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Discussion I think Nintendo has evolved to a point where failure is extremely unlikely

Kreese

Kreese

Koopa
Banned
The factors I'm looking at that differentiate current Nintendo from past Nintendo:

  • the growing popularity of their IP through games, movies, theme parks ect. reaching a point of critical mass where they have become a cultural mainstay
  • finding their place in the market with the hybrid form factor
  • their technological partnership with Nvidia
  • no longer having to reinvent the wheel and being the high risk taking Nintendo coming off the desperate times of the GC era
  • a steady stream of third party games with the continued growth of the indie market
  • finally coming into their own with HD development and a steady stream of first party games which have been some of the highest quality we have ever seen from them across the board, heavy drought seasons seemingly a thing of the past
  • sound marketing and managerial decision making

Even during the Wii/3DS boom times, the software situation wasn't entirely healthy and my confidence in Nintendo wasn't nearly as high.

I get that Nintendo have been prone to screw ups in the past, but I feel that with their current position in the market, management, and development infrastructure, failure has become increasingly unlikely.
 
I guess there's always the possibility of them centering a new console around some weird gimmick nobody wants and hurting themselves that way

as long as they don't actively shoot themselves in the foot though sure
 
TheSpaceBetween said:
Wait a minute. Are you telling me that Ninten isn't actually doomed?
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What a timeline


On a serious way, they could be seriosly injured by stupid decisions in architecture and marketing (get a second job anyway), but 'm confident that they're not so idiots.
 
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If there's anything that Nintendo have proven over the past 40 odd years is that they are the masters of screwing up a sure thing.

Never assume that Nintendo will do the obvious.
 
You'd probably have to add what you define as "failure" before making that statement. Are we talking about literally going under? Next console selling badly? Not releasing ARMS 2?
 
Eh... i dunno

Nintendo seemed like they could do no wrong after SNES and Game Boy, then the N64 happened.

And then Gamecube happened

And they seemed invincible again after DS and Wii, and Wii U happened

Same with Sony and PS3

Same with Microsoft and Xbox One

The videogame market is very volatile, the slightest mistake can undo years of success and drag the biggest and most powerful company through the mud. Furukawa already said it: They're in an uncharted territory for them now, if they fuck up the transition again they may find themselves in another Wii U situation.
 
Nintendo definitely can (and probably will) make mistakes in the short term, but their cash and assets can keep them afloat during rough periods for a long time. In the long term, though, they will be fine I'm sure.
 
I agree that the probability of this seems lower than ever.
People mention DS/Wii but in fact the Wii started loosing steam very fast and attracted a lot of negativity towards the end of its (rather short) life span. In the past (at least since the N64) Nintendo repeatedly had quite severe software droughts for longer periods and often faced kinda short (home) console life cycles.

With the unification of the handheld + home console software teams / the hybrid form factor they seemed to have alleviated a lot of these issues. Their IPs are stronger than ever across the board. Unless they really wanna go crazy with the next piece of hardware, I think for now things are looking better than ever heading into the next gen.

This was not the case for any of their home consoles, not since the NES -> SNES transition I would say.
 
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Nintendo, on it's own, is pretty safe even if the next system is a worse bomb than Wii U.

They can always fall back on their IP power, especially now since even more of them became huge and due to the cross-media-efforts for their big ones.

But the situation with 3rds however, is shaky.
I feel like it only takes a "semi-bomb" like the Cube for 3rds to immediatly jump ship again.
 
Reinhard Schneider said:
Eh... i dunno

Nintendo seemed like they could do no wrong after SNES and Game Boy, then the N64 happened.

And then Gamecube happened

And they seemed invincible again after DS and Wii, and Wii U happened

Same with Sony and PS3

Same with Microsoft and Xbox One

The videogame market is very volatile, the slightest mistake can undo years of success and drag the biggest and most powerful company through the mud. Furukawa already said it: They're in an uncharted territory for them now, if they fuck up the transition again they may find themselves in another Wii U situation.
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It's a lot simpler then that

Nintendo handheld + Pokemon = at least 80 million sold

Even during the early wiiu/3ds era when it seemed like mobile really could destroy Nintendo's handheld domination, Nintendo turned the 3ds around and got to that ~80 million.

I feel like as long as Nintendo continues the 1 hybrid system approach they'll probably be able to cement their spot in the industry for a long while.
 
BassForever said:
It's a lot simpler then that

Nintendo handheld + Pokemon = at least 80 million sold

Even during the early wiiu/3ds era when it seemed like mobile really could destroy Nintendo's handheld domination, Nintendo turned the 3ds around and got to that ~80 million.

I feel like as long as Nintendo continues the 1 hybrid system approach they'll probably be able to cement their spot in the industry for a long while.
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That was true to an extend, but i think the Switch has easily gone beyond that. In fact, one could easily argue that what helped the DS to take off was not Pokémon, but the one-two punch of the DS Lite and Nintendogs/Touch Generations lineup. Likewise, 3DS took off thanks to a price cut and a new batch of games that made its library more appealing. In both cases, Pokémon was a boost more than anything else.

While Switch is a handheld in the strict meaning of the word, i think it's a different beast from Nintendo's previous handhelds and should not be held by the same standard. What makes the Switch the beast it is is a mixture of messaging, library and convenience, that console just hits the spot and Pokémon, again, was an additional boost - though with the Switch it seems like every high profile game is a boost.

Nintendo must be on the edge as they prepare the marketing campaign for the Succ, being a hybrid doesn't guarantee success, we should remember what happened to the PSP go

18hetlidnz61gjpg.jpg
 
They have all their eggs in one basket so they will always be fairly vulnerable when every other major player is more diversified and capable of withstanding greater shock.
 
Reinhard Schneider said:
That was true to an extend, but i think the Switch has easily gone beyond that. In fact, one could easily argue that what helped the DS to take off was not Pokémon, but the one-two punch of the DS Lite and Nintendogs/Touch Generations lineup. Likewise, 3DS took off thanks to a price cut and a new batch of games that made its library more appealing. In both cases, Pokémon was a boost more than anything else.

While Switch is a handheld in the strict meaning of the word, i think it's a different beast from Nintendo's previous handhelds and should not be held by the same standard. What makes the Switch the beast it is is a mixture of messaging, library and convenience, that console just hits the spot and Pokémon, again, was an additional boost - though with the Switch it seems like every high profile game is a boost.

Nintendo must be on the edge as they prepare the marketing campaign for the Succ, being a hybrid doesn't guarantee success, we should remember what happened to the PSP go

18hetlidnz61gjpg.jpg
Click to expand...
Do you remember the psp go? A $250 physical less handheld sku in 2009 was never going to be a success, especially with Sony's proprietary memory cards and no program for umd owners to covert their physical library to digital. The fact it had video out was irrelevant to 90% of the people who ever considered buying the device. Also it didn't have Pokemon, and was the 4th version of the already successful PSP, so your comparison is even worse.

For context the ps3 was $300, and the psp 3000 was $200 when Sony tried to sell people on the go.
 
BassForever said:
Do you remember the psp go? A $250 physical less handheld sku in 2009 was never going to be a success, especially with Sony's proprietary memory cards and no program for umd owners to covert their physical library to digital. The fact it had video out was irrelevant to 90% of the people who ever considered buying the device. Also it didn't have Pokemon, and was the 4th version of the already successful PSP, so your comparison is even worse.

For context the ps3 was $300, and the psp 3000 was $200 when Sony tried to sell people on the go.
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Yes, i DO remember, i was already in my twenties when it came out, i wanted one with all my might but was tight on money so i couldn't afford it.

The reason why i mentioned it is because it fits the criteria of being a hybrid - i could even go further and talk about the Sega Nomad - but nothing else, and i honestly don't think having Pokémon is enough for a platform to earn success.

It being a revision allows us to make a - reverse - comparision:

860-h0.jpg


Why isn't the Lite taking the world by the storm? It's a full fledged handheld, it has Pokémon, but isn it the worst selling revision/variant of the Switch?

Yes, it is, and there's a reason for that: This stuff isn't black or white, you can't just have a handheld with Pokémon and rake millions, for the Succ to be a raging success being a hybrid that plays Pokémon will be far from enough.
 
Reinhard Schneider said:
Yes, i DO remember, i was already in my twenties when it came out, i wanted one with all my might but was tight on money so i couldn't afford it.

The reason why i mentioned it is because it fits the criteria of being a hybrid - i could even go further and talk about the Sega Nomad - but nothing else, and i honestly don't think having Pokémon is enough for a platform to earn success.

It being a revision allows us to make a - reverse - comparision:

860-h0.jpg


Why isn't the Lite taking the world by the storm? It's a full fledged handheld, it has Pokémon, but isn it the worst selling revision/variant of the Switch?

Yes, it is, and there's a reason for that: This stuff isn't black or white, you can't just have a handheld with Pokémon and rake millions, for the Succ to be a raging success being a hybrid that plays Pokémon will be far from enough.
Click to expand...
Because the lite came out after the original Switch, this isn't hard to figure out. You keep presenting hardware revisions as a counter to my claim like they matter at all. Hardware revisions have different sales expectations then new hardware generations.
 
BassForever said:
Because the lite came out after the original Switch, this isn't hard to figure out. You keep presenting hardware revisions as a counter to my claim like they matter at all. Hardware revisions have different sales expectations then new hardware generations.
Click to expand...
Because you keep making absolute claims, when this stuff is way more complex than that, plus we have at least one exaple of a console that took off after the release of a revision, meaning that revisions can really push hardware when done correctly.

Also, you keep using Pokémon as an ingredient of surefire success, when in this generation we learned that TPCi wont release a mainline game in a console that isn't a surefire success - Can't remember the source now, but TPCi was wary of the Switch after the Wii U failed, reason why they didn't build a new engine for it.
 
Imo any company can fail really hard if they mess up. The seem bullet proof because they do a pretty good job. But they need to keep it up.
 
Reinhard Schneider said:
Yes, i DO remember, i was already in my twenties when it came out, i wanted one with all my might but was tight on money so i couldn't afford it.

The reason why i mentioned it is because it fits the criteria of being a hybrid - i could even go further and talk about the Sega Nomad - but nothing else, and i honestly don't think having Pokémon is enough for a platform to earn success.

It being a revision allows us to make a - reverse - comparision:

860-h0.jpg


Why isn't the Lite taking the world by the storm? It's a full fledged handheld, it has Pokémon, but isn it the worst selling revision/variant of the Switch?

Yes, it is, and there's a reason for that: This stuff isn't black or white, you can't just have a handheld with Pokémon and rake millions, for the Succ to be a raging success being a hybrid that plays Pokémon will be far from enough.
Click to expand...
It isn't taking the world by storm because it is a cheaper revision to a hugely successful console and is competing against itself. The Switch lite has a very concrete niche (younger players, people who want a second system, people who are completely uninterested in docking the console).
 
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Reinhard Schneider said:
Because you keep making absolute claims, when this stuff is way more complex than that, plus we have at least one exaple of a console that took off after the release of a revision, meaning that revisions can really push hardware when done correctly.

Also, you keep using Pokémon as an ingredient of surefire success, when in this generation we learned that TPCi wont release a mainline game in a console that isn't a surefire success - Can't remember the source now, but TPCi was wary of the Switch after the Wii U failed, reason why they didn't build a new engine for it.
Click to expand...
It won't matter cause Nintendo will only have 1 hardware choice for TPC to go to. There will be no "3ds successor" for TPC to wait for, and they aren't making mainline Pokemon for mobile.
 
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Bonejack said:
Nintendo, on it's own, is pretty safe even if the next system is a worse bomb than Wii U.

They can always fall back on their IP power, especially now since even more of them became huge and due to the cross-media-efforts for their big ones.

But the situation with 3rds however, is shaky.
I feel like it only takes a "semi-bomb" like the Cube for 3rds to immediatly jump ship again.
Click to expand...
They might be in a better position than they used to be regarding third parties because of the sheer size and quality of today's indie market. In the past, if big third party companies such as Capcom and Square Enix ignored a console then it pretty much resulted in long game droughts, but unless they find a way to completely alienate indies then there will always be something worth playing/looking forward to on that side of the third party market.
 
Bonejack said:
Nintendo, on it's own, is pretty safe even if the next system is a worse bomb than Wii U.

They can always fall back on their IP power, especially now since even more of them became huge and due to the cross-media-efforts for their big ones.

But the situation with 3rds however, is shaky.
I feel like it only takes a "semi-bomb" like the Cube for 3rds to immediatly jump ship again.
Click to expand...
Nintendo can't afford to have a worse then wiiu bomb, especially as it won't have the 3ds to fall back on. Worse then wiiu bomb with no 3ds would have Nintendo almost assuredly go 3rd party. Nintendo themselves have too much cash to go bankrupt, but it would be a major shift in their priorities if their only gaming device on the market is worse then wiiu.
 
BassForever said:
Nintendo can't afford to have a worse then wiiu bomb, especially as it won't have the 3ds to fall back on. Worse then wiiu bomb with no 3ds would have Nintendo almost assuredly go 3rd party. Nintendo themselves have too much cash to go bankrupt, but it would be a major shift in their priorities if their only gaming device on the market is worse then wiiu.
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Yeah if that happens they may have to release some of their hottest stuff on other consoles even if temporary to make up for the loss, but that would leave them pretty damaged imo. Once you go first party it's even more difficult to convince people buy your hw and not just wait for the releases on other platforms.
 
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I think that will depend mostly on whether they want to reinvent the wheel or not with the next console. Logical sense points to it being the Switch 2 but you never know.

Reinhard Schneider said:
Yes, i DO remember, i was already in my twenties when it came out, i wanted one with all my might but was tight on money so i couldn't afford it.

The reason why i mentioned it is because it fits the criteria of being a hybrid - i could even go further and talk about the Sega Nomad - but nothing else, and i honestly don't think having Pokémon is enough for a platform to earn success.

It being a revision allows us to make a - reverse - comparision:

860-h0.jpg


Why isn't the Lite taking the world by the storm? It's a full fledged handheld, it has Pokémon, but isn it the worst selling revision/variant of the Switch?

Yes, it is, and there's a reason for that: This stuff isn't black or white, you can't just have a handheld with Pokémon and rake millions, for the Succ to be a raging success being a hybrid that plays Pokémon will be far from enough.
Click to expand...

This is a weak product, even for children. Children also want to hook up their Switch to the TV and play with their friends and siblings.
 
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BassForever said:
Nintendo handheld + Pokemon = at least 80 million sold

Even during the early wiiu/3ds era when it seemed like mobile really could destroy Nintendo's handheld domination, Nintendo turned the 3ds around and got to that ~80 million.
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No, the 3DS crawled to 76 M after seven years and half a dozen revisions.
 
John Omaha said:
No, the 3DS crawled to 76 M after seven years and half a dozen revisions.
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This is worse then people arguing FF15 crawled to 10 million copies sold. 76 million is still 76 million. Thay's more then every Xbox outside of the 360 and every Nintendo tv console except the wii. Everyone would happily take a console that averaged 10 million units a year over the course of it's life.
 
Nah. As much as I like the state that they are in right now, just like any major public company, they are a few poor decisions away from death and destruction. They do generally manage the business quite conservatively from a financing standpoint, though. That has helped them be able to make big bets and sustain when they don't pan out. So, they have always been well run in that sense.

IP doesn't really make the case for Nintendo as its own entity continuing to exist in perpetuity. Even if Nintendo went under, Mario wouldn't, etc.
 
Revolsin said:
Switch U incoming at turbo speeds
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We don't live in 2013 anymore, if they call Switch U today is not a problem unless they show the first trailer without the console and just a new controller.

Look at Microsoft with Xbox Series X, there were some troubles at the beginning but people know that this is the "sequel" to Xbox One X.

It's really difficult to repeat what happened with Wii U
 
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I think the biggest boon for Nintendo's future is the fact that they're not competing against each other from now on. The strenght of their IPs is so big right now so any console they release will instantly be appealing since it will be the only place where consumers can play the new mario kart, new mario platformer, new zelda, new animal crossing, new pokemon, new splatoon and so on. During the WiiU era if someone wanted to play the new Mario they could just buy the 3ds and get their fill of Nintendo just with that, so for the next switch either nobody wants to play new Nintendo games and the company fails or they'll just have a new successful console, how successful we won't know but a WiiU/gamecube level of failure looks to be pretty unlikely.
 
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Nintendo got the midas touch this gen. The vast majority of their franchises had at least a 2x multiplier over the previous best selling entries.
I agree that right now failure is really unlikely. Also don't think they will screw up on the switch -> switch 2 transition. Worst case scenario imo would be a ds -> 3ds. With all teams dedicated to one plataform they need to create a really undesirable hardware for people to avoid buying.
 
It's funny how we are going into the next console iteration with the exact opposite attitude that people went into the Switch.

Wii U -> Switch: "Nintendo is dead in the water, they're going to have to pull a Hail Mary to succeed with this"

Switch -> Switch 2: "There is absolutely no way Nintendo can fail."
 
I disagree! I hope Nintendo isn’t thinking like you.
 
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BassForever said:
This is worse then people arguing FF15 crawled to 10 million copies sold. 76 million is still 76 million. Thay's more then every Xbox outside of the 360 and every Nintendo tv console except the wii. Everyone would happily take a console that averaged 10 million units a year over the course of it's life.
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My point is that the 3DS is a portable that got four mainline Pokemon games and still could not get to 80 M despite Nintendo's best efforts. It's nowhere near a guaranteed formula for success.
 
Joe said:
It's funny how we are going into the next console iteration with the exact opposite attitude that people went into the Switch.

Wii U -> Switch: "Nintendo is dead in the water, they're going to have to pull a Hail Mary to succeed with this"

Switch -> Switch 2: "There is absolutely no way Nintendo can fail."
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which means-

uh oh

could this become the reverse of the infamous "Switch won't sell more than Wii U lifetime" consensus thread from before launch
 
I think something big would have to happen with the entire entertainment industry for Nintendo to get in trouble at this point, or if Nintendo would fail two consecutive generations back-to-back but that seems more and more unlikely with all the ventures they are chasing now.

Maaaaybe some bad decisions from far up could change Nintendo in a bad direction but it's not very likely with the current board.

Yeah, I think you are right.

But also... nothing is certain and everything can change when we just take things for granted.
 
I find it likely due to thier ip strength at this pint, a constant slew of marketing and movies and merchandising can Bassicaly correct any wrong they can do at this pint. Even if they have a bad launch they just need a new Zelda or Pokémon and the consoles fine again, this isn’t like old nitnedo where Mario and Pokémon were really the only noteworthy ip to casuals. Nintendo is Bassicaly in the position the ps1 is, as long as they keep doing the same it’s gonna work out.

Even with a bad launch as long as the console doesn’t explode when you start it up reversing it’s course won’t be difficult for them. Ik a lot of users here are memeing it but it’s not like Nintendo doesn’t learn from past mistakes, they won’t repeat the wii u.
 
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I’m really interested in seeing the financials of the theme parks. Like I imagine the ticket sales are split or maybe even skewed towards Universal, but the gift shop, wrist bands, and food are probably mostly Nintendo. Disney’s had a bad year in terms of the box office, but all of that is basically covered and then some by the theme parks.
 
John Omaha said:
My point is that the 3DS is a portable that got four mainline Pokemon games and still could not get to 80 M despite Nintendo's best efforts. It's nowhere near a guaranteed formula for success.
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76 million is successful by any sane person's pov, I put ~80 for a reason (I knew 3DS was slightly below it)
 
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Not saying that they're not in a very stable position right now, but it can always happen. Nothing is there forever.
 
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Wii U was a perfect storm of bad decisions but even then, the few games it received still made some notable buzz. People still cared about Nintendo games. It’s just that no one bothered to actually get out there and buy a Wii U when you already had rumors of it getting replaced during its peak. Meanwhile 3DS had a bad launch but it turned things around by having a much steadier stream of games, as well as being the platform with Pokemon

Most reasons why certain past systems failed are just no longer relevant nowadays after the way that the industry evolved. N64 wasn’t a failure at all (a lot of the PS1 sales numbers were late, during the time both consoles were active it was a lot closer), especially in the countries where it did well, but that was during a time where you had drastic differences in terms of markets for videogames. Now it’s not really the case anymore. Gamecube was up against a DVD player that could launch missiles and had all of the games, you don’t really get that kind of dominance from one platform anymore. Even the PS3 managed to turn things around, this was the follow-up to the PS2 after all, people were waiting for a price drop and the big games to come out. The launches for the PS4 and PS5 were honestly handled horribly, you had no exclusives besides promises of “greatness awaiting” and yet people still bought these because it’s the next Playstation, it’s the big tech gift to get, it plays Blu-ray movies. Both Nintendo and Sony (maybe Microsoft too idk) have solidified their position in the industry, unless they have a Cell/Wii U reveal level of screwing up they will just keep having their usual sales, they have a loyal base of consumers that just want to get whatever they are offering next
 
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The problem with the console industry is that every generation is a bit of a reset button though. They could totally screw up their next hardware and throw out a ton of progress. If they're able to shift towards more of an iterative model like with smartphones though, that could mitigate the risk associated with a generational shift. Might come with its own set of problems though. And hopefully start carrying over digital purchases going forward so they don't start from scratch each time
 
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