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Discussion I think Nintendo has evolved to a point where failure is extremely unlikely

Ahhh, I remember when people used to say this after the Wii

This time I agree tho, in very large part because of the reasons you listed
 
Even thought the console will probably be iterative I hope they choose a better or safe name this time.
Like Switch 2 instead of Switcho or Switwo.
 
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I think what happened to Wii U after the Wii has got me spooked for the rest of my life. I won't speak on DS to 3DS but that wasn't catastrophic; games-wise, the 3DS is my favorite. Anyway, I'll always be worried every time Nintendo puts out a successor. The Boogeyman of failure is present everlasting.
 
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I will say that the next iteration will have to be an unprecedented failure in order for Nintendo to lose the momentum they have. One aspect of the Wii U's failure that I think is a bit overlooked is that the Wii branding was already dying very rapidly, as that console was not able to keep up its momentum in the second half of its lifespan. We all remember Wii being a tremendous success, but the reality was that its userbase mostly moved on around 2010 or so and the sales went stagnant. While the Wii U's branding and marketing was extremely confusing, I don't think it would have been much more of a success even if it was called Wii 2, as the Wii name had lost a lot of steam and was mostly just seen as a fad that passed.

The Switch, on the other hand, is in its seventh year and is still selling extremely well and getting tons of software support. Something called Switch 2 is primed for success at this point. I don't think we have anything to worry about, because to get them to lose the momentum they have, they would have to make a colossal mistake which seems unlikely.
 
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So many of my friends who have Switches were kids who got a DS for Pokemon, Nintendogs or Mario Kart and the market prominence of the Switch has made them nostalgic or excited to dip back in. That audience has now been added to by those under 18 right now, falling in love with all this for the first time. I think any Nintendo misstep will be recaptured and rebuilt before too long for a few generations yet to come.
 
I think there’s a chance that the next console performs worse, or has some mindboggling gimmick that makes it perform worse than switch, yeah.

But I do get what OP means. The switch isn’t just selling well, Nintendo’s IP are extremely healthy all around. They feel more in the general public mindshare than they’ve ever been, which is something that automatically will put Nintendo above GC/Wii U tier even if the next system underperforms relative to Switch. The bar has been raised for Nintendo’s general popularity.
 
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Demographically speaking we've seen with the Switch that there is a much wider base of "core" gamers in the audience, people who were not just the requisite Nintendo fans, but rather people who were brought back in from other ecosystems. We know that there is also a lot of cross platform ownership in the Switch base too. These types of gamers should be more reliable in being return customers for next gen, than what they had during the Wii/DS era. So even if there is some drop off or reluctance from the group that only bought one for things like Animal Crossing or Ring Fit during the pandemic, Nintendo should still have a lot to work with going into next gen to get off to a good start, and to have a lot of chatter/buzz on social media and from streaming.
 
I think they're pretty safe for now, but you never know. Their next console could be something quirky. Eventually Microsoft and/or Sony might decide that they are going to do a hybrid console too, so Nintendo might not be the only player in that game.
 
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If we look back through history, Nintendo has only diverged into something 'quirky' when it made sense to try to pivot into new markets:

  • Virtual Boy was not a mainline console. Nintendo just wanted see what kind of potential the emerging VR market had to offer
  • Wii came at the end of Nintendo on a downward trajectory in the home console market for several generations
  • Wii cratered fast and third party software support quickly devolved into shovelware, and the software situation + user base of "non gamers" was entirely unstable
  • Wii U was a half measure towards the hybrid they wanted to make but couldn't because the technology was not ready

It's just not going to happen with the Switch successor. If it makes sense to add a new feature to the formula they will but you will absolutely not see any attempt at a paradigm shift this time out. Nintendo themselves are in a constant state of evolution and are not even the same company they were ten years ago from the top down.
 
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BassForever said:
This is worse than people arguing FF15 crawled to 10 million copies sold. 76 million is still 76 million. Thay's more than every Xbox outside of the 360 and every Nintendo tv console except the wii. Everyone would happily take a console that averaged 10 million units a year over the course of its life.
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The 3DS sold fewer hardware units (and barely more software units) than the GBA, despite having several orders of magnitude more company resources poured into it (to the point where their home console got sacrificed in the process).

There’s no way to spin that as a success. It was a salvage project that kept them going during dark times, but it was far from the success it’s made out to be; especially when it comes to software sales.
 
I can see the reasoning. It's easy to think of the Switch as something Nintendo can keep iterating on for a few generations with guaranteed success, sort of like what Apple does with the iPhone.

But the gaming landscape seems way more volatile and prone to evolution than the smartphone market. So while the Switch and Nintendo's stellar first-party software might be awesome enough to keep this train going, I feel disruptive changes in gaming as a whole can end up shifting that positive tide.
 
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They are arguably in the best position they have ever been. We know the specs of the new hardware, and it's gonna be undoubtedly super successful as well.
 
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rickyson33 said:
I guess there's always the possibility of them centering a new console around some weird gimmick nobody wants and hurting themselves that way

as long as they don't actively shoot themselves in the foot though sure
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Yeah. They are not doomed, but a couple of failed consoles would really hurt them.

I do not think they will make two wiiu-like failures though
 
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they’re at their worst when they stick to a certain formula for too long. They have popular ip but they have ups and downs like any other company. I think they should ride out the Switch popularity as long as they can but once Sony and others enter the hybrid market they will have to do something else.
 
Dcubed said:
If there's anything that Nintendo have proven over the past 40 odd years is that they are the masters of screwing up a sure thing.

Never assume that Nintendo will do the obvious.
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But none of Nintendo’s consoles have ever been a sure thing. Nintendo is not Sony
 
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They are in probably a better position now than before. Nintendo is not afraid to fill their lineups with smaller scale projects in spite of current industry standards, and is more willing than ever to let their IP go in the hands of smaller devs if they make interesting pitches.

Nintendo was able to revive the stillborn 3DS despite its horrendous start even if it came at the cost of the Wii U and the cost of a lot of 3rd party support.

But the 3DS shows that Nintendo's lineup is strong enough to hold a machine. Even if more limited than before (DS > 3DS) that doesn't mean they're failure proof, but they're at least able to weather it.
 
k samedi said:
they’re at their worst when they stick to a certain formula for too long. They have popular ip but they have ups and downs like any other company. I think they should ride out the Switch popularity as long as they can but once Sony and others enter the hybrid market they will have to do something else.
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Sony has gotten demolished by Nintendo every time they tried to approach the handheld market. Nintendo are the undefeated pick up and play kings. The hybrid market may not be quite the same thing, but it doesn't align with Sony's corporate philosophies in that they are trying to push out the most cutting edge possible image quality to display on their televisions. Delivering a hybrid would undermine this as it would be in a small form factor, have a screen and a battery life. This is why Nintendo remains completely uncontested in the hybrid market.
 
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k samedi said:
they’re at their worst when they stick to a certain formula for too long. They have popular ip but they have ups and downs like any other company. I think they should ride out the Switch popularity as long as they can but once Sony and others enter the hybrid market they will have to do something else.
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I’m not sure why they would have to do something else if Sony & others potentially enter the hybrid market. Their position should be stable by the time th use companies attempt to compete against Nintendo; even if they did bloat don’t have the content to do so anyway as we saw in the handheld market.
 
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