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Predictions Time to place our final bets - will Metroid Prime 4 be in the June 2024 Direct?

Will Metroid Prime 4 be in the June 2024 Direct?

  • Total voters
    241
  • Poll closed .
AranPrime said:
Games not selling well in a systems twilight years is such an absurd myth. Mario Wonder, Pikmin 4, Kirby and The Forgotten Land and Mario RPG remake all broke first week records for their series and in some cases are the overall best selling games. The only cases where this saying has credibility are when it comes to sequels that are on the same system as their predecessor. But even in such cases, those games still sell really well. The only exception that comes to mind is Sparks of Hope and that's in some part due to Ubisofts consistent price drops hurting it.

Either way, this is the first original 3D Metroid on the Switch and believe or not, there's a whole lot of people who aren't interested in a 2D game like Dread but will buy a 3D game like Prime 4.

Even if this myth was true, try explaining to me why games like Rift Apart, Second Son, Forbidden West and especially Metroid Prime 3 all sold either only a bit better than their predecessor or worse and what insurance do we have that this same scenario won't replay itself with Prime 4.

At the end of the day, it honestly doesn't matte if Prime 4 comes out in 2024 or 2025, on the Switch or the Switch 2. What matters is quality. If this game drops and let's say it gets reviews that are comparable to the original trilogy along with strong WoM, that will be its best shot at becoming the best selling Metroid game and maybe getting to 5 million or more.
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MP4 is gonna be a crazy expensive entry in a series with a historically low sales ceiling. All-audience games - and in particular games that skew younger - will do fine late-gen, but Metroid isn't one of those. Samus Returns sales were bad. Metroid Prime Remaster sales were fine but disappointing. It makes sense to make it cross-gen to maximise sales potential.
 
beaglor said:
MP4 is gonna be a crazy expensive entry in a series with a historically low sales ceiling. All-audience games - and in particular games that skew younger - will do fine late-gen, but Metroid isn't one of those. Samus Returns sales were bad. Metroid Prime Remaster sales were fine but disappointing. It makes sense to make it cross-gen to maximise sales potential.
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Again, how do you know it will actually help it sell better. Look at Prime 3 which, when it came out, was the biggest game on the system since Twilight Princess and Wii Sports.
 
AranPrime said:
Again, how do you know it will actually help it sell better. Look at Prime 3 which, when it came out, was the biggest game on the system since Twilight Princess and Wii Sports.
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? Prime 3 was released a year after the Wii launch. Don't understand how this relates to my point. A year after Switch 2 launch is probably the best time to launch Prime 4, but they already promised it for Switch, so crossgen is about as good.
 
Even for people that believe that the game is better suited for cross gen(which I understand and even think it might be), there's just no point in not showing the game now.
Nintendo had a full blowout of Breath of the Wild for Wii U at E3 2017. And that was a game that had a teaser 7 months prior, that had alpha gameplay at the TGA and was ""just"" announced 2 years prior.
Metroid Prime 4 was announced 7 years ago and there's no footage or even a concept CG-i teaser for it.
A cross gen game will do a lot of buzz if it's a game that's already hyped about like BotW was. 5s of off screen footage on the Switch 2 reveal trailer isn't what this game deserves after 7 years of waiting.
There's no point in "waiting to show the best graphics" because if the game is cross gen is because it'd release for Switch just as late as 2025 regardless and they'll advertise it's playable at 4K on Switch 2. There's absolutely no chance the game will have a full remaster treatment at day 1.
And again, it'll compete with major games for the spotlight there for the very first look at the game.

Regardless of when it comes, re-reveal it this Direct, give it the spotlight it deserves by being the most talked about game of the Direct, then everyone goes wow on the new footage for Switch 2 on the trailer, then another trailer on the presentation and release it May 2025.

Or give it a meaty and hype trailer and date it for October/November and heavily market it.
beaglor said:
MP4 is gonna be a crazy expensive entry in a series with a historically low sales ceiling. All-audience games - and in particular games that skew younger - will do fine late-gen, but Metroid isn't one of those. Samus Returns sales were bad. Metroid Prime Remaster sales were fine but disappointing. It makes sense to make it cross-gen to maximise sales potential.
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It's gonna be crazy expensive, yeah, but I'd bet it's a far cry from Tears of the Kingdom or Smash Ultimate. There's not much of a chance that the game doesn't break even.
There's also the chance that being the only major game in the holiday season it can sell great numbers right from the start like 3m.
  • Samus Returns sales weren't bad. Nintendo was satisfied with them. Not breaking 1m didn't mean unsuccessful for 3DS games.
  • Metroid Prime Remastered sales weren't disappointing in the slightest. They released a full remake of a legacy title for budget price - meaning they acknowledged that it wouldn't sell well at full price. Then they admitted they undershipped the physical versions. Meaning... Yeah, the game surpassed their expectations to the point of admitting they undershipped.

beaglor said:
? Prime 3 was released a year after the Wii launch. Don't understand how this relates to my point. A year after Switch 2 launch is probably the best time to launch Prime 4, but they already promised it for Switch, so crossgen is about as good.
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Prime 3 was August 2007. After the launch games(Twilight Princess and Wii Sports) but before the holiday game(Galaxy). Just happens that both Mario and Zelda really overlap with people whiling to buy Metroid. Then Corruption did okay but a far cry from MP1 peak.
 
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As Prime 4 is a well-known title now(due to the reboot and crazy delay), Nintendo sure want to make this IP more famous. This will be a valuable investment for Nintendo, even it can only sell 3M or 5M copies finally. Therefore, taking advantage of NG hardware to make it looks better, will be a good plan for them.

Prime 4 may have 2-3 trailers, and Nintendo can reveal them slowly, along with NG progress, finally reveal a amazing final trailer and make it a cross-gen title.
(Prime sales is better than Pikmin, Prime will surely get better advertisement)

But no matter what, Prime 4 will surely get switch version as Nintendo promised
 
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It depends on if it’s a Switch game or a Switch 2 game.

Personally, I’m betting that development restarted too early for it to be a proper Switch 2 title. Maybe there will be an enhanced port for the new system, but I think it’s just gonna be the last big game for the Switch. So yeah, I think they have to announce it in this direct.
 
spekkeh said:
This sounds like a nothing bluff, no offense. It's coming very soon but I believe not this year, it may be in the Direct but also could not be. I have reasons for everything. That's just hedging your guesses to always be right.



There's also Avowed, Dragon Age and BLOPS6. For me I can add Warhammer, Life is Strange, Arkham Shadow, Visions of Mana and half a dozen other games. Second half and holiday especially is jam packed. Not that it really matters to Nintendo I think, but if it did, they would better put their core-focused more niche games in the summer to get out of the holiday bustle, which they have done a few times.
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I don't really see Avowed/Dragon Age taking up all the oxygen in holiday (and likewise Indiana Jones/Lego HORIZON), and CoD continues to CoD and people buy Nintendo games just fine every year alongside CoD - there's some good, interesting games coming out - but I think Prime 4 would do well alongside the other things releasing this holiday - Prime 4 as a Switch 1 game (which it is, and the most youre going to get out of a next gen version is prettier graphics/better frame rate etc... cos they aren't going to cancel the game again and completely retool the game for Switch 2 which they'd have to do) would struggle with ppl focusing on Switch 2 games as well as heavier hitters coming next year like GTA, Death Stranding, Fable, probably Ghost Of Tsushima 2 etc...
 
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Yes and I'm betting EVERYTHING on it, you can have my car, my house, my cats, my life!

IT'S HAPENING

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Isn't it entirely possible that Nintendo reveals it this month and then confirms it's crossgen without having to wait for a Switch 2 reveal? Like how BOTW was the only focus at E3 2016 (before the Switch was revealed) and was playable while also confirming that it is a crossgen title.
 
I think we will see Metroid Prime 4 at last
I feel like it would make a good closer to the Direct with it being just over 7 years since it was first announced
 
bashfluff said:
It depends on if it’s a Switch game or a Switch 2 game.
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Thing is, most people from either team think it's both. ;D

Skipper93653 said:
Isn't it entirely possible that Nintendo reveals it this month and then confirms it's crossgen without having to wait for a Switch 2 reveal? Like how BOTW was the only focus at E3 2016 (before the Switch was revealed) and was playable while also confirming that it is a crossgen title.
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There's no problem showing of the "last gen" version if there's not too much power difference like there is between Wii U and Switch (Disclaimer: I said not too much, not that there is no difference!).

But from the expected / rumored / speculated tech inside the Switch 2, we're talking about quite a jump in power between Switch 1 and 2. Enough to make a difference in graphics and performance for a game.

And usually, you would want to show off a game in the best possible way. (Remember that BotW "bullshot gameplay" demo with Miyamoto and Aonuma at TGA some years ago?) ;]
 
Bonejack said:
Thing is, most people from either team think it's both. ;D
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Agreed, but I don’t think people agree on what “both” means. As in, which system is it primarily for. Will it be a Switch 2 game that they adjust to get running on Switch 1, or will it be a Switch 1 game that will have graphical enhancements for if you run it on your Switch 2?

This matters for figuring out if it’s going to be at the Direct, I think. Showing off a proper launch title for Switch 2 doesn’t make sense, but it does make sense to show off a Switch 1 title that has an upgrade when playing on Switch 2.
 
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beaglor said:
MP4 is gonna be a crazy expensive entry in a series with a historically low sales ceiling. All-audience games - and in particular games that skew younger - will do fine late-gen, but Metroid isn't one of those. Samus Returns sales were bad. Metroid Prime Remaster sales were fine but disappointing. It makes sense to make it cross-gen to maximise sales potential.
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Wouldn't it cost them even more money to start developing a version for Switch 2 midway through production?
 
No, it will not. It does not make much sense. Nintendo will showcase Metroid Prime 4 as they technical master piece during the switch 2 reveal. We could see a tease tho.
 
Because I'm an absolute wimp and don't want to make an avatar bet, I'll partake this time.

No, I don't think MP4 will be at this Direct. I don't think MP4 is a 2024 game, but I do believe it's gone cross-gen and will launch simultaneously on the new console.

HOWEVER... I don't believe that we are beyond some kind of tease, a small CG trailer with no gameplay/footage giveaways. If it does show up, I reckon that's what you'll get along with a '2025' tag at the end.

But as it stands, I think the odds are in favour of it not being there.
 
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menx64 said:
No, it will not. It does not make much sense. Nintendo will showcase Metroid Prime 4 as they technical master piece during the switch 2 reveal. We could see a tease tho.
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This trail of thought does not sit right with me because if Prime 4 is a Switch 2 technical masterpiece that means the game is either not happening on Switch 1, which I can’t see happening or the the game will be a 540p 30 fps game on the og Switch, which would be a massive downgrade from Prime Remastered. I just can not see Nintendo having Prime Remastered looking and performing far better than Prime 4.
 
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Joe said:
Wouldn't it cost them even more money to start developing a version for Switch 2 midway through production?
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Of course, but the Prime games are generally so baroque in terms of environmental/creature design, and the jump from PS3 graphics to PS4 graphics is relatively minor, that you mostly just get away with an upscaler and improved lighting and effects. A little would go a long way.
 
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Happy to eat my words, but I can't see it happening.

First, it's just too late in the lifetime – sadly, this title is not going to sway anybody on the fence to buy a Switch in any meaningful way. There will be no noticeable boost to hardware sales.

Second, Nintendo just released TOTK. There is no way that the next major Zelda title is going to be ready for Switch 2's launch window. For this reason, I think Prime 4 could sit nicely as a first party showpiece for Switch 2's technical capabilities in a way that other titles (including 3d Mario) cannot. Not to mention, it will also have had a little more time in the oven, and it will be a great way to stoke the flames of the hype engine for their dedicated fanbase.

The only alternative I can see is MP4 being a cross-gen title to maximise sales, but personally I think this is less likely.
 
I keep flip flopping on this. Because right now, i think most people are assuming no Switch specific direct or maybe no directs at all in the usual September slot.
if we assume that, then they have to announce everything now and if they have to announce it, i do believe MP4 will be there.

I think the length of the direct from the NoA tweet will tell us a lot. Right now im 60% believe it will be there, so voted yes, but my yes has an asterix.
 
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It'll be Switch 1 exclusive and run at 30 fps, causing controversy in the fandom. Then it'll come out and be really good, no boost for Switch 2 hardware though.
If it comes to Switch 2 it'll be cross platform. Nintendo usually keeps to their word in terms of releasing it on on the hardware it was announced for. Metroid just isn't a big enough franchise for it to take the BOTW/Twilight Princess launch title spot. The ceiling for this series is like 3-4 million.

But honestly the talk about what console it'll release on is boring imo. I'm sure it'll look good on whatever console it releases on, if HD Remaster is any indication of what Retro's capable of.

I'm more curious about what new gameplay ideas it'll have and if it'll follow the formula of the previous games.
 
I’ve said it several times over the years but it would be very disappointing for this game to not be announced for at least the Switch. I bought a Switch on the promise from Nintendo that Prime 4 would be made for the console. And while I’ve played several games that made the purchase worth it in the meanwhile (including Metroid 5, a game I waited about 20 years for) this is still the one I was most excited for.
All that said, could really go either way on whether they make it this years holiday release or use it to highlight cross generation releases and performance for the Switch 2 later. Hell, those aren’t even mutually exclusive.
 
Monkey's Paw, it's yes but it's "We are continuing to work on the development of Metroid Prime 4 and we will have an announcement when it is ready exclusively for the Nintendo Switch".
 
Nintendo hasn't announced their Nintendo Day game, have they? It's gotta be this. What else can they even have prepared? There's no Pokemon game this year, no Mario games on the horizon, certainly no Zelda stuff. It's Metroid's time. It has to be.
 
Pawfuilly said:
Nintendo hasn't announced their Nintendo Day game, have they? It's gotta be this. What else can they even have prepared? There's no Pokemon game this year, no Mario games on the horizon, certainly no Zelda stuff. It's Metroid's time. It has to be.
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I hope its metroid. But there could be a 2D zelda
 
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I think they will NOT show it, but say we'll get news later on in the year.
They've done something like this with ToTK, I think.
 
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AranPrime said:
Games not selling well in a systems twilight years is such an absurd myth. Mario Wonder, Pikmin 4, Kirby and The Forgotten Land and Mario RPG remake all broke first week records for their series and in some cases are the overall best selling games. The only cases where this saying has credibility are when it comes to sequels that are on the same system as their predecessor. But even in such cases, those games still sell really well. The only exception that comes to mind is Sparks of Hope and that's in some part due to Ubisofts consistent price drops hurting it.

Either way, this is the first original 3D Metroid on the Switch and believe or not, there's a whole lot of people who aren't interested in a 2D game like Dread but will buy a 3D game like Prime 4.

Even if this myth was true, try explaining to me why games like Rift Apart, Second Son, Forbidden West and especially Metroid Prime 3 all sold either only a bit better than their predecessor or worse and what insurance do we have that this same scenario won't replay itself with Prime 4.

At the end of the day, it honestly doesn't matte if Prime 4 comes out in 2024 or 2025, on the Switch or the Switch 2. What matters is quality. If this game drops and let's say it gets reviews that are comparable to the original trilogy along with strong WoM, that will be its best shot at becoming the best selling Metroid game and maybe getting to 5 million or more.
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First week record sure, that's what a larger install base does, but Mario Wonder still lags behind Mario U Deluxe (a much worse game and port), Kirby is the first 3D game and yes Pikmin 4 is the best selling game in the series, but it's at 2.6M v 2.4M. In addition, Pikmins only released on Nintendo's failed consoles, Gamecube and Wii U, so it's not a very good comparison.
Meanwhile you have the situation with more core focused Zelda games, where Twilight Princess sold 8.9M to a nonexistent install base and Skyward Sword 3.6M to an 80M install base. TOTK will also never reach BOTW's sales number.
 
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Skipper93653 said:
Isn't it entirely possible that Nintendo reveals it this month and then confirms it's crossgen without having to wait for a Switch 2 reveal? Like how BOTW was the only focus at E3 2016 (before the Switch was revealed) and was playable while also confirming that it is a crossgen title.
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I can see this happening by the way. It would be a good way to placate fans this year while also showing off how much better Switch 2 is than Switch 1, so people will want to upgrade. I'm not really sure they can pull a The Last of Us by releasing it on Switch 1 during the holidays and then a year later on Switch 2 in remastered form though. I don't think Metroid has that kind of gamer cachet, and the Switch 2 version would release with a whimper. So if there's a reveal in this Direct, I think it will be a teaser and the release date is 2025.
 
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franzen23 said:
It'll be Switch 1 exclusive and run at 30 fps, causing controversy in the fandom. Then it'll come out and be really good, no boost for Switch 2 hardware though.
If it comes to Switch 2 it'll be cross platform. Nintendo usually keeps to their word in terms of releasing it on on the hardware it was announced for. Metroid just isn't a big enough franchise for it to take the BOTW/Twilight Princess launch title spot. The ceiling for this series is like 3-4 million.

But honestly the talk about what console it'll release on is boring imo. I'm sure it'll look good on whatever console it releases on, if HD Remaster is any indication of what Retro's capable of.

I'm more curious about what new gameplay ideas it'll have and if it'll follow the formula of the previous games.
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Knowing what Retro is like, I don't think there's any chance of MP4 running at anything other than a locked 60 fps, no matter what platform it ends up on.
 
MP4 isn’t running anything less than 60fps. You don’t know how Retro Studios operates when it comes to Metroid Prime if you think it’ll be 30 fps. Folks still don’t understand the culture, vision and how they like to push the tech at their studio
 
spekkeh said:
First week record sure, that's what a larger install base does, but Mario Wonder still lags behind Mario U Deluxe (a much worse game and port), Kirby is the first 3D game and yes Pikmin 4 is the best selling game in the series, but it's at 2.6M v 2.4M. In addition, Pikmins only released on Nintendo's failed consoles, Gamecube and Wii U, so it's not a very good comparison.
Meanwhile you have the situation with more core focused Zelda games, where Twilight Princess sold 8.9M to a nonexistent install base and Skyward Sword 3.6M to an 80M install base. TOTK will also never reach BOTW's sales number.
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I’m sorry but this post is wrong on multiple levels.
I’ll just say: mario wonder by the end of the year will easily outsell mario u deluxe so I don’t get what lags behind means here.
Pikmin 4 is at 3.33mil not 2.6mil so it definitely eclipsed pikmin 3 deluxe which was the former best selling title (which was also on the switch so the point of pikmin only on failed consoles isn’t a point really)
Twilight princess reached 9mil copies over the span of 6 years so I don’t get this nonexistent install base thing either, and skyward sword did worse because the wii’s final years were abysmal and it had a weak active base that bought new titles.
The big problem for metroid is that it’s never been an evergreen franchise that sells over time, that’s why it’s probably better to sell to the highest install base possible instead of banking on big sales over the course of a new console life time. I mean Arms released at tge start of the switch and it’s stuck at sub 3mil, so everegreen sales are not guaranteed. Metroid dread opened in 2020 at 2.7 mil and it barely surpassed 3mil in 4 years. So releasing at the start of a generation is not always a recipe for success, not all games are botw or mario kart 8 deluxe
 
Hero of Hyrule said:
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We are in June, when what may be the last major general Direct of the Switch era will be broadcast. It could even be announced for as early as this week (my personal opinion is it’ll be towards the end of the month, however). Nintendo announcements for Directs often tend to mention games that will be featured explicitly.

So this is when we have to have this final discussion - will Metroid Prime 4 be in the June Nintendo Direct? Why or why not?

Bonus question - if it is in the Direct will Nintendo share that it’ll be featured in it upfront?
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sadly no, anounce the game on Switch sucessor presentation and launch late 2025(octobre 2025) as the final major Switch games and one of Switch sucessor first games, i not feeling even 50% the game will be shown on the june Direct.
 
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Skipper93653 said:
Isn't it entirely possible that Nintendo reveals it this month and then confirms it's crossgen without having to wait for a Switch 2 reveal? Like how BOTW was the only focus at E3 2016 (before the Switch was revealed) and was playable while also confirming that it is a crossgen title.
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no, Shuntaro Furukawa was crystal clear, there will be no mention of Switch sucessor on the june Direct
 
I think it will, for the same reasons that ToTK was not "saved for Switch 2" either.

My moonshot dream is that they pull what Capcom did for RE and alternate remakes and new entries for a new Prime trilogy (4, 2 Remaster, 5, 3 Remaster, 6).
 
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