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Discussion What do you think the first year of Switch 2 will look like

What is the launch title of the Switch 2

  • New 3D Mario

    Votes: 213 73.4%

  • Metroid Prime 4

    Votes: 57 19.7%

  • Princess Peach, obvi

    Votes: 1 0.3%

  • New IP

    Votes: 6 2.1%

  • Zelda Remake

    Votes: 4 1.4%

  • Something Else, Explain Below

    Votes: 9 3.1%
  • Total voters
    290
Neoxon said:
But that’s the problem, those are the people who will buy a Switch 2 at launch regardless. And as mentioned already, said people would amount to…

Nintendo doesn’t need to rope enthusiasts in, but rather the masses. And as established already, said audience doesn’t really care about Metroid.
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The masses won't get reeled in until the Holidays (assuming Redrakted NG launches H1). Those inevitable shortages and migration period will ensure that.
 
Neoxon said:
But that’s the problem, those are the people who will buy a Switch 2 at launch regardless. And as mentioned already, said people would amount to…

Nintendo doesn’t need to rope enthusiasts in, but rather the masses. And as established already, said audience doesn’t really care about Metroid.
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I don't agree your first point is necessarily true, and not saying it should be the only launch title.

But it might bring in a million or so sales, that would not otherwise have bought one near launch.
 
Hermii said:
I don't agree your first point is necessarily true, and not saying it should be the only launch title.

But it might bring in a million or so sales, that would not otherwise have bought one near launch.
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With all due respect, I highly doubt that there are a million people who would buy a Switch 2 JUST for Metroid that wouldn't have bought one anyways. That's a huge percentage of the franchise's audience.
 
If May Release: Metroid Prime launch, 3d Mario October

If Oct Release: 3D Mario launch, Metroid November
 
The Nintendo Switch killer app is Breath of the Wild. The popular online perception of the Legend of Zelda franchise prior to that entry was that this was a franchise in decline since it did not have the similar sales figures of more popular franchises like Mario or Pokemon.

Sales expectations for Prime 4 should be tempered against the franchise's prior sales history, but we shouldn't consider that history to be a hard limit on how Prime 4 will perform.
 
InsaneZero said:
The Nintendo Switch killer app is Breath of the Wild. The popular online perception of the Legend of Zelda franchise prior to that entry was that this was a franchise in decline since it did not have the similar sales figures of more popular franchises like Mario or Pokemon.

Sales expectations for Prime 4 should be tempered against the franchise's prior sales history, but we shouldn't consider that history to be a hard limit on how Prime 4 will perform.
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considering there's only a 600,000 difference in sales from skyward sword to Metroid Dread I agree hard
 
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D36 said:
The masses won't get reeled in until the Holidays (assuming Redrakted NG launches H1). Those inevitable shortages and migration period will ensure that.
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But they were reeled in for BotW, which is the kind of success Nintendo is likely wanting to replicate. You can’t really do that with smaller franchises like Metroid or Fire Emblem. And yes, they are comparable in that both carry some level of prestige, but ultimately don’t bring in the big numbers like Mario/Zelda/Pokémon/Animal Crossing/Splatoon.

SpaceGodzilla said:
i want Prime 4 to be the only first-party launch game now just to spite the people saying Prime 4 can't be a major launch title for the switch 2
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My point is that MP4 wouldn’t be able to replicate the same success as BotW considering the current state of the Metroid franchise in terms of sales. And considering how conservative Nintendo is with regards to sales expectations, I think they know that.

It also doesn’t help that Metroid is a franchise that Japan couldn’t give any less of a fuck about, which makes the situation even worse.
 
Assuming it launches in the back half of 2024, 3D Mario at launch sounds plausible to me. Other than that in the first year I expect:
  • Mario Party
  • Mario Kart X around the holidays
  • Pokemon Legends Kyurem/Gen V remakes
  • Luigi's Mansion
  • Xenoblade
  • Zelda of some flavour (wouldn't be surprised if it was a new top-down one)
Animal Crossing is a big maybe towards the end of it's first year imo, the bulk of the AC/Splatoon team wouldn't be working on DLC for Splatoon 3, so I think early 2025 for their next game could make sense.
 
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I wonder if fans overstate the way that Nintendo thinks primarily in terms of franchises. This franchise is successful, and can launch a system. This one isn't. I don't think Nintendo would have tried to launch a console with Skyward Sword, but they did with BotW. I bet with BotW they knew they had a real hit on their hands.

The same is true of Metroid Prime 4, but that sword cuts both ways. For MP4 to be a launch title, it would have to be seen as accessible enough to a wider audience that it might piss off some conservative fans. So that's the MP4 launch scenario I can envision. A game that's different enough from it's predecessors to attract a wider audience.
 
Neoxon said:
My point is that MP4 wouldn’t be able to replicate the same success as BotW considering the current state of the Metroid franchise in terms of sales. And considering how conservative Nintendo is with regards to sales expectations, I think they know that.

It also doesn’t help that Metroid is a franchise that Japan couldn’t give any less of a fuck about, which makes the situation even worse.
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1. it's my opinion so i don't care about sales data or whatever, I want it to be the sole day 1 first-party launch game now

2. by your logic Nintendo should have had Mario Odyssey be the Switch launch game since Mario always sold significantly more than Zelda till BOTW
 
tender said:
Prime 4 will be split gen, 100%, Nintendo feels shame if they announced it for Switch 1 and don't live up to that.
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Companies don't operate on emotions, they operate on financial incentives. Nintendo is in fact a real company operated by real people who are paid real money for their real work hours, and they haven't survived for 100+ years through making decisions that doesn't pass the obvious cost-benefit analysis.

Prime 4 was planned, announced, and produced as a Switch title. Changing requirements during development incurs tangible costs since it takes time (paid work hours) to change plans, and changing the target hardware is a drastic change that would also incur proportional costs. There's also the sunk cost of existing work that went into making Prime 4 work on Switch, and the opportunity cost of drastically lowering the sales potential by abandoning the much larger established Switch audience in favor of a inherently smaller Switch 2 audience.

You need to have a really strong argument to convince the people with financial spreadsheets that the benefit of making Prime 4 an exclusive Switch 2 title outweigh all of these costs of doing so, and the only plausible argument that I can think of would be that production is such a comprehensive trash fire in which the most significant aspect of the original plan (being a Switch title) was doomed to failure regardless of who was working on the project.
 
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InsaneZero said:
Companies don't operate on emotions, they operate on financial incentives. Nintendo is in fact a real company operated by real people who are paid real money for their real work hours, and they haven't survived for 100+ years through making decisions that doesn't pass the obvious cost-benefit analysis.

Prime 4 was planned, announced, and produced as a Switch title. Changing requirements during development incurs tangible costs since it takes time (paid work hours) to change plans, and changing the target hardware is a drastic change that would also incur proportional costs. There's also the sunk cost of existing work that went into making Prime 4 work on Switch, and the opportunity cost of drastically lowering the sales potential by abandoning the much larger established Switch audience in favor of a inherently smaller Switch 2 audience.

You need to have a really strong argument to convince the people with financial spreadsheets that the benefit of making Prime 4 an exclusive Switch 2 title outweigh all of these costs of doing so, and the only plausible argument that I can think of would be that production is such a comprehensive trash fire in which the most significant aspect of the original plan (being a Switch title) was doomed to failure regardless of who was working on the project.
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A really long way to say you agree with me!
 
tender said:
A really long way to say you agree with me!
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100%. I like making explanations based on business realities since it's often overlooked during discussions about what Nintendo might do.
 
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Hi everyone!
I'm new here.
This is what I expect during 2024:

MAY
New 3D Mario
EPD4 Next Game (Gimmick demo)
Street Fighter 6 (Capcom should present at least one game at launch. Due to its history with the 3DS, I think this is the one and possibly the only fighting game ready for launch).
Red Dead Redemption 2 (Not sure if they will release the Switch 1 version first but since T2 already worked for a long time on both versions I don't see them waiting any longer after Switch NG Launch.
Final Fantasy VII Remake (Rumor)

JUNE
New Camelot Game (Not sure if exclusive or for both Switch 1/2)
Fire Emblem Remake (Switch 1/2)

JULY
Paper Mario TTYD (Switch 1/2)

AUGUST
Astral Chain 2 (Possibly Nintendo will discard the Switch 1 version and it will be exclusive but without highlighting much in the graphic aspect).
Hal Laboratory Next Game (Small release ala Kirby Fighters or Buffet).

SEPTEMBER
Metroid Prime 4 (Switch 1/2, September 6, 2024)
EA FC25 (Finally a REAL full version)
New Monster Hunter (Last week of September, will be presented in March - 20th year anniversary event / SW2/PS5/XSX)

OCTOBER
New Mario Kart (Once they release the 3D Mario this will be the main focus, yep sorry MP4)
ND Cube Team 2 Next Game (Not a Mario Party)
GTA V (After skipping the Switch OG, this version will come to take advantage of the first end of the year window and accumulate good sales over the course of the Switch NG's lifetime. 2024 may have GTA VI but whether it is delayed to 2025 or not, Switch 2 will be skipped at least for release).
Mass Effect Legendary Edition (Same for EA who should take advantage of the first year on the console)
Resident Evil (2 Remake or VII or both BUT It would be smarter if they separate remakes and last duology over the months until the release of IX by Fall 2025).

NOVEMBER
New Pokemon Remakes by ILCA (New Legends will take longer and we already know that new main games come every 3 years).
Metaphor: ReFantazio (Possibly present at the Switch 2 event in March)
Professor Layton and the New World of Steam
Call of Duty 2024

Of course there will be more the first months.

Also I think the launch of Switch NG could be in the 2nd half of the year but Nintendo can do a better control of stock issues if they launch it earlier to get prepared for its first end of the year.
 
I hope theres a Pilotwings at launch because every Pilotwings game has been a launch title so this is our one chance. Everything else can wait.
 
I have zero idea why people are suggesting remakes/remasters (except for the truly huge stuff like pokemon) being crossgen for the switch 2. That kind of thing takes up resources and its not like the switch release didn't have a huge list of actual games (BoTW, Mario odyssey, X2, ARMS), something that is likely to be the same for the upcoming switch 2.

Unless what you're referring to is say, backward compatibility but it's not exactly the same thing.
 
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I think we’ll see both new 3D Mario and Metroid Prime 4 to headline it, backed by a ton of ports of PS4 games.
 
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Here's My hypothetical Switch 2 Launch.

First Party/EPD

  • Metroid Prime 4
  • New IP
  • Pack-in title (ala Astro's Playroom)

Third-party/Indies

  • The next Assassin's Creed
  • NBA 2K25
  • Call of Duty
  • Final Fantasy VII Remake
  • Exclusive from Bandai Namco
  • Exclusive from an Indie
 
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John Omaha said:
The PS3 was overpriced for a console and sold very poorly in its first two years on the market, yet many third parties stuck around and willed it to success.
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The PS3 actually had pretty poor third party support initially. Many games were either exclusive to 360/PC, or came out after other versions. It only got decent support later once Sony cleaned up its act and offered better dev tools for Cell.
 
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Year 1:
  • Mario3D
  • MK10
  • Ganondorf game
  • Prime 4
  • DK2D
  • Mario Party
  • New IP gimmick
  • New IP MS

Year 2:
  • LM4
  • Pokemon 10Gen
  • Zelda 2D
  • Astral Chain 2
  • FE
 
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At this point probably both 3D Mario and Prime 4. Would be cool to see a smaller Zelda title, too.
With the success of Switch I hope Nintendo understands that they can rest on the successor as long as they need so there won't be a Gamecube/Wii U situation.
 
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SpaceGodzilla said:
1. it's my opinion so i don't care about sales data or whatever, I want it to be the sole day 1 first-party launch game now

2. by your logic Nintendo should have had Mario Odyssey be the Switch launch game since Mario always sold significantly more than Zelda till BOTW
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  1. Fair enough
  2. Zelda at least came close to the 10 million mark before with TP, whereas Metroid’s current peak is just over 3 million. And with Japan not giving a shit about Metroid, crossing the 10 million barrier will be even harder.
 
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SpaceGodzilla said:
1. it's my opinion so i don't care about sales data or whatever, I want it to be the sole day 1 first-party launch game now
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You can want that on a personal level of course, but you also have to understand the reality that a weak start can and very likely will have consequences for the entire consoles life. The 3DS had a really sluggish start, only getting its first real big new games from Nintendo at the tail end of the first year with Mario 3D Land and Mario Kart 7. By that point, a lot of the third party support that was there had already dried up because of how slow the console was to get going. Companies that were initially there like Ubisoft , EA, Capcom, scaled back support or dropped it outright , and Nintendo's extremely lucky that Atlus and such decided to hang around.

Starting out with Metroid prime and nothing else is a bad thing because it will straight harm confidence in the platform. And if it's anything like the other prime games, the small (for a game supposed to carry a launch) number of people who are invested in the franchise will blow through it in a weekend and then shrug their shoulders.

I'm not really a huge fan of Marios platformers, 2D or 3D, thinking they've got some real significant weaknesses compared to the games I do prefer in the genres; nonetheless, I still also think it's the right choice to lead the launch with since 3D Zelda isn't a realistic option.
 
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yall really wild if your are convinced if switch 2 only had prime 4 for first party support on day 1 the switch 2 would end up some kinda of 3DS launch/ wii u disaster.
plus I'm only talking about the first party, with how good the third-party support for Switch turned out I'm convinced that Switch 2 will also launch with a major 3rd party game that could appeal more to the Japanese audience

also my opinion stems from the fact i;m team spring/summer 2024 for switch 2 and expects the 3D Mario to be the big holiday title
 
SpaceGodzilla said:
yall really wild if your are convinced if switch 2 only had prime 4 for first party support on day 1 the switch 2 would end up some kinda of 3DS launch/ wii u disaster.
plus I'm only talking about the first party, with how good the third-party support for Switch turned out I'm convinced that Switch 2 will also launch with a major 3rd party game that could appeal more to the Japanese audience

also my opinion stems from the fact i;m team spring/summer 2024 for switch 2 and expects the 3D Mario to be the big holiday title
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The 3DS had several major first party games in the launch months; Street fighter, Resident Evil, Dead or Alive, Sonic, Layton, Rayman, just off the top of my head. It doesn't matter, because those are all franchises that disappeared or vastly scaled back efforts on the platform in response to the first year. Nintendo need to be there rolling out the red carpet and then the third parties will follow. Even Sony, who actually have the practical guarantee of third party support, wouldn't do that, and in fact, didn't, publishing 4 different titles day 1 for the Ps5, so Nintendo definitely wouldn't want to bet the farm on a niche title.

So yes, starting out with just a short prime game, which if it's anything like the previous ones will be maybe 15 hours long, and so that will be beaten by the majority that would be in for buying a console + prime game, before the launch weekend is over and then dropped is the textbook definition of a terrible starting position for a console. The only "really wild" line of thought is denying that that is a fact.
 
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On the topic of whether Nintendo would want to release too many Mario games together, here are the Mario games and spinoffs released each year in Switch's life so far:

2017
Switch:
Mario Kart 8 Deluxe
Mario + Rabbids Kingdom Battle
Super Mario Odyssey
3DS:
Mario & Luigi: Superstar Saga
Mario Party: The Top 100
Mario Sports Superstars
Poochy & Yoshi's Wooly World

2018
Switch:
Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze
Mario Tennis Aces
Captain Toad: Treasure Tracker
Super Mario Party
Super Smash Bros Ultimate
3DS:
Luigi's Mansion
Mario & Luigi: Bowser's Inside Story
Captain Toad: Treasure Tracker
WarioWare Gold

2019
Switch:
New Super Mario Bros U Deluxe
Yoshi's Crafted World
Super Mario Maker 2
Luigi's Mansion 3

2020
Switch:
Paper Mario: The Origami King
Super Mario 3D All-Stars
Mario Kart Live: Home Circuit

2021
Switch:
Super Mario 3D World + Bowser's Fury
Mario Golf: Super Rush
WarioWare: Get It Together!
Mario Party Superstars

2022
Switch:
Mario Strikers: Battle League
Mario + Rabbids: Sparks of Hope

2023
Switch:
Super Mario Bros Wonder
Wario Ware: Move It!
Super Mario RPG

2024 (Announced so far)
Switch:
Princess Peach: Showtime!
Luigi's Mansion 2
Mario Vs Donkey Kong
Paper Mario: The Thousand Year Door

Nintendo could easily release a 3D Mario (and even a new Mario Kart) next year without it being particularly busy for Mario games by their standards. During the 3DS/Switch cross-gen period you can see Nintendo went pretty heavy on Mario games, so it wouldn't be out of character for them to do the same here.

Edit: Realised I'd forgotten the Paper Mario remake, so I've added it in.
 
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Linkstrikesback said:
So yes, starting out with just a short prime game, which if it's anything like the previous ones will be maybe 15 hours long, and so that will be beaten by the majority that would be in for buying a console + prime game, before the launch weekend is over and then dropped is the textbook definition of a terrible starting position for a console. The only "really wild" line of thought is denying that that is a fact.
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Call me Mr wild then, because that is in fact, not a fact, the ps5 must have had an awful launch then since their big launch title could be beaten in 5-10 hours (miles morales) OH wait it was there most successful launch for a Playstation console despite there biggest title being a crossgen glorified expansion.

The switch 2 could launch with no first party games for the first week and still probably end up being there biggest console launch just from the switch brand name and good will they amassed this gen
 
SpaceGodzilla said:
Call me Mr wild then, because that is in fact, not a fact, the ps5 must have had an awful launch then since their big launch title could be beaten in 5-10 hours (miles morales) OH wait it was there most successful launch for a Playstation console despite there biggest title being a crossgen glorified expansion.

The switch 2 could launch with no first party games for the first week and still probably end up being there biggest console launch just from the switch brand name and good will they amassed this gen
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Spider-Man is also one of the biggest brands out there, whereas Metroid isn’t. That’s not to say there isn’t a place for MP4 in the line-up, but it doesn’t have the mainstream pull to be THE main launch title.

But hey, that’s perfectly fine. It can back up 3D Mario so all bases are covered on Day 1. This way Metroid can continue to build itself up.
 
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Samuspet said:
Wind Waker & Twilight Princess
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look, I am 99.99999% confident that these two will not release at the same time and will never be bundled together.

they really don’t make sense together — the only tie is that they’re Zelda games. it’s not a double-pack situation!

I do think we may actually see an Ocarina of Time Remaster / Remake now, though. i’ve constantly doubted it, but the timing plus the supposed system angle seems like it could suit it. something of a reach, though.
 
I hope third party support ends up being extra cool, and that Switch ports get a boost. it’d be cool if a lot of those “amazing but could be slightly more” ports got boosted framerates / performance just by virtue of the system architecture
 
I'm worried the delayed release/port strategy will continue from third parties, and the next switch is gonna downward spiral the gaas/live service/free toilet.

I'm worried full physical release (lol) on a cart is over.
 
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Third Party Predictions:
  • Elden Ring will be a big deal
  • Final Fantasy VII Remake, Rebirth
  • A new 3D Rayman?!
  • yeah yeah yeah it’s GTAV
and more…

I’m also really hoping every Dark Souls game + Sekiro shows up for fun. But I wouldn’t immediately assume that.
 
Suswave said:
Third Party Predictions:
  • Elden Ring will be a big deal
  • Final Fantasy VII Remake, Rebirth
  • A new 3D Rayman?!
  • yeah yeah yeah it’s GTAV
and more…

I’m also really hoping every Dark Souls game + Sekiro shows up for fun. But I wouldn’t immediately assume that.
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I've seen several folks suggest Elden Ring will get released on the new console, but is there a source of this idea (beyond the belief that it'll be powerful enough to run it)? I think that'd be an amazing 3rd party game to feature and FromSoft could expand their sales reach, they just haven't seemed to be that interested in Nintendo platforms.
 
Please do not resort to insults or condescension when disagreeing with others. -mariodk18, Irene, Josh5890
SpaceGodzilla said:
Call me Mr wild then, because that is in fact, not a fact, the ps5 must have had an awful launch then since their big launch title could be beaten in 5-10 hours (miles morales) OH wait it was there most successful launch for a Playstation console despite there biggest title being a crossgen glorified expansion.

The switch 2 could launch with no first party games for the first week and still probably end up being there biggest console launch just from the switch brand name and good will they amassed this gen
Click to expand...

They literally released a massive RPG (Demon souls), a full remaster of Spiderman 1, a little big planet/sackboy game as well as astro bot. Alongside miles morales as their launch titles.

But you knew this when you cropped that out of the quote. Such a childish way of trying to to desperately be right. Bye, shan't miss your nonsense.
 
Nintendo knows what a fantastic launch looks like
Nintendo also knows what a catastrophic launch looks like

When you compare the Switch launch to the Wii U, there is one thing abundantly clear....they learned their lesson from the Wii U. They made sure the Switch did not see release until Breath of the Wild was ready for Day 1, with Mario Kart and Odyssey coming shorty afterwards.

Nintendo will never again put themselves in a position where they launch without atleast one sales behemoth to push units out Day 1. 3D Mario can do that. Mario Kart can do that. Zelda can do that. Pokemon can do that.
Metroid, by itself, can not.

Metroid can certianly launch with the system, or in the launch window, but it will be alongside something that will push 10-15+ millions by itself.

I feel like a lot of the takes of I've seen on Switch 2 launching without a strong seller are founded on the principal that Nintendo will magically forget their previous successful and failure of launches and not do everything in their power to push those units, having already learned what does and does not do so.
 
Me when I have to remind people that Metroid is a bad franchise and can't even sell 4 Pikmillion units

spongebob-how-many-times-do-we-need-to-teach-you.gif
 
Shinespark said:
I've seen several folks suggest Elden Ring will get released on the new console, but is there a source of this idea (beyond the belief that it'll be powerful enough to run it)? I think that'd be an amazing 3rd party game to feature and FromSoft could expand their sales reach, they just haven't seemed to be that interested in Nintendo platforms.
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it’s just a feeling

like I feel like it could be the same kind of relevant “look what we can do” win as Skyrim and Dark Souls Remaster on the original Switch were

the timing feels right, and it seems like the kind of thing they’d want. imagine how many segments you can get excited with the usual Nintendo fare plus Elden Ring and Final Fantasy VII Remake / Rebirth
 
Metroid Prime 4, Mariokart Next and a new Donkey Kong Game. Mark my words, I am never wrong.
 
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