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Discussion How do you expect Super Mario Bros. Wonder to sell compared to Tears of the Kingdom?

Joe

Joe

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Tears of the Kingdom sold tremendously well, with 10 million units sold within only its first three days. Do you think Super Mario Bros. Wonder could sell as well, or will it come nowhere close?

I personally find it difficult to say. TotK had years worth of hype whereas SMBW will only have a four-month cycle between announcement and release. However, the hype from the Super Mario Bros. Movie most likely heightened the brand and the desire for people to play a new Mario game, plus there's multiplayer which can make it very appealing for families. There's always that 2D vs. 3D debate, but I don't think that really affects sales as much as people think.

If I had to give an answer now, I don't think it will sell immediately as well as TotK, but it will probably have legs and will be a huge seller for the holiday season.
 
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The more salient question is probably how it sells compared to SMBUDX (15m) and SMO (25m).

It’ll easily outsell the former. It’d ordinarily have no problem surpassing the latter too, but I’m not as sure with it arriving so late in Switch’s lifespan.
 
It won't have the insane explosive 3 day that TotK or pokemon had but I think it will sell 20+ million in its first quarter thanks to the holiday. I expect this game to be a huge seller from the get go especially since it's the first new Mario platformer since super Mario maker 2.
 
It‘s hard to say considering the WiiU port didn’t do so well, though I think Wonder has the potential of having Super Mario Bros. Wii Numbers over time. So I‘ll say TOTK and Wonder will sell about the same when all is said and done.
 
I don't expect it to sell as crazy fast as Zelda but I fully expect it to do great numbers for a Mario game, possibly even dethroning NSMB Wii as fastest selling Mario game in history. I also agree that it will have some long legs.
 
It wont do 3-day TOTK level, but it will have

tumblr_m0l7h5P4HY1qzp9weo2_500.jpg
 
Well…

• The lowest selling New! Super Mario Bros. Game is NSMB2 with 13,410,000 units;

• The highest selling New! game is the first one with 30,800,000 copies;

• As a Switch game, Super Mario Odyssey sold 25,760,000 units.

With Super Mario Bros. Wonder launching in a humongous install base and almost the Holidays, plus it’ll most likely be a Switch 1 and 2 Evergreen title, I can see it surpassing the 30 million lifetime sales.
 
Based on BotW versus SMO, I'd give it to TotK. 2D Mario has hit some nutty numbers in the past, but unlike Zelda it's also been frequently bundled, and that doesn't seem likely to happen here. TotK I think can crack 20m, SMBW probably around 15m
 
Switch audience is different than the Wii had. I expect a ceiling of 25M for Totk and 20M for Wonder on Switch.
 
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I just want to see it do 10M in 3 days. That would be chef's kiss.

To be honest it is hard to compare the two. I'd like to compare it to SMO cause typically 2D Mario outsells 3D Mario.
 
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I dunno. Imo is wrong to assume you can determine sales based on franchise history as if the game itself doesn't count.
That was the mistake we did with BotW.
Wonder will sell really good, that's a given. 10 millions by years end at least.
But depending on the game itself, the praise, the reviews, the word of mouth, how much it's streamed and generates online content, it could sell anywhere between 15 millions to 40 millions when it's done.
 
NSMBU Deluxe, a Wii U port with much less appealing visuals, is at like 15 million. Plus the Mario movie was this year, so the franchise will be fresh in people's minds

This thing is at least hitting 20 million with ease
 
Tears will outsell Wonder for the lifetime of the Switch. Wonder will outsell Tears, lifetime, especially if there is any sort of cross-gen or BC or rerelease for the next system.

The question is, how well will Tears and Wonder do relative to Breath of the Wild. Breath of the Wild was the big game at the start of the gen, and has stayed evergreen, giving it the advantage of the install base and simple time on the market. Can Wonder match it by being the more accessible Big Game, with the huge install base, shorter time in the market, but less competition from first party?

On the left hand, this feels very NSMBWii to me - huge install base, game that hits wide across the gamer spectrum. On the right hand, Mario Kart 8DX has sold bonkers relative to Mario Kart Wii. So maybe the ceiling is closer to 40 million.

Will be wild to see.
 
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It’s gonna be a lot closer than people think. The market is much more favorable to big AAA games like Tears of the Kingdom these days, and while Mario will obviously sell very well I don’t think the market is quite as strong for 2D Mario these days, at least relative to everything else.

Both should clear 20M, but I think they’ll be pretty close beyond that.
 
Not the same on opening weekend, but about 30 million on the long run.

Zelda is really big now and not a force to be underestimated.

By the way, I didn’t like mario running animation, but all the rest is amazing. Why no one seems bothered about Mario running is incredible to me.
 
Thunder84 said:
It’s gonna be a lot closer than people think. The market is much more favorable to big AAA games like Tears of the Kingdom these days, and while Mario will obviously sell very well I don’t think the market is quite as strong for 2D Mario these days, at least relative to everything else.

Both should clear 20M, but I think they’ll be pretty close beyond that.
Click to expand...
Yeah this is where I am. I expect both to hit 20 million but after that it's anyone's game. I am going to give it to TOTK I think, but the difference could be as small as 25m vs 24m. Either way, Nintendo was very smart to save a new 2D Mario for this late in the system's life after exhausting most of their other flagship franchises, 2023 will be a repeat of 2017 with heavy hitting Zelda and Mario games.

Notsowise said:
Not the same on opening weekend, but about 30 million on the long run.

Zelda is really big now and not a force to be underestimated.

By the way, I didn’t like mario running animation, but all the rest is amazing. Why no one seems bothered about Mario running is incredible to me.
Click to expand...
What's wrong with Mario's running animation?
 
It'll be close, but probably a bit worse if I had to guess. I don't think it will reach the heights of DS and Wii due to the difference in audience and its placement in the console's lifespan
 
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i dont really pay attention to the sales of games we know are going to sell well, it is the surprises that matter.

But idk, im betting it might do better.
 
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Mekanos said:
Yeah this is where I am. I expect both to hit 20 million but after that it's anyone's game. I am going to give it to TOTK I think, but the difference could be as small as 25m vs 24m. Either way, Nintendo was very smart to save a new 2D Mario for this late in the system's life after exhausting most of their other flagship franchises, 2023 will be a repeat of 2017 with heavy hitting Zelda and Mario games.


What's wrong with Mario's running animation?
Click to expand...
He’s angry and it seems like he makes a horrible effort to run. Too comical actually. Look the fat man runs… I don’t like it.
 
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If a port of NSMBWU was able to sell 15 million then Wonder is going to be a monster. Like 20 million is probably the floor. But I’d say the same for TotK too so it’s hard to compare.
 
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Apopheniac said:
Based on BotW versus SMO, I'd give it to TotK. 2D Mario has hit some nutty numbers in the past, but unlike Zelda it's also been frequently bundled, and that doesn't seem likely to happen here. TotK I think can crack 20m, SMBW probably around 15m
Click to expand...

You think Wonder will only sell the same at a port of New Super Mario Bros U?

I think it will have sold more than that after 3 months.
 
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I can see it selling 10 million that first month easily if we talk sell in and not sell through. Retailers are going to want this to be in stock and at the endcaps along with the Black Friday switch deals that will probably start selling at the beginning of November.
 
It's worth noting that Mario Wonder is combining the strength of the video game following the titan of a movie.

It's going to do very, very well.

Ultimately, the two games are likely going to put up similar numbers but sell to different audiences (though there will obviously be some overlap). There is no competition here both are blockbusters that will move a lot of hardware and print Nintendo a lot of money.
 
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i can't see it beating TOTK but assuming they don't pull the rug out from under it with new hardware too soon i wouldn't be surprised if it vastly outsells NSMBUD
 
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Wonder will surpass Tears of the Kingdom in sales. As popular as Zelda has become post Breath of the Wild, it is still nowhere near as popular as Mario. I mean people showed up in droves to watch a mediocre movie just because Mario's name was on it. 2D Mario is also a lot more accessible than Zelda. I think this will do at least as well as Odyssey and will most likely surpass it.
 
Quoted by: Joe
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I think we have another 10mil in 3 days game to follow in Pokémon and Zelda's footsteps. The switch install base is so big now that a major game with broad appeal is gonna print money.
 
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