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Predictions How well will the Super Mario RPG remake sell lifetime?

The road is full of sales

  • 1.5m (or less)

    Votes: 4 2.4%

  • 2.0-2.5m

    Votes: 15 8.8%

  • 2.5-3.0m

    Votes: 25 14.7%

  • 3.0-3.5m

    Votes: 17 10.0%

  • 3.5-4.0m

    Votes: 26 15.3%

  • 4.0-4.5m

    Votes: 10 5.9%

  • 4.5m-5.0m

    Votes: 19 11.2%

  • 5.0m-5.5m

    Votes: 29 17.1%

  • 5.5m-6m

    Votes: 4 2.4%

  • 6m (or more)

    Votes: 21 12.4%
  • Total voters
    170
Mekanos

Mekanos

300 Years Of Gyudon
Pronouns
he/they
So here's the sales for Mario RPGs (and RPG-adjacent games):

  1. Mario & Luigi: Bowser's Inside Story: 4.5m
  2. Super Paper Mario: 4.2m
  3. Paper Mario: The Origami King: 3.3m
  4. Mario & Luigi: Dream Team: 2.6m
  5. Paper Mario: Sticker Star: 2.4m
  6. Mario & Luigi: Superstar Saga: 2.15m
  7. Super Mario RPG: 2.14m
  8. Paper Mario: The Thousand Year Door: 1.9m
  9. Mario & Luigi: Partner in Time: 1.7m
  10. Paper Mario: 1.3m
  11. Mario & Luigi: Paper Jam: 1.08m
Worth nothing that SMRPG did not launch in PAL territories so those numbers are strictly from NA and Japan. Some other things to note:



The trailer on Nintendo's official YouTube has already hit 2 million views:



With the huge success of the Mario movie, the brand is bigger than ever. Fans have been asking for a traditional Mario RPG for years and this is a remake of one of the most beloved games on the SNES and occupies the November holiday slot. How many units do you expect it to move?
 
I don’t want to pick a number, but I hope it does well enough that they consider making a sequel. Definitely going to poke all of my friends to pick it up.
 
Around 3-3.5M. Origami King levels. Don’t forget that it’s going to have a ton of Mario to compete with.
 
xghost777 said:
I don’t want to pick a number, but I hope it does well enough that they consider making a sequel. Definitely going to poke all of my friends to pick it up.
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I know the director would want that too!

www.ign.com

Super Mario RPG Director Would Like to Make a Sequel and Retire - IGN

Super Mario RPG director Chihiro Fujioka wants to make a sequel to the Nintendo RPG as his last ever game.
www.ign.com www.ign.com

My bold prediction is this will outsell Origami King. I voted 3.5-4m. One benefit this has over Paper Mario is the "Super Mario" title, which I feel is more enticing whereas "Paper Mario" comes off like a spin-off. It's also why I think SPM is still the best selling Paper Mario game.

But I agree, all I really want is for it to sell well enough to ensure we get more traditional Mario RPG games.
 
Mekanos said:
I know the director would want that too!

www.ign.com

Super Mario RPG Director Would Like to Make a Sequel and Retire - IGN

Super Mario RPG director Chihiro Fujioka wants to make a sequel to the Nintendo RPG as his last ever game.
www.ign.com www.ign.com

My bold prediction is this will outsell Origami King. I voted 3.5-4m. One benefit this has over Paper Mario is the "Super Mario" title, which I feel is more enticing whereas "Paper Mario" comes off like a spin-off. It's also why I think SPM is still the best selling Paper Mario game.

But I agree, all I really want is for it to sell well enough to ensure we get more traditional Mario RPG games.
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Yup! It being the big November game should help a lot too. It’ll be there just in time for Black Friday and Christmas.

On the anecdotal level, my friends I watched the Direct with who are hard to please were intrigued by the trailer so I’m really hoping it’ll connect with a lot of people.
 
Nintendo YouTubers are going to push this game hard. That being said, it'll probably do 3.5-4 million at most.
 
6+ totally

I think all these post movie games are about to do ridiculous things, even the RPG one.

And yes, hopefully this leads to a Super Mario RPG 2 for Switch 2 and appearances by Geno and Mallow in several of the next gen spinoff games.

It'll be like the divorce never even happened.
 
I voted for 4m max because uhhhh I thought that's what the original did for some reason. Whoops

Eh, I'll stand by it. It's got Mario in the name and it's da holiday game. I guess the risk here is getting cannibalized by Wonder, but it's different enough that it shouldn't make a huge impact.
 
0
hard to say. But the mario rpg games havent seen the improvement that happened with other nintendo ips.

It may be because they re still controversial, so perhaps a title that is very loved like mario rpg may break the mould and sell over 4 million.

Voted for 2,5 million tho.
 
Rooster said:
What number do you think they have to hit for them to move forward on a sequel?
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Hard to say. I hope it's around the 3 million mark, if the Xenoblade games get sequels at 1-2m, there's no way they can be disappointed if this outsells them.

Evil Lucario said:
3.5 to 4 million is the limit if you ask me. But it could end up like Link's Awakening and end up doing super well.
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Yeah, Link's Awakening is the comparison I come to. Link's Awakening sold 3.8m counting the DX version, and LA Switch sold 6m. So factoring in that PAL wasn't a market for the original SMRPG, I could see this remake at least doubling the original sales.

Rooster said:
900k in Japan goddam
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Original SMRPG was a big hit in Japan, sold 1.47m units there. So if anything I think 900k is underselling it.
 
Mr Doggo said:
hard to say. But the mario rpg games havent seen the improvement that happened with other nintendo ips.

It may be because they re still controversial, so perhaps a title that is very loved like mario rpg may break the mould and sell over 4 million.

Voted for 2,5 million tho.
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It's not that they're controversial. They've always just had a different audience and therefore a different potential sales ceiling.
 
0
Origami King is definitely a different game from the Mario RPGs. But RPGs not named Pokemon tend to do similar numbers to Origami King.

And while Super Mario RPG has a nice slot in November, Origami King also had timing on it's side as a bright, colorful, single player adventure that hit right around the time we realized lockdown was going to be a little longer than we thought, and game releases were getting delayed everywhere.

I've never played this one, but I dig the Mario RPGs that I have played, and I would love for this to do 5+ million and resurrect the series now that Paper Mario has become an adventure game franchise, Mario + Luigi is dead, and Mario+Rapids is a different thing.
 
0
Mentioned this on Install Base but I think the environment is right for this to break out and be the best selling Mario RPG. Guessing 5 million +
 
Mekanos said:
Original SMRPG was a big hit in Japan, sold over 1.47m units there. So if anything I think 900k is underselling it.
Click to expand...
Of a 2.75m estimate, I don't think Japan is putting up a whole third

The original was big over there, but the rest of the world is more about RPGs now, the SFC held on better in Japan than the SNES did once the 64 was looming, and now this game is actually being released in the rest of the world, not just Japan and NA.

Since then Japan has been putting up like... at most a quarter, usually a fifth or less of the sales on the RPGs.

So if it does 900k in Japan, I would expect much better overseas numbers than that, tbh.
 
Rooster said:
So if it does 900k in Japan, I would expect much better overseas numbers than that, tbh.
Click to expand...
Oh sure, I agree. With non-US/JP regions factored in I don't think this is gonna do sub-3m. 4m is my optimistic expectation, more than that would be absolutely crazy.
 
Mekanos said:
Oh sure, I agree. With non-US/JP regions factored in I don't think this is gonna do sub-3m. 4m is my optimistic expectation, more than that would be absolutely crazy.
Click to expand...
I suppose the flip-side to that is if it does do 2.75m, I expect less than 900k from Japan.

But around 2.75 is basically my lowest expectations for the game.
 
Mekanos said:
Yeah, Link's Awakening is the comparison I come to. Link's Awakening sold 3.8m counting the DX version, and LA Switch sold 6m. So factoring in that PAL wasn't a market for the original SMRPG, I could see this remake at least doubling the original sales.
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actually it's probably around 7 million now since the last update was a year and a half ago
 
I'm gonna be bold(but not that bold really?) and say 6M+.
Movie made the Mario IP get bigger than ever, and the title being "Super Mario RPG" is pretty in point of what the consumer will get. It's getting a holiday spot too. I guess a lot of parents will buy Switches for their kids, and the new titles being Wonder and RPG will greatly benefit both.
We also gotta factor the role that emulation has played to make that game super recognizable. The 2M sales it originally got are nowhere near the insane amount of people that got to play it on emulators and were delighted by the announcement and will probably buy this.
I mean Hyrule Warriors Age of Calamity, a musou game, sold 3.5 million vary fast. That's because BotW made everyone and their mom know Zelda and want to play Zelda. Link's Awakening, another 2D game 1:1 remake, gone to sell past 6M too.
If anything, releasing on the holiday season, as the pre-Black Friday game(Pokémon spot), on the year that the movie made the hype for the franchise get to the roof and being different enough to not be hurt by Wonder coming just before it but similar enough so a lot of people hungry for more Mario will get it, added with the fact of nostalgia titles and high effort remakes of cult classics selling vary well, will make it reach some pretty big numbers.
 
Might be biased, but I think with the movie happening (and it not being announced just two months before release), there's a lot of factors that can lead to SMRPG blowing everything else out of the water
 
It's hard to predict this one because traditional style Mario RPGs haven't been around for a while, and furthermore Super Mario RPG itself is more of a cult classic cause it came so late in the life of the SNES and didnt even release in Europe. I think coming out during the "holiday of Mario" can help boost it though with Nintendo promoting it alongside Mario Wonder to build excitement in the brand off the Mario movie.

I voted 3.5 to 4 million because there's a lot of unknowns here, but the best case scenario I can think of is probably something like how the Link's Awakening remake performed (becoming the best selling 2D Zelda) which successfully took an old classic game and got newer fans of the franchise to check it out.
 
Mekanos said:
Original SMRPG was a big hit in Japan, sold 1.47m units there. So if anything I think 900k is underselling it.
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There aren't a lot of data points for remakes with such a big gap in time, but I don't think big RPG remakes have tended to sell near the original, such that 2/3 original puts it in pretty elite company. Dragon Quest V SNES->PS2, 2.8m to 1.8m. Romancing SaGa SNES->PS2, 0.96m to 0.45m. Final Fantasy III NES->DS, 1.4m to 1.05m. Final Fantasy IV SNES->DS, 1.4m to 0.66m. Dragon Quest VII PS1->3DS, 3.9 to 1.2m. Final Fantasy VII PS1->PS4, 3.9m to 0.95m, though that will be better if we add in the other two parts of the remake.
 
0
Gonna side with the 5+ million crowd. Between Mario Mania being back in full swing and so many newbies wanting to see what all the fuss is about, this game will be BIG.

And if this leads to more Square Enix collabs, so much the better. Not just a RPG sequel, either, I can certainly do with another Mario-flavored Fortune Street and the return of Mario Hoops! With the FF/DQ crew returning, as well!
 
TreIII said:
Gonna side with the 5+ million crowd. Between Mario Mania being back in full swing and so many newbies wanting to see what all the fuss is about, this game will be BIG.

And if this leads to more Square Enix collabs, so much the better. Not just a RPG sequel, either, I can certainly do with another Mario-flavored Fortune Street and the return of Mario Hoops! With the FF/DQ crew returning, as well!
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Best timeline for sure if we got Mario RPG 2, Fortune Street 2, and Basketball 2.
 
0
Yamanoi said:
0 copies if that's the final box art.

please fix it. ugh ill still buy it.
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I actually really like the box art since it reminds me of the Nintendo Power strategy guide. Also I think the minimal nature of it will help it stand out a bit. Would be cool if they had a reverse cover that resembled the NA box art, but Nintendo regularly misses on that stuff lol.
 
xghost777 said:
I actually really like the box art since it reminds me of the Nintendo Power strategy guide. Also I think the minimal nature of it will help it stand out a bit. Would be cool if they had a reverse cover that resembled the NA box art, but Nintendo regularly misses on that stuff lol.
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Oh I'm not a fan of the USA cover, but I feel like the current version looks a bit cramped. If it were spaced better like this layout, it would be nicer don't you think?

MV5BNmJjNjIwZDctNmFlZC00NmU1LTg5N2EtNjllMjMzMTlmZDU3XkEyXkFqcGdeQXVyMTA0MTM5NjI2._V1_.jpg
 
Yamanoi said:
Oh I'm not a fan of the USA cover, but I feel like the current version looks a bit cramped. If it were spaced better like this layout, it would be nicer don't you think?

MV5BNmJjNjIwZDctNmFlZC00NmU1LTg5N2EtNjllMjMzMTlmZDU3XkEyXkFqcGdeQXVyMTA0MTM5NjI2._V1_.jpg
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Yeah that does look a good bit better I agree.
 
Gartooth said:
It's hard to predict this one because traditional style Mario RPGs haven't been around for a while, and furthermore Super Mario RPG itself is more of a cult classic cause it came so late in the life of the SNES and didnt even release in Europe. I think coming out during the "holiday of Mario" can help boost it though with Nintendo promoting it alongside Mario Wonder to build excitement in the brand off the Mario movie.

I voted 3.5 to 4 million because there's a lot of unknowns here, but the best case scenario I can think of is probably something like how the Link's Awakening remake performed (becoming the best selling 2D Zelda) which successfully took an old classic game and got newer fans of the franchise to check it out.
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The last traditional mario RPG retail release was in 2019. It's not that long ago!

My guess if things go particularly well is in the 2-3m range. The thread reeks of the same endless optimism that the Metroid prime remastered sale predictions did, where like a third of the forum thought it would be the best selling Metroid ever and ... Yeah, didn't happen obviously.
 
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There is definitely a lot of synergy for this game compared to the other Mairo RPGs, Mario is off the backs of a successful movie and this and Wonder will be the ones that directly benefit form it. That being said, I'm expecting a range from 3-4M for this game. Though I can see it blowing past it if the marketing is just right.
 
0
I don't have a very strong guess, but some of these seem pretty low. What is the least a game in the "big November spot" has done? I know Metroid Prime failed to reach 3 million, but it didn't do that while also selling less than the previous Metroid.
Yamanoi said:
Oh I'm not a fan of the USA cover, but I feel like the current version looks a bit cramped. If it were spaced better like this layout, it would be nicer don't you think?

MV5BNmJjNjIwZDctNmFlZC00NmU1LTg5N2EtNjllMjMzMTlmZDU3XkEyXkFqcGdeQXVyMTA0MTM5NjI2._V1_.jpg
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That would work if this were releasing on DS or 3DS, but the canvas of Switch box art is Tall, so that's what they arranged them for.
 
0
gonna guess between 4 - 5 millions off the hype of the movie and also being a cult classic which got talked about a lot.
 
0
Given Paper Mario usually sells around the 3 Million mark, I'd wager that's a good ballpark. Maybe more, maybe less, I'm just not sure how much of the "online hype" will translate into actual sales.
 
It clearly being a SNES remake (the level design, the 8 way movements...) makes me think it'll fall a bit short of TOK.
So I'm thinking 3M.

Also don't forget that European audience has close to no nostalgia for this game beyond the few who bought it either on the Wii VC or the Wii U VC.
 
0
I think it’ll take the crown as best selling Mario RPG

But not by a ton. Tho. It’s possible. Mario is in a better spot as a IP, so is Nintendo in general. Plus holidays and it gonna be pretty big in Japan. It might do wonders (hehe).

Anyways. I think RPG 2 is happening regardless
 
I'd assume it'll sell around the same as the Switch Paper Mario, since I presume the audience for it is about the same folks.
 
0
This definitely feels like the guinea pig to see how impactful the Mario Movie will be for game sales. This would be a 3M seller, maybe a bit less, before the movie.
 
0
Guessed 5 million which would make it the best selling Mario RPG title. Obviously it will outsell the original. Minimum is probably gonna be 3 million. Strange that this title is Nintendo's big "week before Black Friday" title and not Wonder (which is launching the same day as Spider-Man and potentially just 3 days after Sonic).
 
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