Luneth
Bob-omb
They have still a lot of GBA games, and just speaking of first party. If they start adding third party games for GBA, 12 games per year, they could have easily 3 more years at least. And we are still lacking key games from N64, first and even third party.Some number thoughts:
Base additions are moving at a solid pace after the last few multi-game updates for GB. 11 GB, 2 NES and 2 SNES titles added so far this year for 15 games coming to the base tier in the first six months of 2024. This compares favourably to the full year totals for 2023 (24 games), 2022 (13), 2021 (12), 2020 (20). If Nintendo kept up the current pace, then 2024 would be the best year for the base tier since 2019, which had 46 additions. My guess is we shouldn't do any worse than last year and we're probably looking at somewhere between 9 and 15 more games coming to the base tier later this year.
Expansion Pack content however is another story. Without new DLC additions and without Mega Drive additions, we're on six titles added so far for this year; 3 on GBA and 3 on N64. That compares to annual totals of 30 (2021) and 28 (2022, 2023) titles in previous years, which also saw the additions of multiple DLCs. Even leaving aside the end of Mario Kart DLC waves, Nintendo are well behind the pace when it comes to classic game additions for the Expansion Pack. Perhaps there's a feeling the cumulative offering - 48 tracks for Mario Kart, Splatoon 2 DLC, Animal Crossing DLC, and ~90 classic games - is justified. However, as I said a few months ago, without the Mega Drive it's become impossible for Nintendo to maintain that pretty consistent 28-30 game pace for the Expansion Pack. And without further DLC offerings, there's a danger some of the work Nintendo have done to improve the Expansion Pack offering since launch now begins to fall somewhat flat.
As far as annual totals go, Nintendo have hit 40 to 50 additions to NSO most of the time (2020, 2021, 2022, 2023). If they keep up the current rate of base tier releases, then they'd achieve that amount again even without improving the pace of EP updates. Based on the current EP pace of 6 titles in 5 months, and 15 base titles in six months, they could hit 42 releases this year by maintaining the current pace. As I speculated a few months ago, the GB and base tier would do the bulk of the heavy lifting in the absence of further EP content beyond roughly monthly GBA/N64 updates.
My assumption for the rest of the year is that the base tier continues as is, with GB dominating the updates but odd NES and SNES titles popping up. The Expansion Pack is more interesting, though. NSO launched in 2018 and got the EP added in 2021. Much like the base tier of NSO after its first two years, the Expansion Pack now appears to be running out of steam a little. It will definitely get monthly updates, but my question really is whether Nintendo feel compelled to refresh the service by either adding another console app, further DLC, or doing something else.
I'm pretty sure the lack of EP update means they are cooking something for the upcoming direct.