Jeff Grubb is still sure that it will launch before the holidays and has doubled down on that. Other credible sources, however, are not so sure about the announcement and release time frame, even though everyone agrees that it exists and believes that it is in a launchable or nearly launchable state. That's not necessarily doubting Grubb's info - it might just mean that other sources have not been able to collaborate his source for the doubling down or that people believe that the initial announcement/launch plan has shifted. That might possibly be due to marketing synergy with MP4, but Nintendo could also just shift plans about to cover gaps and delays (cf. Xenoblade Chronicles 3).
MP1R will come eventually and probably soon, but I wouldn't bank on it this year. My prediction personally, since we didn't see it in the last Direct, is that we'll see it in the February Direct, for a H1 '23 release.