Discussion When, if ever, do you think Nintendo will go all digital?

[BassForever]

The discussion over Alan Wake 2's digital only release and a bunch of "digital only is the way of the future" discussion flaring up, I figured it was worth discussing when we think Nintendo could join that future, if ever. Nintendo is currently the last hold out in terms of offering a subscription service that lets you download current gen titles like PS+ or Gamepass, though they do offer the voucher program. Nintendo physical software still dominates the charts in Japan, though even there we saw Zelda TotK be almost 50:50 between physical and digital. We also saw them experiment with the Prime Remaster for a day 1 digital release and a "limited" print run later. As a big physical buyer I would hate to see Nintendo drop physical games, and I'll never say never, but I can't imagine Nintendo going all digital until at least the console after next. For the sake of the poll I went with Switch 2/3/4 just to keep it simple.

 

[Samus95]

Nintendo phisical games sell super well and they basically never have to lower prices, if they continue like this they will drop phsical only when the videogame market will be completly changed by a new revolution

 

[CyberWolfJV]

I'm making sure that they are never adopting this model;

I'll pay more for a physical version of a game if needed even.

 

[Catalyst]

Nintendo will be the absolute last company to go digital only if it ever gets to that point (and by god I hope it never does).

 

[Green_Meeple]

Whenever their digital sales overtakes their physical to the point where they are losing money by printing games.

 

[Linkstrikesback]

Whenever their digital sales overtakes their physical to the point where they are losing money by printing games.

If we ever get to that point, it'll be very quickly supplanted by subscription services basically entirely, same as digital video was.

 

[xghost777]

I sincerely hope the all digital future never comes because I like to actually own things and physically share/gift things to others.

 

[Green_Meeple]

If we ever get to that point, it'll be very quickly supplanted by subscription services basically entirely, same as digital video was.

Probably, but it seems most subscription services lose money right now, so it would take a transition period.
Also, carts are usually more expensive than disks, so maybe if the switch 2 ends with a 80% or more digital (number that I've seen being thrown as happening on other consoles) the switch 3 could end up at least having an all digital version, if not being all digital only.

 

[fourfourfun]

With handhelds? I'm not sure ever. I feel like the exchangability of cartridges works really well for families that they won't leave it too soon. If they do bin it, they need to revisit their family sharing model.

Counterpoint: my single Xbox Series X doesn't go anywhere and I'm more than happy with that being purely digital.

 

[DrJay]

I’ve been wondering about this too. On the one hand, physical switch games are sold everywhere from pharmacies to toystores here, and I don’t know if that group of purchasers would convert to digital entirely.
On the other hand, they have the most expensive form of digital medium right now and I can imagine they wouldn’t want to get rid of that cost.

 

[rickyson33]

physical is expensive, between the manufacturing costs and retailer cuts they probably make like twice as much money off of a digital sale

do they still sell enough physical copies to make more money doing so than stopping and whatever percentage of those sales that would also buy digital convert to it? yeah probably, but they're probably a lot closer to the point where that isn't true than a lot of people think

i'd say Switch 3 is the point where selling physical will be actively losing them money compared to what they could make going all digitial, does that mean they go all digital by then? not necessarily, but that's the point where I think it starts losing them money

 

[Obsonet]

I wouldn’t say they would never do it but I think we are pretty far away from it happening
The switch 2 there’s no chance I think will probably be the same as the switch is now, Nintendo and most third parties have the game on cart and places like super rare and Iam8bit put out physical copies for indie games.
Switch 3 I think is unlikely but that’s probably 8 years from now so it’s hard to predict how things will change by then, I would say it’s unlikely physical isn’t an option though
Switch 4 no way of knowing things could be so different by then.

So I’d say for people who prefer physical it’s nothing to worry about for the next 10 years at least on Nintendo systems.

 

[PixelKnight]

Not in the foreseeable future. They sell a ton of merch to kids already, not to mention being able to give its products as gifts. They sit happily between the full-on digital setup of most media these days and physical, but retain one foot in the toy aisle too. And it works very well for them in terms of brand recognition and parents buying the things they remember as children for their own kids. Buying a kid a portable and a Mario game in a box still has a value in terms of not being connected to online stores etc.

I’m sure it’ll happen eventually, but so far ahead (at least 10 years) as to be hard to predict when.

 

[shoptroll]

Earliest I could see it happening is sometime in the 2030's which would likely be during the Switch 3 era

Whenever their digital sales overtakes their physical to the point where they are losing money by printing games.

Pretty much this. I think they've stated publicly that their retail partnerships are important to them, and I imagine the minute they go digital only there's going to be some tough negotiations around selling their systems in stores.

 

[olobolger]

Famitsu Sales Week 21, 2023 (May. 15-21)

https://www.installbaseforum.com/forums/threads/media-create-sales-week-20-2023-may-15-may-21.1651/#post-161901 Famitsu Sales: Week 21, 2023 (May 15 - May 21) SOFTWARE 01./01. [NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom # (Nintendo) {2023.05.12} (¥7.200) - 247.689 / 1.367.191 (-78%)...

famiboards.com

~300 000 boxed games just last week for the top 10 in Japan. Obviously, this is not fair, as TotK just launched, but you can take any other week and the point still stands. Even if they are the console manufacturer that could be interested the most, as their physical media is the most expensive, I don't think they have even just slightly thought on the possibility of ditching physical games for their next device. Of course, a lot can change between the end of Switch and the full run of another device (~10 years?), but I feel that they will always have some kind of physical presence, even if that becomes up to one point, more special, or collector's items, like vinyl releases now.

 

[Old Sorta Fan]

If they go all digital, I'm out. I don't like being at the mercy of someone else to access the entertainment that I paid my hard-earned money for.

 

[Brofield]

It may not be until Switch 4 or later, but I think it will be an inevitability before long. MS already made that attempt before with Xbone before the pivot, and really I believe it's biggest point of failure was because the internet infrastructure for a lot of the markets they're selling too isn't as robust in rural and suburban residences as it is in urban centres.

Once internet speeds reach a higher average across continents, it'll be a lot cheaper to 'ship' games digitally over cables than physical media and that's when we'll really see a sharp decline in physical media

 

[Derachi]

I don’t think it’ll be for a while, as not only do a lot of people still purchase most of their games physically, but Nintendo was really on the “we sell packaged goods” train until recently. That said, I think they’re going to get more and more aggressive with their coaxing of the audience towards digital, through the gold points program, the voucher program, etc. Digital makes more sense for them as a company because it’s immensely more profitable, as it costs much less to send a few GBs of data over the internet than it does to print a cartridge, box it up and ship it to stores. They also get more control over access: digital games can’t break street date, which is very important to them. Lastly, as was alluded to by Phil Spencer in that Kinda Funny interview: a carry-forward digital library is a great way to generate platform loyalty and maintain a more permanent relationship with the customer. Xbox lost the Xbox One/PS4 generation, and as Phil said, that was the worst generation to lose because that’s when people started building their permanent digital library, which was one of the factors in a lot of people’s next gen console buying decision. A lot more people will be tempted to buy a Switch 2 if all of their digital Switch 1 games are right there waiting for them, with some of them running better than ever on the new console.

I don’t think it’s going to be an overnight flipping of the all-digital switch, either. It’s going to be a gradual wind-down, which I think you’re already seeing in some ways. More codes-in-boxes, shrinking retail presence with fewer shelves of game boxes and more pegs of register-activated code cards, more day-one digital shadowdrops with physical releases being a few weeks later, smaller print runs, etc.

But yeah, I definitely don’t think Switch 2 will be the forced all-digital console, nor do I really think it’ll be Switch 3, but I’d be shocked if there’s the big Walmart glass-encased shelf of Switch 3 games. Maybe a smaller cabinet, like the one they keep SD cards and hard drives in. But there’s absolutely going to be a huge wall of pegs with register-activated code cards for games to give as gifts.

 

[etuev]

The discussion over Alan Wake 2's digital only release and a bunch of "digital only is the way of the future" discussion flaring up, I figured it was worth discussing when we think Nintendo could join that future, if ever. Nintendo is currently the last hold out in terms of offering a subscription service that lets you download current gen titles like PS+ or Gamepass, though they do offer the voucher program. Nintendo physical software still dominates the charts in Japan, though even there we saw Zelda TotK be almost 50:50 between physical and digital. We also saw them experiment with the Prime Remaster for a day 1 digital release and a "limited" print run later. As a big physical buyer I would hate to see Nintendo drop physical games, and I'll never say never, but I can't imagine Nintendo going all digital until at least the console after next. For the sake of the poll I went with Switch 2/3/4 just to keep it simple.

I think physical will always exist, but as more of a key/verification method and it will get less and less common/favoured as time goes on.

If they go all digital, I'm out. I don't like being at the mercy of someone else to access the entertainment that I paid my hard-earned money for.

Hate to be that guy but technically they already do with physical if you read the small print. Although de facto they don't, Nintendo has never reclaimed carts afaik lol. This is why sometimes I do think digital doesn't mesh as well with consoles as it does with PC. On PC you have multiple storefronts and keys and stuff like that, on Switch I can only buy from the expensive eShop, PS5 - the Playstation Store. If digital is to be fully adopted on consoles, they have to revise it since atm it really shafts the consumers. I suppose that's the downside of the walled garden approach of consoles.

 

[Rampo360]

Never (not in the foreseeable future)
Will happen when physical completely goes away.

 

[aus89]

Nintendo have way closer relationships with retail than Sony/Xbox etc... and sell toys and all that kinda stuff (want stuff on shelves for parents too who may not be terminally online like a lot of adult gamers) - absolutely not gonna happen

 

[Mekanos]

Not for at least a decade. Definitely at no point during the Switch 2’s lifespan.

 

[Dekuman]

Switch has a hardcore of physical collectors. The cartridges just seem way more appealing than discs on the XBONE/PS ecosystem where people have been conditioned to know view the discs are pretty much worthless, with, always online DRM and large day 1 installs for things that didn't make it onto the disc not to mention day 1 fixes. That's not to say Switch don't suffer from this, many games do have day 1 patches or some 3rd party games have large content patches not on the cartridge, but there's lots of indies and major releases that work off the cartridge no patching necessarily required and it's very appealing to some users to have the flexibility when they are out and about.

 

[MaitreWakou]

Being a toy company at first, I have the feeling they know the value of physical releases.
Obviously their physical releases sell very well, but I think they value it beyond just that. They like the idea of selling something that you can grab, that you can touch. Probably also like the idea of you going to a store and pick up your game.

 

[kasparov77]

To answer this we first need to acknowledge why Nintendo hasn't released a digital-only console to this day unlike both their competitors:
The main revenue from Nintendo comes from a pretty close to 50/50 split in digital and physical video game sales. Another considerable source of income is merch and the lower percentages belong to hardware sales and services.

With Microsoft however, the percentages are considerably different: their income through services is way higher and digital sales too.
But that's only analyzing the company (Microsoft) on tunnel-vision, Xbox is but a fraction of MS' business.

Sony also has multiple businesses outside of gaming and their physical x digital split iirc like Microsoft, also favors digital so it only made sense for them to release a digital-only console.

With the release of Switch 2, retro-compatibility included or not, judging the current percentages of physical x digital sales and the cost of cartridges x game pricing, I think Nintendo WILL keep physical for this upcoming generation. You also need to consider that the reason Nintendo has so much retail presence when it comes to games is a matter of availability, consumer convenience and convincing consumers to buy more: a parent/teen/adult gamer walks into a store, they could buy their kid/themselves a console and no games or a console and a gift card but why do that when you can buy the game right there and have it ready from the get go without having to wait for a download of a digital copy that costs the same? besides, they might not even know how to redeem a gift card if they're young/old enough.

By the way, the thing with 70$ 32GB+ game cartridges is that:
1- prices will eventually come down due to manufacturing demand
2- multiple 70$ third party titles will fail due to a lack of sales (third parties on switch already don't sell nearly as much than first party titles, let alone 70$ games) this will prompt for a reduce in manufacturing cost in order for companies to acquire 32GB+ carts for cheap and sell those games for 60$ or even 50.

Of course, this is wild speculation assuming the free market meme works (it almost never does). But in any case, just know that as long as physical sales are close to half of game sales on Nintendo, they won't try to cut it completely, maybe only split the generation in a physical and other digital-only console.