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Hardware Do you think the Switch will ever surpass the ps2 in sales?

lemonfresh

lemonfresh

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Do you think the Switch will surpass the ps2 ever, will the sales slow down when the Switch 2 /drake comes out? I think it could maybe mario wonder will push the units for it to happen.

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Maybe. But it's worth remembering that a lot of people bought the PS2 because it was a DVD Player. The switch is relatively more impressive in it's sales.
 
If there is a price cut this holiday, and the next console isn't announced until summer 2024, then yes
 
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at this point it's definitely gonna be on post new console release legs. it can hit 140mill before then without much trouble considering it's 125m rn pre-TOTK
 
imo Late 2024 Successor with price cut: 100% (still probably without pc)
early 2024 with pc also probably (hard without pc legs though)
 
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Just looking at Japan you would think so but worldwide it is slowing down so I think it's got a firm grasp on #3 at this point.

But with a price cut or further support even with next gen, it could happen.
 
Narroo said:
Maybe. But it's worth remembering that a lot of people bought the PS2 because it was a DVD Player. The switch is relatively more impressive in it's sales.
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"But it's a home console and a handheld" is going to become the new "but it's a home console and a DVD player" if Switch ends up #1.

Every console in the image of OP's post achieved insane success regardless of what they could physically do.
 
lemonfresh said:
Do you think the Switch will surpass the ps2 ever, will the sales slow down when the Switch 2 /drake comes out? I think it could maybe mario wonder will push the units for it to happen.

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Just want to say that the figure is actually 125.62 million units, not 122.5 million units.
 
If Nintendo manages to reach their 15 million target this fiscal year, then the system will be at around 140 million. So the question is can the system move another 20 million after that? Well, the GBA remained on the market for a few years after the launch of the DS with new first-party releases only stopping two years later -- okay, in the West, all we got from NOA by that point was Pokémon Mystery Dungeon and a Final Fantasy port, but Japan got Mother 3 and Rhythm Tengoku -- and managed another 16 million (it closed out 2004 at 65.7 million). So I say it depends on how much longer the Switch will get new Nintendo games: if everything from EPD/NLG/NST/HAL/etc. is already going straight to the Switch 2 by that system's second year on the market, then it ain't happening. If it is still getting new games, even if it's just smaller releases, into 2026 (or, hell, 2027) then maybe it could just barely squeak by. Maybe. I doubt it, though.

It'd also need a price cut: GBA got that extra 16 million in good part because it was an already cheap $100 handheld that became an even cheaper $80 when the DS released.
 
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I think there's a good to decent chance the Switch is at or slightly below 130M as of end of June.

~140 at the end of 2023

And from there, it all depends on what Nintendo is up to..

Software schedule?
Timing of reveal event of NSW 2?
Timing of release for NSW 2?
Crossgen titles going forward?
Possible pricedrop?


Plenty of factors but I think it can do it.
 
The Giant said:
Only with a massive price drop.
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It has very little to do with a drop in price and everything to do with when the successor launches.

Switch is selling much faster than PS2 did so the whole thing is really up to Nintendo.

I don't think Nintendo cares about this record but the Switch will probably pass 160 million anyway.
 
The data is not correct. As per end March 2023, Switch already sold >125 million units, not 122 million. This coming August Nintendo will releasing Q1 (April - June 2023) result for current FY23/24. I think it's will make 5 million for total 130 million. So another 26 million to pass PS2 (155 million) in coming 2 years++ (because have cross play period when Switch 2 releasing next year + price reduction card).
Or if calculated another way, Nintendo said will selling 15 million Switch in FY23/24, so end March 2024 = 125 + 15 = 140 million. So just another 16 million after March 2024. Yes it's will passing PS2
 
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Yes. Regardless of when the next console will be announced. Even the 3DS managed to sell almost another 10 Million units while the Switch was already released.
 
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For a while I'd assumed Switch would top out around 145 million by the time Nintendo stopped producing it, but it's clearly going above that and it's going to be close to or above PS2 when all is said and done.

Assuming Nintendo hit their fiscal year target, it'll be at 140 million next April. Now it might seem that 17 to 20 million is an easy task after that, but we've seen massively successful systems like DS and PS4 drop rapidly once their successor systems are out. I don't think there's the long-tail market there used to be; not least because hardware retains a higher price point than it used to and because there are far more forms of affordable gaming available across more ubiquitous devices. Perhaps Nintendo slash the price of Switch once new hardware is out to try and get those long-term sales out of it.

Regardless, I think Switch just about manages it and it overtakes PS2 sometime in 2026 or 2027 shortly before Nintendo discontinue it. I think it depends how it holds up in the next fiscal year. If Nintendo can shift another 10 million in 2024/25 fiscal year, that leaves 7 million to overhaul PS2. Assuming sales drop the way they did for DS and PS4, it'd take another two fiscal years, but they'd just about manage it.
 
I can see it surpassing 150m, will need some luck and Nintendo not stopping production for another year.
 
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Yes. I think the next system will have a much higher price tag which will make Switch still an attractive purchase. I also think we are in for a couple year cross gen period which will keep Switch alive with consistent content.
 
The fact it's even in the same stratosphere as PS2 and DS is nothing short of remarkable really.

It all depends on what Nintendo's cross gen strategy is for their new console in my mind. If they plan on having a good year or two where games release on both the Switch and its successor, with the Switch 1 serving as the 'cheaper' option, it'll clear PS2 eventually. If the new console is a clean break and Nintendo stop supporting the base Switch immediately (which is unlikely in my book), then it may just fall short.
 
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important thing i think isn't being mentioned much for this quarter is the TOTK boost feels real. it's so utterly massive it actually gulfed even BotW for some time in sheer scale of popularity.

i think it might singlehandedly cut the decline pretty severely this year
 
A maybe depending on the situation.
If they wpukd released a pro model or price cut, the whole situation would be different. also what they are going todo with mario wonders? Themed switch?

That said, the only reason why ps2 did sell so well is that it was a cheap blueray player. This wasnt the case for nintendo ds
 
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JoshuaJSlone said:
They didn't care enough to make DS achieve it.
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I think they did what they could with the DS. It got several different models, SKUs and price cuts.

The Switch will have better longevity than the DS because it will benefit from a cross gen period that the DS just didn't have, it was ancient hardware by the time the 3DS launched.
 
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It will get close, but its just not cheap enough for people to impulse buy at this point.

The PS2 and DS got really cheap by the end of their life cycles.

Honestly more impressive the Switch is even close to them without a price cut.
 
If it does, I'll be sad bc I think it means the Super Switch isn't compelling enough to make everyone move on quickly. If the successor is a) fully backwards compatible, b) Nintendo accounts transfer digital purchases, and c) it's a noticeable power upgrade with dedicated software, I think Switch sales are going to fall off an absolute cliff like the 3DS.

Alternatively, if all three of those factors aren't true, then I think millions of ppl will delay transitioning to the new console and it will leg out the 17m+ post 2024 needed to pass the PS2.
 
I'm certain the sales won't fall of a cliff as soon as The Succ comes since I expect it to be at least 100$ more expansive than base models.

Switch being a budget model(maybe OLED dropping to 299,99, Lite to 149,99 and OG always bundled with a game?) it'll still be a beast IMO.

I expect cross gen releases for about 2 years or so after Switch 2 comes(come on even 3DS got it, and its games wouldn't be playable on Switch).

Switch will be at around 140M by March 2024, and we don't know when Switch 2 will come. It can be holiday 2024, which will make Switch have 6-8 more months to sell before it comes. And after it comes it'll probably be on shortages like Switch was in 2017/18 so a lot of people will get OG instead, mainly if most of the launch window games are cross gen(Pokémon is almost surely cross gen).

Super Mario Bros. Wonder and Tears of the Kingdom will keep moving consoles in 2024 and I think they can get DLC coming alongside their Drake patches.

So my answer is: unless Drake is early 2024 and OG Switch doesn't get any price cuts, yes, it's gonna surpass PS2.
 
It depends on the launch of the new system, with price drops I totally see it selling at least 15 m after the launch of the Succ. Tf it's already at 145 m by then (for example, by meeting its hardware targets and having the successor launch in summer/fall 2024 then it's all but guaranteed.
 
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Yeah. It's probably going to get a price cut when next gen is announced, and they're still gonna release crossgen games on it for two years further driving sales.
 
Hard to know until we know the exact details about the Switch successor, it's price, if it's bc, and if current Switch will continue to see strong support. I feel like if Nintendo wanted the record, they could absolutely make it happen, but I think they'll prioritize getting people onto the successor over selling an extra 10-20 million original Switch in 2025-2026.

The PS2 kept getting games for many years into the PS3/360/Wii era because it was still selling as a cheap gaming device with a massive library of great games, could get new games from both the psp and wii, and had the dvd factor where some families bought a second or 3rd for that functionality. The Switch successor won't have any of those minus in theory being a cheap(er) option with a massive library of great games.
 
It's gonna be really close, and very dependent on the timing and form the successor takes, but if I had to guess right now, no.

Switch is at 125m as of FY22 end right? So let's say it's at ~140m by end of FY23, which on the one hand is very generous for a console in its seventh year, but on the other hand is definitely possible with both TotK and Wonder. I expect the successor to be announced no later than summer 2024, for release in fall 2024, but possibly earlier. And if it's backwards compatible like everyone's expecting, I could easily see Switch hardware sales dropping by half in FY24 (bringing it to ~147m) unless it gets a massive price cut. And then plummeting further in subsequent years. Don't think it could eke out the last 8m+

It's crazy that even in this "worst case" scenario it could come so close though. So if anything deviates from my expectations (AKA guesses) it could definitely still dethrone the PS2 and DS
 
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Marce-chan said:
I'm certain the sales won't fall of a cliff as soon as The Succ comes since I expect it to be at least 100$ more expansive than base models.

Switch being a budget model(maybe OLED dropping to 299,99, Lite to 149,99 and OG always bundled with a game?) it'll still be a beast IMO.

I expect cross gen releases for about 2 years or so after Switch 2 comes(come on even 3DS got it, and its games wouldn't be playable on Switch).

Switch will be at around 140M by March 2024, and we don't know when Switch 2 will come. It can be holiday 2024, which will make Switch have 6-8 more months to sell before it comes. And after it comes it'll probably be on shortages like Switch was in 2017/18 so a lot of people will get OG instead, mainly if most of the launch window games are cross gen(Pokémon is almost surely cross gen).

Super Mario Bros. Wonder and Tears of the Kingdom will keep moving consoles in 2024 and I think they can get DLC coming alongside their Drake patches.

So my answer is: unless Drake is early 2024 and OG Switch doesn't get any price cuts, yes, it's gonna surpass PS2.
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With the important caveat that it depends on the actual hardware, I think the relative sales of the different Switch SKUs are an indicator that customers will forgo the cheapest console when there's better hardware available. Thus far, about 21m Lites have been sold in 34 months (about 5.5m per year) compared to 15m SWOLEDs in 24 months (7.5m per year) and the OG's 85m in 76 months (14m per year).

The Lite is the least popular version of the Switch even though it's the cheapest. If the Succ is an improvement over the Switch in the way that the OG/SWOLED are more capable than the Lite, a $400-450 price isn't going to matter that much. A price cut should juice the sales a bit, but who knows if the margins on the console are big enough for them to implement one.

I'm really curious what the hardware specs and launch lineup will be for the Succ, bc it'll be interesting to see.
 
JorgenRaft said:
"But it's a home console and a handheld" is going to become the new "but it's a home console and a DVD player" if Switch ends up #1.

Every console in the image of OP's post achieved insane success regardless of what they could physically do.
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Technically, that's true.

The difference is that people weren't all buying the PS2 to play video games on. A substantial chunk of people bought it was a cheap, good-quality, DVD player. Sony gave the razors away to sell the blades.

What I'm saying is, is that the Switch's sales are, in some ways, more impressive than the PS2's considering that it didn't have an "extra" hook that catered beyond the "gaming crowd."
 
It may strongly rely on the support of it in the future, especially when the new hardware arrives. And yeah, price cuts...
 
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I always used to say that if the successor doesn't release until 2025, then Switch probably will pass PS2. That being said, I strongly believe now that the successor will release in 2024. I think it will then be impossible for Switch to surpass PS2 (or DS for that matter). I could see Switch squeaking past 150m though. Still impressive for it to come within striking distance considering how long the PS2 was on the market and how cheap the DS was.
 
Torpoleon said:
I always used to say that if the successor doesn't release until 2025, then Switch probably will pass PS2. That being said, I strongly believe now that the successor will release in 2024. I think it will then be impossible for Switch to surpass PS2 (or DS for that matter). I could see Switch squeaking past 150m though. Still impressive for it to come within striking distance considering how long the PS2 was on the market and how cheap the DS was.
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Nintendo only aims to be successful and generate as much profit and good will as possible. They don't care about this record at all which is why they won't attempt it. If the Switch passes 160 million it will only be circumstantial and not in any way planned.

Switch generated far more profits than PS2, Switch sold much faster, Switch never had to drop in price, first party game sales blew PS2 away.

There are many metrics a business can already look at this as the most successful platform ever, but Nintendo won't even do that as they only thing they are looking at is what's ahead. It's a modest Japanese business mindset and also the correct one because sitting around taking the time to pat themselves on the back is not efficient or in any way productive.

btw

I'm not sold that the Switch 2 doesn't release in 2025 anyway though. I've heard 2024 rumours and they sound like they have some merit but so did the previous set of rumours that didn't come to fruition and the ones before that.
 
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Yes. Nintendo will probably keep it around as a budget option once the Switch 2 comes out.
I'm also doubting the Switch 2 will be out next year considering the strong software lineup this year. Nintendo systems are always earmarked by a weak final year.
 
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Yes. The successor won’t release until fall 2025 and Nintendo will keep putting out good games for it. Games sell hardware so more good games will continue to sell the Switch.

That achievement will be much more impressive than the PS2 because the Switch is enthusiastically a video game system. No multimedia stuff included.


The Switch will also sell completely due to the quality of its library and how he hardware facilitates the player playing when and how they want. It won’t be because it sold half of its hardware total because its successor was a bomb and a business disaster. (Don’t tell me that the PS3 sold 80 million units. It almost bankrupted all of Sony Group Corp., crippled the Japanese third party companies or bankrupted them, sent the Japanese market into decline that only the DS/3DS held out against and the Switch reversed and maybe barely broke even after SIE extended the generation to almost ten years to try to make its money back on a nominal cash basis.)

That $600 price tag and lack of compelling games for PS3 moved a lot of PS2’s after 2006. Especially in the Middle East, South Asia, Africa, and SE Asia where Sony had distribution channels but Nintendo didn’t for the DS. That… won’t be the case for Switch.
 
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This is probably (definitly) goalpost moving but even if it doesn't, Switch's sales are 100% more impressive to me. I was 10 or 11 and I knew lots of adults who bought the PS2 because it was an affordable DVD player. Maybe they wound up playing GTA on it but it was bought as a multimedia device. Switch is a tried and true games machine. Hitting even 130m as that is remarkable on its own.
 
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