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Discussion Miyamoto: If we have a game that sells 30 million units every few years we'll be fine (Interview with Itoi)

I think it’s important to include this.

Miyamoto: As we make various preparations, there are times when something catches our attention and we think, "Huh?" or "This might be something that will turn out well." We can sense such things from the very beginning. However, if we are only thinking about greed or wanting to stabilize our profits, we will overlook this.

Itoi: Yes, if you are only motivated by greed, you will think first about how to avoid losing money. You will inevitably think in terms of the break-even point.

Miyamoto: That's right. I think the most dangerous thing is to miss something that has the potential to grow . I think the good thing about our company is that we've been good at nurturing those seeds .

Which makes sense why franchise like Pikmin and Metroid exist.
Yeah. Arguably Fire Emblem too, which has gone from almost going dormant to a revival that has ended up with it being a series that headlines directs for them. It to Nintendo’s advantage to have a variety of game types. They don’t all need to be 30m sellers, but if one is every few years, then that lets the others continue to experiment and grow.
 
As a platform holder Nintendo has said multiple times they want a diverse lineup with games for everyone. They're well aware that all games arent going to become massive sellers but they still put them out, so basically - if they spawn a massive hit every now and then they can continue to fund by Nintendo standards - niche games like Bayonetta and Astral Chain, new IP like Arms, RFA and Sushi Striker, massive scope games with limited sales potential like the Xeno franchise just to have a very broad and diverse lineup "and they will be fine"

I'm sure no one at Nintendo would look at a Kirby game selling 5M, a Mario Party game selling 20M, a Luigis Mansion game selling 15M, a clubhouse game selling 5M and think.. yeah these are not hits.
Ring Fit Adventure is nowhere close to being niche
 
Before people go crazy with this, just think about how many games Nintendo regularly greenlights that sell like 2-3 million or less, and they just keep making more of them

In the age of rising dev costs, Nintendo having a handful of mega-hits is the reason they don't mind funding stuff like Xenoblade and Fire Emblem
Yep, rising tide raises all ships. I bet its the reason
Microsoft is happy to have cod under their belt now, one mega hit can help to off set the losses of smaller games, hopefully allow
Those games to continue to be made (though after they closed tango who the eff knows lol)
 
He's obviously talking about what's necessary to keep the company afloat. Switch during its 7 years had 4 games that sold more than 30 million, which means that the company is doing well financially and that they can make games from franchises that are not big hits. That explains the resurrection of less successful franchises lately.

That is what I get out of the interview. Miyamoto understands that not every game is going to be a massive hit, but if they get that 1 or 2 games that are blockbuster hits, it gives Nintendo some breathing room for other smaller projects that don't require, nor have a desire for such huge sales numbers.

It's probably why a game like Metroid Prime 4: Beyond actually exists to be honest. Say fifteen years ago, if Prime 4 was announced in 2009, and then two years later in 2011, it was discovered the development wasn't going well, and "up to our standards," guarantee Nintendo would've cancelled the project outright, and moved on with the franchise.

I think another takeaway is Miyamoto wants the developers to do the best job they can with new titles, and they shouldn't go into this mindset of, "Well, we know this game won't be a big hit, so let's not put all our might into it." Miyamoto would disagree with that, as the Google Translation actually says. Plus, Miyamoto also said this, (Through Google Translate):

"I think the most danger this to miss something that has the potential to turn into something great. I think the good thing about our company is that we've been good at nurturing these kinds of seeds ."

Given Miyamoto is a gardener, and loves to garden, he understands (plus anyone here who also gardens), you want the end result to be worth it. You're not striving to "break-even." You want a payoff for your work, and I think that is what he's getting at mostly.

The translation though is confusing, and as such the wording is off for sure.
 
this sentence seems more to imply that a single 30 million hit can carry the company through a year. Nintendo releases like 8-10 games a year though, with one or two of them generally being a +10 million seller, while the others end up somewhere in the 2-3m range. Seems good enough. This also doesn't take into account what Nintendo wins from multimedia ventures such as merch, movies and theme parks.
 
Nintendo were asked by a shareholder about Nintendo's strategy to avoid longer development time for games and Shinya Takahashi and Takashi Tezuka confirmed that one key factor will be that Nintendo plans to continue to make smaller, lower budget games in the future.



So no need to worry that Nintendo will only make AAA games for the Switch 2.
 
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Reading into Miyamoto's quote more now that I've had more time to think about it: what I gather from this is that Nintendo basically use their highest selling games - 3D Mario, 3D Zelda, Pokemon, Splatoon, which have massive appeal - to get people to buy their system, which in turn benfits their more niche IPs and gets them more sales for stuff like Xenoblade, Bayonetta, Fire Emblem, etc and gets more passion projects approved. Nintendo really doesn't see the need to spend hundreds of millions of dollars (or yen) on one 3D Zelda or 3D Mario title, because they want as much variety in their first party titles as possible and don't put all their eggs in one basket. I wish more developers would do stuff like this, tbh.
 
Hello, I have never worked in a sales department and have only ever worked around people who tell me second-hand information about P&L metrics for the games industry. Allow me to give you all my take on this:

I think, beyond the initial translation probably lacking a bit of context or clarity in some sense, that the interpretation from a lot of people here is too literal or rigid. 1 million units by most accounts is not a "huge hit", but 1 million on a low budget does not mean a good profit or a minor success. Sometimes you can be a small hit, a cult classic. Sometimes you're a pretty big hit, you sell 10 million. On rare occasion, you're a gigahit and you sell 30 million! And so on...

IMO I think the reason Miyamoto used that 30 million metric specifically is because those titles (Smash, Kart, BOTW and AC) have been long-term sellers and have greatly aided the annual and quartely revenues of the company, meaning their cash flow can generally sustain operations in parallel, as opposed to having large, inconsistent increases in revenue relative to game launches. Nintendo is a huge company, it takes a lot of money to keep the lights on there.

Keep in mind, Miyamoto is talking to Shigesato Itoi. This is not a room of shareholders or business people, and Nintendo's sold very few 30M-sellers. I don't think they LITERALLY have to sell 30 million, he was likely using such a large number to give an example of what that sort of success looks like to an audience of people who's heads are casually removed from the biz.


Kit and Krysta seemed to think so earlier...

In regards to this, TOTK's case is nuanced, and it's that nuance which is kind of why I think it's frustrating that people will jump to conclusions off of something as negligible as a loose, generalized statement made to a casual audience of viewers from someone who doesn't manage sales. TOTK had a HUGE burst of sales initially (18 million!) and immediately trailed off, having grown very little in the year since it's release, whereas BOTW saw consistent growth following its launch. In some sense, that's pretty disappointing. On another though, supposing Nintendo spent 70 million dollars on it, they've made a rough profit of nearly 1 Billion~ off that investment. That's still a HUGE success.

There can be endless discussion on why people think TOTK underperformed those long term sales, but fact of the matter is that TOTK doesn't have legs, and Nintendo can find that disappointing while ALSO considering it a financial success. Things have nuance.
 
Hello, I have never worked in a sales department and have only ever worked around people who tell me second-hand information about P&L metrics for the games industry. Allow me to give you all my take on this:

I think, beyond the initial translation probably lacking a bit of context or clarity in some sense, that the interpretation from a lot of people here is too literal or rigid. 1 million units by most accounts is not a "huge hit", but 1 million on a low budget does not mean a good profit or a minor success. Sometimes you can be a small hit, a cult classic. Sometimes you're a pretty big hit, you sell 10 million. On rare occasion, you're a gigahit and you sell 30 million! And so on...

IMO I think the reason Miyamoto used that 30 million metric specifically is because those titles (Smash, Kart, BOTW and AC) have been long-term sellers and have greatly aided the annual and quartely revenues of the company, meaning their cash flow can generally sustain operations in parallel, as opposed to having large, inconsistent increases in revenue relative to game launches. Nintendo is a huge company, it takes a lot of money to keep the lights on there.

Keep in mind, Miyamoto is talking to Shigesato Itoi. This is not a room of shareholders or business people, and Nintendo's sold very few 30M-sellers. I don't think they LITERALLY have to sell 30 million, he was likely using such a large number to give an example of what that sort of success looks like to an audience of people who's heads are casually removed from the biz.



In regards to this, TOTK's case is nuanced, and it's that nuance which is kind of why I think it's frustrating that people will jump to conclusions off of something as negligible as a loose, generalized statement made to a casual audience of viewers from someone who doesn't manage sales. TOTK had a HUGE burst of sales initially (18 million!) and immediately trailed off, having grown very little in the year since it's release, whereas BOTW saw consistent growth following its launch. In some sense, that's pretty disappointing. On another though, supposing Nintendo spent 70 million dollars on it, they've made a rough profit of nearly 1 Billion~ off that investment. That's still a HUGE success.

There can be endless discussion on why people think TOTK underperformed those long term sales, but fact of the matter is that TOTK doesn't have legs, and Nintendo can find that disappointing while ALSO considering it a financial success. Things have nuance.
It's hard to know how Nintendo calculated the cost of TOTK, though, because if the development cost was $70 million, that means there was also a significant portion of promotional and advertising costs, and the total cost must have topped $100 million, possibly $140 million.
 
It's hard to know how Nintendo calculated the cost of TOTK, though, because if the development cost was $70 million, that means there was also a significant portion of promotional and advertising costs, and the total cost must have topped $100 million, possibly $140 million.
I don't have anything concrete to aid my suspicion here but I do personally think their total investment into TOTK was in the 70-90 million threshold (much closer to the lower end) and I do not think their marketing brought them above 100 million.
 
I don't have anything concrete to aid my suspicion here but I do personally think their total investment into TOTK was in the 70-90 million threshold (much closer to the lower end) and I do not think their marketing brought them above 100 million.
Yes, I too came to that conclusion out of inflated calculations, and I do have a gut feeling they should have invested around $100 million in TOTK rather than higher.
 
Yep, rising tide raises all ships. I bet its the reason
Microsoft is happy to have cod under their belt now, one mega hit can help to off set the losses of smaller games, hopefully allow
Those games to continue to be made (though after they closed tango who the eff knows lol)
🌃 Lmfao no. Microsoft is only in the business of mega hits since the actiblizz purchase and that's why they buggered tango and a4kane because they're nit going to make bloody enormous bloody successful games. Their thinking is if they have all these massive games anything else is just a waste of money. Expect more closures or restructuring in the next few years
 
In regards to this, TOTK's case is nuanced, and it's that nuance which is kind of why I think it's frustrating that people will jump to conclusions off of something as negligible as a loose, generalized statement made to a casual audience of viewers from someone who doesn't manage sales. TOTK had a HUGE burst of sales initially (18 million!) and immediately trailed off, having grown very little in the year since it's release, whereas BOTW saw consistent growth following its launch. In some sense, that's pretty disappointing. On another though, supposing Nintendo spent 70 million dollars on it, they've made a rough profit of nearly 1 Billion~ off that investment. That's still a HUGE success.

There can be endless discussion on why people think TOTK underperformed those long term sales, but fact of the matter is that TOTK doesn't have legs, and Nintendo can find that disappointing while ALSO considering it a financial success. Things have nuance.
Thing is, if the initial burst of sales is so huge, then that just means you made your profit sooner rather than later. So why would TOTK trailing off even matter anymore if you've already gotten such a phenomenal result?
 
Thing is, if the initial burst of sales is so huge, then that just means you made your profit sooner rather than later. So why would TOTK trailing off even matter anymore if you've already gotten such a phenomenal result?
If Nintendo expected it to become an evergreen in the same manner as the original BOTW, then it's a bit disappointing because with an evergreen, the idea isn't necessarily about getting all the money right out of the gate, but having a product that will continue selling strongly even months or years later, so you have a nice, dependable stream of income every quarter.
 
If Nintendo expected it to become an evergreen in the same manner as the original BOTW, then it's a bit disappointing because with an evergreen, the idea isn't necessarily about getting all the money right out of the gate, but having a product that will continue selling strongly even months or years later, so you have a nice, dependable stream of income every quarter.
This argument doesn't necessarily hold water in my opinion, Nintendo's biggest feat in the switch generation was lifting the Legend of Zelda, which previously stopped at less than 9 million copies sold, into a 20 million level series. The Legend of Zelda was basically on par with 3d Mario within the company during the Satoru Iwata era, and even more so now, and I don't think they'd be any less happy with the results at this stage.
 
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🌃 Lmfao no. Microsoft is only in the business of mega hits since the actiblizz purchase and that's why they buggered tango and a4kane because they're nit going to make bloody enormous bloody successful games. Their thinking is if they have all these massive games anything else is just a waste of money. Expect more closures or restructuring in the next few years
Agree to disagree : )
 
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This is not to read as "we need every game to hit 30M of else says bye bye" but it read as "we need 30m sales once in a while to keep thing afloat and make all those 1m possible"
 
30 million seems way too high to me. The Switch was lucky to have a few over 30 million. Other consoles weren't. Switch 2 will not be as lucky lol.

This has to be an exaggeration. I'm sure with their budgets like 5 million + is amazing. 30 million is like epoch-making.

Twilight Princess (previous record holder) hit 9.9 mil ish.

I'd expect franchises to drop back down a bit.
 
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If Nintendo expected it to become an evergreen in the same manner as the original BOTW, then it's a bit disappointing because with an evergreen, the idea isn't necessarily about getting all the money right out of the gate, but having a product that will continue selling strongly even months or years later, so you have a nice, dependable stream of income every quarter.
Nintendo has enough experience to know that sequels on the same console aren't going to hit the same heights as the first release. Did they really expect anything other than "TOTK slowly but surely gets to 20M?" If they didn't, then there's no downside to TOTK instead having these sales be frontloaded. If they did, then they weren't paying attention.
 
Nintendo has enough experience to know that sequels on the same console aren't going to hit the same heights as the first release. Did they really expect anything other than "TOTK slowly but surely gets to 20M?" If they didn't, then there's no downside to TOTK instead having these sales be frontloaded. If they did, then they weren't paying attention.
lol yeah it doesn't make sense. And bet the next one will be less than 20 million.
 
30 million seems way too high to me. The Switch was lucky to have a few over 30 million. Other consoles weren't. Switch 2 will not be as lucky lol.

This has to be an exaggeration. I'm sure with their budgets like 5 million + is amazing. 30 million is like epoch-making.

Twilight Princess (previous record holder) hit 9.9 mil ish.

I'd expect franchises to drop back down a bit.
Not expecting switch2 to be as successful as switch1, but if switch2 ends up selling around 120 to 130 million in its career, there will still be three to four 30 million level games for sure, like the new Mario Kart and the new AC and smash. The new 3d Mario and 3d Zelda will both be in the 20 million level.
 
Nintendo has enough experience to know that sequels on the same console aren't going to hit the same heights as the first release. Did they really expect anything other than "TOTK slowly but surely gets to 20M?" If they didn't, then there's no downside to TOTK instead having these sales be frontloaded. If they did, then they weren't paying attention.
Just looking at the sales trajectory, totk sold roughly between 300,000 and 400,000 in one quarter of this year, so for reference 2020 botw's sales were over 21 million. I think another big reason other than direct sequels not being able to reach the sales heights of their predecessors is that the switch is entering its end of life and totk is doing incredibly well compared to SS.
 
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There's no guarantee you will keep the entire audience that bought your game. (when it blew up and became a cultural/gaming phenomenon (BotW - Odyssey))

Every time I look at PlayStation trophy data for example.. it's like "wow ... only 50% (or less) of people even beat the story?" lol

The 30 million + sellers will be Mario Kart, Smash maybe and maybe animal crossing. Just the really casual friendly/fun games to play when people come over type stuff.
 
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I did wonder already if it would’ve been smarter to withhold a new 3D Zelda for the new console. The sheer hunger for BotW on WiiU and then later especially on Switch helped the game gain new popularity. A shiny new Switch 2 version of TotK (possibly even cross-gen with OG Switch) might have had a somewhat similar effect to that of BotW back in 2017. If it had offered a clear and recognisable advantage on new hardware over the OG Switch version, that is.
 
There's no guarantee you will keep the entire audience that bought your game. (when it blew up and became a cultural/gaming phenomenon (BotW - Odyssey))

Every time I look at PlayStation trophy data for example.. it's like "wow ... only 50% (or less) of people even beat the story?" lol

The 30 million + sellers will be Mario Kart, Smash maybe and maybe animal crossing. Just the really casual friendly/fun games to play when people come over type stuff.
If you look at the numbers on Steam, it's usually 30%.
 
So, the reason why I don't praise my co-workers half-heartedly along the way is because, anyway, the reason I think it was good to work with them is because "we sell a lot."

The little flashes of asshole Miyamoto are pretty wild.
 
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What Miyamoto is saying is basically, aim for the sky even if you fail many times. It shows the mentality of Nintendo to always look for the next big hit. They did it with Zelda and Animal Crossing, next up may be something like Pikmin, who knows. All he's saying is that the developers should always think of ways to make a game more popular and hit a broader audience.
 
I did wonder already if it would’ve been smarter to withhold a new 3D Zelda for the new console. The sheer hunger for BotW on WiiU and then later especially on Switch helped the game gain new popularity. A shiny new Switch 2 version of TotK (possibly even cross-gen with OG Switch) might have had a somewhat similar effect to that of BotW back in 2017. If it had offered a clear and recognisable advantage on new hardware over the OG Switch version, that is.
TotK is just way too similar to BotW (which is still selling and partly cannibalizing its sales), I'm not sure it was ever going to be a phenomenon on the level of BotW. They probably want a clean cut between the Switch 1 and Switch 2 Zeldas.
 
If Nintendo expected it to become an evergreen in the same manner as the original BOTW, then it's a bit disappointing because with an evergreen, the idea isn't necessarily about getting all the money right out of the gate, but having a product that will continue selling strongly even months or years later, so you have a nice, dependable stream of income every quarter.

the idea that it would become evergreen in the end years of Switch life is kinda silly to begin with though.

BotW had the entirety of Switch's prime life, while Totk caught the backend when software inevitably falls by a lot. like of course that's in consideration for them.
 
If you think about it, all they have to do is spread out the new Pokemon gens to every 5 years and have a remake between. Boom 30 million sellers.
 
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Miyamoto is a legendary developer but seems like a kinda shitty boss.


That said, Nintendo has extremely high employee retention, so I guess workers have something giving them a reason to stay.

what the genuine fuck this is real? absolutely dystopian level stuff
 
what the genuine fuck this is real? absolutely dystopian level stuff
Yeah, I've experienced it. When I started grad school, the then-director, on one of the first meetings and consequent meetings would say stuff like: "In my days people sleep in their office",etc. We work in the summer as instructors and we basically had 12+ hours shifts most days. It was a pretty rigid work mentality that actually made 3 of my colleagues either quit or move programs.
 
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what the genuine fuck this is real? absolutely dystopian level stuff
Nintendo expat employees at the time have said that the development atmosphere of Mario 64 was very depressing, which is what actually happened to Japanese companies of that era due to the massive escalation in workload and number of developers in the face of the wave of 3dization. And the change first appeared in the Tokyo development team, who switched to a roundtable idea development model when making Mario Galaxy, where everyone was eligible to present ideas at the roundtable and vote on them collectively, a system that was later popularized throughout Nintendo during the wiiu and switch eras, and under which BOTW was born.
 
I think people are misinterpreting his comments as cold and business-centric, whereas to me it's quite clear that he is saying if you're only making games to break even instead of trying to make big hits that bring people joy, it's a drain on your creativity and career.

"If a book that was difficult or painful sells well and becomes a hot topic, everyone will be happy."

And later:

"Suppose we just barely exceed the break-even point, and we end up with no loss, what will be left is just 'I'm tired.' We worked hard, but we only made money...I think everyone is working hard day in and day out to make it a big hit, and to say, 'I can't stop laughing.'"

It's very clear that he's speaking to the importance of creativity, always giving 100%, and being observant in order to look for creative, new ideas and framing these observations from a business perspective to fit the seminar he's speaking at.
Yeah the headlines about this are so eyeroll worthy

Just as with the PM discourse we've come full circle to Miyamoto always being the bad guy for some reason
 
Miyamoto-san, the father of wise words like
“A delayed game is eventually good, but it also better sell 30-fucking-million units.”
 
Yeah the headlines about this are so eyeroll worthy

Just as with the PM discourse we've come full circle to Miyamoto always being the bad guy for some reason
🌃 That's because while he is a good creator, there's so many stories from employees about him being a colossal drongo that it's not surprising that he says some stuff that's taken badly. He forced the people on Mariio Galaxy 2 to make don't planets despite the engine not really supporting that, and stories from metroid prime's development had them also constantly fight Miyamotos bizarre requests.
 
🌃 That's because while he is a good creator, there's so many stories from employees about him being a colossal drongo that it's not surprising that he says some stuff that's taken badly. He forced the people on Mariio Galaxy 2 to make don't planets despite the engine not really supporting that, and stories from metroid prime's development had them also constantly fight Miyamotos bizarre requests.
This is a fundamental difference between Japanese developer and American developer, and I wouldn't recommend adding more moral judgment here.
 
That's fair, he just sounds horrible to work for IMO. Still, I've never been in any meaningful employment due to life long disability so I don't know much.
The simple explanation is that from an American perspective many Japanese developers (mainly producers) have an attribute of being dictators, but that's not actually true, it's just the power structure of the Japanese game industry that dictates it. In fact Nintendo's overtime issues were already considered relatively mild throughout the Japanese industry at that point.
 
and stories from metroid prime's development had them also constantly fight Miyamotos bizarre requests.
I absolutely don't have the details about this situation, but I was assuming that Metroid Prime was in a bad state when Miyamoto did not want to show it at E3 2001. So I assumed that it was also his requests had improved the game significantly. Was I wrong all these years?
 
I absolutely don't have the details about this situation, but I was assuming that Metroid Prime was in a bad state when Miyamoto did not want to show it at E3 2001. So I assumed that it was also his requests had improved the game significantly. Was I wrong all these years?
As far as I understand you're right going by the fact that both Tanabe and Shigeru Miyamoto, their importance to project management cannot be overstated, and Shigeru Miyamoto both screwed up something (TWW) and saved something (prime, Oracle of Seasons and Oracle of Ages, TP) 20 years ago.
 


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