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Discussion Is there any possible Switch 2 launch title that isn't the next 3D Mario?

Steve said:
I wonder if she regretted buying those Wii U.
she could have scalped from any other company, but chose the Wii U.
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Unlikely since the only consequence she'd have faced is being laughed at in a mostly harmless way on the internet and having to spend some time returning the consoles to the stores she got them from before the return periods were up. She almost certainly only lost a bit of time and no meaningful money, given she was able to buy a bunch of them upfront at launch, likely not a huge issue
 
I’m seriously expecting Animal Crossing to show up much sooner this generation than is the norm. That team hasn’t been heard from since the DLC. So I don’t think a launch window or first year appearance isn’t out of the question.

Whether that counts as casual and hardcore appeal I don’t know. But with sales ranging from 10-40 million I don’t think it matters.
 
BowserIsMyFather said:
I think it's going to be Metroid Prime 4, and I believe - in some way - it's going to surprise the living hell out of everyone.
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i would personally think, having prime 4 and the next 3D Mario launch close together, would be a neat idea, since it’ll be able to satisfy two different audiences, one for a fun adventure, meanwhile the other one being a gritty and dark first person shooter.

For example.

March-3D mario
April-Metroid prime 4, cross gen.
May- New ip

Remaining year would be mysterious, since the switch pretty much had a new Nintendo game releasing, almost every months.

Also I’m personally, wondering, which will be the big holiday game for 2025, because it can either be Pokémon ZA or Mario kart X
 
It's going to be Wave Race: Calm after the Storm with ray traced water surfaces and waves accurately generated based on dynamic weather conditions and an accurate ebb and flow model based on the time of day.
 
Most 3D Mario games have not been launch titles, they've been early releases, but not at launch. The last one was what, Mario 64 DS, 20 years ago?

EDIT: Figured I should probably state my guesses for possible launch titles. If there's some wacky hardware stuff beyond just "more powerful Switch" I don't think Nintendo will be keeping the 1-2 Switch brand around. I could see there being another WarioWare launch title like Smooth Moves or Game & Wario for some party games, and they usually like to release those every few years. Animal Crossing and Mario Kart definitely feel like obvious early heavy hitters, Mario Kart especially. They'll probably do some big marketing for that as the first brand new console Mario Kart game in over a decade.
 
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TL;DR: Mario Kart or New IP are both possible, but I'd put them way down the list.

Prior assumptions:
Nintendo will develop the key launch title internally.
Nintendo will want a title that plays well in the West and in Japan
Next hardware is basically a Switch, doesn't need a Wii Sports style title.
Nintendo originally planned on launching this game in the holiday, before delays pushed to next year.

Studios that just aren't candidates at all:
NDCube, NST, NERD, 1-Up studios: all support studios, not really candidates.
EPD 1, 2, 6, 7, 11: Works primarily with external developers.

Studios that aren't really ready for new games:
Monolithsoft: Usually, 5 years between major games. It's too soon
EPD 3: The Legend of Zelda team. Tapped out.
EPD 10: 2D Mario, Pikmin. 2 games with lengthy development processes published last year. They're tapped out.

Unlikely for specific reasons:
Retro: MP4 is their comeback project, and the logistics of developing a launch title in Texas are very un-Nintendo.
NLG: Luigi's Mansion 4 is a dark horse title, since 3 did very well, and the original game was a GameCube launch title. But unlikely Nintendo planned 2 Luigi's Mansion games this year, even if Nintendo were willing to trust a recently purchased Western studio with the gig.

Remaining candidates in depth:
EPD 4: Smaller titles, made Switch Sports and 1-2 Switch.
These folks could make a game next year, they're pretty prolific. They own the legacy of the Wii Sports games, they made a Switch launch title. If there is a second launch title, the "casual" title, it's this team. But I don't think that's what OP was asking about

EPD 5: Nintendoland, Animal Crossing, Splatoon.
Honestly, this team should probably go in the "tapped out" list but it's just barely conceivable they could have something not-Splatoon this year. I don't think Animal Crossing is the right title to launch with, and Nintendo seems to like to let new IPs "bake", but it's not impossible this team delivers something.

EPD 8: Mario team, no major development since Odyssey, well over-due for a new title.
There is a reason everyone assumes 3D Mario. This is the team who have clearly been working on something for a while, and 3D Mario has been the least active of Nintendo's major franchises. Even the folks who don't think 3D Mario is the launch title assume it will come out in the launch year.

EPD 9: Nintendogs, ARMS, Mario Kart.
This team has been responsible for both the handheld and the TV versions of Mario Kart, before the Switch unified the hardware. If you slot in Mario Kart Tour as the "handheld MK we would have gotten" then they are just about due for a new game. If there is a Big EPD title in the first year that isn't 3D Mario, it's this team.
 
(Hit enter too soon, last part of post)

TL;DR - if it's not 3D Mario, I think 3D Mario Kart, or a new IP, with everything else being extremely unlikely.

What games could come out of these studios that aren't 3D Mario:

Mario Kart Next: My assumption is that Nintendo was targeting Holiday 2024 before they slipped. I fully believe Nintendo wants Mario Kart on the system early days. I doubt Nintendo wanted to launch the next game on the year anniversary of the last game's final DLC.

Animal Crossing: Been a while since we saw the last one. It also sold crazy numbers, and was heavily criticized for its post-launch support. I think that's a recipe for "Nintendo will let it bake till it's really ready".

New Party IP: I think this is fully possible to come from EPD 4, and a maybe from EPD 5. I don't think this is an "instead of" title, but an "in addition to".

New "Core Gamer" IP: I think EPD 9 might be given another shot at a non-Mario Kart game. EPD 5 pulled Splatoon out of nowhere, maybe they've got a new wild idea. But I don't think Nintendo builds their launch around an unknown IP - it's much safer for the IP and for Nintendo to make a game like this the second big game on the system.

Star Fox/Donkey Kong/Nintendogs/Punch-Out: IPs that aren't new, but were once major to Nintendo and have sat mostly fallow this generation. I think a new DK game is a given, and a new Star Fox is not, and Nintendogs gets a "spiritual successor" rather than a true follow up. If any of these games are in development with one of these aforementioned studios, then I think Nintendo would need to see these games and think they're really special before risking it.

Kirby/Yoshi/File Emblem/Mario Sports: Franchises that have reliable external partners and are reliable sellers, but aren't console defining games. Nintendo isn't going to in-source these back to EPD, and in the case of Kirby, they don't entirely own the IP so they can't.

Smash: Massive seller, Nintendo absolutely would bring Sakurai in to direct an EPD team, but has a stable place at Namco. Sakurai seems to have started work, but I don't think the timing is right for a launch game. Ultimate sold huge, Sakurai isn't ready to let the franchise go, Nintendo doesn't want him to go - I think they'd rather get Smash a little later in the console's life, and firmly establish a studio that can handle Smash without Sakurai going forward, than risk pushing Sakurai out now.
 
Yes, first 3D Donkey Kong together with DK movie. This DK on both:
donkey-kong.large.jpg
 
Irene said:
I’m going to predict the launch lineup of the successor.

1. Metroid Prime 4 (cross-gen)
2. New 3D Mario
3. Experimental EPD4 title
4. Smaller Kirby game
5. Fire Emblem 4 remake

Somehow I feel like adding Mario Kart and/or DK on top of 3D Mario and Prime 4 is a little of a too good to be true situation.
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We're so far out from a MK game that's on a console (epd9 has not done much other than put out old courses) and Nintendo knows the importance of putting out a solid list of games for their new console. Other than the egragious bit about the FE4 remake (there's really no incentive to put out a remake from an old game which does nothing to drive new consoles), there isn't too much off from that.
 
ILikeFeet said:
by that point people would be expecting the successor to Tears of the Kingdom. OoT should be a co-developed title, I think. like OoT 3D was
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anyone expecting the next brand new 3D Zelda to happen during the first half of the Switch 2's life are in for disappointment
 
SpaceGodzilla said:
anyone expecting the next brand new 3D Zelda to happen during the first half of the Switch 2's life are in for disappointment
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TotK was content complete by 2022. The Switch 2 will launch sometime in 2025 and it’ll have the same (or perhaps longer) lifecycle as the Switch, meaning that the first half will end in 2029/2030. That’ll mark close to 7 years after TotK released and 8 since it was content complete. If they can’t get it out before then, then they gotta fix something in their pipeline
 
SpaceGodzilla said:
That feels like something they would announce year 1 of the switch 2 but not actually release until year 3 or 4
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I don't think it'll be that late.

A remake is a safe bet for testing new hardware imo. It wouldn't surprise if it was one of the early projects they started on when working with new engines and exploring the capabilities of the system.
 
Sin & Punishment said:
I don't think it'll be that late.

A remake is a safe bet for testing new hardware imo. It wouldn't surprise if it was one of the early projects they started on when working with new engines and exploring the capabilities of the system.
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Even if they did want to start out testing with an older game ported to the new hardware, they'd only do BOTW or TOTK in the first place.

Any remastering or remaking of any of the pre-BOTW 3D zelda games is only going to happen by outsourcing, whether that's to Grezzo, Tantalus, or someone else.
 
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I could see Mario Kart being there at launch while 3D Mario gets saved for the Holidays. Rounding up launch I could see Metroid Prime 4 (Cross-Gen), new Donkey Kong, and a smaller eShop title, like Snipperclips.
 
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Unlike a lot of folks, I don't actually see Metroid Prime 4 being cross-gen. That game has been vaporware long enough that I wouldn't be surprised if they scrapped and rebooted development again for a newer console. I refuse to believe that game is even in development, let alone for the Switch.
 
SpaceGodzilla said:
anyone expecting the next brand new 3D Zelda to happen during the first half of the Switch 2's life are in for disappointment
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something tells me, Nintendo will release the next Legend of Zelda game next or after the live-action Legend of Zelda movie debut on cinema
 
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Edie Napier said:
Unlike a lot of folks, I don't actually see Metroid Prime 4 being cross-gen. That game has been vaporware long enough that I wouldn't be surprised if they scrapped and rebooted development again for a newer console. I refuse to believe that game is even in development, let alone for the Switch.
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Wasn't there a QA Tester who had on his resume that he's been doing QA on Prime 4?

Wouldn't make much sense if the game wasn't in development lol.
 
Well the last home console Nintendo launched with a 3D Mario was 28 years ago so yeah it's possible.
Though people expect next 3D Mario to be the BotW of Switch 2 and it makes a lot of sense
 
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They can have Mario Kart as the launch title if they think 3D Mario is better as the first big holiday title of the console(like Odyssey was).

3D Mario can have a bigger spotlight in media with it being a critically acclaimed marvel like no other(except Zelda) and it can dominate the news for awhile so I think it'll be that, with Mario Kart as the megaton holiday.

Well, I don't think having Metroid Prime 4 as the cross gen release title alongside a casual next gen exclusive (that's actually good like Ring Fit Adventure) with Mario Kart the next month and 3D Mario on the holiday season will be a disaster either and Nintendo can do that.

I just think 3D Mario is the one that makes the most sense because it brings the best of all worlds being a technical showcase + beloved by core gamers + beloved by families + beloved by kids + beloved by casuals + 95+ MC + system selling monster + sales monster.
 
I can't wait to see what EPD 4 does. Because whatever the big day one game is, it's very likely that there will also be an EPD 4 game, and I think they've suffered enough with Bojack Horseman to try something really different.
 
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I think 3D Mario just makes the most sense. I love Donkey Kong but I'm not sure that franchise would be the main launch title unless it's a 3D one. Come 2025 it will have been 8 years since the last 3D Mario. Zelda just got a new game in 2023, Mario Kart just finished a lengthy dlc. Metroid Prime 4 is likely going to be cross-gen.
 
The 0.1% of realities where it launches with a Mario or Zelda-sized project that's a totally new IP get something pretty exciting.
 
I could see a new Mario Kart and then 3D Mario in the Holiday period, but in reality, I believe we're getting a new 3D Mario with the launch of Switch 2. Along with Pokémon Legends ZA at launch or very close to launch, along with a few smaller titles. I could see a new Mario Kart, Animal Crossing, mainline Pokémon, Metroid Prime 4 all by the end of 2026.

Would LOVE to see a new Waverace at launch also or close to launch.
 
Triistan said:
Hoping for a bold move: Metroid Prime 4 as launch title (+ a party game).

Mario 3D could arrive a month later, let Samus alone under the spotlight.
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They're presumably not trying to tank the console.

Even ignoring the complete lack of mainstream appeal, Metroid prime is a terrible game to lead a console launch with because, if nothing else, most of the games in the metroid series as a whole are maybe around ten hours at best. Prime 1 and 3 have hltb times of about 13 hours. The absolute worst thing you can have as a console maker launching a new piece of hardware is to have your premier launch title beaten in maybe a weekend by most and then them shrugging their shoulders and asking what else there is to play and the answer being "wait a month".

It'll have to be something like mario odyssey or BOTW that can easily take several times that to clear once for a typical player.

Metroid prime is better suited for several months after launch in some otherwise slow month (if they don't just release it as a switch 1 game beforehand, which it still absolutely will be made available on)
 
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Linkstrikesback said:
They're presumably not trying to tank the console.

Even ignoring the complete lack of mainstream appeal, Metroid prime is a terrible game to lead a console launch with because, if nothing else, most of the games in the metroid series as a whole are maybe around ten hours at best. Prime 1 and 3 have hltb times of about 13 hours. The absolute worst thing you can have as a console maker launching a new piece of hardware is to have your premier launch title beaten in maybe a weekend by most and then them shrugging their shoulders and asking what else there is to play and the answer being "wait a month".

It'll have to be something like mario odyssey or BOTW that can easily take several times that to clear once for a typical player.

Metroid prime is better suited for several months after launch in some otherwise slow month (if they don't just release it as a switch 1 game beforehand, which it still absolutely will be made available on)
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ILikeFeet said:
they're gonna need something that's much more sellable than Metroid Prime 4
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I could have agreed for the Wii U successor. Switch 2 will be sold out for months regardless imho and as I said Mario could arrive in the second month.

Series X launched without exclusive and has been sold out for a year ~ (and MS wasn’t strong as Nintendo now).
 
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Edie Napier said:
Unlike a lot of folks, I don't actually see Metroid Prime 4 being cross-gen. That game has been vaporware long enough that I wouldn't be surprised if they scrapped and rebooted development again for a newer console. I refuse to believe that game is even in development, let alone for the Switch.
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That's got like 0% chance of happening. Retro has been hiring for a number of positions ever since the reboot announcement, there's a handful of people with Metroid Prime 4 in their linked INS and there's QA testing and all being made for the game. The most credible leaks we've ever had from Retro that were confirmed when Metroid Prime Remastered came out even claimed it was targeting 2023 at some point.

I'm not saying it's bound to happen this year, it can come next year and even late next year as a cross gen title, but the chances of them just scrapping the game AGAIN and ditching the version that was officially announced and is reconfirmed every 3 months are extremely thin. For it to become Switch 2 only, when by late 2021 it was targeting 2023, they'd have to scrap and almost content complete game to start from scratch in 2022 or 2023 for a release in 2027 at the absolute earliest and with an unknown console in mind.

If they didn't ditch Breath of the Wild nor its DLC for Wii U, they have literally no reason to ditch Metroid Prime 4 for Switch, moreso after they felt the need to announce that it was being rebooted 1.5 year after announcement. You don't do that publicly just to 6 years later announce it's coming to another console like the last 8 years didn't happen.
 
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