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Discussion Nintendo's 2022 line-up seems perfect for a new stronger console

Hush said:
But then where is Mario Kart 9? We are going on 8 years since the game released and 5 years since the deluxe edition. Same can be said for the next 3D Mario. It really feels like these are two games specifically being held for the next Nintendo platform, and they can't wait ages till they are out just because the Switch is doing well.

There are only so many games they can release on Switch before the timing of the release of their next platform and development of new installments are misaligned, and Nintendo needs a heavy loaded first year with first part software
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My theory on Mario Kart 9 not being released anytime soon is related to this story....

https://sensortower.com/blog/mario-kart-tour-200-million-downloads

If Nintendo gets even 30% of the people who downloaded Tour to buy Mario Kart 8, Mario Kart 8 will sell 60 million copies. Mario Kart 8 is nowhere close to being at saturation point yet. I would go as far to speculate that Nintendo is timing the Switch successor to Mario Kart 8 reaching saturation point because MK8Deluxe is the number 1 Switch system seller.
 
Aquarius said:
My theory on Mario Kart 9 not being released anytime soon is related to this story....

https://sensortower.com/blog/mario-kart-tour-200-million-downloads

If Nintendo gets even 30% of the people who downloaded Tour to buy Mario Kart 8, Mario Kart 8 will sell 60 million copies. Mario Kart 8 is nowhere close to being at saturation point yet. I would go as far to speculate that Nintendo is timing the Switch successor to Mario Kart 8 reaching saturation point because MK8Deluxe is the number 1 Switch system seller.
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huh, I've been wondering how Mario Kart has been doing. I'm glad Nintendo has gotten some successes in mobile. wish Dragalia Lost did better, since I want to see more from the IP
 
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Aquarius said:
My theory on Mario Kart 9 not being released anytime soon is related to this story....

https://sensortower.com/blog/mario-kart-tour-200-million-downloads

If Nintendo gets even 30% of the people who downloaded Tour to buy Mario Kart 8, Mario Kart 8 will sell 60 million copies. Mario Kart 8 is nowhere close to being at saturation point yet. I would go as far to speculate that Nintendo is timing the Switch successor to Mario Kart 8 reaching saturation point because MK8Deluxe is the number 1 Switch system seller.
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I think thats really separate since even if MK Tour flopped it wouldn't spark them to release MK9 anytime sooner. If there is one game (other than Smash) that is being planned for their next gen device, its definitely that one. And the years are accumulating from the last numbered console entry for MK.

Also, I forgot to respond to a part of your last post with third parties and Switch support. There are lots of claims about new dev kits for a stronger device being out there and still we see lots of Cloud versions coming. I believe it has to do more about time an investment, with Nintendo saying "Look if you are worried about how your Switch versions will sell after using resources and developers to scale them to our platform then you can just do a Cloud version for us so its less of a risk for you". Especially with next gen games being more SSD based in the coming years, its going to still be an issue as long as the technical gaps still exist between Nintendo and PlayStation/Xbox
 
Hush said:
I think thats really separate since even if MK Tour flopped it wouldn't spark them to release MK9 anytime sooner. If there is one game (other than Smash) that is being planned for their next gen device, its definitely that one. And the years are accumulating from the last numbered console entry for MK.
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This is where we disagree. Tour's downloads and Mario Kart 8 sales are related. Nintendo put games on mobile as stealth marketing. They wanted to "demo" their games on smartphones to "advertise" how their games play to people who have never owned their hardware before.

Hush said:
Also, I forgot to respond to a part of your last post with third parties and Switch support. There are lots of claims about new dev kits for a stronger device being out there and still we see lots of Cloud versions coming. I believe it has to do more about time an investment, with Nintendo saying "Look if you are worried about how your Switch versions will sell after using resources and developers to scale them to our platform then you can just do a Cloud version for us so its less of a risk for you". Especially with next gen games being more SSD based in the coming years, its going to still be an issue as long as the technical gaps still exist between Nintendo and PlayStation/Xbox
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The point is it could go either way. But I doubt Nintendo will put MK8Deluxe on the Switch successor. That's for Mario Kart 9. And why would they put out a whole new console and put MK9 on it when MK8Deluxe is still selling well and moving Switches?
 
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bellydrum said:
Who are you talking to and what are you talking about?
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bellydrum said:
I'm still not enturely sure what the problem is. People are being too hopeful for your liking?
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I feel like you are being unnecessarily snarky. What they're saying holds plenty of merit. It's well documented that many fans will get upset and aggressive because they constantly work themselves into a shoot over stuff like this
 
I'm picky to the point where I'd argue their lineup has been ready for a stronger console. It would have been nice to see games like BOTW and Xenoblade 2 run at 1080p
 
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Aquarius said:
This is where we disagree. Tour's downloads and Mario Kart 8 sales are related. Nintendo put games on mobile as stealth marketing. They wanted to "demo" their games on smartphones to "advertise" how their games play to people who have never owned their hardware before.



The point is it could go either way. But I doubt Nintendo will put MK8Deluxe on the Switch successor. That's for Mario Kart 9. And why would they put out a whole new console and put MK9 on it when MK8Deluxe is still selling well and moving Switches?
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Cross synergy between console and mobile releases a thing, but they have no direct relation. One is meant for mobile engagement and the other to push hardware and rake in game sales. So I'm just saying MKT isn't going to be considered for how and when the next MK arrives.

Are you implying that the next Nintendo console won't have BC? Because that would be a Wii U sized mistake
 
Honestly, at this point in the generation (five years in) I’m surprised Nintendo hasn’t released a Switch TV yet that plays all of the same games just with a higher resolution / framerate. I can understand their hesitancy to releasing a “tv only” system, but it doesn’t have to be more than a luxury product for those who want it and it wouldn’t interrupt development pipeline at all since it’s still a “Switch” that plays all the same games.

It seems like such an obvious way to have your cake and eat it too.
 
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Hush said:
Cross synergy between console and mobile releases a thing, but they have no direct relation. One is meant for mobile engagement and the other to push hardware and rake in game sales. So I'm just saying MKT isn't going to be considered for how and when the next MK arrives.

Are you implying that the next Nintendo console won't have BC? Because that would be a Wii U sized mistake
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I think it will, but its possible that it wont. As for Mario Kart I will base a prediction on my speculation that Tour is positively affecting Mario Kart 8 sales.

(1) Mario Kart 9 is not coming anytime soon.
(2) Mario Kart 8 is not at saturation point and wont be anytime soon.
(3) Mario Kart 8 will sell millions more copies and keep going like the Energizer Bunny way into 2023.

We will have to wait and see if I'm right or wrong.
 
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Lord Azrael said:
I feel like you are being unnecessarily snarky.
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I agree—I don't like reacting the way I did, because I feel it's against the chill nature of this community. So thanks for calling me out on that.

My initial problem was with the driveby dismissal of the entire dicussion.

"Please stop doing this to yourselves."

That's a complete disregard of the discussion, and concerning itself over events that have not at all happened in this thread. It's a derail driveby and I don't think that kind of posting belongs here.
 
bellydrum said:
I agree—I don't like reacting the way I did, because I feel it's against the chill nature of this community. So thanks for calling me out on that.

My initial problem was with the driveby dismissal of the entire dicussion.

"Please stop doing this to yourselves."

That's a complete disregard of the discussion, and concerning itself over events that have not at all happened in this thread. It's a derail driveby and I don't think that kind of posting belongs here.
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That's totally fair. It's a new community - a new start - so there's no need to poison the well by taking it for granted that the same issues that have plagued different communities in the past will arise here too, before it's even started. And if the board is moderated with that in mind, as it seems it will be, then there's no reason that kind of negativity should pop up here in the first place.
 
Aquarius said:
I think it will, but its possible that it wont. As for Mario Kart I will base a prediction on my speculation that Tour is positively affecting Mario Kart 8 sales.

(1) Mario Kart 9 is not coming anytime soon.
(2) Mario Kart 8 is not at saturation point and wont be anytime soon.
(3) Mario Kart 8 will sell millions more copies and keep going like the Energizer Bunny way into 2023.

We will have to wait and see if I'm right or wrong.
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A positive impact on already existing software is entirely the point of the console and mobile crossing strategy, but again a mobile release means pretty much nothing for the next console installment. Pokemon Go didn't put the franchise on ice for a few years, new games have continuously co-existed with the support.

The real meaning here though is that despite MK8D still selling well, there is going to be a point where MK9 will be crucial to pushing hardware rather than just its own sales. And Nintendo more than anyone else still has it where their exclusive games determine how fast people jump aboard to their new platforms.
 
Hush said:
A positive impact on already existing software is entirely the point of the console and mobile crossing strategy, but again a mobile release means pretty much nothing for the next console installment. Pokemon Go didn't put the franchise on ice for a few years, new games have continuously co-existed with the support.
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Wasn't Pokemon Go's success one of the reasons Sword and Shield did so well?

Hush said:
The real meaning here though is that despite MK8D still selling well, there is going to be a point where MK9 will be crucial to pushing hardware rather than just its own sales. And Nintendo more than anyone else still has it where their exclusive games determine how fast people jump aboard to their new platforms.
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Agreed, and this is one of the reasons I think Nintendo is going to time Mario Kart 9 with a Switch successor launch. Mario Kart 8 doing so well now and into the future will delay Mario Kart 9's release.
 
It'll certainly be a few years before Nintendo's output lines up that well again.
lemonfresh said:
Ok I have to ask.... who is dane?
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Some comic book character. Nvidia SoC codenames are generally named after the real names of comic book superheroes.

Dane specifically is a chip that has been rumored to be in development for Nintendo using a similar architecture to their more automotive focused Orin SoC which launches next year.
Marce-chan said:
I'm sorry if I misunderstand the general feeling too. Also, if you wouldn't mind it, can you explain to me what you and most people have been thinking about what the DLSS model will be? I skipped speculations for awhile and when I got back I even got a bit scared that a lot of people are thinking it's a successor.
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Personally I expect it to be an iterative successor, in a somewhat similar vein to how PS5/XS have played out. For the first year or two it'll mostly fill the revision role, with little to no (first party) exclusives and then Switch 1 support will start to drop off and the new system will slowly become the baseline. When all is said and done, I think the Switch 1 could at least get close to 10 years of first party support, albeit at reduced levels towards the end.

Third parties will be free to do whatever, though the Switch 1 install base will provide some level of incentive for the ones that currently support Switch 1 to continue to do so, at least for a bit.
 
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ILikeFeet said:
I guess? but in any noticeable way? I'd say no. the Pokemon GO high long since wore off. Sword and Shield were sold off the merits of the game itself
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What I mean is IIRC Pokemon Go reinvigorated or enhanced Pokemon's popularity right? If it did, it would positively affect all the console games, merchandize, movies, etc. for years.
 
Aquarius said:
What I mean is IIRC Pokemon Go reinvigorated or enhanced Pokemon's popularity right? If it did, it would positively affect all the console games, merchandize, movies, etc. for years.
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it would have, but has it sustained that growth is unknown. we have no merch numbers, the movies moved to different distribution avenues so we can't compare that, console games haven't been particularly better overall when you include spin offs. the issue with taking Let's Go and Sword and Shield into contention is how do you separate the Pokemon Go hype from your general Switch hype? other Nintendo IPs are breaking records, so why wouldn't a well received Pokemon?
 
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Aquarius said:
Wasn't Pokemon Go's success one of the reasons Sword and Shield did so well?



Agreed, and this is one of the reasons I think Nintendo is going to time Mario Kart 9 with a Switch successor launch. Mario Kart 8 doing so well now and into the future will delay Mario Kart 9's release.
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Like others have said, Sun and Moon were the key indicators of the Go impact but it could have extended into other games. But as I said, they co-existed and future releases went ahead as planned.

But no, not necessarily will MK8D delay MK9 since the next Nintendo console will be driven by it's release. Nintendo sees things from a broad perspective and I really doubt MK8D selling well will stop plans for the next MK and the new console. Since Nintendo's "saturation points" for their software are well beyond most games (even MK Wii still sells some copies) MK8D should still be selling at that point. Especially if MK9 is locked to the next system and there are late adopters who only get into the ecosystem with a Switch/Lite purchase.

In late 2022 or sometime in 2023, I think no one will feel that MK8D's life was cut short and Nintendo is already elated with its performance versus how it did on Wii U
 
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Only if you think more new hardware releases in the first half of 2022, somehow. Otherwise it doesn't make much sense to release all of your major software and then your shiny new hardware near the end of the year.
MondoMega said:
Nintendo's 2022 lineup doesn't feel like a new hardware launch year to me; it'll be a year for software sales to shine. Every 2022 first-party title announced so far is a new installment of a series that already has games available on the Switch. It's a year where they'll be focusing on people looking for more Pokemon, more HD-2D, more Zelda, more Splatoon, more Bayonetta, more Mario + Rabbids, etc; on the Switch systems they already own. Kirby might be the freshest-looking game of the year so far, but that's never been a series that pushes hardware either.
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also this
 
frog said:
Only if you think more new hardware releases in the first half of 2022, somehow. Otherwise it doesn't make much sense to release all of your major software and then your shiny new hardware near the end of the year.

also this
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I'm not sure this would necessarily be a problem when they can launch a bunch of enhancement patches alongside the hardware. They're also certainly not putting out all their major stuff in the first half, that's just most of what we've seen for now since Nintendo has been generally trying to avoid announcing things too early, especially during covid.
 
frog said:
Only if you think more new hardware releases in the first half of 2022, somehow. Otherwise it doesn't make much sense to release all of your major software and then your shiny new hardware near the end of the year.

also this
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Only Pokemon Legends and Kirby Forgotten Lands have targeted dates and windows. BotW 2 doesn't even have an official title yet, and Splat 3 and Bayo 3 are just "2022". I don't think anything suggest that all those games will be out in the first 6 months of the year
 
now that patching games for higher spec'd profiles is the norm, launching your game then updating later isn't an issue. if anything, the biggest issue will be deciding to launch now or launch around new hardware to take advantage of the high
 
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Pokemaniac said:
I'm not sure this would necessarily be a problem when they can launch a bunch of enhancement patches alongside the hardware. They're also certainly not putting out all their major stuff in the first half, that's just most of what we've seen for now since Nintendo has been generally trying to avoid announcing things too early, especially during covid.
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Hush said:
Only Pokemon Legends and Kirby Forgotten Lands have targeted dates and windows. BotW 2 doesn't even have an official title yet, and Splat 3 and Bayo 3 are just "2022". I don't think anything suggest that all those games will be out in the first 6 months of the year
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I mean in the scenario that BOTW 2 Bayo 3 etc are second half it still doesn't quite align with big hardware launch year, not in the same way as 2017. Nintendo certainly could launch new hardware anyway. But the software lineup so far does not by itself point to that happening.
 
frog said:
I mean in the scenario that BOTW 2 Bayo 3 etc are second half it still doesn't quite align with big hardware launch year, not in the same way as 2017. Nintendo certainly could launch new hardware anyway. But the software lineup so far does not by itself point to that happening.
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The elephant in the room is the OLED model and its sales potential. If/when the OLED takes off and demand for it is even higher than the regular model and it is perpetually sold out, why would Nintendo release new hardware? Wouldn't it make more sense to focus manufacturing on satisfying OLED demand. I've noticed many people seem to underestimate the sales potential of the OLED model.
 
frog said:
I mean in the scenario that BOTW 2 Bayo 3 etc are second half it still doesn't quite align with big hardware launch year, not in the same way as 2017. Nintendo certainly could launch new hardware anyway. But the software lineup so far does not by itself point to that happening.
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Not sure what you mean, Metroid Prime Remake/remaster and XC3 are heavily rumored to launch next year too. There are a lot of big software releases gravitating towards next year, even if some may slip into Q1 2023.

But even then, the Switch was a completely new start for them while the next hardware launch (whether a Pro or a Switch 2) will be part of their Switch ecosystem

Aquarius said:
The elephant in the room is the OLED model and its sales potential. If/when the OLED takes off and demand for it is even higher than the regular model and it is perpetually sold out, why would Nintendo release new hardware? Wouldn't it make more sense to focus manufacturing on satisfying OLED demand. I've noticed many people seem to underestimate the sales potential of the OLED model.
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The chances of the OLED overtaking demand for the standard Switch and the Lite this late in the game and when there are cheaper options is slim to none. Even the revamped Xbox One S saw slowdown very quick after being received well at launch, and that was only three years after the Xbox One and with a significantly less established install base (Switch is nearing 100 million sales).

Its a nice product for those of us who wanted a refresh on the Switch, but I believe the pool of buyers who want one versus getting into the ecosystem for cheaper is really small
 
Hush said:
The chances of the OLED overtaking demand for the standard Switch and the Lite this late in the game and when there are cheaper options is slim to none.
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Aha! We will see who is correct. 😁 I predict the OLED Switch is going to take off like a rocket and sell like a Switch "relaunch" and keep going right into 2023. Nintendo will be frantically trying to supply the OLED model into next year.
 
Hush said:
The chances of the OLED overtaking demand for the standard Switch and the Lite this late in the game and when there are cheaper options is slim to none. Even the revamped Xbox One S saw slowdown very quick after being received well at launch, and that was only three years after the Xbox One and with a significantly less established install base (Switch is nearing 100 million sales).

Its a nice product for those of us who wanted a refresh on the Switch, but I believe the pool of buyers who want one versus getting into the ecosystem for cheaper is really small
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that's assuming the LCD switch sticks around for much longer. it's expensive to keep redundant skus around
 
Aquarius said:
Aha! We will see who is correct. 😁 I predict the OLED Switch is going to take off like a rocket and sell like a Switch "relaunch" and keep going right into 2023. Nintendo will be frantically trying to supply the OLED model into next year.
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To be fair, everyone is frantically trying to supply their hardware due to production issues caused by component shortages lol.

ILikeFeet said:
that's assuming the LCD switch sticks around for much longer. it's expensive to keep redundant skus around
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With it being more expensive, I can't see it replacing the current Switch (even with the Lite being a thing). There are many markets out there with different price sensitivities. I could see the OLED model being folded into the stronger console very fast since many speculate it only exists because the current production climate makes it unfeasible to launch a stronger console.

Nothing about the Switch OLED says its a game changer for the current Switch situation, but its definitely a pretty edition that is hinting at the coming experience for future Nintendo hardware
 
Hush said:
To be fair, everyone is frantically trying to supply their hardware due to production issues caused by component shortages lol.
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I'm also talking about demand. Switch OLED demand is going to be at 2017 levels and grow right into 2023. In other words Switch OLED demand is going to go through the roof.
 
Aquarius said:
I'm also talking about demand. Switch OLED demand is going to be at 2017 levels and grow right into 2023. In other words Switch OLED demand is going to go through the roof.
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I'm sorry but based on what? And correct me if I'm wrong but wasn't there reports that the amount of OLED models being produced for this year was small to begin with?
 
More like the switches final full year going out with a bang

I can see Metroid prime 4 and a new Mario releasing the first year with the new switch cross gen or not in 2023
 
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Aquarius said:
Games and the fact that the OLED is a shiny new Switch. What do you think the total sales number of the OLED Switch will be before its discontinued?
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Almost 100 million Switches out there that can play those games and we have no idea how many OLED units Nintendo even plans to produce throughout next year so its hard to predict what it'll end up at. I'd say it will be less than 10% of Switch lifetime sales
 
Hush said:
Almost 100 million Switches out there that can play those games and we have no idea how many OLED units Nintendo even plans to produce throughout next year so its hard to predict what it'll end up at. I'd say it will be less than 10% of Switch lifetime sales
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You have no idea? People were doing predictions of Switch before it came out. You don't even have a guess or a ballpark for the OLED model? Like...

(1) How many people who have Switches from 2017 will upgrade?
(2) How many people who have Switch Lites will upgrade?
(3) How many people will buy the OLED as their first Switch?
(4) The games that are coming out in the next couple of months and how they will drive people to want that fancy new OLED screen Switch?

You have nothing at all? I'll put mine in. 30 to 40 million.
 
Aquarius said:
You have no idea? People were doing predictions of Switch before it came out. You don't even have a guess or a ballpark for the OLED model? Like...

(1) How many people who have Switches from 2017 will upgrade?
(2) How many people who have Switch Lites will upgrade?
(3) How many people will buy the OLED as their first Switch?
(4) The games that are coming out in the next couple of months and how they will drive people to want that fancy new OLED screen Switch?

You have nothing at all? I'll put mine in. 30 to 40 million.
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Its hard because we don't know how many Nintendo will be able to produce, they have other models and have devkits for a stronger console in the hands of devs (reportedly). So the plan for the OLED model is very unclear and I would say impossible to understand right now taking everything into consideration

So at this time I'd say 10 million to maybe 15 million. But here is why I think your prediction is way too hopeful

- There is a lot of smoke for a new stronger console, its making people wanting to wait on what Nintendo announces next
- Not everyone wants an upgrade that exclusively benefits handheld gamers, many play just docked
- Many people are still trying to get a PS5 and Xbox Series X so the masses have their attention on actual new platforms before a Switch with a better screen
- We are nearly 5 years into the Switch life cycle so the hardware adaption slowdown is knocking on the door at this point, upgrading to a premium model without any software gains is unlikely to hold a long sales boon as the novelty of refreshes wears off (unless it comes with a price cut).
 
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