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Predictions Will Mario Kart 9/10 Be The Biggest First Party Game Launch Ever?

Depends on when it launches. I don't think it will beat Tears of the Kingdom's speed to 20 million but it was well surpass those sales in the end.
 
I've heard people argue that MK isn't a system seller before, and I'm not entirely certain how they can make that claim after seeing the attach rate of 8DX.

Monstrous.
 
In terms of hype, it won't. Mario Kart is amazing, but its new installments don't have the novelty and cutting-edge factor new entries from franchises like Mario and Zelda do.
 
I don't think so; it'll do big launch numbers for sure, but Mario Kart's a game that reaches GTA levels of sales over time rather than right out of the gate

I'm also assuming it'll be a fairly early Switch 2 exclusive, and I just don't think the install base will be there versus, say, the Switch 1 install base by the time TotK came out
 
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The successor's small (but growing) install base in 2025 will limit it at launch. It'll have much longer legs than any MK game other than MK8D though.
 
I expect it to launch early in the successor's life as an exclusive to that system, and so the launch figures will reflect whatever the install base is at that time. So essentially, no, I think it'll be big for that point in the successor's life but not a record launch.
 
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Mario Kart isn't an immediate attention grabber, but it's an accessible game who's success is tied strongly to the console it releases on. And it sells over time.
 
Nah, I think Switch 2 and all game releases will see a decrease across the board. It won't be much of a decrease though. Like 10%-20%?

It's unrealistic to think they will see growth. It's like never happened.
 
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Probably not. If the next Mario Kart is coming out in the first year of the Switch 2's lifespan, the install base likely won't be large enough to support the "biggest launch ever".
 
Switch 2 install base by late 2025 won't be able to make it outsell the 20m for first quarter that Pokémon Scarlet and Violet did. I don't think it's gonna be able to reach 30m in less than a year like Animal Crossing New Horizons did either.
The thing with early gen releases is that they'll reach higher numbers by becoming evergreens instead of being front loaded like late gen games are.
Breath of the Wild got to sell 31m copies, but Super Mario Odyssey was the one that set the tone for real big first quarter sales when it shifted 9 million copies that holiday season. Then it just got crazier and crazier with Smash, Pokémon Sw/Sh, Animal Crossing and finally Scarlet and Violet and Tears of the Kingdom.

Mario Kart Next is definitely gonna be the biggest first party release ever, but for it to be the biggest launch quarter or launch weekend it depends more on where Switch 2 will be when it releases than on the game itself. It'll definitely sell faster than 8 Deluxe and with it being a holiday release with 3D Mario as the launch title, it'll take its place and instantly become the best selling Switch 2 title with its launch quarter like Odyssey did. But it'll probably be something like 12-15 million.

But who knows!! I'm fairly certain Mario Kart will sell in like 2:1 rates with the number of consoles sold in its launch quarter, it really depends on how big the launch quarter for Switch 2 will be, how it'll sell through the summer and if Nintendo is able to afford a 10m units first holiday quarter supply.
 
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Scrawnton said:
Depends on when it launches. I don't think it will beat Tears of the Kingdom's speed to 20 million but it was well surpass those sales in the end.
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Right. Year 1 it would need over 100% attach rate to match that.
VintoWin said:
Nah, I think Switch 2 and all game releases will see a decrease across the board. It won't be much of a decrease though. Like 10%-20%?

It's unrealistic to think they will see growth. It's like never happened.
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What's never happened?
 
JoshuaJSlone said:
Right. Year 1 it would need over 100% attach rate to match that.

What's never happened?
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Growth. Every generation goes down except for 2 spikes, one being WII (attributed to lightning in a bottle, casual blue ocean approach) one being Switch (massive popularity due to merging handheld and console lines, form factor).... It's doubtful that Switch 2 will reach 100% of the numbers that Switch 1 reached.
 
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I don't think it's fair to say either growth or decline are a natural state of affairs. Add a new major competitor to the market? Going to be harder to keep up with what you did before. Competitor makes a turkey? Chance for you to grow. Have a major exclusive feature? Chance for you to grow, if people care. So far it seems like the biggest change this time around is that Nintendo will be starting out from a position of strength rather than the relative weakness of WiiU+3DS. Neither Sony or MS seem like they're eating up more of the market than before.
 
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I don’t think so. Mario Kart’s success comes from its absurd longevity as an evergreen title, not so much as a smash hit instant seller.

It’ll be the best selling game of the next generation, but I doubt it has the best launch.
 
If they don't mess it up, yeah it'll be huge. But will def be more of a long term seller than frontloaded ala Tears of the Kingdom.
Hope we see what the game is soon though, gotta know what the "hook" is gonna be.
 
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Asking for 10 million sales in a weekend of a sub-15 million install base isn't realistic
 
Probably not. MK8DX reached 3,54 millions in its first quarter. As the others said, it will depend of the install base. I could see the Switch 2 launching in early 2025 with 3D Mario and MK10 releasing for holiday 2025, or even H1 2026. By releasing at thend end of the first year, I think it could reach around 7/8 millions (7,33 millions for MK8DX in the same time) with maybe 15 millions of Switch 2 sold.
 
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Idk just feels like videogames hit a certain high around 130-150 mil and will never reach like 200 mil. The industry doesn't grow beyond that ceiling it just fluctuates.

I seriously doubt Switch 2 will hit Switch 1 numbers. It'll be close though. It's just natural to assume that not everyone that bought a Switch will be buying a Switch 2. Natural dropoff.
 
Given the legs of 8, I don't know if it'll necessarily sell tens of millions in a few months or anything, that almost seems more dependant on the next console and what it released on, but I bet it winds up surpassing every other Nintendo game on that platform by the time a sequel is being discussed. If not most other first party games.

I could see the next animal crossing pushing towards that territory, too. They seem like two of the most closely associated titles when anyone brings up the Switch.
 
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Biggest launch? No. Ludicrous attach rate and adding sales constantly over the best part of the following decade? yes.
 
POST THE CHART


mario_kart_pie_chart.jpg
 
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VintoWin said:
Idk just feels like videogames hit a certain high around 130-150 mil and will never reach like 200 mil. The industry doesn't grow beyond that ceiling it just fluctuates.

I seriously doubt Switch 2 will hit Switch 1 numbers. It'll be close though. It's just natural to assume that not everyone that bought a Switch will be buying a Switch 2. Natural dropoff.
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It'll be like PS2 to PS3 where the install base is huge, but not like the previous console. (PS2 160 Mil and PS3 87 Mil)

Like if the Switch 2 has good marketing and the selling point is clear that it's a huge upgrade, then i can see it reaching PS4 numbers, but... We might never know, since the landscape is always changing.
 
Nah, Mario Kart is huge not just because it does crazy numbers at launch but more because when a new game releases it never stops selling. Ever. Mario Kart 8 Deluxe is still selling as if it was a new game and not a 7 year old port of a Wii U game.

Kinda like GTA now that I think about it.
 
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it’s going to be the first game to make over a Bowzillion dollars in revenue, just like how The Super Mario Bros Movie became the first film to reach that number.
the secret is that it’ll be a cross-gen release on both Switch consoles, like Mario Kart 8 and the Wii U.
 
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VintoWin said:
It's just natural to assume that not everyone that bought a Switch will be buying a Switch 2
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Wording it differently, Switch 2 will have an uphill battle in trying to sell as much as its predecessor, which is currently the third best selling console of all time, and still in the running for taking first place
 
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It’s been a long time since a new Mario kart for the hardcore people, since 8’om the Wii I, a decade agai.

Deluxe never got the same hype cycle cause it’s a port but 8 was absolutely hyped and the next one will blow that hype out of the water
 
I think not knowing what MK 9 would be like none of us realistically can answer that question.
More to the point is probably given the legs Mk8 dx had on switch and firstly on wiiu. What would prevent it being?

Some people forget that MK 8 came out on wiiu first! Then download came. Then the switch!
I for one think if Nintendo can make such a huge game different like the way they did with Tears anything is possible.
 
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The thing with Mariokart is that it has a far wider appeal than any other Nintendo Game. It’s a casual game, but unlike Marioparty it‘s also interesting for Coreplayers.

It has a strong "everyone can play a round" local Multiplayer appeal because most people regardless of age immediately understand what the goal of the game is. The Online Multiplayer is also appealing for Casual Players because it has the "Everyone on their own" principle, when you fuck up it dosen‘t affect any other player, which many people I know are afraid of. You don‘t have to be good to play Mariokart online and have fun, which isn‘t true for many Games, even from Nintendo.

Also unlike with some other of their major Multiplayer titles, Nintendo can make Online look more smooth and immersive because thanks to the type of Gameplay you don‘t have constantly players on the screen. Visual Glitches don’t matter as much. That‘s a major advantage, because it makes Online a main Selling Point.

Then there is the whole nostalgic thing and that everybody knows Mariokart. Everyone has played it once (maybe even more People than GTA5 and Minecraft)

So yeah. Unless Nintendo fucks up the next MK in a major way, there is no world in where it isn’t the best selling game of the next console.
 
If it's a cross gen game with Switch 1, then there's a slight chance. If it's Switch 2 exclusive, not a chance. The installbase just won't be there
 
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