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Predictions Time to place our final bets - will Metroid Prime 4 be in the June 2024 Direct?

Will Metroid Prime 4 be in the June 2024 Direct?

  • Total voters
    241
  • Poll closed .
Kartina said:
I’m sorry but this post is wrong on multiple levels.
I’ll just say: mario wonder by the end of the year will easily outsell mario u deluxe so I don’t get what lags behind means here.
Pikmin 4 is at 3.33mil not 2.6mil so it definitely eclipsed pikmin 3 deluxe which was the former best selling title (which was also on the switch so the point of pikmin only on failed consoles isn’t a point really)
Twilight princess reached 9mil copies over the span of 6 years so I don’t get this nonexistent install base thing either, and skyward sword did worse because the wii’s final years were abysmal and it had a weak active base that bought new titles.
The big problem for metroid is that it’s never been an evergreen franchise that sells over time, that’s why it’s probably better to sell to the highest install base possible instead of banking on big sales over the course of a new console life time. I mean Arms released at tge start of the switch and it’s stuck at sub 3mil, so everegreen sales are not guaranteed. Metroid dread opened in 2020 at 2.7 mil and it barely surpassed 3mil in 4 years. So releasing at the start of a generation is not always a recipe for success, not all games are botw or mario kart 8 deluxe
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As a counterpoint, the Metroid 2 remake didn't even break a million on 3DS. Metroid is a series that appeals to 'core' gamers (haven't seen that term in a while), who have generally moved on from Switch. I think it's a natural fit for a cross platform release.
 
beaglor said:
As a counterpoint, the Metroid 2 remake didn't even break a million on 3DS
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It didn't need to. Whether a game sold well is relative, not based on hard numbers. Nintendo said they were pleased with the sales of Samus Returns, and it shows in the fact that they let Mercury Steam make the next game in the series.
 
Joe said:
It didn't need to. Whether a game sold well is relative, not based on hard numbers. Nintendo said they were pleased with the sales of Samus Returns, and it shows in the fact that they let Mercury Steam make the next game in the series.
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Ok, but low sales are low sales and my point was that there is doubt that a tail-end-of-the-generation release is going to do anything for a Metroid game in terms of raw sales. If Prime 4 - a game that has been in development for 7 years - doesn't do numbers, that's gonna be the end of the Prime series and (at the risk of being dramatic) maybe the end of Retro.
 
Voted on yes. No idea whether they'll make it cross-gen but they can always confirm it later on. This is the best time for them to excite the core gamers given that it's a relatively drier year.
 
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beaglor said:
Ok, but low sales are low sales and my point was that there is doubt that a tail-end-of-the-generation release is going to do anything for a Metroid game in terms of raw sales. If Prime 4 - a game that has been in development for 7 years - doesn't do numbers, that's gonna be the end of the Prime series and (at the risk of being dramatic) maybe the end of Retro.
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But they aren't low sales, the 3DS was a dead system with poor software sales by the time Samosa Returns released, so the sales performance was fine.

The Switch does not have the issue the 3DS did, it has an engaged and active install base that still buys games. A Metroid game on Switch will not run into the same issues that Samus Returns did.
 
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beaglor said:
As a counterpoint, the Metroid 2 remake didn't even break a million on 3DS. Metroid is a series that appeals to 'core' gamers (haven't seen that term in a while), who have generally moved on from Switch. I think it's a natural fit for a cross platform release.
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I'm sorry but do we have any reason to believe the "core" gamers have moved on from Switch? And in the context of Nintendo core gamers are those who buy Zelda, Super Mario, Pikmin, Mario RPG, etc, and all of those came out last year to great success.
Nintendo felt that 2024 was the right year to release stuff like Paper Mario The Thousand Year Door, Endless Ocean, Another Code. They might feel it's the right year to release Metroid as well.
It's not like the game wasn't always intended to come in the final year of the console anyways, Emily said back in 2021 that it was targeting 2023(and back then Switch 2 was targeting 2024).
Metroid is very front loaded and Dread has shown that.
The difference from Xenoblade Chronicles 2 to 3 is not that big with one being released at the start of the gen and the other late on it.
We've seen even a great retention of user base buying sequels on the same console with the Switch. Metroid Prime 4 can really shine on holiday 2024.

But it can be a 2025 game and I was getting in terms with the idea since late 2023, but anyways I just want to see it. Show a trailer in the Direct and then show it again on the Switch 2 Event, but please let it be shown 😭.
 
Hero of Hyrule said:
Voting is closed, but does anyone want to share thoughts on whether or not this is happening?
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I've been saying all along that I hope it releases this year, but I'd be happy just to finally see it tomorrow. Hopefully we would at least get Primes 2 and 3 to make the wait easier.
 
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