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News Russian PMC Wagner have declared their intent to overthrow the Russian Ministry of Defense, and are now marching on Russian Territory

Fingers crossed this turns into major gains for Ukraine, they’ve been quick off the mark once given the opportunity.

According to Ukrainian news agencies, Kyiv has liberated the territories near the city of Krasnohorivka in Donetsk region, which have been occupied by pro-Russia separatists since 2014.

Oleksandr Tarnavsky, commander of the Tavria operational-strategic grouping, Oleksandr Tarnavsky, commander of the Tavria operational-strategic grouping, told the national News Agency of Ukraine, Ukrinform.

“The movement of our forces continues,” Tarnavsky wrote on Telegram on Saturday. “There are tangible successes and progress.”

The Guardian cannot independently verify the claims.
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Lugia667 said:
I wish people would at least stop with the "WAGNER WILL NUKE THE WORLD" fearmongering
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I think there’s a rational fear of Prigozhin pushing for use of tactical nukes in Ukraine, but yeah, I can’t see this ending up with Wagner in charge of intercontinental ballistic missile silos.

Despite rebellion, Prigozhin is still a radical pro-war figure
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Abdujalil Abdurasulov
BBC News, Kyiv

ReutersCopyright: Reuters
The Wagner head is certainly unhappy with the war in Ukraine - calling it a "disgrace" - but not because the Russian military is wiping out entire cities and committing war crimes.
He's critical of the army and its leadership for not fighting well enough.
Russian forces have had to retreat from territories they’d gained, and Prigozhin says army bosses are weak because they are unwilling to use tactical nuclear weapons.
But Prigozhin has also repeated Moscow’s propaganda to justify the invasion, calling people living in eastern Ukraine “genetically Russian”.
"This is a sacred war against those who offend Russian people," he said in his recent statement.
So Prigozhin must be seen as part of the radical pro-war group in Russia who are demanding more drastic action to defeat Ukraine.
And in their view, the current leadership is unable to achieve this.
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EvilChameleon said:
It's funny because a military coup is exactly the sort of thing the Western powers would speak up in protest against, but because it's Russia, we're just gonna be silent and ignore it, lest we appear to be pro-Putin. 😅
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It’s quite simple EC, it’s an attempt at a special military redistribution of political power. That’s totally different from a coup /s
 
I really don’t think we need to scaremonger about WWIII here until it’s much further down the line and a new leader emerges. Firstly we need to wait see what happens if and when they reach the Kremlin. Even then Russia just switches national control to St Petersburg, and its nuke codes remain in the hands of the generals, none of whom have declared for Prigozhin (yet). A brief and bloody civil war might be on the cards, in which case that’s great for Ukraine, but Wagner are a long long way from civil and military and strategic authority even if they reach the Kremlin, no matter Prigozhin’s extremist views.
 
EvilChameleon said:
It's funny because a military coup is exactly the sort of thing the Western powers would speak up in protest against, but because it's Russia, we're just gonna be silent and ignore it, lest we appear to be pro-Putin. 😅
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It's different when it's in an actual democracy where people have a power, and a fascist dictator where people have had no recourse to elect who they want for decades.

The whole, "both sides are equal to blame" stuff is incomprehensible right now.
 
Lozjam said:
It's different when it's in an actual democracy where people have a power, and a fascist dictator where people have had no recourse to elect who they want for decades.

The whole, "both sides are equal to blame" stuff is incomprehensible right now.
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I think most western powers outside Ukraine right now are adopting the strategic wisdom of ‘when your enemy is making a massive mistake, don’t interfere’.

Once they’ve finished wiping the coffee off their computer screens.
 
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I don't know where I stand on this. I will not trust an entire country to a merc group but seeing the atrocities committed by Putin, How much worse can get outside of nukes being involved?

All I know is this is about to make my job a whole lot harder on monday lol
 
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Anything the helps the Ukrainians in their counter- offense to retake their territory sounds pretty good to me.

I can't pretend to be too upset that the fascists are getting drawn into a civil conflict with their own soldiers. Obviously a democratic revolution would be infinitely better, but anything that clogs up and slows down the Russian war machine is good for Ukraine.
 
JazzPotatoes said:
Anything the helps the Ukrainians in their counter- offense to retake their territory sounds pretty good to me.

I can't pretend to be too upset that the fascists are getting drawn into a civil conflict with their own soldiers. Obviously a democratic revolution would be infinitely better, but anything that clogs up and slows down the Russian war machine is good for Ukraine.
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I don't think a potential future where Wagner is running Russia is good for Ukraine. We might miss Putin if that happens.
 
the leader of Wagner said the entire Ukraine invasion was based on a lie doesn't need to be "de-Nazified" and that NATO were never a threat to Russia which is at least something I guess (depending if those statements are made in the tone we would hope and not a "Wagner is so good we will just nuke them all") - ultimately, this will probably lead to short term benefits for Ukraine while they fight amongst themselves, but yes, mercenaries running a nuclear country is not a good thing (nor is Putin running it a good thing... so its kinda lose lose)
 
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Seems like Wagner are split into two objectives, the raid on Moscow and preparing for being besieged at Rostov. Seems like the assault group is going to make a mess but be in trouble if they run into any serious opposition or get stalled for any reason. I wonder if the speed of the raid was intended to make the Ogliarchs run and thus reinforce Prigozhin’s claims, even if they don’t think it has much chance of success. Meanwhile, the rest of them settle in for the long haul at Rostov and hope some popular sentiment (or some powerful allies that are waiting to see how it all plays out) backs them.
 
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One thing that's been bumming me out for this whole period now is how some people attribute actions of a single person to the entire country.
There are already power-hungry dorks cheering on reportedly normal russians being shelled which is fucking gross.
Makes me sad that if I die, no matter how much I was protested and detained, my death might be treated as "lmao stupid russians play stupid games win stupid prizes" shit, as if this sort of "protesting" which people demand from russians ever worked (see protests against Iraq invasion, Brexit, Trump, Roe V Wade, previous Putin protests, etc.)
 
Hermii said:
I don't think a potential future where Wagner is running Russia is good for Ukraine. We might miss Putin if that happens.
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There's no realistic scenario where Wagner take over Russia in it's entirety. It's not even clear ATM if they'll be able to hold Rostov or do anything at Moscow.
 
Vookatos said:
One thing that's been bumming me out for this whole period now is how some people attribute actions of a single person to the entire country.
There are already power-hungry dorks cheering on reportedly normal russians being shelled which is fucking gross.
Makes me sad that if I die, no matter how much I was protested and detained, my death might be treated as "lmao stupid russians play stupid games win stupid prizes" shit, as if this sort of "protesting" which people demand from russians ever worked (see protests against Iraq invasion, Brexit, Trump, Roe V Wade, previous Putin protests, etc.)
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This is a good observation and something I think more folks should acknowledge. I would feel terrible if you were the victim of your government's failings.
 
The worst thing about all of this is that I don't feel anything. The last 16 months just drained me mentally to the point where I feel apathetic about the possibility of civil war in here.
 
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Lugia667 said:


dunno how seriously we can take the Belarusian President tbh...
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I'm calling BS on this. Prigozhin has essentially declared war on the Russian Military of Defense and has seized Russian cities. There is no going back for him. Either he accomplishes his goal(s) or he is a dead man.
 
Hermii said:
I don't think a potential future where Wagner is running Russia is good for Ukraine. We might miss Putin if that happens.
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I'll copy and paste a post I saw on another forum I frequent...

You’re the new “president” of Russia in a somewhat perilous position.

Do you continue a so far unsuccessful war, or tell the population that the last guy lied and that we went to war under false pretenses, stop making your country an international pariah, and seek to end sanctions so that the citizens shitty lives get slightly less shitty and accept new leadership, all while consolidating your military forces instead of having them stretched out?
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So he’s now claiming it was about the MoD wanting Wagner to all sign military contracts a few days ago? This is what ‘no drop of blood was spilled’ over?

That seems like a bit of a reverse ferret compared to

“Wagner forces 'ready to die' in uprising, Prigozhin says
Yevgeny Prigozhin said the members of his Wagner group, who have launched an armed rebellion, were “ready to die”, in a message posted to Telegram on Saturday morning.

In a string of audio messages, the leader of the mercenary fighters vowed to topple Russia’s military leadership.

“All of us are ready to die. All 25,000, and then another 25,000,” he said. “We are dying for the Russian people.”

He added: “We are saving Russia.”
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Lugia667 said:
WHAT, that's a big anti-climax....

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There's conflicting info right now, so it's best to wait, but if true, then it's basically playing out like I described earler:

WestEgg said:
Unless they can actually get the Russian military to defect to them en masse, Wagner is not taking Moscow. Coups only happen when the actual military looks the other way as the rebels take control, and if that's the case, Putin was already fucked. Wagner likely does not have the manpower to sustain a long-term campaign, and seem at most right now trying to just undermine the military leadership, and if they succeed, will be rewarded with further legitimacy and autonomy going forward. This could end with Russia getting its shit together and taking out Wagner's leadership, or with Wagner rising further as Russia's main power, but it's very unlikely to end with Wagner actually taking control of Russia.
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None of this makes sense. Hours ago, Putin was calling Wagner "traitors of the state", the government seemingly was moving to St. Petersburg, Moscow was going on lockdown, roads and bridges were being destroyed to slow Wagner's movement. Now all of a sudden Wagner decides to stop the coup? Something is missing here because I do not see how Prigozhin survives this.

This whole story is still less than 24 hours old.
 
Wow. Within less than 24 hours we went through
  1. Wagner marches towards Moscow
  2. Putin declares them traitors and flees the city
  3. Martial law in Moscow
  4. Let's not spill any russion blood!
  5. legal imunity for Prigozhin and Wagner
what even is this timeline anymore?
 
oomoepoo said:
Wow. Within less than 24 hours we went through
  1. Wagner marches towards Moscow
  2. Putin declares them traitors and flees the city
  3. Martial law in Moscow
  4. Let's not spill any russion blood!
  5. legal imunity for Prigozhin and Wagner
what even is this timeline anymore?
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Don't forget that Wagner shot down Russian aircraft. Blood was spilt.

It has been a wild day.
 
I'm honestly surprised Prigozhin accepted an offer of diplomatic immunity. Putin has never been one to stick to such agreements, and is now coming out of this debacle looking weaker than ever. Wagner essentially declared civil war on Russia, and have been promised legal immunity from any repurcussions despite previously being called traitors.

There's no way a couple of months down the line, Wagner leadership don't end up conveniently falling out of windows or shooting themselves in the back of the head.

Which, you know, end of the day, they're all imperialist fascists, so not going to bleed my heart for any of them. Just surprised a promise of immunity was enough to end this before it began.

Here's hoping the Ukrainians have been able to make the most of the mess. Sounds like their counter offensive has been incredibly successful so far.
 
JazzPotatoes said:
I'm honestly surprised Prigozhin accepted an offer of diplomatic immunity. Putin has never been one to stick to such agreements, and is now coming out of this debacle looking weaker than ever. Wagner essentially declared civil war on Russia, and have been promised legal immunity from any repurcussions despite previously being called traitors.

There's no way a couple of months down the line, Wagner leadership don't end up conveniently falling out of windows or shooting themselves in the back of the head.

Which, you know, end of the day, they're all imperialist fascists, so not going to bleed my heart for any of them. Just surprised a promise of immunity was enough to end this before it began.

Here's hoping the Ukrainians have been able to make the most of the mess. Sounds like their counter offensive has been incredibly successful so far.
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Putin likely saw how easily Prigozhin was progressing, and now has good reason to be paranoid because the civilians, miliary, and leaders basically let him do as he wanted. Prigozhin is setting himself up to be the next leader of Russia, and may have as much influence within the Russian elite already as Putin does, or at least that's what he fears. I think both of them are going to be watching their backs for a long time.
 
WestEgg said:
Putin likely saw how easily Prigozhin was progressing, and now has good reason to be paranoid because the civilians, miliary, and leaders basically let him do as he wanted. Prigozhin is setting himself up to be the next leader of Russia, and may have as much influence within the Russian elite already as Putin does, or at least that's what he fears. I think both of them are going to be watching their backs for a long time.
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Putin's response, I get: He's promised to change the MoD ministers, and promised no reprisals. He's no doubt planning on letting things settle down, then find a handy window to push Prigozhin out of at the first opportunity to try and reassert his position.

I don't get Prigozhin thinking at all: he's taking assurances from a man who murders dissenters and opponents on a whim. Putin is the man who contaminated a UK village with radioactive material to try and assassinate a target.

There is no scenario where Prigozhin and other Wagner higher ups are not now at the top of the kill list. So why accept an offer of immunity when they'd already taken one city and were marching on another?

It's bizarre
 
JazzPotatoes said:
Putin's response, I get: He's promised to change the MoD ministers, and promised no reprisals. He's no doubt planning on letting things settle down, then find a handy window to push Prigozhin out of at the first opportunity to try and reassert his position.

I don't get Prigozhin thinking at all: he's taking assurances from a man who murders dissenters and opponents on a whim. Putin is the man who contaminated a UK village with radioactive material to try and assassinate a target.

There is no scenario where Prigozhin and other Wagner higher ups are not now at the top of the kill list. So why accept an offer of immunity when they'd already taken one city and were marching on another?

It's bizarre
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I can't imagine it's easy or free of consequences, to assassinate someone who owns a private army though.
 
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lmao
 
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