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Sales Data Famitsu Sales Week 26, 2023 (Jun. 19-25) Final Fantasy XVI Launch

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Bonejack said:
Even if i would factor some ~200k sales from digital into it (which i feel would be very generous), it's still a massive decline from XV (also factoring it didn't have 0 digital sales).
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So over half a million units sold, for a 4 million install base. That's over 10% of the install base, in Japan. Not bad IMO, for launch day.
About square thoughts on it, I don't know, I'm just aware of what I see in the numbers.
 
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Lugia667 said:
I mean the last main ff game released 7 years ago lol so that feels more like a technicality
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Right, when I say "recent" I'm more speaking of more recent entries in the main series which my point still applies. I think 12 was the last one to be this acclaimed if memory serves (at least at launch, since obviously 14's popularity kind of just skyrocketed). So saying "years" is mistake on my part depending on how you look at it lol.
 
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Also, mentally preparing myself for the week Pikmin 4 comes out for it to be #1 and finally get the respect the series deserves.
 
Switch sales have simply been amazing since TOTK.
15 million this FY is for sure on the table whereas i thought it wouldn't have a shot at it.
 
9-Volt said:
Switch at 105k? Holy hell, it's been more than a month since TotK launch!

I'd be shocked if it didn't hit 130m already...
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Nintendo's FYQ1 ends tommorow (report due on August 3rd) and Switch will need 4.38 million to hit 130 million. I don't know if it can sell that amount but a flat 4 million is very realistic going by the sales data we do have. Japan typically accounts for 23% of Switch sales and famitsu sales for Switch are 1.06 million for the quarter however Japan may or may not have gotten a bigger Zelda bump than other regions.

This is now the stage at which Switch can start to reel in NDS, the NDS only sold 1.44 million in it's opening quarter of full fiscal year seven (grey) and only 5.10 million for the full fiscal year.

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FFXVI sold double what the multi-console RE4 remake did in its first week in Japan
It also became Japan’s bestselling PS5 exclusive in just six days

But the Switch outsold the PS5 so it’s obviously a colossal failure
 
9-Volt said:
They might split the franchise. One entry as a high budget PS exclusive, another as a low budget traditional one, alternating releases. There's a massive global demand for traditional JRPG's and Square would bank even more money if they bring the Final Fantasy brand to Asano factory.
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Actually that's what they did with team Asano at first. After the success of FF3 and 4 DS remakes in Japan, the team went on to make FF gaiden, heavily inspired by FF3, which sold rather poorly. After that their games became their own things.
 
Luminoth9090 said:
This is now the stage at which Switch can start to reel in NDS, the NDS only sold 1.44 million in it's opening quarter of full fiscal year seven (grey) and only 5.10 million for the full fiscal year.
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Well, launch of the full backwards compatible successor didn't do any favors for DS. If the same happens, Switch sales will also take a dip.

But, I think, Switch could continue to sell well until the day where there officially reveal the successor. Launch period Switch consoles are starting to die at this point and people are slowly replacing their old Switches with OLED model.
Kaka said:
Actually that's what they did with team Asano at first. After the success of FF3 and 4 DS remakes in Japan, the team went on to make FF gaiden, heavily inspired by FF3, which sold rather poorly. After that their games became their own things.
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Now that Asano proved himself as the multi million seller producer, he might return to the IP with spinoffs, remakes and sequels. He's already doing a DQ remake, I'd be surprised if a 2DHD or BD-like FF is not in the works.
 
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JorgenRaft said:
I mean that's implying 16 doesn't have that, which it does. Doesn't mean that everyone is going to like their approach. Just because it's different from past FF games and the Xenoblade series, it doesn't make it bad. Especially when the reception to 16 has been better than most FF in recent years and pretty much on par with Xenoblade in general.
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I don't think it has a focus on most of those areas.

World design - Pretty but barren, very little to explore and do. Dungeons are linear like DMC.
Gameplay loop - This can mean a lot of different things. Either way, the overall game structure here is basically linear Mega Man. The combat is not strategic or varied outside of bosses. Progression and RPG systems are barely there.
Mechanics - They've done a great job bringing the DMC mechanics over to the battle system. Everything else outside of combat is mediocre.

It's a game built around visual spectacle and boss encounters, with everything else being secondary.
 
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Instro said:
FF7R didn't sell well?
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It's between 5m and 10m sold which is a pretty huge disappointment considering how massive the budget likely was and how much development focus Square put on it.

Any major Final Fantasy release under 10m sold is another entry in which the series just refuses to grow even as the budgets explode. I expect FF16 had development+promotional costs at or maybe significantly above $300m which would require at least 8.6m sold to break even if Sony didn't heavily subsidize the game.
 
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
It's between 5m and 10m sold which is a pretty huge disappointment considering how massive the budget likely was and how much development focus Square put on it.

Any major Final Fantasy release under 10m sold is another entry in which the series just refuses to grow even as the budgets explode. I expect FF16 had development+promotional costs at or maybe significantly above $300m which would require at least 8.6m sold to break even if Sony didn't heavily subsidize the game.
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You're right that it isn't growing like other franchises despite huge budgets and spectacular visuals and cinematics, 5 to 10 million would have been great just a decade ago but today even Luigi's mansion sells 13 million and Kirby 6.5 million.
 
MeatheadSamus said:
I buy vouchers from Japanese eshop for $70. Got TOTK and Pikmin 4 for $35 each. Loving it.


Meant to quote the above but now can't.
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LMAO I did the same, but I bought it earlier in the year so it cost $75

Luminoth9090 said:
You're right that it isn't growing like other franchises despite huge budgets and spectacular visuals and cinematics, 5 to 10 million would have been great just a decade ago but today even Luigi's mansion sells 13 million and Kirby 6.5 million.
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I'm waiting for the FFXVI vs Kirby Forgotten land sales thread
 
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
It's between 5m and 10m sold which is a pretty huge disappointment considering how massive the budget likely was and how much development focus Square put on it.

Any major Final Fantasy release under 10m sold is another entry in which the series just refuses to grow even as the budgets explode. I expect FF16 had development+promotional costs at or maybe significantly above $300m which would require at least 8.6m sold to break even if Sony didn't heavily subsidize the game.
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Kind of 50/50 on this. The game was a paid exclusive, in full dev for ~4 years. I would assume the production+marketing was no greater than 200m, but probably less given that Japanese developers are paid less, of which some portion is presumably covered by Sony. I'd imagine we'll get PR ahead of the part 2 release, and I think if it's reached ~10m between the original and intergrade release, it can be seen as a pretty substantial success. Particularly since the sequel will drive some additional legs for the original release. Similarly they seemed to place a great deal of focus on it during the IR events around that time and afterwards, as a successful title, and from what I've seen of their financial reports they were very successful over the last few years in setting record revenue and profit numbers(up until this most recent FY due in large part to Forspoken bombing), so I'd assume the game is/was a success for them.

There's probably an outstanding question as to whether SE quietly expects these games to reach 15-20m as some Sony first party do, but who knows. Final Fantasy has a much larger merchandise and residual footprint than most game franchises, so presumably that factors into how much they "need" a game to sell. I mean I think if we were using your guesses here, then the publisher as whole would be in significant financial trouble, as none of their games are truly mega hits outside of FFXIV in the MMO space.

Your FFXVI budgeting seems similarly inflated, given what we just learned about Forbidden West and TLOU Part2. It's unlikely SE's top end games in the current era are more expensive than the ~$200m figures we got for those two games.
 
Instro said:
Kind of 50/50 on this. The game was a paid exclusive, in full dev for ~4 years. I would assume the production+marketing was no greater than 200m, but probably less given that Japanese developers are paid less, of which some portion is presumably covered by Sony. I'd imagine we'll get PR ahead of the part 2 release, and I think if it's reached ~10m between the original and intergrade release, it can be seen as a pretty substantial success. Particularly since the sequel will drive some additional legs for the original release. Similarly they seemed to place a great deal of focus on it during the IR events around that time and afterwards, as a successful title, and from what I've seen of their financial reports they were very successful over the last few years in setting record revenue and profit numbers(up until this most recent FY due in large part to Forspoken bombing), so I'd assume the game is/was a success for them.

There's probably an outstanding question as to whether SE quietly expects these games to reach 15-20m as some Sony first party do, but who knows. Final Fantasy has a much larger merchandise and residual footprint than most game franchises, so presumably that factors into how much they "need" a game to sell. I mean I think if we were using your guesses here, then the publisher as whole would be in significant financial trouble, as none of their games are truly mega hits outside of FFXIV in the MMO space.

Your FFXVI budgeting seems similarly inflated, given what we just learned about Forbidden West and TLOU Part2. It's unlikely SE's top end games in the current era are more expensive than the ~$200m figures we got for those two games.
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$200m+ was before advertising to be clear.

It seems reasonable to think FF16 was near Forbidden budget wise which was probably around $300m after promotion.
 
Selling 5-10 million is very good, even for a big budget game. Sure it might seem small when we’re used to getting sales reports of games like GTA5, Minecraft, and Mario Kart 8, but those games sell at batshit crazy numbers.
 

ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
$200m+ was before advertising to be clear.

It seems reasonable to think FF16 was near Forbidden budget wise which was probably around $300m after promotion.
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Assumptions about budgets feel pointless because we honestly don't really know and every "reasonable" guess is still mostly random guesswork.
 
Luminoth9090 said:
You're right that it isn't growing like other franchises despite huge budgets and spectacular visuals and cinematics, 5 to 10 million would have been great just a decade ago but today even Luigi's mansion sells 13 million and Kirby 6.5 million.
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You realize the bestselling Square Enix game EVER is the original FFVII at around 13m, right? Of course FFVIIR wasn’t going to sell as much as games with mass audience appeal like Luigi’s Mansion and Kirby. 5-10m is a phenomenal success for a company like SQEX.

edit: I would also like to add that VII Remake is likely at the higher end of that 5-10m range. The famed 5m number that everyone always mentions was from three months after the game’s release. It has been three years since we last got an update and since then we’ve also had a PS5, Steam, and Epic Games release. I am willing to bet that we will get an update before Rebirth releases and the # we get is at the bare minimum 7m sold
 
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ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
$200m+ was before advertising to be clear.

It seems reasonable to think FF16 was near Forbidden budget wise which was probably around $300m after promotion.
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Maybe, it's all extremely fluky tbh. Even if you use what little we know from other games or from journalists. I'd be hesitant to guess that a Japanese 3rd party is spending as much as Sony on a western first party game in the current era. The latter should be more expensive, as it can bear the weight since they don't give up anything in revenue sharing. My paper math on it would look something like:

200-300 full time devs working for ~5 years, probably longer due to COVID. IIRC we've previously been told that it's ~$100000 per head per year in the west, but we know it's lower in Japan, so let's say $80,000, and split the difference on the other numbers, say 250 and 5.5?

So that's 100-120m there. Of course that doesn't cover marketing/distribution, along with contract/outsourcing costs, VA, etc. Which I'd assume would easily be another 100m. Maybe undershooting there, but on the other hand the game hasn't been relentlessly promoted like you might seen on other big marketing cycles. ~250m seems more likely to me? Of which a portion is covered by Sony. Really this is all pretty weak guesswork though.

Why do you think the game needs to sell 8.6m to break even at $300m btw? Seems like they'd probably be there at ~5-6m given that the early sales would heavily skewed to full price digital, and the more expensive collectors physical and digital editions.

Honestly I can't imagine the break even point for FFXVI being dramatically different from XV, which was ~5m at full price apparently. Obviously budgets have grown since then, but XVI is an exclusive and has a base $70 price point, so that should mitigate the difference.
 
Lugia667 said:
I mean there was a time when Final Fantasy was a bigger deal to gamers than freaking Mario
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It still is, to me. But you’re not being fair here. You’re likely basing this on Internet forums and the like, where Final Fantasy is wayyyy more popular than it is to the general public. Final Fantasy has never had the massive mainstream appeal that Mario has. FF has like three games ever that hit 10m in sales. I don’t even know how many Mario games have hit 10m, but it’s probably above 20.
 
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Yeah. I keep seeing it brought up here that’d it’d be hilarious if SMRPG outsold FF16. But I would be shocked if it didn’t. It’s a Mario game on one of Nintendo’s biggest consoles ever lol.
 
While selling 5 to 10 mil copies is not a bad result it's still a sign that the franchise is stagnating in sales if not even in slight decline in a world were a lot of other franchises are seeing record breaking growth. Seeing franchises that were smaller than final fantasy like zelda, monster hunter, souls breaking out in a huge way and leaving final fantasy behind is not something that square enix should be proud of, the series went from the biggest ip from japan not named pokemon or Mario to just another series.
 
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Instro said:
Maybe, it's all extremely fluky tbh. Even if you use what little we know from other games or from journalists. I'd be hesitant to guess that a Japanese 3rd party is spending as much as Sony on a western first party game in the current era. The latter should be more expensive, as it can bear the weight since they don't give up anything in revenue sharing. My paper math on it would look something like:

200-300 full time devs working for ~5 years, probably longer due to COVID. IIRC we've previously been told that it's ~$100000 per head per year in the west, but we know it's lower in Japan, so let's say $80,000, and split the difference on the other numbers, say 250 and 5.5?

So that's 100-120m there. Of course that doesn't cover marketing/distribution, along with contract/outsourcing costs, VA, etc. Which I'd assume would easily be another 100m. Maybe undershooting there, but on the other hand the game hasn't been relentlessly promoted like you might seen on other big marketing cycles. ~250m seems more likely to me? Of which a portion is covered by Sony. Really this is all pretty weak guesswork though.

Why do you think the game needs to sell 8.6m to break even at $300m btw? Seems like they'd probably be there at ~5-6m given that the early sales would heavily skewed to full price digital, and the more expensive collectors physical and digital editions.

Honestly I can't imagine the break even point for FFXVI being dramatically different from XV, which was ~5m at full price apparently. Obviously budgets have grown since then, but XVI is an exclusive and has a base $70 price point, so that should mitigate the difference.
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You are correct that I forgot to account for Deluxe editions and the fact that Square gets more money from digital sales, my bad.
 
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Sturmgeist said:
You realize the bestselling Square Enix game EVER is the original FFVII at around 13m, right? Of course FFVIIR wasn’t going to sell as much as games with mass audience appeal like Luigi’s Mansion and Kirby. 5-10m is a phenomenal success for a company like SQEX.
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I don't think that was their point at all. FF isn't growing in the same way that many of Nintendo's B and C tier franchises are lately. For example, Luigi's Mansion 1 has seen sales doubling with each new iteration, from 3 -> 6 -> 12 million units worldwide. In nearly the same time frame, Final Fantasy is either stagnant or declining in sales with each entry. No one in their right mind would consider LM an essential franchise to Nintendo but here we are.

Like I said earlier in the thread, a chart comparing franchise sales of Pikmin vs. Final Fantasy would be quite amusing. And you could probably swap in a handful of other lesser Nintendo franchises without ruining the gag.

Furthermore, as @Lelouch0612 posted over at IB:
Lelouch0612 said:
Recent Playstation JRPG (Famitsu), launch weeks:

  1. Dragon Quest XI* - 950.338
  2. Final Fantasy XV - 716.649
  3. Final Fantasy VII Remake - 702.853
  4. Kingdom Hearts III - 640.406
  5. Dragon Quest Heroes - 566.569
  6. Dragon Quest Heroes II - 381.928
  7. Persona 5 - 344.854
  8. Final Fantasy XVI - 336.027
  9. Tales of Arise - 201.798
  10. Persona 5 Royal - 201.448
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XVI's launch week placing between Persona and a B/C-list franchise like Tales is not good when you're supposed to be "premiere" RPG franchise from Japan.

This is a very dangerous place for Final Fantasy to be because producers at S-E have said that they are committed to top-tier visuals. That gets more expensive with every hardware generation. S-E cannot continue on the current path because it is flat out untenable without growing sales.

Simply put, S-E wants/needs FF to grow in terms of sales. If XVI was an attempt at rejuvenating the brand, an opening weekend where WW sales are down ~40% from XV and ~10% from VIIR (which has a built-in halo effect because VII) is a clear statement from the community that the series is not heading in a direction that's resonating with them. Eventual PC and XBox sales will help, but they're not going to significantly expand the sales numbers until there's some deep discounts on the PC side (which is counter productive at certain levels of discount).
 
Fun thought experiment: which will reach 200k units opening week first: Final Fantasy or Octopath/Bravely?
 
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