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Sales Data November 2021 NPD: Switch #1 (1.13M), Games: COD Vanguard #1, Battlefield 2042 #2, BDSP #3

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Dunban said:
Except it does matter in context of sales of the game in the west. It was just another reason why it wouldn't have as high of a digital ratio in America.
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... I don't understand

It not being part of a now-nonexistent program means it won't have that high of a digital sales ratio? Especially considering many other games not part of that same now-nonexistent program continue to have very high digital ratios?

The logic makes no sense.

Leo said:
IV was 20 dollars cheaper than V, so it could have sold more units but still made less money. Although I'm pretty confident it sold more in units too.
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IV was $50, not $40.
 
Skittzo said:
... I don't understand

It not being part of a now-nonexistent program means it won't have that high of a digital sales ratio? Especially considering many other games not part of that same now-nonexistent program continue to have very high digital ratios?

The logic makes no sense.
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The program does exist for this game in another part of the western world, so I thought it was something to say least consider when trying to think about how high the digital ratio of this particular game is here. It is not a first party game so it's not like it's also a voucher game in Japan either, and everyone is hoping western sales are strong. If you think it's irrelevant that's fine.
 
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GrislyRaccoon said:
I wonder if Nintendo will have further plans for Dread. Hoping for some DLC. It may push it up a bit.
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doubt they do. Dread is the kind of game that has very frontloaded sales, and I think Nintendo knows that. the best thing for Dread going forward is sales, but Nintendo doesn't do that. I think the game has done well enough though
 
GrislyRaccoon said:
I wonder if Nintendo will have further plans for Dread. Hoping for some DLC. It may push it up a bit.
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Add a powerbomb wall to a new area or something. The powerbombs should never have been that late in the game considering there's nothing to do with them.
 
Harpoon said:
Well... that certainly puts this shortage into perspective. Yeesh.
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It's really bad, I feel it's gonna take until well into 2023 for someone to be able to walk into a store and buy a PS5. And as someone who does most of his gaming on PC it's even more dire. The 3090 is getting close to costing 4000 euros here.
 
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I’m starting to wonder if we’re heading towards a loooong generation. One year in and despite being wanted systems, the shortage is really throwing a wrench in Sony and MS plans I reckon.

Hell even Nintendo, as Furukawa already warned investors, can’t even produce enough Switches. Weird times.
 
Looks like Switch sales in Japan for October + November were about 1 million according to Famitsu. Adding that to NPD's 1.13 million + 0.711 million for November and October means Switch is at about 95.7 million total, before including European sales for October and November, during which Switch broke regional sales records.

In total Switch is probably at or near 97 million global, as of November 30th, which means passing 100 million by December 31st is very realistic.
 
efyu_lemonardo said:
Looks like Switch sales in Japan for October + November were about 1 million according to Famitsu. Adding that to NPD's 1.13 million + 0.711 million for November and October means Switch is at about 95.7 million total, before including European sales for October and November, during which Switch broke regional sales records.

In total Switch is probably at or near 97 million global, as of November 30th, which means passing 100 million global sales by December 31st is very realistic.
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Sadly we can't actually calculate it that way. 93M was the shipment number as of the end of September, and this includes some shipments that correspond to consoles sold in October. And possibly November in some areas.

What we can do is estimate that they will ship at least 10M units this Q3 (last year was 11.8M) and considering 2.5/3 months of this quarter are over, we can probably assume they've shipped at least 75% of what they plan to, which means it should be over 100M as of a few days ago.
 
Skittzo said:
Sadly we can't actually calculate it that way. 93M was the shipment number as of the end of September, and this includes some shipments that correspond to consoles sold in October. And possibly November in some areas.

What we can do is estimate that they will ship at least 10M units this Q3 (last year was 11.8M) and considering 2.5/3 months of this quarter are over, we can probably assume they've shipped at least 75% of what they plan to, which means it should be over 100M as of a few days ago.
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Thanks for the clarification. I was not aware Nintendo's number for September 30th was units shipped rather than sold.
 
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DecoReturns said:
I don’t think Metroid fans should worry. Nintendo outright bragged about its initial sales. That means it’s probably met and exceeded expectations.

It’s all good 👍🏽
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I mean, it outsold any other title in the franchise in less than a month. I think they're good.

Plus, it's the Holidays. Mario Kart and stuff see huge bumps.
 
efyu_lemonardo said:
Looks like Switch sales in Japan for October + November were about 1 million according to Famitsu. Adding that to NPD's 1.13 million + 0.711 million for November and October means Switch is at about 95.7 million total, before including European sales for October and November, during which Switch broke regional sales records.

In total Switch is probably at or near 97 million global, as of November 30th, which means passing 100 million by December 31st is very realistic.
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Thank you so much for this information I was waiting for someone to give a straight-up honest and accurate prediction as to where the Nintendo Switch install base is more than likely sitting at right now and I agree it is probably at 97 million global at this point. I will be throwing a celebration at the end of December if Nintendo can hit 100 million.
 
Skittzo said:
Sadly we can't actually calculate it that way. 93M was the shipment number as of the end of September, and this includes some shipments that correspond to consoles sold in October. And possibly November in some areas.

What we can do is estimate that they will ship at least 10M units this Q3 (last year was 11.8M) and considering 2.5/3 months of this quarter are over, we can probably assume they've shipped at least 75% of what they plan to, which means it should be over 100M as of a few days ago.
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I guess I should be throwing a celebration right now.
 
Amin_Parker said:
Thank you so much for this information I was waiting for someone to give a straight-up honest and accurate prediction as to where the Nintendo Switch install base is more than likely sitting at right now and I agree it is probably at 97 million global at this point. I will be throwing a celebration at the end of December if Nintendo can hit 100 million.
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I’d wager a hundred million is a lock at this point. Especially with reports that Switch will have a steady supply throughout December.
 
meatbag said:
I’d wager a hundred million is a lock at this point. Especially with reports that Switch will have a steady supply throughout December.
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Thank you so much I really appreciate your response. I certainly look forward to an official announcement from Nintendo.
 
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I'd say that Dread did pretty well in November holding that #11 while having to compete with Mario Party Superstars, new Pokémon games and games like Mario Kart and BOTW for new Switch users as we move closer to the holidays.
 
Given how bad the shortage of the PS5 and XBX has been since launch I’m starting to wonder how it’ll impact further game development from both in house and third parties. I think it explains why Sony and Microsoft have started to put current offerings on PC to boost revenue but I think we’ll see development of games currently in the works start targeting the PS4 and XBONE again. As a developer you can’t look at the continued supply starved systems and not start to worry about the available market not being big enough when you release
 
DumbDonkey said:
Given how bad the shortage of the PS5 and XBX has been since launch I’m starting to wonder how it’ll impact further game development from both in house and third parties. I think it explains why Sony and Microsoft have started to put current offerings on PC to boost revenue but I think we’ll see development of games currently in the works start targeting the PS4 and XBONE again. As a developer you can’t look at the continued supply starved systems and not start to worry about the available market not being big enough when you release
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The publishers are too deep in to change anything with respect to their game pipelines, there may be more forced cross-gen stuff.
 
Yeah in normal times a Metroid would drop off a cliff, so it having some staying power is encouraging indeed.

The supply situation for all is fairly astonishing. If this keeps up then I can only see gaming become and even more expensive hobby as demand truly outstrips supply. Developers will have to consider optimising their games to run on as many devices as possible (low end and high end) so that it reaches as wide an audience as possible. Interesting times for the industry
 
Galgavias said:
Yeah in normal times a Metroid would drop off a cliff, so it having some staying power is encouraging indeed.

The supply situation for all is fairly astonishing. If this keeps up then I can only see gaming become and even more expensive hobby as demand truly outstrips supply. Developers will have to consider optimising their games to run on as many devices as possible (low end and high end) so that it reaches as wide an audience as possible. Interesting times for the industry
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From an environmental stand point this might not be such a bad thing. How much electronic waste is generate simply chasing the latest upgrade and is it truly needed at this point with how nice games look on current generation consoles and PC hardware?
 
DumbDonkey said:
From an environmental stand point this might not be such a bad thing. How much electronic waste is generate simply chasing the latest upgrade and is it truly needed at this point with how nice games look on current generation consoles and PC hardware?
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There's definitely an argument to be made there, though that's more a symptom of the Smartphone market than gaming right now, as I'm sure many people keep their old consoles instead of throwing them away (I certainly do).

One thing to consider would be that, given how many people are buying consoles now, perhaps this demand will balance out the environmental impact that longer gens would alleviate.

I can see a scenario in which we pay big bucks to enter the next generation but with these consoles having a lifespan of nearly a decade. Which I would be more than fine with.
 
Sadist said:
I’m starting to wonder if we’re heading towards a loooong generation. One year in and despite being wanted systems, the shortage is really throwing a wrench in Sony and MS plans I reckon.
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Why would not meeting demand at the start make a gen longer?

The Wii was the usual 5-6 years.
 
My Tulpa said:
Why would not meeting demand at the start make a gen longer?

The Wii was the usual 5-6 years.
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There's not meeting demand the Wii way (selling 25M consoles a year) and there's not meeting demand the PS5/XSS way (not selling more than half a million in November).

It's a completely different situation.
 
Galgavias said:
I can see a scenario in which we pay big bucks to enter the next generation but with these consoles having a lifespan of nearly a decade. Which I would be more than fine with.
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That’s a good idea…make some of the consoles parts moddable/upgradable too. We can call it “PC gaming”
 
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Skittzo said:
There's not meeting demand the Wii way (selling 25M consoles a year) and there's not meeting demand the PS5/XSS way (not selling more than half a million in November).

It's a completely different situation.
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Yea I know, I was being tongue in cheek with the Wii comment.

But I really don’t get why people think this year’s sales means an extra long lifecycle. Because early adopters had to pay more to buy one from 3rd market sellers?

Most people buy consoles 2-3 years after launch anyways.
 
My Tulpa said:
Yea I know, I was being tongue in cheek with the Wii comment.

But I really don’t get why people think this year’s sales means an extra long lifecycle. Because early adopters had to pay more to buy one from 3rd market sellers?

Most people buy consoles 2-3 years after launch anyways.
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It's because the big publishers won't feel comfortable making next gen exclusives until their install base is larger, which is going to take more time than usual.
 
My Tulpa said:
Yea I know, I was being tongue in cheek with the Wii comment.

But I really don’t get why people think this year’s sales means an extra long lifecycle. Because early adopters had to pay more to buy one from 3rd market sellers?

Most people buy consoles 2-3 years after launch anyways.
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When a major new platform is only able to ship 500k units IN NOVEMBER, supply is beyond fucked. I can’t even begin to imagine how bad stock is going to be over the next six months. With such a slow start to the generation, it will absolutely last longer. 8-10 years is my guess. Basically most of the 2020s for this console cycle.
 
DumbDonkey said:
From an environmental stand point this might not be such a bad thing. How much electronic waste is generate simply chasing the latest upgrade and is it truly needed at this point with how nice games look on current generation consoles and PC hardware?
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The rising power consumption of gaming hardware is also becoming somewhat troubling. The PS5 uses about 35% more power on average when in use than a launch model PS4. Nvidia's basically challenging how much power you can pump into the PCIe form factor with their latest GPUs, and reports indicate the next wave is going to be even worse.

With that millions that these machines sell, that impact may not be negligible - and as we reach the physical limits of silicon, more power may be the only way to make the improvements gamers expect. Continuous improvement in gaming performance could soon become unsustainable barring a major breakthrough.
 
Skittzo said:
It's because the big publishers won't feel comfortable making next gen exclusives until their install base is larger, which is going to take more time than usual.
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So? It seems like the ps5/Series SX are getting the same amount of “next gen exclusives” in their first 2-3 years on the market than the ps4/one did. Is this not true?

You can’t argue that these new consoles are selling faster than last gen consoles did at launch…and also say big publishers are going to be more concerned about userbase size this gen than last gen. Doesn’t compute with me
 
Jersh said:
The rising power consumption of gaming hardware is also becoming somewhat troubling. The PS5 uses about 35% more power on average when in use than a launch model PS4. Nvidia's basically challenging how much power you can pump into the PCIe form factor with their latest GPUs, and reports indicate the next wave is going to be even worse.

With that millions that these machines sell, that impact may not be negligible - and as we reach the physical limits of silicon, more power may be the only way to make the improvements gamers expect. Continuous improvement in gaming performance could soon become unsustainable barring a major breakthrough.
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Would this be a good time to point out that there was some discontent that Nintendo used Mariko to reduce power consumption rather than increase performance?
 
Beard said:
When a major new platform is only able to ship 500k units IN NOVEMBER, supply is beyond fucked. I can’t even begin to imagine how bad stock is going to be over the next six months. With such a slow start to the generation, it will absolutely last longer. 8-10 years is my guess. Basically most of the 2020s for this console cycle.
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That’s only off ~400k off from a normal first Nov sales for a major new platform. I think there is too much overreaction just based on this.

As if this is going to cause major publishers to completely change their development plans for what platforms they dev for than what they had already planned in 2020.

Aren’t there more ps5’s/Seriesx/SeriesS consoles in peoples hand right now than there were ps4/one this time in 2014?
 
Glom said:
Would this be a good time to point out that there was some discontent that Nintendo used Mariko to reduce power consumption rather than increase performance?
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It could be, but it's also worth noting that a charging launch model Switch playing an intensive docked game uses a little over 10% of the power a launch PS4 does, and less power than a GameCube. When not charging, it's Nintendo's least power hungry home console since the NES. It was already pretty damn efficient.

Of course, it's also their most power hungry handheld ever.
 
My Tulpa said:
So? It seems like the ps5/Series SX are getting the same amount of “next gen exclusives” in their first 2-3 years on the market than the ps4/one did. Is this not true?

You can’t argue that these new consoles are selling faster than last gen consoles did at launch…and also say big publishers are going to be more concerned about userbase size this gen than last gen. Doesn’t compute with me
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The thinking is this cross-gen period will go a lot longer, since shortages won't be resolved until some time in 2023 at the earliest.
My Tulpa said:
Aren’t there more ps5’s/Seriesx/SeriesS consoles in peoples hand right now than there were ps4/one this time in 2014?
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No.

It was trending this way earlier this year but after November PS5/XS is trailing significantly behind PS4/XB1 launch aligned.
 
My Tulpa said:
That’s only off ~400k off from a normal first Nov sales for a major new platform. I think there is too much overreaction just based on this.

As if this is going to cause major publishers to completely change their development plans for what platforms they dev for than what they had already planned in 2020.

Aren’t there more ps5’s/Seriesx/SeriesS consoles in peoples hand right now than there were ps4/one this time in 2014?
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It’s not going to change short term plans to any significant degree, but mid and long term plans will absolutely be affected.
 
Skittzo said:
The thinking is this cross-gen period will go a lot longer, since shortages won't be resolved until some time in 2023 at the earliest.
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I doubt it. I’m sure all the cross gen releases planned for 2022/2023 were planned before the console launches.

I’m sure there will be the same amount of cross gen games in 2022/2023 as there were in 2014/2015. Same amount of “next gen only” stuff.

No.

It was trending this way earlier this year but after November PS5/XS is trailing significantly behind PS4/XB1 launch aligned.
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I dont think that’s exactly true. I’m pretty sure S/X sales worldwide is still ahead of Xbox One launch aligned.

Yea, this holiday period will probably be pretty dire, but I really doubt major publishers are going to completely change their gaming development because of a million or so console difference compared to last gen. Active userbase for their games is more important.

On Resetera, I had people convincing me that ps5 active users/software sales are higher than they were for the ps4 at the same time. Were they wrong?
 
Beard said:
It’s not going to change short term plans to any significant degree, but mid and long term plans will absolutely be affected.
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If there is huge demand not being met, that means everyone who wanted a ps5/X will get one by 2023 when it will be much easier to get one (I bet this will happen in 2022 tbh).

Why would long term development change if the assumption is that everyone who really wanted a ps5/X in 2020-2022 will have one by 2023?
 
Jersh said:
It could be, but it's also worth noting that a charging launch model Switch playing an intensive docked game uses a little over 10% of the power a launch PS4 does, and less power than a GameCube. When not charging, it's Nintendo's least power hungry home console since the NES. It was already pretty damn efficient.

Of course, it's also their most power hungry handheld ever.
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This is the reason I am so amazed at some of the ports of games like Witcher3 or Doom. And why comparisons to machines that guzzle 10 to 30 times as much power are too often ridiculous.
 
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My Tulpa said:
I had people convincing me that ps5 active users/software sales are higher than they were for the ps4 at the same time. Were they wrong?
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It's hard to verify that claim in anycase, but we know PS5 has fallen behind PS4, it was already behind in October from the same Era NPD thread.

It's funny how we went from 'biggest launch in history' to 'its only a flesh wound' less than 12 months apart.
 
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