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Sales Data Circana March 2024: #1 Dragon's Dogma #3 MLB: The Show #5 Rise of Ronin #6 Peach; PS5 #1 Units + Rev, Switch #2 Units Xbox #2 Rev

Luminoth9090

Luminoth9090

Moblin

www.installbaseforum.com

Circana March 2024: #1 Dragon's Dogma #3 MLB: The Show #5 Rise of Ronin #6 Peach; PS5 #1 Units + Rev, Switch #2 Units Xbox #2 Rev [Update in OP]

State of the market Projected total US spending on video game hardware, content and accessories gained 4% in March 2024 vs YA, reaching $4.9B. Mobile content spending grew 15%, offseting a 32% drop in hardware. (Mobile source: Sensor Tower) Mobile’s strong performance was supplemented by a 3%...
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Credit: Welfare

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State of the market

Projected total US spending on video game hardware, content and accessories gained 4% in March 2024 vs YA, reaching $4.9B. Mobile content spending grew 15%, offseting a 32% drop in hardware. (Mobile source: Sensor Tower)

Mobile’s strong performance was supplemented by a 3% increase in Console Content spend, along with a 2% gain in the PC, Cloud and Non-Console VR Content segment. Mobile accounted for 89% of the total year-on-year growth in video game content spending during the month.

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Hardware

March video game hardware spending fell 32% when compared to a year ago, to $391 million. PlayStation 5, Xbox Series and Switch spending each declined a minimum of 30% year-on-year. Hardware spending finished the first quarter down 24% versus the first quarter of 2023.

PlayStation 5 led the hardware market in unit and dollar sales during both March and the first quarter. Nintendo Switch once again finished 2nd in unit sales across both time periods while Xbox Series ranked 2nd in dollars.

Software

Dragon’s Dogma II debuted as the best-selling premium game of March and the 3rd best-selling game of 2024 YTD. With just one month in market, Dragon’s Dogma II has already surpassed the life-to-date tracked dollar sales of Dragon’s Dogma and Dragon’s Dogma: Dark Arisen combined.

Helldivers II remains the best-selling premium game of 2024 year-to-date after placing 2nd in March. Helldivers II currently ranks 7th in lifetime US dollar sales for Sony published titles after just two months in market.

Final Fantasy VII: Rebirth remained the 4th best-selling game of 2024 year-to-date, despite falling 5 spots in the monthly rankings to 7th in March after placing 2nd in February. Final Fantasy VII: Rebirth currently ranks 14th across all Final Fantasy releases in lifetime dollar sales in the US market. Final Fantasy XV is 1st all-time, followed by Final Fantasy VII: Remake and the original Final Fantasy VII.

Mobile

Sensor Tower reports the top 10 games by US consumer spending in March and the change in rank vs Feb as: MONOPOLY GO!, Royal Match, Roblox, Candy Crush Saga, Coin Master (+1), Whiteout Survival (+1), Last War: Survival (+4), Pokémon Go (-3), Township (+1) and Clash of Clans (-2).

“The highlight this month is Last War: Survival, which grew 40% to overtake Pokémon GO, Township, and Clash of Clans,” said Samuel Aune of Sensor Tower. “Last War: Survival is now right on the heels of fellow 2023 4X Strategy launch Whiteout Survival (+14% MoM)."

“The top four games remain unchanged and continue to maintain a significant gap from the rest of the field, with MONOPOLY GO! still holding a commanding lead over 2nd place Royal Match,” said Aune.

Accessories

March spending on Accessories increased 9% when compared to a year ago to $242M, helped by 8% growth in headset/headphone spending.

The PlayStation Dual Sense Edge was the best-selling accessory in dollar sales during both March and the first quarter.

Software Charts

Multiplatform

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Year to Date

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Playstation

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Xbox

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Switch

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Monthly Active User Engagement

Top 10 Games Played on PlayStation 5 Ranked by Monthly Active Users (US)

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Top 10 Games Played on Xbox Series Ranked by Monthly Active Users (US)

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Top 10 Games Played on Steam Ranked by Monthly Active Users (US)

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Rankings

Units: PS5 > NSW > XBS
Revenue: PS5 > XBS > NSW

Thanks Mat Piscatella!

Welfare's Estimates

PS5: 525K
NSW: 235K
XBS: 205K
 
Last edited:
So year over revenue declined between 30 to 35% for all platforms and the much cheaper price of the PS5 versus last year (discounted all month) also needs to be noted, here are the unit estimates by Welfare from InstallBase.

March 2024

PS5: 525K
NSW: 235K
XBS: 205K

Estimations for 2024

MonthPS5XBSNSW
Jan-24425,000210,000250,000
Feb-24410,000195,000220,000
Mar-24525,000205,000235,000
Total-241,360,000610,000705,000

Full Estimations for 2023

MonthPS5XBSNSW
Jan-23430,000200,000280,000
Feb-23560,000240,000290,000
Mar-23660,000280,000340,000
Apr-23360,000180,000420,000
May-23270,000160,000450,000
Jun-23430,000240,000350,000
Jul-23270,000160,000240,000
Aug-23400,000210,000200,000
Sep-23490,000300,000200,000
Oct -23370,000200,000210,000
Nov - 231,050,000580,000570,000
Dec - 231,530,0001,130,0001,250,000
20236,830,0003,880,0004,800,000
LTD18,730,00013,580,00044,210,000
 
It's not a game I have any interest in but it is really neat to see Dragon's Dogma at the top of a sales chart.
 
It's odd to see MLB: The Show's publisher listed as "Multiple Video Game Manufacturers" and not just Sony.
 
WOOO DRAGON'S DOGMA 🔥🔥

The game has its flaws but man is it fun, weird and unique. Glad to see its doing well!
 
Luminoth9090 said:
Tears of the Kingdom out of the Switch top 10 in Zelda's strongest market and below much older titles like Smash, the legs of this game are very poor compared to BOTW. The inflated 70$ price are hurting it's legs.
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Nah, it was just very frontloaded. I'm pretty sure it will have decent legs in the coming months to years.
 
Luminoth9090 said:
Tears of the Kingdom out of the Switch top 10 in Zelda's strongest market and below much older titles like Smash, the legs of this game are very poor compared to BOTW. The inflated 70$ price are hurting it's legs.
Click to expand...

I mean, maybe, but it could also just not as captured the imagination of as many people due to not being seen as as original by being a direct sequel and reusing a lot of assets.
 
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Luminoth9090 said:
After BOTW had sold 20 million copies it still continued to have great legs.
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TotK just won't hit those numbers, which is fine for a direct sequel on the same console that follows a game that had insane sales. TotK will simply have slightly less insane sales, that's it. There doesn't need to have something wrong with it.

In terms of legs, everyone bought the game as soon as it came out instead of being spread out over years as the Switch is at this point a very mature system. Which again, is fine and logical.
 
There was never indication TOTK would even come close to BOTW’s sales, just wishful thinking. Not to mention BOTW is still selling, too.
 
I'm curious to see what the WW sales for Princess Peach Showtime. #6 on the US chart with no digital and with the top 5 being all big hitters is a good sign imo.

Great to see Super Mario Bros. Wonder still being #15 on the YTD chart, hopefully it still gets a very decent second quarter sales WW after the outstanding first quarter sales of almost 12m. I believe it'll have great legs.

Luminoth9090 said:
Tears of the Kingdom out of the Switch top 10 in Zelda's strongest market and below much older titles like Smash, the legs of this game are very poor compared to BOTW. The inflated 70$ price are hurting it's legs.
Click to expand...
I don't think so. Breath of the Wild sales grew together with the Switch hardware sales, while Tears of the Kingdom did almost 2/3 of its lifetime sales in its opening quarter. Sales falling off a cliff after such front loaded launches is normal, just like it happened with Scarlet and Violet that slowed down considerably after the first quarter.

I mean we can go as far back as Super Mario Odyssey that sold 9m on the opening quarter, ~1.5 million on the following quarter, the slowed down but kept selling until getting to 27m

Tears of the Kingdom probably won't catch BotW LTD sales, because BotW released first and was a must have for the whole generation, is still selling and enters on sale once in a while, while Tears of the Kingdom just happened to have an insane first quarter and has already sold more than what sequels on the same console tend to. It'll have legs throughout Switch 2 life too until that one gets its Zelda.
 
DD2 ended up being a slight disappointment for me but glad it is still doing well and hope they improve upon it when the enevitable DLC comes out.
 
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Luminoth9090 said:
Tears of the Kingdom out of the Switch top 10 in Zelda's strongest market and below much older titles like Smash, the legs of this game are very poor compared to BOTW. The inflated 70$ price are hurting it's legs.
Click to expand...
It was one spot over Scarlet and Violet last month. It's likely #11 and trading blows with it.
 
A couple takeaways here…


-The U.S. seems to be, by far, Sony’s strongest market for the PS5. Even with near-30% YOY drops on hardware, the software charts seem to finally, after several years, be made up of a majority of PS5 listings.

-Unicorn Overlord in the Top 8 Overall, and second-best selling SKU on Switch! Very deserved. I’m glad that the Switch userbase showed up for this game across Japan, the U.S., and some other countries we have rankings for. Vanillaware hopefully is pleased.
 
Luminoth9090 said:
Tears of the Kingdom out of the Switch top 10 in Zelda's strongest market and below much older titles like Smash, the legs of this game are very poor compared to BOTW. The inflated 70$ price are hurting it's legs.
Click to expand...
Not sure how much the price is impacting but yeah.
BOTW legs are insane when compared to other Zelda games. I wouldn't be suprised if outpaces TOTK at some point this year after latest Japan physical chart.
 
Wooooo at Unicorn Overlord sales. Will probably drop out next month but still great to see it so high.
 
gamewhoopr said:
-Unicorn Overlord in the Top 8 Overall, and second-best selling SKU on Switch! Very deserved. I’m glad that the Switch userbase showed up for this game across Japan, the U.S., and some other countries we have rankings for. Vanillaware hopefully is pleased.
Click to expand...
Yeah, this is great news for Vanillaware.

Even more impressive when you compare the type of placements the game was/is having on the Nintendo eShop in Asian markets(Hong Kong, South Korea, Japan, etc...) compared to the west.
With this in mind, I can't help but feel like a decently sized opportunity was lost by not having a PC version available, considering the presence of the platform in some of these markets(and other Asian markets).
 
Luminoth9090 said:
Tears of the Kingdom out of the Switch top 10 in Zelda's strongest market and below much older titles like Smash, the legs of this game are very poor compared to BOTW. The inflated 70$ price are hurting it's legs.
Click to expand...
woke up and chose violence huh?
 
JorgenRaft said:
I really thought HD2 was going to come and go pretty quickly before it came out, so it's still wild to me that it's doing THIS well. If anything, hopefully this inspires more PvE games.

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It's kind of crazy just how series like Halo and Resident Evil somehow didn't jump on these ideas earlier. I admittedly didn't follow the story, but apparently they had an idea similar to this for Halo with ODSTs and it never got greenlit. I'm glad a relatively "new" IP is what blew up in this way, but it is frustrating seeing how these companies sometimes are just too conservative to expand and make successful spin-offs. RE is especially weird given how successful RE5 was and how moderately successful Revelations / Outbreak games were. Just speaking about PvE, obviously it wouldn't be 1:1 with Helldivers 2.
 
AngryAlchemist said:
It's kind of crazy just how series like Halo and Resident Evil somehow didn't jump on these ideas earlier. I admittedly didn't follow the story, but apparently they had an idea similar to this for Halo with ODSTs and it never got greenlit. I'm glad a relatively "new" IP is what blew up in this way, but it is frustrating seeing how these companies sometimes are just too conservative to expand and make successful spin-offs. RE is especially weird given how successful RE5 was and how moderately successful Revelations / Outbreak games were. Just speaking about PvE, obviously it wouldn't be 1:1 with Helldivers 2.
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I imagine it might take them some convincing after games like Umbrella Corps, Operation Raccoon City, and RE:Verse were received so poorly. Though maybe not, as they do certainly seem to keep trying every few years. Hopefully something like HD2's success critically and commercially sparks some inspiration in them to create something that makes more sense for RE, as there is so much potential there. And I love RE's post-RE7 direction but I do miss the hell out of the co op games at the same time (even if 6 and Rev2 weren't as good as 5), so I do hope to see that return in some form one day as well.
 
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JorgenRaft said:
I really thought HD2 was going to come and go pretty quickly before it came out, so it's still wild to me that it's doing THIS well. If anything, hopefully this inspires more PvE games.

Click to expand...


Co-Op PvE games can do very very well. Especially if you have a PC SKU, so many examples in the last few years.
From Helldivers 2 to games like Lethal Company and Deep Rock Galactic and so on.

AngryAlchemist said:
It's kind of crazy just how series like Halo and Resident Evil somehow didn't jump on these ideas earlier. I'm glad a relatively "new" IP is what blew up in this way, but it is frustrating seeing how these companies sometimes are just too conservative to expand and make successful spin-offs. RE is especially weird given how successful RE5 was and how moderately successful Revelations / Outbreak games were. Just speaking about PvE, obviously it wouldn't be 1:1 with Helldivers 2.
Click to expand...

I remain baffled that Capcom keeps trying to do PvP (or PvPvE like Exoprimal) multiplayer games when they seemingly are never able to get them right.
This is definitely an area where they could improve as a publisher.
On the other hand, RE's favourite MP content from people are things like Outbreak and RE5's co-op Mercenaries.
This is without talking about how one of their biggest franchise is PvE(Monster Hunter).

Some sort co-op Survival/Horde PvE game set in the Resident Evil universe seems like it would have the potential to be a big earner for them.
This is especially true considering they've grown their PC sales tremendously in the last few years and this is a genre that is quite popular.
 
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Woah, nice run for Sailor Peach and Unicorn Overlord! Peach being physical only makes it even more impressive.

I know it was mainly a problem in Japan, but i hope this shows Atlus/SEGA that they shouldn't skip out on phyiscal production for their Switch games.
 
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Mekanos said:
There was never indication TOTK would even come close to BOTW’s sales, just wishful thinking. Not to mention BOTW is still selling, too.
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It's easy to say that now but before it was released many people were hyping up the sales potential of TOTK. The general consensus on forums from what i observed was that it could match or exceed BOTW, few thought it would fall short by 10 million.
 
Luminoth9090 said:
Tears of the Kingdom out of the Switch top 10 in Zelda's strongest market and below much older titles like Smash, the legs of this game are very poor compared to BOTW. The inflated 70$ price are hurting it's legs.
Click to expand...
I think the game failed to leave an impact after its (super strong) launch due to the sameyness with BOTW. You don't hear much buzz around it these days versus BOTW at the same time
 
Luminoth9090 said:
It's easy to say that now but before it was released many people were hyping up the sales potential of TOTK. The general consensus on forums from what i observed was that it could match or exceed BOTW, few thought it would fall short by 10 million.
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Not me! You can probably find posts from me on this forum saying the opposite. :p

The history of sales of iterative sequels on the same Nintendo console is pretty clear, especially if the first game was a mega seller (Mario Galaxy > Galaxy 2 being one of the more obvious ones). Even after the first quarter when I was saying it was obviously frontloaded, people were arguing that it was too soon to tell. Some folks just let their hype get in the way of realistic predictions, tale old as time.
 
Ricimer said:
I think the game failed to leave an impact after its (super strong) launch due to the sameyness with BOTW. You don't hear much buzz around it these days versus BOTW at the same time
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Botw was a completely new formula for Zelda and came years after not knowing a single thing about it. Of course it would have a biggest impact.
 
Mekanos said:
Not me! You can probably find posts from me on this forum saying the opposite. :p

The history of sales of iterative sequels on the same Nintendo console is pretty clear, especially if the first game was a mega seller (Mario Galaxy > Galaxy 2 being one of the more obvious ones). Even after the first quarter when I was saying it was obviously frontloaded, people were arguing that it was too soon to tell. Some folks just let their hype get in the way of realistic predictions, tale old as time.
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Yeah people got really hyped by its initial sales. Considering the current pace of Switch software sales and how Splatoon 3 and Scarlet/Violet are getting near to their predecessor I understand that it seemed possible for Zelda too.

My main reason for being skeptical was that the game seemed to be made for a specific group in mind. People who loved BOTW sandbox aspect.
If you loved the exploration, the feeling of being thrown in a world that you'll discover by yourself it never felt the game was targeted to you.
This combined with a presentation that clashed with a more epic story and had this mod/hack vibes(like fusing a rock to a stick).
I feel it's more difficult to market a more serious narrative in the same game you're surfing on top a piece of meat.

With all that said this same sandbox focus seems like a perfect reasonable bet Zelda team made to surpass BOTW sales. If they were lucky enough it would attract sandbox fans out of Zelda bubble. If not it would still be the second best selling Zelda game.
 
Luminoth9090 said:
It's easy to say that now but before it was released many people were hyping up the sales potential of TOTK. The general consensus on forums from what i observed was that it could match or exceed BOTW, few thought it would fall short by 10 million.
Click to expand...
I mean, yeah, but people say a lot of silly things on the Internet. Forums can develop into an echo chamber where people think that because they can't stop thinking about TOTK that everyone can't stop thinking about TOTK. The fact of the matter is that it is 1.) an iterative sequel 2.) released on the same platform as its predecessor that 3.) reuses the map and some elements of the structure of BOTW.

Also, BOTW got to that number after years and years of being the game that people would recommend to new Switch buyers. TOTK did not have that luxury.
 
Luminoth9090 said:
It's easy to say that now but before it was released many people were hyping up the sales potential of TOTK. The general consensus on forums from what i observed was that it could match or exceed BOTW, few thought it would fall short by 10 million.
Click to expand...

Anyone who thought that TOTK would outdo BOTW in terms of sales couldn't have been thinking about how sales trends actually ever go at all
 
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