IMO that argument makes sense IF the new system is coming out in the fall - like we thought it was going to this year. Especially since it would be in the following fiscal year to that holiday season, they'd want to wrap up the holidays and mostly finish the fiscal year before they started talking about the new system (like they were apparently going to do in March).
Now, though, that argument doesn't really hold water - if Switch 2 is coming out before the end of the fiscal year (so before April 2025), then at the investor meeting on May 7th:
A) They have to forecast numbers for the year's sales that will include Switch 2
B) Investors are going to be very anxious about Switch 2 given the delay rumors and want to know it's still happening soon
C) There are currently zero games coming after June 2024, which is another big red flag for investors
Of course they could have a General Direct in April like is rumored and that would solve point C, but that alone does nothing about A and B.
Essentially like Nate said in his latest podcast, I will be shocked if Nintendo doesn't at least briefly mention something about Switch 2 on or before the investor meeting on May 7th. If they go into that meeting with nothing but the usual vague non-answers, investors are going to be very unhappy and stock prices are going to drop hard. Because at that point you're essentially telling investors that you have nothing big and no real reason to stay invested in the company for at least an entire year. The time is now - even if it's just a quick PR "We are working on the successor to the Nintendo Switch for release by the end of the fiscal year and will have more details to share at a later date."