Discussion how much do you think the next 3D Zelda on switch 2 will sell ?

[Tall Valley Nerd]

the discussion on an another thread made me wonder about what will the Zelda series sales look like forward especially after the huge success of botw though i wanted to know what you all think
what do you expect of the sales of the next zelda

 

[ILikeFeet]

somewhere over 10M, but under 20M. 15M, I guess?

 

[kimbo99]

30M or it's a bust. /s

 

[ziggyrivers]

Same as BOTW

 

[Aufhebung RPG]

If the next 3d Mario is able to maintain sales in the 25 million level, then 3d zelda will be around the 20 million level as well, and note that the series is now in basically the same position as 3d Mario in terms of sales.

 

[GPKs3]

21 million

 

[Danny]

Impossible to predict, we know nothing about concept, scope, game mechanics, story, world etc of next open air Zelda game. We also don't know how big the install base of the Switch 2 will be.

The only thing we can say for certain is that Zelda sales potential have grown, so i have a hard time seeing any 3D Zelda game sell a few million copies like what happened with Skyward sword, Wind waker, Majora's mask etc.

 

[Pillydillsy]

Really depends on how original it is. If it’s located in a new environment with brand new enemies, mechanics, characters, etc, I think above 25 million could be fair. If it’s Hyrule again? 15 million at most

 

[Coco98bisFR]

One good thing is that it should release around 2028/2029, which means that the Switch 2 should be at its peak, neither too early when there's only a few millions os systems sold, neither too late when the installed base is huge, but lots of player already deserted.

As said above, we know nothing about it, so it's hard to make an estimation 4 or 5 years before, lmao, but I think it will sell somewhere between ToTK and BoTW, so "more than ToTK".

 

[Secu]

Based on TOTK, it depends on how people discuss sales （lifetime or FY） and the sales of Switch 2.

 

[Josh5890]

I'll say 20~25m. It will probably be somewhere between BOTW and TOTK.

 

[balgajo]

Considering Switch 2 is likely going to be a more iterative concept I don't expect the same record eating beast as Switch, but still a 100M+ console.

If they bring something that feels fresh and with the same great critical reception as always I think it can sell more than Totk but less than Botw.

 

[Twohearts]

20-30, somewhere in there. Have a good feeling about switch 2's sales

 

[Guaraná]

between 10 and 15 millions

 

[Mekanos]

Really hard to say, but assuming it feels fresh from the BOTW/TOTK mold, I think it'll sell more than TOTK but less than BOTW. 25-30 million.

 

[Marce-chan]

It's super early to speculate on that, I feel...
BotW was just an amazing moment because it sold throughout during all of Switch's extended life, was a full reinvention of the franchise and highly praised as one of the best games of all time that inspired many other games.
Tears of the Kingdom was a front-loaded monster that had years of hype and released on a 130m+ install base.

We don't know how much Switch 2 will sell. I just guess it'll outsell Wii and be a super successful machine but won't get near Switch, so the sales of most games won't be as insane.

It can be a mid-gen phenomenon like Animal Crossing New Horizons was, having years of hype and selling like crazy. It can come late in the gen and be front-loaded as Tears of the Kingdom.

I don't think they'll replicate BotW in sales, but I think it'll outsell Tears of the Kingdom. I'm also being optimistic and thinking I'll come in 2027/early 2028 so the same time frame as ACNH did.

 

[Ab]

Probably will be 25 M lifetime sales, possibly 30

 

[Instro]

More than Tears, less than BotW, seems like a reasonable guess. It's like 5+ years away though so who even knows.

 

[Saturnman789]

13 copies, no not 13 million, just 13.
zelda is a niche rouge-lite indie franchise after all
bump it up to 20 if my boy tingle is in the game

 

[william]

depends how popular the new system is

 

[Prophet64]

Probably at least one copy... to me. But I don't see the point in speculating about the sales of a game that hasn't been announced of a supremely popular series on a system that hasn't even been announced or released itself.

 

[VintoWin]

Less than tears of the kingdom. Pretty much guaranteed lol.

Idk how anyone thinks Switch 2 titles will sell as much as the Switch counterparts. History suggests otherwise.

Attach Rates down. Install Base down.

 

[Wockio]

After a certain threshold, let's say maybe 100 million consoles, how well a game sells comes down entirely to what the game itself is. New Super Mario Bros. and New Super Mario Bros. Wii sold almost the same despite Wii being more expensive and there being 2 Wii consoles for every 3 DS systems.

I'm going above TotK, but below BotW. I think people will be surprised by how well software sales will hold up in general.

 

[dolpic]

I am being informed by reliable sources that if it does not sell 30 million, then Shigeru Miyamoto will host a public execution of Eiji Aonuma.