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Discussion How well do you think the GTA trilogy will sell on Switch if it's a good port?

Kreese

Kreese

Koopa
Banned
What do you see for it in overall unit sales and split with the other brands?

In one way, the other brands have built in fanbases and support for the franchise, but on the other hand the Switch version of GTA will be the only portable version (until it's on phones in a year) and Switch fans may be starved for some GTA.
 
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I wonder if we'll ever get numbers? I guess Rockstar reports the console split on their financial report.
 
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While I can't put an exact number on it, I think it will be a main staple on the eShop best sellers list. Like consistently in the top 5 for months and in the top 10 for at least a year (give or take a few days dropping out because of major sales).
 
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On Switch? The games will be sold individually (they're already split on eShop but not available for preorder) and that'll help the sales a lot. $20 portable San Andreas? I'm thinking 7-8 million of that alone.
 
over the life of the Switch, 5M. I honestly can't fathom this not doing well. something has to go horrifically wrong for that
 
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Honestly? I have to go against the grain. I can see it doing moderately well (1-2m) but not much more. GTA is super saturated, I also feel like the target audience will just buy it on Xbox/PS instead.
 
How well did Skyrim do on Switch? Probably something in that range, 3-5 million to pull a number out of my ass.
 
8 to 9 million across all versions (GTA Trilogy, plus each separate game). This is GTA on a popular Nintendo system, it'll fly off shelves.
 
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Multi-plat for sure (everyone agrees there), I'd be surprised if it did over 3 million. Thats a very nice figure to be clear!
But given the number of cross-platform owners in the "core gamer" segment of the switch install-base, I can see many customers choosing another platform for higher-fidelity. I'll be curious to see this game's "double-dip" potential tho, especially as it starts to see sales discounts.
 
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RingoGaSuki said:
Honestly? I have to go against the grain. I can see it doing moderately well (1-2m) but not much more. GTA is super saturated, I also feel like the target audience will just buy it on Xbox/PS instead.
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That can be said every other third party franchise save for Nintendo loyals (SMT, NMH, Rune Factory etc). But almost all big third party titles have been successful on Switch. The key here is sufficient marketing.

Mekanos said:
How well did Skyrim do on Switch? Probably something in that range, 3-5 million to pull a number out of my ass.
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Skyrim did very well, at least 2m. And we're talking about a game with Nintendo's pricing policy, $60 base and rarely gets discounts. GTA games will be $20 a pop.
 
9-Volt said:
Skyrim did very well, at least 2m. And we're talking about a game with Nintendo's pricing policy, $60 base and rarely gets discounts. GTA games will be $20 a pop.
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Skyrim goes on sale quite a bit. it was $30 just in august, digitally
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ILikeFeet said:
Skyrim goes on sale quite a bit. it was $30 just in august, digitally
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Yeah I'm keeping track of it despite already owning it. Twice it happened this year, rarer than the rest of the bethesda games.
 
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I'm just curious to see if it gets amiibo support🤷🏿‍♂️

2-3M. Still great for a first showing of mainline games on Nintendo platforms
 
Yoshifan31 said:
Well apparently that only sold 2,6 million on Switch, its competition would be MH Rise which is at like 7,5 million. I think GTA on Switch could easily do 10 million, the social media engagement on that news was on another level
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The engagement was for the announcement in general, nothing to do with the Switch version specifically.

It'll do well on Switch because it's GTA. But anyone expecting the Switch version to sell more than the PlayStation or Xbox versions needs a reality check. I can see it outperform the PC version (because Rockstar sabotaged it by putting it on their launcher exclusively), but otherwise the power of in built audiences cultivated over literally decades cannot be underestimated.

There are 150 million GTA fans at the moment; they are on PlayStation and Xbox, and that's where they'll get this game. There will be some who get it on Switch, plus many Switch owners who pick it up as well, but that number will not match the number of Xbox or PlayStation sales for this thing.
 
Phantom Thief said:
The engagement was for the announcement in general, nothing to do with the Switch version specifically.

It'll do well on Switch because it's GTA. But anyone expecting the Switch version to sell more than the PlayStation or Xbox versions needs a reality check. I can see it outperform the PC version (because Rockstar sabotaged it by putting it on their launcher exclusively), but otherwise the power of in built audiences cultivated over literally decades cannot be underestimated.

There are 150 million GTA fans at the moment; they are on PlayStation and Xbox, and that's where they'll get this game. There will be some who get it on Switch, plus many Switch owners who pick it up as well, but that number will not match the number of Xbox or PlayStation sales for this thing.
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I can see the Switch version outselling the Xbox versions. There are a lot of Switches and not as many Xboxs.
 
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Phantom Thief said:
The engagement was for the announcement in general, nothing to do with the Switch version specifically.

It'll do well on Switch because it's GTA. But anyone expecting the Switch version to sell more than the PlayStation or Xbox versions needs a reality check. I can see it outperform the PC version (because Rockstar sabotaged it by putting it on their launcher exclusively), but otherwise the power of in built audiences cultivated over literally decades cannot be underestimated.

There are 150 million GTA fans at the moment; they are on PlayStation and Xbox, and that's where they'll get this game. There will be some who get it on Switch, plus many Switch owners who pick it up as well, but that number will not match the number of Xbox or PlayStation sales for this thing.
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I’m referring to Nintendo’s social media posts about it specifically, they even got more likes and retweets than Playstation’s

I think this situation is very different from stuff like the Wii U’s third party games not selling as well as the other platforms. GTA is a super mainstream name regardless of console. The GTA audience will buy it on whatever they own, except now they will finally get to play it on a non-mobile handheld. People aren’t buying the PS5 to play PS2 remasters, no one cares that this version is actually 60 fps. Rockstar couldn’t bother porting GTAV to Switch because even if it was worth the risk, they were satisfied with GTA online printing money. Now that they are releasing GTA III trilogy on all platforms, well I think the Switch version could easily sell 10 million as it is on the platform that is by far the most receptive to retro games.
 
9-Volt said:
On Switch? The games will be sold individually (they're already split on eShop but not available for preorder) and that'll help the sales a lot. $20 portable San Andreas? I'm thinking 7-8 million of that alone.
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Oh dang, I didn't know we could get them separately. I'll definitely be snagging San Andreas at some point then.

On the topic itself, I think there's no doubt GTA Trilogy will sell well, especially at the price point it's at. Thinking it can reach 5 million.
 
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Yoshifan31 said:
I’m referring to Nintendo’s social media posts about it specifically, they even got more likes and retweets than Playstation’s

I think this situation is very different from stuff like the Wii U’s third party games not selling as well as the other platforms. GTA is a super mainstream name regardless of console. The GTA audience will buy it on whatever they own, except now they will finally get to play it on a non-mobile handheld. People aren’t buying the PS5 to play PS2 remasters, no one cares that this version is actually 60 fps. Rockstar couldn’t bother porting GTAV to Switch because even if it was worth the risk, they were satisfied with GTA online printing money. Now that they are releasing GTA III trilogy on all platforms, well I think the Switch version could easily sell 10 million as it is on the platform that is by far the most receptive to retro games.
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I’m very interested in this. I didn’t realize Nintendo tweets got more engagement. Could I please trouble you to share links? You don’t have to, and I can definitely go looking for them tomorrow, but this is actual hard data that presents a far more optimistic picture than I ever could have dared hope for haha, that’s all.
 
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kimbo99 said:
I'm just curious to see if it gets amiibo support🤷🏿‍♂️

2-3M. Still great for a first showing of mainline games on Nintendo platforms
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If Skyrim did 2 do the GTA games should more comfortably. It's a much more popular series.

Especially since it's day and date with the other remakes.
 
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9-Volt said:
On Switch? The games will be sold individually (they're already split on eShop but not available for preorder) and that'll help the sales a lot. $20 portable San Andreas? I'm thinking 7-8 million of that alone.
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I didn't realize they'd be listed individually! That's great since SA is coming with Game Pass and to Oculus, I can skip it!
 
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I think a few million can be expected, like 2 or 3 million, which would be more than respectable, considering that Rockstar has built up almost no audience on Nintendo systems and the game will still no doubt be noticeably worse than on PS/Xbox
 
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@Yoshifan31 I got them!





So 2-4.5x the engagement metrics, it seems like. Honestly that’s very unexpected. I’d never have guessed on this. I’m still a bit wary because like with Detective Pikachu (the movie) a lot of the initial engagement metrics could just be because of the novelty of things rather than something that might translate into tangible results but, you’re right. We have hard data here that does affect least suggest a potential for over performance.
 
9-Volt said:
On Switch? The games will be sold individually (they're already split on eShop but not available for preorder) and that'll help the sales a lot. $20 portable San Andreas? I'm thinking 7-8 million of that alone.
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They're not being sold individually. They're split in the eShop because it'll be 3 seperate downloads. It's not 1 game with all 3 titles in it. Maybe at some point they will be sold individually to grab sales from people who don't want to buy all 3 but as it currently stands, it's a trilogy.
 
It’ll sell gangbusters even if it runs like a slideshow.

OumNSZC.gif
 
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Adv said:
They're not being sold individually. They're split in the eShop because it'll be 3 seperate downloads. It's not 1 game with all 3 titles in it. Maybe at some point they will be sold individually to grab sales from people who don't want to buy all 3 but as it currently stands, it's a trilogy.
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Nope. If it's split before the release, that definitely means it'll be sold individually. Borderlands and Bioshock were also like that, from same company. GTA Trilogy is split in every storefront, not just eShop.

There are games that are separate downloads but not sold individually, like Ninja Gaiden. It never had separate listings.
 
I don’t really know, we will have to see the pre-order performance leading up to it. I imagine it’ll clear at least 2-3M pretty easily. It’s releasing in a rather good time, the holiday quarter.


It’s the legs that I don’t know about, GTA is a huge series, but how well it lets out would depend on if the game runs pretty well on the NSW platform where it easily becomes a favorable choice to look to, coupled with the portability being an easy selling point that makes it a much more favorable product.

It is competing with other huge titles that are releasing in the similar window as the digital version of the game, Pokémon and Mario Party. On the switch anyway. And those are other casual series with wide appeal like GTA ok Mario party is more than “casual” game, it’s a game about making real life enemies

It’s competing in how they appeal to the casual wider market for attention if you get what I mean.


and then there’s the “second wind” effect as it has its physical and digital split on dates, the digital will bring in a lot but the physical will come later and those tend to do more. Do people opt for digital because it’s earlier? Or will people wait for physical? I’m unsure how the dig/phys split is on the switch but I don’t think it’s over 35% digital right? I know the order is XBox>PlayStation>Switch with the digital ratio.

Add to this conundrum, the physical is only partially on cart, not all on cart. So, will people opt to go digital anyway? Or does that not matter in all honesty?
 
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It's gonna sell a truckload. And I'm just not sure how anyone could suggest otherwise.

It's a multimillionseller before the year ends.
 
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Several millions i suppose. 3m. GTA has exploded so huge that i think this has chance of doing really well on switch there.
 
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9-Volt said:
Nope. If it's split before the release, that definitely means it'll be sold individually. Borderlands and Bioshock were also like that, from same company. GTA Trilogy is split in every storefront, not just eShop.

There are games that are separate downloads but not sold individually, like Ninja Gaiden. It never had separate listings.
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At the moment it’s listed as a bundle and the individual downloads state ‘not available to purchase’ next to them, which wasn’t the case with bundles like the Bioshock collection. I guess we’ll have to see how things turn out.
 
YolkFolk said:
At the moment it’s listed as a bundle and the individual downloads state ‘not available to purchase’ next to them, which wasn’t the case with bundles like the Bioshock collection. I guess we’ll have to see how things turn out.
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Bioshock games weren't up for pre-order individually, only as a whole collection. Individual games could be bought after the release date. Everyone was asking the same question for Bioshock too.
 
9-Volt said:
Bioshock games weren't up for pre-order individually, only as a whole collection. Individual games could be bought after the release date. Everyone was asking the same question for Bioshock too.
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Hope so as I only want to buy a game at a time.
 
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I'll give a conservative estimate:

If sold individually I can see total sales being very healthy - upwards of 4 million.

If sold as a package numbers will probably be lower but still good - upwards of 2 million.
 
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I have no idea and I wish it well. Assuming it’s a good port I will do my part.
 
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I'm surprised to see everyone lowballing the sales numbers. This is GTA, one of the highest selling video game franchises of all time, on one of the most popular Nintendo systems ever. It'll sell more than five million for sure.
 
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Yoshifan31 said:
Well apparently that only sold 2,6 million on Switch, its competition would be MH Rise which is at like 7,5 million. I think GTA on Switch could easily do 10 million, the social media engagement on that news was on another level
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I'm pretty sure Minecraft did about that in Japan only.
 
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I am hoping the port is good and it does well. I'd dare say it maybe one of the best sellers on Switch for Nov and Dec.
 
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I think it can go as high as 5m due to it being the only GTA on the Switch.
I think it's a bit crazy people expecting it to sell as much as the other versions combined.
I also don't think it'll be the best selling third party game on the Switch and tbh it doesn't even deserves to be.
I think the crown is with Minecraft and that probably sits at around 10m or so. 7,5m for MH Rise, and it'll get to 10m too. Mario + Rabbids I don't know for certain, I remember exactly when it was announced it sold 2,5m, then a couple months ago there was this tweet about it having surpassed 7,5 million players, does it mean it sold 7m units??
There are the most fabled and hyped Switch 3rd party games too like Skyrim and Stardew Valley. I don't know where they sit but it's probably pretty high.
 
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