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Predictions Will Super Mario Bros. Wonder Beat Super Mario Odyssey To Become The Best Selling Mainline Mario Game On Switch?

Will Super Mario Bros. Wonder Beat Super Mario Oddesy To Become The Best Selling Mainline Mario Game

  • Total voters
    157
I don’t think so. It’s going to sell incredibly well, for sure, but Odyssey had a 6 year headstart.
 
Depends, I voted yes but I guess it's also under the assumption it'll just keep selling in 2024 and beyond with Nintendo supposed new hardware (hopefully).
Historically speaking 2D Mario games have also sold better than their 3D counterpart (aside from the Wii U iirc with 3D World and NSMBU)

Also NSMBU Deluxe sold 15 millions and I just don't see how a brand new entry with a new visual style wouldn't be able to outdo that so I'm guessing at least 20 millions which isn't that far from Odyssey 25 millions.
 
Oh man, this is a tough one.

Historically, 2D Super Mario has been the higher seller compared to 3D Super Mario. When 3D Super Mario surpasses the number, it tends to be close (3D World), but then we have the meteoric success of NSMB and NSMBWii. Super Mario Odyssey is the game to buck that trend, but the pattern holds with the two Wii U ports (NSMBU Deluxe and SM3DW+BF). So what of Super Mario Bros. Wonder?

I think it theoretically has a shot to surpass Odyssey and follow with the historic trend, but the big thing is that it's a late era release on a system that already has a lot of Super Mario on it. So I'm a little hesitant to vote yes. It'll be tough, but for a game like Wonder, I'm rooting for it.
 
NSMBU did 15m and that was just as a port with all the baggage of the NSMB series. Wonder should get close to odyssey at worst unless the switch 2 neuters og switch software sales, which I don't think anyone is expecting
 
Ahhhhhh why not, I'll vote Yes

It might not have an Animal Crossing level launch, but then, it also might! It could be really, really, silly levels of big
 
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My gut response was a hard no and I voted as such since it's a launch game versus an end-of-life title, but... yeah, it will probably keep selling after the next console launches, so why not? It could happen.
 
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It won't purely because time will not be on its side. Odyssey has had 6 years to get where it is. Wonder will probably have like 1 before the next Nintendo console comes out, and while that won't cut off its legs completely if there's BC, it still won't be enough, particularly if they have a 3D Mario lined up for the launch of the Switch 2.

Genuinely interested in how well it does sell. If Nintendo are aiming to give the Switch one last 'huzzah' this holiday, so they'll likely be giving it a big marketing push to capitalise on the movie's success. Not sure it's going to hit U Deluxe's numbers but it'll do well for sure.
 
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If anything it's gonna do 20M faster than Odyssey, and it'll benefit more from BC of the Succ since it's gonna be the newest 2D Mario game while a new 3D Mario is probably a launch window game of the Succ.

NSMBUDX sold 15M being just a vanilla port of the Wii U game, and with Maker 2 coming shortly after. It kept selling throughout the years because people were thirsty for traditional 2D Mario and that one was all the Switch had.

Wonder is gonna have a huge marketing campaign, is releasing on a holiday season of console that has a 100m active userbase, on a year that had millions of new buyers due to the launch of TotK AND the Mario brand is at its highest after having the biggest movie of H1 2023.
 
Yeah, especially if Nintendo doesn't mess up things with BC for the "next thing". 2D Marios are truly the among the best kind of evergreens one could hope for.
 
2D Mario has the advantage of being more apporachable to the general public than 3D Mario, but Odyssey had a big headstart so I think it's unlikely.
Odyssey also had the bonus of the new console smell.
 
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I'm gonna be bullish and say... yes.

Yeah, Odyssey has had six years to hit 25 million plus, but Super Mario Bros Wonder has 2 unprecedented things going for it - the biggest ever install base a mainline Mario game will have at launch, in the year the Super Mario film is likely the top grossing film worldwide.

I expect it'll make up a lot of ground quickly, but that it'll still take a couple of years to catch Odyssey.
 
Nope. It’s too late. The “bigger install base” I’ll see a lot is overrated statement to me. Super Mario Odyssey has been selling on the same big install base too. As the install base grows Odyssey sells more too.

Switch 2 should be out by next holiday too.
 
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It'll do well, obviously, but I don't think it'll quite catch up to Odyssey.

I also kinda think enough people nowadays have grown up with 3D gaming that the tide may have shifted as far as 3d vs 2d goes. The gap was certainly closing on WiiU and 3DS compared to Wii and DS when it comes to Mario, with 3D World even outselling NSMBU on WiiU. And to bring up a non-Mario example Kirby and the Forgotten Land has already sold double what Star Allies did in a fraction of the time. I think we're at a point where the wider audience isn't as put off or confused by 3D gameplay as they were when "2D Mario always does better than 3D Mario" first arose as the conventional wisdom.
 
I firmly believe yes, and its opening quarter will set records for the company overtakig totk as their fastest selling game. this was perfectly timed with mario mania in the first half of the year.
 
i think it passes
TheSpaceBetween said:
I think it could, but will likely take at least half a decade.
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odyssey within 2 years personally, oddysseys legs are kind of the worst for a switch evergreen so if wonder becomes a evergreen its basically a done deal it will pass it at some point.

i think people overestimate how much legs adds and understimates launch sales, totk will probably be most of the way to passing botw already.
 
Djehuty said:
i think it passes


odyssey within 2 years personally, oddysseys legs are kind of the worst for a switch evergreen so if wonder becomes a evergreen its basically a done deal it will pass it at some point.

i think people overestimate how much legs adds and understimates launch sales, totk will probably be most of the way to passing botw already.
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Odyssey sold 12 million in its first year, and has sold almost 13 million more after that. How is that not good legs?
 
I think it’s more likely to happen than not. While Mario Odyssey has had great legs for a 3D Mario, I don’t think it’s 25 or so million is untouchable. As has been touched on, everything has lined up for Wonder to be a colossal hit. Switch having a massive and active install base? Check. The Super Mario Bros. Movie likely being the highest grossing movie of the year? Check. Mario Wonder looking like the most ambitious 2D Mario since Yoshi’s Island? Check. The first two New Super Mario Bros. games each sold 30 million, and neither the Wii or the DS was pushing software to the level the Switch is. While next gen might cut its legs, I do think Nintendo will keep pushing Switch software even after after next gen exclusives start coming. I think the next 2D Mario will be 4 years away, and that will cut its legs more than new hardware will. I can’t wait to see where the sales on this one end up
 
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I think a lot of the answers here assume that Wonder is about as appealing to the average buyer as Odyssey

But I think the thing is that more people will want to play Wonder, and it might be a much bigger game on the whole
 
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I’ll be optimistic and say yes. The original New Super Mario Bros. did better numbers than Odyssey back on the DS, and the Switch is approaching DS numbers. I’ll assume backwards compatibility with the next system extends the life time of Switch software and Wonder catches it eventually.
 
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Hmmmmm, I'm 50/50 on it. I think Wonder will hit 20 million for sure, but beyond that I can't say. Odyssey is at 25 million now and will likely eventually reach 30m or close to it lifetime...

I'll vote no because I'm not 100% confident, but there's a good chance of it happening.
 
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It will, for sure. Can’t underestimate the appeal of simultaneous multiplayer in a Holiday Season release. Or playable Daisy and Peach. Or the love for 2D Super Mario games in the speedrunning community - They posted records for NSMBWii within a week of its release.
 
I don't think so. Odyssey had long years to stretch it's legs, unless this comes out selling an insanely huge opening month amount I don't think it'll do it.
 
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Angel Whispers said:
It will, for sure. Can’t underestimate the appeal of simultaneous multiplayer in a Holiday Season release. Or playable Daisy and Peach. Or the love for 2D Super Mario games in the speedrunning community - They posted records for NSMBWii within a week of its release.
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it also concides well with peach hype. the depending on how long it lasts the peach game presumably next year could do really well.
 
I still feel Odyssey will be on top. SMW should easily pass 20 million and frankly also pass 25 million. Could even see it reaching 30 million, but I'm sure Odyssey will pass 30 million as well though. Would be cool to see both games surpass NSMB DS (so basically 31 million or more).
 
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I believe mario wonder will sell 30mil+ in the end and It will outsell Mario odyssey.
It's the big 2d Mario game after the Mario movie, 2d mario have always sold better than 3d even when they were safer and less interesting, while this game looks amazing. I think we're going to see 2 stellar performances in this holiday season with both mario wonder and Mario rpg remake.
 
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We're seeing franchises growing and getting more front loaded in the Switch era. Pokémon Scarlet and Violet selling 20M in 6 weeks, TotK selling 10m in 3 days, etc.
Super Mario Bros. Wonder is gonna have a very big launch due to the movie hype, new Mario thirsty, huge install base and launching in the holiday season. 10M in the launch quarter alone is a hell of a conservative prediction honestly, probably 15m is the most likely outcome.
But 2D Mario is also hella leggy, so it's gonna keep selling during the whole of next year, and with it being the newest 2D Mario on the Switch 2 for awhile... I can't even think where it's gonna stop.
 
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Depends on when the successor comes out. If it's next year like most people think then no. If it's still years away like I think then yes. (Yes I think it's years away, no I don't want to explain why. I acknowledge I am in the minority here. )
 
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NSMB DS/Wii we're special, the former was the grand return of 2D Mario, and the latter was the first proper multiplayer installment. Wonder looks great, but I don't think it has a hook as captivating as Odyssey, much less the first two NSMB games. I don't think people are dying for a new 2D Mario like they were during the mid-2000's due to the Mario Maker series, and while multiplayer's nice, I think it's pretty well expected any new Mario game. That said I firmly think it will absolutely surpass Maker 2 & 3D World within weeks, and in the medium term I think it will beat NSMBU.
 
Absolutely. Odyssey is the only time 3D Mario really eclipsed 2D Mario overall. NSMB2 of all games did better than every 3D Mario until Odyssey, and the Switch bump would absolutely still exist for 2D Mario.

Get ready because 2D Mario is going to be absolutely massive.
 
Only on Switch? Kinda hard, since 3D Odyssey is an evergreen title 6 years in the market. However if Switch 2 is backwards compatible or Wonder gets a Switch 2 port then yes.
 
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Yes, especially if they threaten to release the Switch 2 only after when Wonder passes Odyssey.
 
I think it can. People have been hoping for a new 2D-Mario for a while now and with a larger userbase and post Mario Movie I think there is a good chance they can manage.
 
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LonkFromPA said:
People's heads are going to spin when this game clears 25M in its first quarter.
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Yeah, I am also surprised to see people brush it off with remarks about odyssey having been on the market for 6 years and such, especially after the sales records that zelda and pokemon had. (2d) Mario, with a great new look and fresh gameplay ideas on a 130 million + userbase is not to be underestimated. Launch boost, holiday second wind, mario movie hype, this will pass Odyssey and clear 30m on switch alone.
 
James said:
NSMB DS/Wii we're special, the former was the grand return of 2D Mario, and the latter was the first proper multiplayer installment. Wonder looks great, but I don't think it has a hook as captivating as Odyssey, much less the first two NSMB games. I don't think people are dying for a new 2D Mario like they were during the mid-2000's due to the Mario Maker series, and while multiplayer's nice, I think it's pretty well expected any new Mario game. That said I firmly think it will absolutely surpass Maker 2 & 3D World within weeks, and in the medium term I think it will beat NSMBU.
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The gap between Super Mario World 2: Yoshi's Island (1995) and NSMB DS (2006) is comparable to the gap between NSMBU (2012) and Super Mario Bros Wonder (2023). It's a bit interesting to see the effects of the passage of time to position one as special and the other not.
 
Sure. I don't see an upcoming 3D Mario blunting sales, they're too much different things to act as a replacement for one another. And I don't see the next Switch killing it, unless either the idiots at Nintendo/NVIDIA couldn't figure out BC or everyone suddenly becomes 2D platformer graphic whores. Since I don't think these things will affect it much, the matter of Odyssey having a headstart doesn't seem very relevant, unless we're just considering which one will be on top as of the end of 2024 or something.
MisterSpo said:
the biggest ever install base a mainline Mario game will have at launch
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That's... an interesting point. They usually don't come out so late so this is probably the largest by a high margin. For both 2D and 3D Wii should be the largest so far. NSMB Wii coming out when Wii was around 60 million. And SMG2 coming out when Wii was a bit over 70m.
 
Linkstrikesback said:
The gap between Super Mario World 2: Yoshi's Island (1995) and NSMB DS (2006) is comparable to the gap between NSMBU (2012) and Super Mario Bros Wonder (2023). It's a bit interesting to see the effects of the passage of time to position one as special and the other not.
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I would still count the Mario Maker games as installments on par with traditional 2D Mario games though. With those in mind there really isn't a huge gap at all.
 
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