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Sales Data Circana (NPD) October 2023: #1 Spider-Man 2 #2 Super Mario Wonder #3 AC Mirage; PS5 #1 Units + Revenue, NSW #2 Units, XBS #2 Revenue

Luminoth9090

Luminoth9090

Moblin
Credit: Welfare

www.installbaseforum.com

Circana (NPD) October 2023: #1 Spider-Man 2 #2 Super Mario Wonder #3 AC Mirage; PS5 #1 Units + Revenue, NSW #2 Units, XBS #2 Revenue

Alan Wake 2 being absent from the top 20 is sad, but not surprising. Having no physical release will hurt sales. I'm not sure Epic shares data with Circana. At the very least I don't think they share Epic Game Store which AW2 is exclusive to, so at the very least it's PC sales should be...
www.installbaseforum.com www.installbaseforum.com

State of the market
U.S. consumer spending on video game content, hardware and accessories fell 5% vs YA, to $4.0B. Declines were experienced across all categories of spend. The dip was partially driven by Call of Duty shifting release months.

Spending on video game content in October fell 4% when compared to a year ago, to $3.6 billion. Growth in physical console software and mobile spending was offset by declines in other areas, particularly digital premium downloads driven by the release date shift of Call of Duty.

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Hardware
Video game hardware spending fell 23% when compared to a year ago, to $327 million. All current generation consoles experienced a double-digit percentage decline in dollar sales when compared to a year ago.

PlayStation 5 was the best-selling hardware platform in both unit and dollar sales during October 2023. Xbox Series ranked 2nd in dollar sales, while Switch was #2 in units. Year-to-date hardware spending was 6% higher when compared to the same period in 2022, at $4.0 billion.

Software
Marvel’s Spider-Man 2 was the best-selling game of October, instantly becoming the 4th best-selling game of 2023 year-to-date. Marvel’s Spider-Man 2 also led all titles in physical software dollar sales during October. Launch month dollar sales of Marvel’s Spider-Man 2 exceeded those of September 2018’s Marvel’s Spider-Man by a double-digit percentage.

Super Mario Bros. Wonder debuted as the #2 best-selling game of October 2023. It currently ranks as the 21st best-selling game of 2023 year-to-date (note: digital sales for Nintendo published titles are not inluded in the title sales ranking charts).

Roblox was released on PlayStation platforms during October and ranked 4th across all titles on PlayStation 5 in U.S. monthly active users, according to Circana’s Player Engagement Tracker, trailing only Call of Duty: Modern Warfare II, Fortnite and Marvel’s Spider-Man 2.

The Finals from Embark Studios held an open beta on Steam during October, helping the title rank 4th overall in Steam monthly active users in the U.S. market. Only Counter-Strike 2, Baldur’s Gate III and Cyberpunk 2077 were higher.

Mobile
Sensor Tower reports the top 10 games by Oct U.S. consumer spend and rank chg vs Sep as: MONOPOLY GO!, Royal Match, Roblox, Candy Crush Saga, Pokémon GO, Coin Master, Jackpot Party – Casino Slots (+2), Gardenscapes (-1), Township (+1), and Clash of Clans (+8).

“US mobile gaming spend in Oct 2023 showed a modest increase (+2.1%) compared to Oct 2022. The top six games remain unchanged, as MONOPOLY GO!’s revenue seems to have finally stabilized (at a velocity considerably higher than its competitors),” said Samuel Aune of Sensor Tower.

"There were a few shuffles in the bottom four of the list, but the highlight this month is Clash of Clans, which jumped up 8 places to take the #10 spot,” said Samuel Aune of Sensor Tower. “Clash of Clans showed the most growth month over month of any mobile game in Oct 2023."

Accessories
October 2023 accessories spending fell 2% when compared to a year ago, to $147 million. The PS5 Dual Sense Wireless Controller Midnight Black was the month’s best-selling accessory in consumer spending.

Software charts

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Year To Date

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Nintendo / PlayStation / Xbox charts are no longer being reported.

Monthly Active User Engagement

PS5

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Xbox Series

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Steam

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Rankings
Units: PS5 > NSW > XBS
Revenue: PS5 > XBS > NSW

YTD Units: PS5 > NSW > XBS
YTD Revenue: PS5 > NSW > XBS

Thanks Mat Piscatella!

Estimates
PS5: 370k
NSW: 210k
XBS: 200k

Full Estimations for 2023

MonthPS5XBSNSW
Jan-23430,000200,000280,000
Feb-23560,000240,000290,000
Mar-23660,000280,000340,000
Apr-23360,000180,000420,000
May-23270,000160,000450,000
Jun-23430,000240,000350,000
Jul-23270,000160,000240,000
Aug-23400,000210,000200,000
Sep-23490,000300,000200,000
Oct -23370,000200,000210,000
YTD4,250,0002,170,0002,980,000
LTD16,150,00011,870,00042,390,000

Results for 2022 (NSW monthly numbers are Welfare's revised estimates but it's total is from NPD. PS5 and XBS monthly and total numbers are from NPD)

MonthPS5XBSNSW
Jan-22369,000307,000270,000
Feb-22128,000261,000410,000
Mar-22282,000489,000540,000
Apr-22234,000267,000365,000
May-22119,000177,000270,000
Jun-22277,000260,000385,000
Jul-22301,000147,000310,000
Aug-22341,000251,000295,000
Sep-22494,00288,000325,000
Oct-22456,000261,000250,000
Nov-221,328,000730,000920,000
Dec-221,331,000942,0001,490,000
Total5,660,0004,480,0005,830,000

NPD 2022 Yearly and Lifetime sales

2022LTD
NSW5,830,00039,410,000
PS55,660,00011,900,000
XBS4,480,0009,700,000
PS450,00034,760,000


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* Estimations as of October 31, 2023
 
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ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
Catastrophic Xbox and Forza month.

Microsoft doesn’t have another AAA release until Forza Horizon 6 probably next Fall. This is dire shit.
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Hellblade 2 is due out next year, probably a late spring/summer release. They also have Towerborne and Ara on deck, but those won't move the needle. Avowed and Fable are possible 2024 games, but I think both get moved back to 2025.

Also keep in mind that Call of Duty is a first party MS game now.
 
Josh5890 said:
Hellblade 2 is due out next year, probably a late spring/summer release. They also have Towerborne and Ara on deck, but those won't move the needle. Avowed and Fable are possible 2024 games, but I think both get moved back to 2025.

Also keep in mind that Call of Duty is a first party MS game now.
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Avowed and Hellblade 2 are lower budget titles and Hellblade 2's subject matter is very niche.

I expect both to be pretty good, but neither are going to be big at all sales-wise.

Fable didn't even have a 2024 date attached to its trailer so I think it's safely 2025/2026 (along with Doom Next and Gears 6)
 
There's a lot I'm excited to play from Xbox first party, but Hellblade 2 is absolutely on the bottom of the pile. First game sucked and this looks beyond vaporware. Avowed is exciting. Forza Motorsport mainline has always been middling. Horizon took over as the premier franchise since 2. Forza 7 was one of the worst games I played.
 
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Microsoft themselves have given up on competing, gamepass itself is an admission from them that they can't release games that sells tons of million all the time like Nintendo and Sony have no problem doing, so they went with a streaming model due to their failure to compete. If they had the same software sales as the others streaming wouldn't be an option.
 
Kinda feels like Sony is catching up to Nintendo in terms of sales difference between first and third party games. Spider-man 2 sales are at Nintendo first party levels and it's unlikely for any other third party game aside from GTA to get even remotely close to that number on PS5 alone.
 
9-Volt said:
Kinda feels like Sony is catching up to Nintendo in terms of sales difference between first and third party games. Spider-man 2 sales are at Nintendo first party levels and it's unlikely for any other third party game aside from GTA to get even remotely close to that number on PS5 alone.
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This has been happening ever since PS4. Sony IPs that they cultivated and carved a starting on PS3 are finding a very Nintendo like sucess now. They successfully were able to grow their IPs and brand to very high heights, to the point were their own IPs are differentials for console choice, much like Nintendo ones are too.
 
By late 2024 (when we expect Switch 2 to be release), Switch 1 will be +46 millions, outselling PS2. Reaching NDS number is honestly very difficult without doubt but getting near 50 millions is still possible.
 
So does the NPD ever update their numbers with Nintendo numbers? I understand not having digital on month of release, but I wonder if they make sure their numbers match what Nintendo provides during investors briefings
 
Lugia667 said:
Man I dunno what Microsoft is doing. Getting outsold by switch like this in its home turf
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The argument from Xbox people is that Call of Duty ads having an Xbox logo instead of a Playstation logo at the end will fix all of this.

But 210k after Microsoft's only two AAA releases since December 2021 is just bleak.

"Console sales don't matter for Microsoft" then just leave the market, lol. They're losing hundreds of dollars per console still.
 
Microsoft thoroughly earned their distant 3rd place honestly, but I really hope they can turn it around to keep the others honest. Less competition isn't good. Gamepass maybe isn't quite the golden goose some expect, but it is good value for consumers, and its doubtful any competitors will something quite as robust for a while. With Activiblizzion King under tow and avowed and stuff on the way, they may help move the needle a bit, but we will probably need to see next gen before any major market gains are made. Or overall revenue expands in line with competitors with gamepass.

Gamepass with king on mobile with some smart controls/cloud and native games may be good, especially in Asian, Indian and developing countries.

The digital only future leaked for MS also feels to be coming way sooner than their competitors, so I hope they've read the market right on that one. (Or not, I'd really prefer at least one physical unit being produced, it still feels 10 years too early for an only digital refresh.) I guess there is time to pivot back for next gen if it doesn't work, at any rate disc readers aren't too expensive to viable optional add-ons.
 
Also I'm really unimpressed with Starfield's 2nd month sales, that's a big drop
 
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All this means is that the Series X successor is coming sooner rather than later. I can see them launching their next home console with the Elder Scrolls VI
 
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Will Nintendo go bankrupt with TotK’s bombing as the second best selling video game of the year? These are the important questions we need to be asking now.
 
Those sales for Xbox are rough, especially considering that the Switch is in its final year before its successor comes out and its selling less than it. PS5 is hitting its stride tho
 
Honestly Mario Wonder is either selling less than I expected, or Spiderman is selling better than I expected. I, like many other people, expected Mario Wonder to outsell Spiderman by a good margin. Even though these US numbers are physical only, I would still have expected it to outsell it personally. PS5 has a fraction of the Switch user as, and I thought that a 2D Mario game would be a monster seller.
In terms of legs, I expect Mario Wonder to outsell Spiderman for the rest of the year, since it has broader appeal and it will likely be popular holiday purchase.

Another thing is that Tears of the Kingdom doesn't have very strong legs. I need to see the comparisons with BotW, but I think that game was charting for far longer. Of course, part of it is declining hardware sales, but I expected it to hold on for a while.
 
Ahmed said:
Honestly Mario Wonder is either selling less than I expected, or Spiderman is selling better than I expected.
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I think it's more of the latter than the former, as it seems like Spider-Man 2 overperformed in the U.S.

We also tend to underestimate how well the Spider-Man games sell. Spider-Man 1 sold over 20 million copies.
 
Lugia667 said:
we are talking about a game that almost sold 20 in 4 months as underperforming.....
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Zelda isn't like your regular generic AAA slop we see from the West. Zelda has prestige. This was the game to take the Zelda franchise to Mario Kart 8 numbers. I hope it does better on Switch 2.
 
Yamanoi said:
Zelda isn't like your regular generic AAA slop we see from the West. Zelda has prestige. This was the game to take the Zelda franchise to Mario Kart 8 numbers. I hope it does better on Switch 2.
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Zelda is never going to perform on the same level as Mario Kart because it literally just doesn’t have the same mass appeal. Mario Kart is a series that’s universally known and loved by everyone, even those outside of gaming circles. It’s easy to play, and it’s fun with friends and family.

Zelda is big, yes, but a singleplayer action-adventure game - confined to one system no less - shouldn’t be expected to sell as well as a four-quadrant juggernaut.
 
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Yamanoi said:
Zelda isn't like your regular generic AAA slop we see from the West. Zelda has prestige. This was the game to take the Zelda franchise to Mario Kart 8 numbers. I hope it does better on Switch 2.
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Is this a bit? Nothing except GTA reaches those numbers.....

Even the most wild TOTK predictions had it nowhere near 57 million
 
To put things in perspective, BOTW was at 16 million sales at the end of 2019 and 22 million sales in March 2021. So it took about 3 years for BOTW to get where TOTK is at now. Of course, that was in due part because there were fewer Switch owners. But also, the reason why BOTW kept charting was because new owners picked up the game as they bought the system. BOTW accumulated it's sales over time. 31 million copies sold is impressive. But it came increments of 500K this quarter, 1 million this quarter, 300k that quarter and so forth across 6 YEARS. TOTK will probably be at 20+ million at the end of the year which is likely beyond what most people would have predicted. TOTK hasn't even through its first holiday and hasn't gotten any official discounts which BOTW had multiple. All 30 million BOTW owners were never going to buy the sequel Day 1.

As for Mario Wonder, let's go back to New! Super Mario Bros. Wii for comparison. In November 2009, it's launch month, it sold 1.39 million copies in the US. After 45 days, it had reached 4.2 million copies. It actually sold more in December than November. By the end of that year, it was at 10 million worldwide.

People need to factor in the length of time when doing their sales expectations. Many have grown accustomed of looking at the current number of certain titles and expect their sequels to instantly be at that number. But the reason for those high sales is because of the slow accumulation of sales over time.
 
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