need a New Horizons level success, and that was a game that became an international phenomenon motivated by a pandemic keeping everyone indoors and craving ways to connect with their friends and loved ones. Sure, the Mario Movie was big, but a late era release doing those kind of numbers? That would blow any metric out of the water. Not impossible but improbable, I think.
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i agree to an extent its definitely more hope than expectation. however wonder passing at least 40mil would be doable.
 
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