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Predictions How well will the Super Mario RPG remake sell lifetime?

The road is full of sales

  • 1.5m (or less)

    Votes: 4 2.4%

  • 2.0-2.5m

    Votes: 15 8.8%

  • 2.5-3.0m

    Votes: 25 14.7%

  • 3.0-3.5m

    Votes: 17 10.0%

  • 3.5-4.0m

    Votes: 26 15.3%

  • 4.0-4.5m

    Votes: 10 5.9%

  • 4.5m-5.0m

    Votes: 19 11.2%

  • 5.0m-5.5m

    Votes: 29 17.1%

  • 5.5m-6m

    Votes: 4 2.4%

  • 6m (or more)

    Votes: 21 12.4%
  • Total voters
    170
I am going to be a little pessimistic and say that 3m is the ceiling. Turn-based RPGs don't really light the world on fire these days. The Mario brand will help it, but I don't see this going into the 5m+ range.

I'd love to be wrong.
 
Torpoleon said:
Guessed 5 million which would make it the best selling Mario RPG title. Obviously it will outsell the original. Minimum is probably gonna be 3 million. Strange that this title is Nintendo's big "week before Black Friday" title and not Wonder (which is launching the same day as Spider-Man and potentially just 3 days after Sonic).
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I recall Odyssey was around the same time, so it might just be their preferred date for the Mario brand and how it opens the door to the November and Decemeber holiday season.
 
Bowser Sr. said:
I recall Odyssey was around the same time, so it might just be their preferred date for the Mario brand and how it opens the door to the November and Decemeber holiday season.
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To be fair, they had USUM that November. Pokemon in November is arguably more important (and definitely more common) for Nintendo than Mario these days.
 
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Sales matter. It will tell us the odds of what will happen in the future.

Less than 1 million - Failure. Will not see anything from the series going forward
1-2 million - Break Even. Likely won't see anything from it going forward
3-4 million - Success. Perhaps attention will be given in regards to Next gen patches, references, etc.
5-8 million - Critical success. Talks of direct sequel. Likely character representation in sports/party titles
10 million+ - Breakout. EXPECT a sequel and character representation in sports/party titles. Absolutely expect a more organized platform regarding rights holders.

Instead of adding to my Nintendo stock over the rest of the year, I may buy extra copies of this game. Its very special to me. That said, Seeing reactions online and such, I'm estimating 4-5 million
 
It will sell 6 million after they release the heartwarming and emotional TV spots with kids playing the original in the 90s growing up to watch their kids play the remake decades later. The Geno and Mallow floats in the Thanksgiving Day parade will give it a little boost too.
 
I voted 5 to 5.5. I think it could do much more if it really hits with new players well, but 5 million seems like a safer bet.
 
0
going with 6-10 million potential especially since I think the game is going to break out big in japan
 
0
If the Live A Live remake could sell half a million in about a month, 5 million lifetime for a Mario RPG remake feels pretty realistic to me.

I'm also betting it'll get a decent boost as a "second voucher game" for people using vouchers for Mario Wonder.
 
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Original was pre-rpg renaissance in the west. But still big enough to be a legend. This one has the modern Mario branding, high level advertising, the holiday spot and the movie year buff. Gonna be on the upper side of the spin-offs for sure
 
DJBass88 said:
Sales matter. It will tell us the odds of what will happen in the future.

Less than 1 million - Failure. Will not see anything from the series going forward
1-2 million - Break Even. Likely won't see anything from it going forward
3-4 million - Success. Perhaps attention will be given in regards to Next gen patches, references, etc.
5-8 million - Critical success. Talks of direct sequel. Likely character representation in sports/party titles
10 million+ - Breakout. EXPECT a sequel and character representation in sports/party titles. Absolutely expect a more organized platform regarding rights holders.

Instead of adding to my Nintendo stock over the rest of the year, I may buy extra copies of this game. Its very special to me. That said, Seeing reactions online and such, I'm estimating 4-5 million
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I think this game is going to have to sell better than it will sell to break the Square characters into other sub-series tbh.

Not that I think it'll sell poorly. I just see the bar to Nintendo bothering as very very high when it's not SMRPG related or presumably at the behest of Sakurai.
 
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In the EU charts for November it placed #13, but it did release on the 20th. It had 13% lower sales than Origami King comparing their first 3 weeks apparently, which is pretty solid imo. This is all physical sales as well, we don't know digital figures.

Still a bit early to say for sure, but seems like it sold ok, particularly for being a remake and with so much competition this season. Hopefully sees decent legs over the Christmas period too.
 
sadsquid said:
In the EU charts for November it placed #13, but it did release on the 20th. It had 13% lower sales than Origami King comparing their first 3 weeks apparently, which is pretty solid imo. This is all physical sales as well, we don't know digital figures.

Still a bit early to say for sure, but seems like it sold ok, particularly for being a remake and with so much competition this season. Hopefully sees decent legs over the Christmas period too.
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I’m hoping you’re right! I suppose when you put the findings into context, it doesn’t seem so bad.

It is a remake and it sold just slightly lower than Origami King. Hopefully it gets a nice boost during the month of December.
 
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Shareholder Chad said:
Sales matter. It will tell us the odds of what will happen in the future.

Less than 1 million - Failure. Will not see anything from the series going forward
1-2 million - Break Even. Likely won't see anything from it going forward
3-4 million - Success. Perhaps attention will be given in regards to Next gen patches, references, etc.
5-8 million - Critical success. Talks of direct sequel. Likely character representation in sports/party titles
10 million+ - Breakout. EXPECT a sequel and character representation in sports/party titles. Absolutely expect a more organized platform regarding rights holders.

Instead of adding to my Nintendo stock over the rest of the year, I may buy extra copies of this game. Its very special to me. That said, Seeing reactions online and such, I'm estimating 4-5 million
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Where sequel?
 
Josh5890 said:
I am going to be a little pessimistic and say that 3m is the ceiling. Turn-based RPGs don't really light the world on fire these days. The Mario brand will help it, but I don't see this going into the 5m+ range.

I'd love to be wrong.
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I am so happy I was wrong.
 
I'm glad I didn't vote in the poll. I would've said 3 million at best, but this game surpassed that in its first 1.5 months. Definitely going to take TOK's place as the second best-selling Mario RPG at minimum.
 
I forgot I made this thread

Guessing around 4m lifetime which is in the high range of what I voted for
 
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