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Sales Data Circana November 2023

Luminoth9090

Luminoth9090

Moblin
Credit: Welfare

www.installbaseforum.com

Circana November 2023: #1 MWIII #2 SM2 #3 Hogwarts; PS5 #1 Units + Revenue, XBS #2 Units+Rev [UP 4: PS5 Disc >99% of sales, Series X Up YOY, S Down]

State of the market U.S. consumer spending on video game content, hardware and accessories fell 7% when compared to a year ago, to $5.9 billion. The decline was driven by a 24% drop in hardware spending and a 3% dip in content. November video game content spending dropped 3% when compared to a...
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State of the market

U.S. consumer spending on video game content, hardware and accessories fell 7% when compared to a year ago, to $5.9 billion. The decline was driven by a 24% drop in hardware spending and a 3% dip in content.

November video game content spending dropped 3% when compared to a year ago, to $4.6 billion. An 11% decline in Console & Portable Content spending was partially offset by 3% growth across each of the Mobile, Subscription, and 'PC, Cloud & Non-Console VR' Content segments. A primary driver of the year-on-year decline in Console & Portable Content was the comparable strength of the new release slate. November 2022 featured the launches of both God of War: Ragnarök and Pokémon: Scarlet/Violet.

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Hardware

November video game hardware spending fell 24% when compared to a year ago, to $964 million. All current generation consoles experienced a double-digit percentage decline in dollar sales when compared to a year ago, with Nintendo Switch showing the sharpest drop year-on-year.

PlayStation 5 remained the best-selling hardware platform in both unit and dollar sales during November 2023. Xbox Series ranked 2nd across both measures. Year-to-date hardware spending fell 1% when compared to the same period in 2022, at $5.0 billion. PlayStation 5 remains the best-selling hardware platform in both units and dollars 2023 year-to-date, with Nintendo Switch placing 2nd across both measures.

PlayStation Portal debuted as the #4 best-selling hardware platform of November with the limited quantities available at launch selling out.

Software

Call of Duty: Modern Warfare III was the best-selling game of November, instantly becoming the 2nd best-selling game of 2023 year-to-date. It is the 5th consecutive year that a Call of Duty title was November’s best-seller (Red Dead Redemption II ranked 1st in Nov 2018). According to Circana’s Player Engagement Tracker, Call of Duty HQ (which includes Call of Duty: Modern Warfare III player activity) ranked 2nd in monthly active users across both PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series consoles during the month of November, trailing only Fortnite.

Hogwarts Legacy ranked 3rd in November full game dollar sales, driven by the launch of the Nintendo Switch version of the game. Hogwarts Legacy ranked as the #2 best-selling title on Nintendo Switch during November. Hogwarts Legacy remains the best-selling game of 2023 YTD.

Assisted by price promotion, Just Dance 2024 Edition jumped from #73 on the best-selling charts in October to 20th in November. Nintendo Switch was Just Dance 2024 Edition’s leading sales platform during the month.

Inclusion in subscription offerings helped several titles see active user count boosts. On PS5, Aliens: Fireteam Elite ranked 11th in monthly active users during Nov, up from #714 in Oct. On Xbox Series consoles, Wild Hearts jumped from 501st in October MAU to #18 in November.

On Steam, Lethal Company ranked 2nd in monthly active users in Nov, behind only Counter-Strike 2. The title placed 115th in October. Half-Life increased from #383 in October to 20th in November thanks to the release of the Half-Life 25th Anniversary Update during the month.

Sales of Digital at Retail products (including point of sale activated gift cards and digital codes on receipt) showed single-digit percentage dollar sales growth in Nov vs YA. Nov consumer spending on Roblox and Fortnite digital at retail products each more than doubled vs YA.

Mobile

Sensor Tower reported the top 10 games by U.S. consumer spending in Nov and the rank change from Oct as: MONOPOLY GO!, Royal Match, Roblox, Candy Crush Saga, Coin Master (+1), Pokémon GO, Jackpot Party – Casino Slots, Gardenscapes, Evony (+2) and Township (-1).

“US mobile gaming spend in Nov 2023 showed another modest increase (+2.6%) compared to Nov 2022. Looking at the top games, we seem to have reached a fairly stable hierarchy, with MONOPOLY GO! showing no signs of giving over the number one spot,” said Samuel Aune of Sensor Tower.

Accessories

November 2023 accessories spending increased 3% when compared to a year ago, to $303 million, driven by 8% growth in gamepad spending. The PS5 Dual Sense Wireless Controller Midnight Black was again the month’s best-selling accessory in consumer spending.

Software charts

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Year To Date

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Monthly Active User Engagement

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Rankings

Units: PS5 > XBS > NSW
Revenue: PS5 > XBS > NSW

YTD Units: PS5 > NSW > XBS
YTD Revenue: PS5 > NSW > XBS

UPDATE

PS5: <1,062,000
XBS: <584,000
NSW: <584,000

Each console is down >20% from November 2022.

Thanks Mat Piscatella!
 
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November estimations

PS5 - 1050k
XBS - 580k
NSW - 570k

Full Estimations for 2023

MonthPS5XBSNSW
Jan-23430,000200,000280,000
Feb-23560,000240,000290,000
Mar-23660,000280,000340,000
Apr-23360,000180,000420,000
May-23270,000160,000450,000
Jun-23430,000240,000350,000
Jul-23270,000160,000240,000
Aug-23400,000210,000200,000
Sep-23490,000300,000200,000
Oct -23370,000200,000210,000
Nov - 231,050,000580,000570,000
YTD5,300,0002,750,0003,550,000
LTD17,200,00012,450,00042,960,000

Results for 2022 (NSW monthly numbers are Welfare's revised estimates but it's total is from NPD. PS5 and XBS monthly and total numbers are from NPD)

MonthPS5XBSNSW
Jan-22369,000307,000270,000
Feb-22128,000261,000410,000
Mar-22282,000489,000540,000
Apr-22234,000267,000365,000
May-22119,000177,000270,000
Jun-22277,000260,000385,000
Jul-22301,000147,000310,000
Aug-22341,000251,000295,000
Sep-22494,00288,000325,000
Oct-22456,000261,000250,000
Nov-221,328,000730,000920,000
Dec-221,331,000942,0001,490,000
Total5,660,0004,480,0005,830,000
LTD11,900,0009,700,00039,410,000

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* Estimates as of November 30, 2023.
 
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god. I really hate to see that shit in the number one spot for the year.

it’s not to be discussed here but I’m logging my immense disappointment for the future.
 
Big declines in November 2023 versus November 2022, not good.

PS5 - 1328k to 1050k est.
NSW - 920k to 570k est.
XBS - 730k to 580k est.
 
Luminoth9090 said:
Big declines in November 2023 versus November 2022, not good.

PS5 - 1328k to 1050k est.
NSW - 920k to 570k est.
XBS - 730k to 580k est.
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COVID gaming bubble x cost of everything rising x general tech bubble popping, probably on the factors front

it was always coming but it’s not going to be a good few years for spreadsheets
 
In January Nintendo need to start the hype train for the Switch 2, it is time to say farewell to the old Switch. Being almost 40% down yoy in November and evergreen software nowhere in sight (not even MKDX) is not good. Zelda TotK gave Switch one last boost in May but it was just a couple of months of increased sales and now it is declining significantly in both Japan and the U.S.
 
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Suswave said:
god. I really hate to see that shit in the number one spot for the year.

it’s not to be discussed here but I’m logging my immense disappointment for the future.
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I feel like with Zelda being at number 3 solely off of its physical sales, it's gotta be the "real" number one for the year, right?
 
Luminoth9090 said:
In January Nintendo need to start the hype train for the Switch 2, it is time to say farewell to the old Switch. Being almost 40% down yoy in November and evergreen software nowhere in sight (not even MKDX) is not good. Zelda TotK gave Switch one last boost in May but it was just a couple of months of increased sales and now it is declining significantly in both Japan and the U.S.
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Depends on whether they wanna reveal it before the FY ends, I think it's pretty likely. Some people suggest it will be after the Lunar New Year

It will come though
 
These numbers seem bad for the industry overall if I'm being honest. Is Sony even going to hit their sky high sales targets for this fiscal year with sales actually declining in November YoY? Looks like Spider-Man 2 didn't help that much.

And yeah ... the whole "Nintendo should keep Switch 1 going! There is no momentum loss!" dream is dead. It's clear that the spring bounce from Tears of the Kingdom and the Mario movie is over. Even with a new 2D Mario and Mario RPG, the system suffered a significant decline from last year and is now no.3 for units sold in a November month behind the XBox Series.

Switch 2 basically has to come for 2024 or Nintendo is in trouble.
 
The lack of big PS5 or Switch exclusives this November versus last has really told in the year over year comparisons. Switch decline is obviously to be expected at this point in the lifecycle, and Xbox hasn't been doing brilliantly all year for a mid-life system, but PS5 being down is surprising even with the comparison to God of War Ragnarok last year.

The market needs a hardware refresh, and Nintendo and Sony look set to do exactly that next year, albeit one with a next generation and another with a mid-gen refresh. I can't help but think that, if feasible, Nintendo will launch in the summer, early in their next fiscal year.
 
Microsoft is in a far more precarious situation than Nintedo imo, only barely ding better than the Switch in it's strongest market this year and with no new system on the horizon for a while (Not that releasing one this soon is a good idea)

That they are doing an $100 discount for all of December speaks volumes. Gamepass can only do so much. Honestly not making COD exclusive might be a mistake that costs them
 
also should be stated that the economy in the US is pretty shit right now, and even then, I feel like these numbers are not all bad. Still a million PS5s when they're more expensive than ever and people's budgets are really tight.
 
I mean it is the Switch’s 7th year on the market… I think that perspective is needed. I don’t think it matters too much when Switch 2 is announced as long as it’s next year.
 
Christo750 said:
also should be stated that the economy in the US is pretty shit right now, and even then, I feel like these numbers are not all bad. Still a million PS5s when they're more expensive than ever and people's budgets are really tight.
Click to expand...

Sony might be in for a reality check if they think a $600-$700 PS5 Pro or something is going to really successful.
 
MisterSpo said:
The lack of big PS5 or Switch exclusives this November versus last has really told in the year over year comparisons. Switch decline is obviously to be expected at this point in the lifecycle, and Xbox hasn't been doing brilliantly all year for a mid-life system, but PS5 being down is surprising even with the comparison to God of War Ragnarok last year.

The market needs a hardware refresh, and Nintendo and Sony look set to do exactly that next year, albeit one with a next generation and another with a mid-gen refresh. I can't help but think that, if feasible, Nintendo will launch in the summer, early in their next fiscal year.
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I mean Spider-Man 2 and Mario Wonder should still have been hardware drivers into November, it's not like they launched 3 months ago, they launched just as October was ending.
 
Machrider said:
Sony might be in for a reality check if they think a $699 PS5 Pro or something is going to really successful.
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Maybe. it's probably being geared internally as a more "luxury" product. I'm sure they don't have the highest expectations for it.
 
Mekanos said:
I mean it is the Switch’s 7th year on the market… I think that perspective is needed. I don’t think it matters too much when Switch 2 is announced as long as it’s next year.
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I feel like until it's official there will always be some anxiety about 2025
 
But people told me that Nintendo would never release another Zelda game later in the year because they didn't want it to hurt TOTK's holiday sales. To that I must ask, what holiday sales?

Jokes aside, Zelda is a banger, I can't believe just how bad the legs are. It's really cool that 3 of the top 5 best selling games of the year are fantastic single player games though, maybe gamers do have taste after all.
 
HeyItsPulse said:
But people told me that Nintendo would never release another Zelda game later in the year because they didn't want it to hurt TOTK's holiday sales. To that I must ask, what holiday sales?

Jokes aside, Zelda is a banger, I can't believe just how bad the legs are. It's really cool that 3 of the top 5 best selling games of the year are fantastic single player games though, maybe gamers do have taste after all.
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Zelda's officially graduated into "event game" status, it had monster sales but the hype around the game so high that people felt compelled to buy it immediately rather than wait. Which really isn't a terrible thing in some respects.
 
While we allow HL to be mentioned in the OP of a sales thread, we do not want it to be further discussed. Please refrain from bringing it up further. – MissingNo., meatbag, Tangerine_Cookie
Also looks like Hogwarts Legacy did some big numbers on the Nintendo Switch. For people who say "why port to Switch when the graphics are going to be degraded so much!" ... well this is one reason why developers still are willing to do it.
 
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Luminoth9090 said:

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* As of November 30, 2023.
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Just wanted to comment on this chart, because there's some fascinating detail here (I assume this is from Install Base Forums?).

The N64 actually had the best launch of any tracked home console in the US market until Playstation 4 it looks like.

That's crazy. It outsold the PS1 + Saturn combined 1st years by more than double as well. It's insane how much Nintendo killed what should have been a golden goose with a dumb format decision.
 
Machrider said:
Just wanted to comment on this chart, because there's some fascinating detail here (I assume this is from Install Base Forums?).

The N64 actually had the best launch of any tracked home console in the US market until Playstation 4 it looks like.

That's crazy. It outsold the PS1 + Saturn combined 1st years by more than double as well. It's insane how much Nintendo killed what should have been a golden goose with a dumb format decision.
Click to expand...
I compiled the chart but the yearly data (2000-2022) was sourced from InstallBase archive threads, for 1995 to 1999 the data was from a retro sales thread on neogaf (a former NPD employee posted numbers). The N64 was released in September in the U.S so it's 1st year sales are going to be higher than most other consoles that usually release in November. Same with the Switch, 3DS and PSP, they all released in March so 1st year sales are huge in comparison to other console's 1st year sales.
 
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BlackthornOrion said:
I feel like with Zelda being at number 3 solely off of its physical sales, it's gotta be the "real" number one for the year, right?
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maybe, but it’s up against something that released on all platforms. even if it “beat” it, that doesn’t change the bleak and clear message of those towering sales
 
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Machrider said:
Sony might be in for a reality check if they think a $600-$700 PS5 Pro or something is going to really successful.
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It's going to do what it's intended to. It's never going to be the main seller. That's always going to be the PS5.
 
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Neither Microsoft or Sony have much to worry about considering GTA6 is on the horizon and that’s probably going to do wild things for both of them.
 
JorgenRaft said:
Neither Microsoft or Sony have much to worry about considering GTA6 is on the horizon and that’s probably going to do wild things for both of them.
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I wonder if that might turn out more like GTAIV though, I remember a lot of people hyped that up as a massive seller that would propel the 360/PS3 way beyond the Wii and it never did that.

One also wonders how much longer the PS/XB market is basically going to be COD + GTA, GTA + COD, COD + GTA, lol with Madden and NBA 2K and FC/FIFA thrown in.
 
Machrider said:
I wonder if that might turn out more like GTAIV though, I remember a lot of people hyped that up as a massive seller that would propel the 360/PS3 way beyond the Wii and it never did that.

One also wonders how much longer the PS/XB market is basically going to be COD + GTA, GTA + COD, COD + GTA, lol with Madden and NBA 2K and FC/FIFA thrown in.
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GTA4 was obviously big but we're living in a post GTA5 world now same way we're living in a post BotW world for Zelda. 5 has basically sold 8 times as much as 4 did. Hell, even RDR2 more than doubled 4.
 
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There is a small chance Switch goes past PS2 but it isn't that high as I expect them to go full gear if Switch 2 comes out next year.
 
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Nintendo of cause known about Switch slow decreasing and they at the moment preparing to announce a Switch 2. Hopefully next month January they officially announce next gen Switch
 
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Christo750 said:
also should be stated that the economy in the US is pretty shit right now, and even then, I feel like these numbers are not all bad. Still a million PS5s when they're more expensive than ever and people's budgets are really tight.
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this is a reasonable assumption but, oddly enough, in “the industry” we are seeing the customer go for more “luxury” experiences. there seems to be a growing gulf between absolute value and absolute luxury and people are going for one or the other - the middle ground is where things are hurting.
as others have said, bad badddd results. for nintendo, this makes sense and they have a clear course correct - release a new console. sony, not great, but not horrible - they have a revision coming up and this is something that can be turned around. for microsoft… yeesh.
 
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