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Predictions Will Nintendo be moving towards digital only in the future?

A large portion of Nintendo's consumer base is families, so I think for that demo it's important to keep that retail presence to keep the brand visible.
 
It's unlikely, for now.

There certainly are benefits from their perspective like preventing games from leaking early, not having to let retailers have a cut of sales, etc.

But there are many other reasons not to. Japan is still a big market for physical media and they risk losing sales by going digital only.

What makes me think they will stick with it for at least a few more generations is that they are making physical versions of games that they could have gotten away with not making: Metroid Prime Remastered, Pikmin 1 + 2, etc.
 
I think Nintendo will be the last man standing when it comes to physical media and will continue to be for as long as possible.
 
In 2024 alone Nintendo of America is releasing physical copies of Another Code Recollection and Endless Ocean Luminous. If even NoA is on board with releasing niche games physically, you REALLY don't have to worry in the near future about Nintendo going digital only.
 
I could see them offering a digital-only "budget" option for their next console like Sony and Microsoft do, but I think they'll probably be the last to fully abandon physical releases for their major games
 
I think it's inevitable, yeah, but probably a while away, it's half of their software sales still.

I don't think the "have to keep things on shelves" or "confused parents" will play into it when code cards exist and are already a huge amount of Nintendo's shelf presence. I mean the "physical" Switch games sold at 7-11 in Japan are code cards now, last I saw anyway.

I could see them making it more straightforward than codes. For as worthless as the Amico is, its "code cards" are NFC cards you tap to download, which is neat. What stops Nintendo from doing that, honestly? Reduce the barriers for code cards and they become a bit more appealing.

Before the final deathknell happens I think we'll see the packaging get a LOT cheaper. The way the world has to go, they'll have to stop with this solid plastic for software distribution when thin foldable cardboard is cheaper, more in line with regulations, and like, actually recyclable. Nintendo Switch cases use paper inserts, high quality cardboard isn't sacrificing durability much, if at all, when the current cases crease damage their inserts with enough opens and closes.

I also think we're already in the transition, with full priced games (albeit remakes and re-releases) coming to digital first and physical weeks or months later. I think we'll see a digital only console from Nintendo next generation, either in the Lite/Mini or a new formfactor, like an Ultralite or a TV box.
 
Nintendo still tries to maintain a strong retail presence, so I highly doubt they'll fully shift to digital anytime soon.
 
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While I agree it seems silly to worry about this right now, on the other hand Nintendo has started the strategy of releasing a physical release delayed after the digital release with Metroid Prime Remastered and Pikmin 1 + 2. Doesn't seem impossible they could start doing that more often - treating physical games as something more like "special editions". And that would be very annoying...
 
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For me, the question is not whether they will do it, but when they will do it. And I think they will do it later than other market players.

But since, for reasons that I misunderstand, many consumers seem very happy to pay more for digital games without being able to keep them in time or resell them, and since the all-digital makes it possible to overcome the limitations and the cost of manufacturing a physical medium, I do not see why it would not be absolutely inevitable.
 
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I'm sure, eventually. But I also imagine they'll be the last hold outs.

But I also don't see physical going away. At this point we already see the trend of even digital only consoles getting physical media add-ons. Expect console makers to shell out to scum like LRG to squeeze every penny out of physical buyers. As long as there is still money to be made, it'll be made.
 
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Retail stores for non-essentals will have mostly disappeared from America in 20 years so yes, eventually it will happen
 
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No. They still make a loooooot of sales from physical games. And most importantly, they're still a toy company at heart... They like producing an actual physical product that you can hold in your hands.
 
BassForever said:
Nobody reading your post today will be buying anything in 2124
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star-trek-star-trek-generations.gif
 
If they're supporting backwards compatibility they've got another decade of physical carts coming at least.

The day everyone stops supporting physical, I stop buying new games. Hard out. I'll play old stuff.
 
Yes, the margins are so much better.
That said physical games do very well on Switch, and I think there's something about a portable non disc based device making people want physical because the cards are these tiny SD card things.

I think we'll be fairly safe with physical, for some time to go.
 
It's inevitable, exactly when, no idea.
I think eventually the failed Google Stadia gaming as streaming is probably sadly also inevitable :(
 
Not for the foreseeable future. A decade away? A much higher chance, but at that point anything could happen.

Having said that, 15 years ago in 2009, with the Xbox, Ps and App stores all in full swing, I doubt many people would have said that physical would still make up as much of the market as it does in 2024. People keep predicting its imminent downfall but it’s still there.

The proportion of digital sales will obviously continue to increase, but for as long as Nintendo has the kids market, and physical copies offer gifts and sharing much more easily than vouchers and accounts, the rate that the market divide changes for Nintendo will continue to be slower than many prior predictions had it at.
 
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Concernt said:
I think it's inevitable, yeah, but probably a while away, it's half of their software sales still.

I don't think the "have to keep things on shelves" or "confused parents" will play into it when code cards exist and are already a huge amount of Nintendo's shelf presence. I mean the "physical" Switch games sold at 7-11 in Japan are code cards now, last I saw anyway.

I could see them making it more straightforward than codes. For as worthless as the Amico is, its "code cards" are NFC cards you tap to download, which is neat. What stops Nintendo from doing that, honestly? Reduce the barriers for code cards and they become a bit more appealing.

Before the final deathknell happens I think we'll see the packaging get a LOT cheaper. The way the world has to go, they'll have to stop with this solid plastic for software distribution when thin foldable cardboard is cheaper, more in line with regulations, and like, actually recyclable. Nintendo Switch cases use paper inserts, high quality cardboard isn't sacrificing durability much, if at all, when the current cases crease damage their inserts with enough opens and closes.

I also think we're already in the transition, with full priced games (albeit remakes and re-releases) coming to digital first and physical weeks or months later. I think we'll see a digital only console from Nintendo next generation, either in the Lite/Mini or a new formfactor, like an Ultralite or a TV box.
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Nailed it 100%. Also the push to vouchers already was a sign of things.
 
Went to Walmart for the first time in a few months and in that time they had downsized their video game space by like 90%. What’s left is pretty much all Nintendo! I’d count on them hanging in there longer than others, at least.
 
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Yamanoi said:
Nailed it 100%. Also the push to vouchers already was a sign of things.
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I didn't get into pricing much, but when you account for vouchers, digital is also a LOT cheaper here than physical, as much as a $25 (equivalent) difference.

I don't think Game Vouchers are going anywhere anytime soon, either, because the benefits for Nintendo are considerable.

It converts megafans and the price conscious to digital, and it means they get the money up front, possibly months in advance.
 
Concernt said:
I didn't get into pricing much, but when you account for vouchers, digital is also a LOT cheaper here than physical, as much as a $25 (equivalent) difference.

I don't think Game Vouchers are going anywhere anytime soon, either, because the benefits for Nintendo are considerable.

It converts megafans and the price conscious to digital, and it means they get the money up front, possibly months in advance.
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Only thing I wish they would fix is the 1 year validity.
 
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Concernt said:
I didn't get into pricing much, but when you account for vouchers, digital is also a LOT cheaper here than physical, as much as a $25 (equivalent) difference.

I don't think Game Vouchers are going anywhere anytime soon, either, because the benefits for Nintendo are considerable.

It converts megafans and the price conscious to digital, and it means they get the money up front, possibly months in advance.
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I think that depends where you are. Here physical games are anything up to £15 cheaper than the eshop if you shop around due to intense competition allowed between the online retailers rather than rigid adherence to RRP.
 
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I don't think that they will...yet. Eventually? It's looking like everyone will eventually. But for now that could actually be yet another way for Nintendo to be different, which they seem to enjoy.

The deciding factor seems like it will be retailers. When Walmart, Target, etc. all decide they don't want to deal with it anymore then they may not have much of a choice.
 
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PixelKnight said:
I think that depends where you are. Here physical games are anything up to £15 cheaper than the eshop if you shop around due to intense competition allowed between the online retailers rather than rigid adherence to RRP.
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I mean, yeah, of course it depends. That's why I said "here" and not "generally" 😅

The online retailers here are.
Nintendo themselves, so no deals.
Amazon UK or France, so either the difference is eaten by currency conversion or shipping.
Smyth's, who have 0 competition and might give you 5€ off if you're lucky... With 5€ shipping.
 
Concernt said:
I mean, yeah, of course it depends. That's why I said "here" and not "generally" 😅

The online retailers here are.
Nintendo themselves, so no deals.
Amazon UK or France, so either the difference is eaten by currency conversion or shipping.
Smyth's, who have 0 competition and might give you 5€ off if you're lucky... With 5€ shipping.
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Ah, fair enough.
 
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Concernt said:
I didn't get into pricing much, but when you account for vouchers, digital is also a LOT cheaper here than physical, as much as a $25 (equivalent) difference.

I don't think Game Vouchers are going anywhere anytime soon, either, because the benefits for Nintendo are considerable.

It converts megafans and the price conscious to digital, and it means they get the money up front, possibly months in advance.
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Not really, since it is bound to NSO (which you have to pay for) and a big part of the userbase isn‘t suscribed to it, not to forget that it‘s bound to specific games. And since they don’t make good deals that often you get a second-hand or even a new physical copy cheaper (depending where you live, of course). The voucher program is primarily just a attempt from Nintendo to boost software sales from NSO users.
 
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Digital only is the endgame for the whole games market.

Though it'll take a while, and i fully expect Nintendo to be the last one to make the move.
 
Bonejack said:
Digital only is the endgame for the whole games market.

Though it'll take a while, and i fully expect Nintendo to be the last one to make the move.
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I really do wonder. Because we've already seen a trend of physical coming in more limited releases through physical specific manufacturers. Whose to say the physical market doesn't just turn into some collector's market with physical games occupying the same space as "collector's editions" with inflated prices for the luxury of owning physical?
 
People who don’t follow online video game websites don’t buy digitally in general. They usually hear about a good game by word of mouth then head to Target/Tesco/Carrefour/Yodobashi Camera and pick it up when they happen to go in there next.

I doubt that Nintendo wants to walk away from those sales.

I also don’t think Nintendo wants to torch their business relationship with retailers.
 
Mer.Saloon said:
I really do wonder. Because we've already seen a trend of physical coming in more limited releases through physical specific manufacturers. Whose to say the physical market doesn't just turn into some collector's market with physical games occupying the same space as "collector's editions" with inflated prices for the luxury of owning physical?
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That's all well and good until hardware manufacturers decide it's not worth including a drive/reader for such a niche. Though at that point maybe something like "USB stick games" could replace standard game cards.
 
JoshuaJSlone said:
That's all well and good until hardware manufacturers decide it's not worth including a drive/reader for such a niche. Though at that point maybe something like "USB stick games" could replace standard game cards.
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Doesn't the PS5 digital allow for a disc drive add-on? I think the solution is just that disc drives or card readers will just start becoming optional add-ons you have to get if you want to enjoy physical. Adding more to the "luxury" aspect.
 
Bonejack said:
Digital only is the endgame for the whole games market.

Though it'll take a while, and i fully expect Nintendo to be the last one to make the move.
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Yeah, unless wider video game purchasing habits change drastically at some point, I think the future of gaming will be digital only.

But that is likely decades away, and I agree that Nintendo will probably be the last one holding the physical torch.
 
It would be a very, very long time if ever. Physical is still big on Switch. Just look at how something like the recent Apollo Justice and the Great Ace Attorney collection only got physical releases on Switch and nowhere else.

For my money, physical on Nintendo will only massively shrink in popularity if you have to install from the cartridge, where the benefits of physical versus digital shrink.
 
In the year 2080 I can see Nintendo start to dip their toes into releasing games as digital only with no physical version for every major game.
 
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Probably not for at least the next console generation. Can’t predict outside of that but physical is still a big seller in Japan.
 
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