• Hey everyone, staff have documented a list of banned content and subject matter that we feel are not consistent with site values, and don't make sense to host discussion of on Famiboards. This list (and the relevant reasoning per item) is viewable here.

News Will the pandemic be over soon?

Chaotic Neutral

Chain Chomp
Founder
Pronouns
He/Him
Interesting developments regarding the pandemic have been emerging over the weekend. According to Hans Kluge, the World Health Organisation's Regional Director for Europe, the Omicron variant could very well move the Covid-19 pandemic into its end stages. The WHO now projects that Omicron could have infected 60% of Europeans by March, "there will be for for quite some weeks and months a global immunity, either thanks to the vaccine or because people have immunity due to the infection, and also lowering seasonality." In this projection, Covid-19 will be back next winter but not necessarily as "the pandemic" any more. Nevertheless, he still cautions that it's too early to consider Covid-19 endemic, as the virus has not behaved in the expected manner and new variants could still emerge.

Omicron is now the dominant variant in the EU and the EEA, according to the ECDC. Thierry Breton, the European Commissioner for Internal Markets, said on French television that it is possible for vaccine producers to adapt existing vaccines to any new variants that may emerge, especially the mRNA ones.

Indeed, many EU/EEA countries have started to lift restrictions or are planning to do so in the near future, especially in the Northern half of the continent. The Irish government has decided to remove most of its Covid rules, excepting some minor ones such as mask-wearing in public closed spaces and the Covid passport, as "the rate of infection [is] falling and all other key indicators used to monitor Covid [are] going in the right direction". The Faroe Islands have decided to lift restrictions in three stages until February 28th, stating that the healthcare system is no longer under duress and that Covid is now a disease that we can live and deal with like other "regular" diseases. Neighbouring country Iceland's Minister of Health stated this morning that a plan to lift restrictions in steps will be proposed this week, citing that the healthcare system is now capable of handling the disease as the average hospitalisation length has decreased, hospitalisation rate for the infected has fallen dramatically, and the infected are recovering quicker. Similarly, the UK has been working on ending all plan B Covid restrictions in the next three months - although there doubts have been raised by the unions, the NHS, and public health representatives as the UK still has significant disruption in their school and healthcare systems, although the Labour opposition's leadership has stated that it will support the government's decision if the data backs it up.

This is an encouraging continuation of growing optimism by global healthcare professionals, with the WHO's Director General stating last December that 2022 would mark the end of the pandemic. He said "we know the virus very well and we have all the tools", going on to say that WHO projections show that vaccine supplies should be sufficient to vaccinate the entire global adult population and to give boosters to high-risk populations by the first quarter of 2022. The big challenge now was to implement the resources effectively and with global equity.

With public immunity and/or resistance looming, the priority across Europe now seems to be to lift restrictions as long as the local healthcare systems can handle the infection rates and general severity. Around the world, USA's renowned scientist Anthony Fauci, while cautioning against over-confidence, recently said that the sharp decrease in case numbers in areas of the USA may signal a turnaround for the region. Similarly, the WHO Regional Office for Africa said last week that cases of Covid have plummeted in the region and deaths are declining for the first time since the Omicron outbreak's peak.

What does Fami think? Are we finally seeing the light at the end of the tunnel? Or maybe just in the more privileged regions of the world? And if so, how can we help ensure equity in global resource distribution? How are things looking in your home region - similar to the areas cited in the articles above or is the story completely different?​
 
That depends a ton on what you mean by "over".

Practically, it's going to be yearly vaccine injections for massive swathes of the population or a very significant amount of deaths every single year forever. It still is one of the primary reasons for ICU occupancy in many nations. As should be abundantly clear by now, any immunity gained to COVID is short lived (no, there isn't a meaningful difference in immunity between that gained by vaccination or the hard way), and that's not going to change.

And in general, things like mask wearing when you're showing cold-like symptoms or worse should just be regular behaviour and it's kinda horrifically negligent that so many western countries didn't learn anything from the east where mask wearing is the norm when ill. No chance I'm stopping that, at any rate.

What does Fami think? Are we finally seeing the light at the end of the tunnel? Or maybe just in the more privileged regions of the world? And if so, how can we help ensure equity in global resource distribution? How are things looking in your home region - similar to the areas cited in the articles above or is the story completely different?

This, however, is definitely a "privileged regions" thing. COVID killed more people in 2021 than 2020 and it was showing no signs of slowing as the year went on. The average worldwide daily deaths in December 2021 were still absurdly high.
 
At least for the US, it was essentially over when the NFL changed their rules so they didn't have to cancel games. Canceling NBA games was what caused Americans to take covid seriously in the first place.
 
0
low-effort reply, but:




I can't imagine considering the pandemic to be over (edit: in the US) until infections are low enough that elective surgeries can take place (edit: again, in the US)

At the very least, there's no end in sight in the United States.
 
And in general, things like mask wearing when you're showing cold-like symptoms or worse should just be regular behaviour and it's kinda horrifically negligent that so many western countries didn't learn anything from the east where mask wearing is the norm when ill. No chance I'm stopping that, at any rate.
Several people I know have gotten covid recently, admitted it was horrific for their family, yet continued refusing to wear masks afterwards. Even when affected by it they still prefer to dig their heels in over the "political" shit because it's part of their personality and culture. At this point I sincerely assume I'm gonna be regularly masking up in public for years.
 
0
low-effort reply, but:




I can't imagine considering the pandemic to be over (edit: in the US) until infections are low enough that elective surgeries can take place (edit: again, in the US)

At the very least, there's no end in sight in the United States.

Have elective surgeries been canceled? I haven't heard about anything like that since early 2020.
 
For the government and heath workers? No
For regular people and businesses? Yeah, it did already back in November.

90% of the population is expected to be double vaccinated here in Costa Rica in a month or so a lot of people dont care anymore, other than using a mask in closed spaces.
 
0
I'm still going to be careful. I've gotten my booster shot and will continue to wear a mask. Over? No. Endemic with deadly Fall spikes? Yes. But it feels like the folks that are doing what they are supposed to do (vaccinated/masked/etc) are just gonna have to carry the rest.
 
0
No, the pandemic won't be "over" soon. I personally know way more people who got Covid in the last few months than the past 2 years combined. Medical facilities are still heavily burdened. Business logistics are still heavily impacted. Sure, concerts are back but the pandemic is not over. And there's always a good chance of another major strain developing. It's exhausting.
 
No, the pandemic won't be "over" soon. I personally know way more people who got Covid in the last few months than the past 2 years combined. Medical facilities are still heavily burdened. Business logistics are still heavily impacted. Sure, concerts are back but the pandemic is not over. And there's always a good chance of another major strain developing. It's exhausting.
Yyyeeeeepp. Friends of mine work at the local hospital, they're full. People are being turned away from the ER due to being at capacity. One of my dad's friends had to come back into town to run his daughter's business for a couple weeks because literally the entire company came down with covid (no masks or precautions were ever observed at the company, and they would make fun of people who took precautions), and an appointment my dad and I had with a different local business just this morning was postponed because the owner and his whole family came down with covid. I've also heard it said (from people in a position to know) that nearly half our local police force, including dispatchers and other support staff, are all out with covid.

But yeah, concerts and other entertainment events around here are still going strong, nobody masking or distancing, and they're advertising that you don't have to, like it's a perk of the event. Everything is fuckin collapsing but people have decided to just pretend it's all over and everything is back to normal. It's insane.
 
Having all the vaccines and doing all the precautions, I still lost my grandma (was more like my mom really) during this December and my sister and aunt got infected as well (although just mild symptoms). My grandma was 89 years old and sick from other diseases, but still COVID came to accelerate her death and suffering to 200%.

The pandemic hit me and my people the hardest during 2021. Having said that, here in Mexico, although we are having record breaking days of confirmed infections it's a far cry from January 2021 in which you could see people doing lines on the street to refill their oxygen tanks, medicine out of stock or overflowed hospitals.

In that sense, yes, I do agree that maybe we are entering the final stage of the pandemic, I hope that's true. Personally, I will act as if the pandemic continues way after they officially confirm it's over. I need to keep positive in order to avoid despair.
 
Right now Omicron is fucking shit up at record rates in my city, so no.
 
0
California has been getting 100,000 new cases for days and hospitals are overwhelmed. Maybe it’s over in parts of Europe that took it seriously and acted to protect their populations, but it isn’t over in the US at all. More and more of my extended family and friends have been getting it :( Since it doesn’t look like we are changing course on any policies, like closing schools, and instead we just keep trying to ignore it, I’d be shocked if it ended in six months.
 
0
Just to clarify, the OP was meant to point out that the pandemic as such might be changing into an endemic state, not that Covid was going to go away or would suddenly turn harmless.

However, posting this interesting and relevant article that was published in Nature yesterday about hypothetical endemicity:


It is interesting to think about how the world can react to inevitable endemicity in a way to maximise quality of life within the new normal. Integrated healthcare policy and vaccine equity are stressed in the article, but I'm particularly thinking if it's necessary that, after the experience from the last two years, governments stop thinking in short-term measures and constantly changing reactions and start working on more effective permanent plans: both general regulations for increased public health and (scientifically defined) predetermined interventions to deal with virus outbreaks (Covid or other possible pandemics) according to what parameters apply at a given time. Viral outbreaks can of course not be predicted but I think knowing which developments result in which public health reactions and restrictions will help us to adapt to the changes. But of course, mutations make it difficult to create a catch-all plan. But, as per the article, they can be mitigated:

"First, we must set aside lazy optimism. Second, we must be realistic about the likely levels of death, disability and sickness. Targets set for reduction should consider that circulating virus risks giving rise to new variants. Third, we must use — globally — the formidable weapons available: effective vaccines, antiviral medications, diagnostic tests and a better understanding of how to stop an airborne virus through mask wearing, distancing, and air ventilation and filtration. Fourth, we must invest in vaccines that protect against a broader range of variants. The best way to prevent more, more-dangerous or more-transmissible variants from emerging is to stop unconstrained spread, and that requires many integrated public-health interventions, including, crucially, vaccine equity."​
 
0
I don't think it'll be over that soon, there's still a lot of people that have never been infected, although vaccines should help lower the effects on those people.

In any case, in many countries around the world it's clear that both authorities and tons of people want to act like it's over since everyone's just tired of it. Media already reflects this with a lot of articles about how the pandemic is going to end "soon".

I just hope the probabilities of yet another rebound are low.
 
0
Have elective surgeries been canceled? I haven't heard about anything like that since early 2020.
My procedures were elective last year iirc, but was able to get them done. I just needed to get covid tested beforehand, and if I was vaxxed I could skip that part.
 
0
No. I do think it'll be over, eventually, somehow, though, in years time. I guess there needs to be more effective vaccines for things like omicron + high vaccination rates on a global scale with mandates. That could take a long time but I do think eventually something will happen.
 
Have elective surgeries been canceled? I haven't heard about anything like that since early 2020.
Yes, but it ebs and flows. Stuff was on again in between the OG and Delta when cases calmed down. You just had to get Covid tested before your procedure.

Then Delta caused a spike and if the hospital was over run cases got cut back or stopped. Then Omicron hit and the same happened.

Come say March or April or even now depending upon where you life and if the wave is still cresting or falling electives will start again.
 
No because countries are going to relax restrictions too quickly (ie: masks should now just be a way of life, not a situational restriction) etc... and lead to new waves, especially with slow booster uptake. So while "living with COVID" means blindly pretending it doesn't exist and trying to live the same as previously, the virus will continue to spread, mutate and kill people. As the Nature article posted above got at, we are currently in the stage of "lazy optimism" which probably means we wont be out of this for a while and every so often we will have rolling deadly waves of covid
 
Yes. As an Irishman it's definitely over as a pandemic here and it would take something extreme to make it become a thing again.

We did everything correct - some of the highest vaccination rates in the world, and a government led by a doctor who in no way bowed to business interests at all. Some of the strictest lockdowns in Europe, heavily enforced by police, and I think we were the only EU nation to have like 16 months of unbroken restrictions (of varying severity).

Despite all that, when Omicron hit we were totally defenseless. It blazed through the country, and one point NPHET (our covid health body) estimated that 500,000 had it over two weeks - that's 10% of the population in two weeks. When hospital numbers and ICU numbers still went down two weeks after that huge wave, it was clear that we could no longer pretend that Omicron was severe enough to justify restrictions and removal of restrictions was fast-tracked. If the health system doesn't need to be protected from being overrun and the people are vaccinated, then at that stage it's time for governments to let people decide their own risk tolerances.

The unpopular opinion is that there was never much defense to Covid and most countries did all they could. The gap between doing everything right and doing it almost all wrong wasn't, in the end, the huge delta some make it out to be. This was a natural disaster and all we could do was mitigate it.
 
I guess it depends on where you live. In industrialised nations with reasonable health infrastructures? I think so. Pandemics are a numbers game, and once they're low enough it stops being a pandemic.
The damage to the economy, trust in democratic institutions and the community will last for decades though.
 
0
They're lifting the remaining restrictions here in the next 10 days. I really hope this works out. My main concern is, if there is a setback (e.g. a new, deadlier mutation) that it will be harder to return to them for the general populace. Only time will tell, I suppose.
 
0
On the one hand, the number of new coronavirus infections has reached a level where a lockdown would have been unequivocally declared last year. On the other hand, hope for the end of the pandemic is growing stronger, and discussions about lifting the restrictions are getting tougher. So please don't wait for the pandemic to end; the virus will live among us. We need to protect ourselves as much as possible. I, for example, buy sanitizers, a mask, and gloves every month at https://72hours.ca/collections/n95-mask because there is a very good price if you buy packs.
 
Last edited:
0


Back
Top Bottom