I felt that their presence at Gamescom and showing developers a demo of The Matrix Awakens running on targeted specs was a statement of intent. This mattered a lot because two years of negative momentum preceded the Wii U launch, and the list of partners was barren compared to the one for the Switch. To build on their 140m+ success, creating as positive a perception as possible is imperative. Showing XB1/PS4 ports won’t do that, even if they’ve had performance boosts for their respective successors, because we’ve seen the goalposts shift to “Yeah, but those are last gen games we’ve already played” - Same thing happened with Batman: Arkham City on the Wii U, although to this day, it remains the highest acclaimed superhero title.
GTA5 being on that list is actually embarrassing. That ship has sunk, especially as a lead third-party launch title, and when the discussion has shifted full throttle to GTA6. Drawing a false equivalence with Skyrim doesn’t help here, either, because that was a remastered edition, and more a statement that Bethesda were on board with a Nintendo platform after a long absence, and in part because they wanted that game on the Wii U. Bethesda also expressed an enthusiasm for the Switch pitch, and said at the time that they looked forward to putting more games on it. That isn’t the case for R*, as they’ve been present with LA Noire and RDR1. GTA6 is the statement it needs, and I’ve said elsewhere that I believe Nintendo wants that game, and will endeavour to get it on their platform. Also, bear in mind that it needs another audience, as R* won’t have PS/XBox owners to double-dip, and that already puts it some tens of millions down from the last GTA title. I would also rule out RE4 Remake and Red Dead Redemption 2 because if any of those games come at all, they should be mere formalities, and NOT the height of aspiration for new Nintendo hardware.
Elden Ring is a cross-gen title, and it’s a lock-in at some point because Nintendo doesn’t put out a tweet acknowledging it before its launch “for the love” - Its forthcoming DLC means it’s in the discussion, and a complete edition could be the one. COULD be. I’m confident it’ll come, but I don’t have it down as a lead title.
So, What else is there? I have a feeling that Dragon Quest 12 is a strong possibility for a lead third-party Japanese title, and the reason we haven’t seen it yet is because it’ll make its premiere at a Direct or conference. Monster Hunter: Wilds is a close second for me in this area because unless Sony has a domestic exclusivity deal on it, that game will not achieve its true sales potential at home without the existence of a Nintendo version. LADGaiden should be a formality, but I don’t see it because I don’t have a great deal of confidence in Sega currently, or feel that new hardware would change the toxic attitude of their studio’s developers.
Baldur’s Gate 3 is a lock-in, and should be the lead Western third-party launch title, in order to create a very positive perception if GTA6 can’t be confirmed on the reveal. If they can show it with a split screen mode, that would be some flex because the XSS didn’t have it. The banned-on-here CDPR title is another strong contender in this area because Nvidia had done some work with it - I believe it’s in the discussion, and more so, if it can be shown with ray tracing and a better performance than the XB1/PS4 versions. Don’t wish to say any more than that on it because I want to be as mindful as possible. I wouldn’t rule out EA Sports, specifically Madden, because the Switch reached this point without it, and now would be a good time for it to make a comeback. At the same time, I remain sceptical because of the reality of that publisher’s anti-Nintendo culture and industry politics.
Most of all, I feel that collectively, we must move beyond a handful of XB1/PS4 ports that aren’t on the Switch. They won’t move the needle in meaningful ways for Nintendo, or turn a 140m+ success into one that can push closer to 200m, or at least eclipse the PS2 lifetime sales with confidence. PS5/XS games are the aspiration. We know this because the successor has DLSS/neural unit and RT cores on chip, as well as Ampere and Lovelace elements - These things wouldn’t be there if Nintendo aspired to XB1/PS4 ports, and it will never not be wild to me that the gaming community and discourse continues to disrespect them like this. Still, let’s not forget that Nintendo recruited an ex-PS employee for their Developer & Partnership Relations. That says to me that they will push harder for certain titles, and I believe they’ve answered the third party question “Why buy the Nintendo version?”, too. So, fans can, and ought to dare to expect more.