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Predictions When do you think Nintendo will acknowledge and reveal its next System? (Deadline 4th Jan)

Pick your poison:

  • Acknowledge Codename: Q1 (January, February, and March)

    Votes: 50 20.1%

  • Acknowledge Codename: Q2 (April, May, and June)

    Votes: 29 11.6%

  • Acknowledge Codename: Q3 (July, August, and September)

    Votes: 18 7.2%

  • Acknowledge Codename: Q4 (October, November, and December)

    Votes: 23 9.2%

  • Acknowledge Codename: 2024 or Beyond

    Votes: 30 12.0%

  • Reveal: Q1 (January, February, and March)

    Votes: 69 27.7%

  • Reveal: Q2 (April, May, and June)

    Votes: 25 10.0%

  • Reveal: Q3 (July, August, and September)

    Votes: 13 5.2%

  • Reveal: Q4 (October, November, and December)

    Votes: 28 11.2%

  • Reveal: 2024 or Beyond

    Votes: 79 31.7%
  • Total voters
    249
  • Poll closed .
My money's on a late 2023 reveal for a spring 2024 release, like how the Switch was revealed in late 2016 and released in March 2017.
 
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Why do people think they will leave an entire holiday between announcement and release? That would completely Switch kill holiday sales for that year. Yeah they did it to the Wii U, it'd be one thing if system sales basically crater by then, but Switch actually sells well so... I just can't see modern Nintendo with their super tight marketing cycles shooting themselves in the foot like that
 
Lord Azrael said:
Why do people think they will leave an entire holiday between announcement and release? That would completely Switch kill holiday sales for that year. Yeah they did it to the Wii U, it'd be one thing if system sales basically crater by then, but Switch actually sells well so... I just can't see modern Nintendo with their super tight marketing cycles shooting themselves in the foot like that
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Probably because they did that for the Switch. Sales problem avoided if Switch 2 is the Switch Pro as well.
 
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I'm on the side that Zelda ToTK actually will be released with the new system.

They already did this with the Wii, and then the switch.

It did wonders for them. It is a great system seller.
 
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So are people generally more on the 2023 side or the 2024 side? Seems more like 2023 so far

Edit: I'm dumb and didn't realize there was a poll!
 
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I think it’s farther off than anyone wants to admit. They’re going to have strong holiday 2022 sales, a Mario movie in April, and a likely GOTY in May. And that’s just the announced stuff. Plenty of momentum for 2023.

They’ll milk the Switch for at least another year. They’ll wait for that momentum to die down, then reveal new hardware. No rush for Nintendo. They’ve got money in the bank and always leave us wanting more.
 
I'm feeling optimistic. I'm hoping to see a reveal by February and a release alongside Tears of the Kingdom. It's how the Switch was introduced and launched. Alternatively, Nintendo could be waiting until the last DLC for Xenoblade 3 and Mario Kart 8 Deluxe is out before moving on, in which case I would expect the Switch's successor will be released around the end of 2023.
 
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Nintendo just earlier this year reiterated that the Switch is still in the middle phase of its life. They are not bluffing.

MK8, Splatoon 3, Pokemon SV and XC3 will get content until the end of 2023. Tears of the Kingdom is coming out May, 2023 which Nintendo will surely expect to move considerable hardware throughout 2023 (plus the unannounced holiday game). Most importantly, the OLED version only came out a little over a year ago.

I considered March, 2024 as the earliest option a few years ago before Nate and Bloomberg were sure new hardware was coming out in 2021 and I buckled because they are the most trustworthy sources. Now that nothing has happend and a mid-gen refresh may have been cancelled, early 2024 at the earliest seems even more like the most sensible scenario.

If it is really true that a mid-gen refresh has been cancelled, you can be 100% sure that it isn't coming out next year. People suddenly expect the next Nintendo console to come out faster as a result, but that's not how it works. Development of a new console takes a lot of time and there is no way to fast track that much at all. Couple that with the fact that the Switch is still selling well and you're dreaming if you are expecting any announcment next year.
 
Another thing to keep in mind is the possibility TOTK will also get DLC. If they actually follow the same time frames the DLC for BOTW took, them stretching out it's release to early 2024 wouldn't be out of the question.
 
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I'm all in, baby. Being revealed Q1 next year and launching with TotK!

Didn't Nintendo say this year they were concerned about the transition to a new system? I can't think of a more surefire way to transition to a new system than to have it launch with TotK with a Pikmin 4 (cross gen) in the chamber right after.

If it doesn't release with TotK, it's not coming until holiday 2024 at the earliest. Still, I see no point in NOT releasing it alongside a mainline Zelda game; there has to be a reason why TotK has been consistently delayed other than Covid dev delays. To me it's more like system manufacturing delays. I'm of the mind that TotK has probably been done for around a year and they're just sitting on it polishing it waiting for the new system, just like BotW.
 
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I'm inclined to believe that unless there is a big dip in sales for Switch the time between reveal and release won't be massive so as not to cannabalise sales. I'm not au fait with the chip shortage situ but that surely will also influence any decisions on release timing.

Could we see another premium refresh before 2.0?

I see no rush with the big slate of first party games padding out the calendar along with evergreen titles. Why not squeeze every penny out of perfectly serviceable tech instead of releasing a system that can only play the same games but a bit better (a la PS5/XSX-S). No doubt work has begun on "next gen" titles but they are likely to be well off as dev teams crunch for ToTK and Metroid and others.

I'm Team 2025 and it's not even on the poll.
 
I don’t know what Nintendo will do to be honest. They are the most unpredictable gaming company that exists. The appeal of the switch is being able to play games on the tv or in handheld is simple yet so addictive. The switch 2 or whatever it will be will come down to software. That’s what made the switch so popular the software. Them getting games like Rocketleague and Fortnite put the switch over the top. Partnering with Nvidia was a Godsend and the best decision Nintendo has made in a long long time. Switch 2 should just be the OLED with a higher resolution screen, better battery, the most modern chip they can get from Nvidia, don’t skip on RAM and work on joy con drift. I would rather Nintendo try their best to make a complete system. I feel the biggest hurdle will be storage vs modern game sizes. No matter the specs of the next switch if the software particularly 3rd party isn’t there I won’t purchase it. The steamdeck literally exist because Nintendo doesn’t have access to a lot of third party games.
 
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If a new system is indeed slated for 2023, maybe even 2024, I think it's likely we'll hear some confirmation about its existence - whether it be a code name or just talk of new hardware - by April latest (I voted for Q1, since I'm betting on the annual investor meeting revealing some information about it) and a reveal earliest at around the time E3 usually takes place, so mid-June, latest in Q3, similar to how the Switch was revealed in October and launched in March. Actual release will be by 2024 - probably not as massive as we got with the Switch, but if Nintendo just makes a better Switch with B/C and all, not having a stacked launch year will probably not hurt it too much.
 
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Skies said:
That's a good point.

But I think Nintendo will eventually need to acknowledge the successor to confirm backwards compatibility ahead of the blowout, just to keep people buying software for the OG Switch. In fact, the codename might just be Switch 2 or New Switch to really get this across.

To further expand on that point, I don't think they will announce the successor during or near the holiday season for a Q1 launch. That was okay with WiiU, considering how dead that console was. But OG Switch should still be selling well, and Nintendo will not want to cannibalize its largest months of the year with Switch 2 hype.
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They can both acknowledge the successor & confirm backwards compatibility when the system is announced. I’m not seeing many tangible benefits to getting out ahead early with a code name.
 
I think they will reveal in 2024.
Close to what they did with the Switch.

the_marmolade said:
  • No sneaky remarks from "insiders" about the poll results or leading into believing a certain timeframe.
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I doubt even Nintendo Marketing knows for sure, let alone insiders.
 
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Tentacle-tropes said:
They can both acknowledge the successor & confirm backwards compatibility when the system is announced. I’m not seeing many tangible benefits to getting out ahead early with a code name.
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True, but that depends on the timing.

If Nintendo drags this out another 12 months or more, hardware sales will obviously continue on a downward path. But, more importantly, software sales and maybe even subs will start to drop as well. Eventually Nintendo is going to have to reassure investors that plans are in place and they are moving towards a smooth transition to new hardware that carries over software and services from the OG Switch. So the drop would theoretically only be temporary.

It's a similar reason we heard of 3DS and NX from Nintendo themselves before their official reveals.

Anyways, that is where I am coming from. But hopefully Nintendo doesn't drag their feet and goes with your approach. It would be much efficient, and better for us consumers as well.
 
Skies said:
True, but that depends on the timing.

If Nintendo drags this out another 12 months or more, hardware sales will obviously continue on a downward path. But, more importantly, software sales and maybe even subs will start to drop as well. Eventually Nintendo is going to have to reassure investors that plans are in place and they are moving towards a smooth transition to new hardware that carries over software and services from the OG Switch. So the drop would theoretically only be temporary.

It's a similar reason we heard of 3DS and NX from Nintendo themselves before their official reveals.

Anyways, that is where I am coming from. But hopefully Nintendo doesn't drag their feet and goes with your approach. It would be much efficient, and better for us consumers as well.
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In order for this to be remotely similar Switch numbers everywhere would need to be free falling off a cliff. I don’t foresee this happening 12+ months from now. As too the bolded Nintendo has been reassuring investors anytime they have asked about bc. So, saying you have plans is basically what we have now in terms of corporate speak.

I’m not seeing anything tangibly beneficial for why Nintendo should prematurely reveal a code name & their bc plans ahead of their reveal. Nor do I see how doing so would be efficient or beneficial for consumers. The only thing that I can see it doing is stopping people who are both impatient &/or the “Nintendo gonna Nintendo” crowd for bc.
 
Tentacle-tropes said:
In order for this to be remotely similar Switch numbers everywhere would need to be free falling off a cliff. I don’t foresee this happening 12+ months from now. As too the bolded Nintendo has been reassuring investors anytime they have asked about bc. So, saying you have plans is basically what we have now in terms of corporate speak.

I’m not seeing anything tangibly beneficial for why Nintendo should prematurely reveal a code name & their bc plans ahead of their reveal. Nor do I see how doing so would be efficient or beneficial for consumers. The only thing that I can see it doing is stopping people who are both impatient &/or the “Nintendo gonna Nintendo” crowd for bc.
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One of the reasons BC is seriously in question is because news media ran with a quote from Miyamoto from a recent investors meeting. He gave a pretty cagey answer that could be interpreted many ways. As always.

For example, IGN has an article saying BC won't be a focus for Nintendo when creating new hardware. It will absolutely have to be addressed with a definite answer at some point. For both consumers and investors it will continue to be asked until it is confirmed that BC will be in place. All I'm saying is that this will be done when official speak starts about their next generation hardware. There is precedent for this type of thing being done at an investor meeting.

And it would be benefical to consumers because there is a slight doubt that our software (both physical and digital) will carry over to the next piece of hardware. It is most definitely a factor when making a purchase this late in a console cycle.
 
I can see a succesor coming out in early 2024. I feel a similar situation like with the Nintendo Switch could happen where we get an announcement trailer in Q3 and release in Q4/Q1
 
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Skies said:
One of the reasons BC is seriously in question is because news media ran with a quote from Miyamoto from a recent investors meeting. He gave a pretty cagey answer that could be interpreted many ways. As always.

For example, IGN has an article saying BC won't be a focus for Nintendo when creating new hardware. It will absolutely have to be addressed with a definite answer at some point. For both consumers and investors it will continue to be asked until it is confirmed that BC will be in place. All I'm saying is that this will be done when official speak starts about their next generation hardware. There is precedent for this type of thing being done at an investor meeting.

And it would be benefical to consumers because there is a slight doubt that our software (both physical and digital) will carry over to the next piece of hardware. It is most definitely a factor when making a purchase this late in a console cycle.
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We are basing that bc is in question due to news media misinterpreting a quote from Nintendo. That really does not seem like evidence to me & more a failing of news media. Miyamoto’s answer is pretty straight forward unless you really wanna reach & interpret it in a very specific way.

Nintendo will address it when they are ready to address it. They have given answers to the tune of ‘yes this is important to us’; if IGN & others fail to comprehend that over the last five years then that’s on them. I don’t really think there is precedent when there is extenuating circumstances to both examples you provided.

So essentially no benefit then. The amount of people closely following this story, fearmongering no bc, &/or factoring it in are negligible in my eyes currently. This to me really isn’t a reason to announce before the official announcement.
 
Tentacle-tropes said:
We are basing that bc is in question due to news media misinterpreting a quote from Nintendo. That really does not seem like evidence to me & more a failing of news media. Miyamoto’s answer is pretty straight forward unless you really wanna reach & interpret it in a very specific way.

Nintendo will address it when they are ready to address it. They have given answers to the tune of ‘yes this is important to us’; if IGN & others fail to comprehend that over the last five years then that’s on them. I don’t really think there is precedent when there is extenuating circumstances to both examples you provided.

So essentially no benefit then. The amount of people closely following this story, fearmongering no bc, &/or factoring it in are negligible in my eyes currently. This to me really isn’t a reason to announce before the official announcement.
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Sorry we are not going to see eye to eye on this one. Media and public perception are huge for publically traded companies. These aren't extenuating circumstances when there is countless amounts of previous examples of companies (including Nintendo) having to come out and confirm/deconfirm misreported information to consumers. Switch Pro is a prime and recent example of that.

The rest is subjective and we will just have to see how it plays out. Just to reinstate, I don't disagree with your opinion on what will happen. I just disagree that other options are not possible.
 
Skies said:
Sorry we are not going to see eye to eye on this one. Media and public perception are huge for publically traded companies. These aren't extenuating circumstances when there is countless amounts of previous examples of companies (including Nintendo) having to come out and confirm/deconfirm misreported information to consumers. Switch Pro is a prime and recent example of that.

The rest is subjective and we will just have to see how it plays out. Just to reinstate, I don't disagree with your opinion on what will happen. I just disagree that other options are not possible.
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Media & public perception are huge when reaching beyond enthusiasts. We very much are talking about enthusiasts here when you mention an IGN article as your evidence. Your two similar reasons are very much extenuating circumstances:
  • 3DS to bolster something after Wii & DS we’re slumping in sales
  • NX in response to jumping into mobile & the absolute disaster that was the WiiU
Neither of these circumstances are currently in play nor will they for quite awhile. And, it is indeed media’s fault for putting out articles that would necessitate Nintendo having to respond. Just take a look at the fiasco with Mochizuki & their report about OLED netting more money.

It really isn’t that subjective unless you just wanna ignore it. Your other options don’t really provide compelling reasons & is just there to assuage a subsect of certain consumers. The same ones who currently can’t think of a good reason why Nintendo is not gonna add bc except for “Nintendo gonna Nintendo.” So your right we aren’t gonna see eye to eye.
 
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AranPrime said:
The fact that the Mario Kart DLC extends towards all of 2023 let's you know there's no way there releasing Switch 2 next year. That shit is 2024 and will launch with Mario Kart X.
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there's no way in hell there going to release a new mario kart so soon after the dlc
 
My money is on an announcement in January 2024 and a release in March 2024.
 
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Probably around Summer 2024 for full reveal and maybe an off comment about the system existing during the latter part of 2023.
 
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the_marmolade said:
How are we holding up with the recent Zelda OLED?
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Well I would like to change my vote, which I can't lol

I think I said earlier my reveal likelihood percentages were 35/15/15/5/30 for Q1/Q2/Q3/Q4/beyond, respectively. To be honest I kinda made those numbers up, so these revised ones are not only based on the recent leak but also in general reworked:

Q1: 5% (the leak isn't a slam dunk against, but it's pretty close IMO)
Q2: 5% (E3 reveal; pretty unlikely)
Q3: 14% (if it comes out next year, it's very likely to be announced in July)
Q4: 1% (not a serious possibility, they wouldn't cannibalize their holidays sales)
2024 and beyond: 75% (the default and most likely option at this point)
 
Reveal November, release Q1. Just guessing based on what happened with Switch. At this point there's no evidence, everyone is only speculating.
 
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