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Pre-Release The Super Mario Bros. Movie Pre-Release Discussion Thread (Now releasing April 5th in the US)

Final Worldwide Box Office Predictions

  • Less than $300 million (Absolute Flop)

    Votes: 2 1.6%
  • $300-450 million (in line with other video game adaptations)

    Votes: 4 3.2%
  • $450-700 million (best video game adaptation, in line with other recent animated films)

    Votes: 26 21.0%
  • $700 million-1 billion (higher tier for all but the biggest hits

    Votes: 43 34.7%
  • $1-1.3 billion (Top 10 highest grossing animated film of all time, Illumination’s biggest success)

    Votes: 34 27.4%
  • $1.3-1.6 billion (Frozen tier)

    Votes: 9 7.3%
  • 1.6 billion+ (unseats the Lion King remake as the most successful animated movie of all time)

    Votes: 6 4.8%

  • Total voters
    124
  • Poll closed .
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I'm not as high on the "It'll reach a billion, guaranteed." train as some people are.

But the opening looks like it'll be strong, and it doesn't have much in the way of direct competition in terms of animated movies.

WOM will be important too, but Illumination seen to be pretty good at marketing across that regardless.
There's not just no competition when it comes to animated movies, there's no competition in the entire month of April other than a horror movie. The closest big blockbuster is Guardians 3 in May.
 
I’m still unsure of the movie’s success. Trailers on Youtube haven’t done amazingly. More on Twitter though, but we’ll see. It is well positioned so it should work out. 70-100 million opening is early estimates and it is possible to change.
If anything, I expect the estimates to either remain constant or rise. Excitement is all around the air for this and something has to go wrong at this point(which to be fair is possible tho). Also I don't agree with the notion of the trailers not doing amazingly. You have to remember that the views are split between Illumination, Nintendo, and Universal. It's not like the Sonic movies where practically all of the trailer views are from Paramount Pictures because that's the only place on YouTube you'll see them.
 
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The directors said that 3D World was a big influence on the film's depiction of Peach and one of the earlier trailers more or less lampshades that the Mushroom Kingdom's "forces" are pretty ineffectual, so it's understandable that she'd want Mario's help. Usually my problem with films doing this type of angle -- The Lego Movie and Ant-Man being the guiltiest offenders to immediately come to mind -- is that the woman lead's entire arc is typically about being robbed of the "special chosen one" role (even if you can argue The Lego Movie is deconstructing the whole chosen one trope), but the impression I'm getting from this film so far is less that Peach's competency is downplayed by the plot and more that she's seeking out people who are capable of fighting alongside her. So far it'd seem like Captain Toad and Mario have been the only ones up to task, and that their Jungle Kingdom voyage is there to similarly recruit the Kong clan who are probably the most competent fighters of the bunch.

But yeah I'm not ruling out that she'll be need to be bailed out in the end since we see a lot of clips of her being the only one going up against Bowser's invading fortress. It'd also be lifted straight out of Super Mario Bros. 3, where she's an active ally to the story before the game does the twist that Bowser used the diversion of the main plot to invade the Mushroom Kingdom and kidnap her.

I have that same problem too. It's just that lack of pay off for the set up of the strong female lead that she still gets upstaged in the end. At the least Peach looks like she is playing a diplomatic role too, which is still active and something she didn't need Mario for.

I do hope that whenever Daisy and Rosalina show up in future movies we can really see Peach flourish more outside of that "immediate distress" role needing to play support to Mario.
 
Fire Flower Peach and Biker Peach they're referencing from 3D World and MK8 both have ponytails

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NOBODY CARES
 
Yeah a big children's movie is going to go all out on marketing and showing tons of things to as many people as possible. It really doesn't suit the core gaming culture of following everything up to the release. Personally I don't mind seeing a lot so I'm good.
 
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How much of the movie are they using jeez. Hopefully they keep some surprises.
Not everyone is like us and sees all these trailers compiled into one place. Your average person sees the main big trailer and occasionally spots extra tv spots in the wild.
 
I think we're repeatedly seeing the same few four or five moments of the movie, without much context.. the trailers are fine.

We barely seen anything of the Brooklyn opening, nothing of Foreman Spike, [REDACTED], barely anything of Cranky or Kamek.

Are the supporting Kong Family members more than just a cameo in the background? Are they going to have any lines? Name-dropped, at least?

Yoshi's Island was briefly shown, yet, no (green) Yoshi.. Is the desert in the map Sarasaland? Why Lumalee is there?

Nothing of the final confrontation against Bowser either and how the Mario Bros. are finally getting together

Lots to see still..
 
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That definitely bodes well if that's a conservative figure.

Intrigued to see how it'll do internationally, particularly in Japan.
 
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Official tracking is up at $85-90M+ debut for the 5-day week. Looks to be a promising number considering this seems to be the floor/a conservative estimate.


Deadline is way lowballing. In general, it's been super off with tracking lately. Box Office Pro is much more reliable on that front.

With current presales, there's almost no way it opens with only $90m over the 5 days. At worst, that will be the 3-day number.
 
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Who’s doing the score? Is Kondo assisting?
Brian Taylor with Kondo doing some arrangements

Official tracking is up at $85-90M+ debut for the 5-day week. Looks to be a promising number considering this seems to be the floor/a conservative estimate.


walk-ins are gonna blow this number up. family movies, like games, can't be completely judged by preorders


I can't help but think Luigi is the b-plot and it's essentially Luigi's Mansion but in Bowser's Castle
 
lmao already people on other sites are already saying this is proof that this will bomb because apparently the Super Mario Bros movie needs to sell Endgame numbers for this to be "profitable".
If they think it needs endgame numbers to be profitable, then they don't know Illumination's budgets.
 
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More footage of Mario and Luigi being transported in the warp zone at the start of the movie in an interview with Chris Pratt and Charlie Day on BBC's The One Show (2:52).

At the start of this video, the host of the interview says 'I went to see it this afternoon' so I guess that confirms that members of the press have now watched the movie.
 
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lmao already people on other sites are already saying this is proof that this will bomb because apparently the Super Mario Bros movie needs to sell Endgame numbers for this to be "profitable".
What? This isn't Avatar. If anything, the theme park lands have already covered the licensing and production expenses.
 
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85-90 is good but with how big the marketing is, a Wednesday through Sunday opening on easter... i really hope it is in the 100s. 85 would be disappointing tbh.
WW, the movie should be pretty big though. Nintendo and Illumination have global appeal.

Box office pro updates their predictions on fridays. So we'll see what theirs is tomorrow.
 
85-90 is good but with how big the marketing is, a Wednesday through Sunday opening on easter... i really hope it is in the 100s. 85 would be disappointing tbh.
WW, the movie should be pretty big though. Nintendo and Illumination have global appeal.

Box office pro updates their predictions on fridays. So we'll see what theirs is tomorrow.
Like some others have said, I also think they're lowballing this. They did say that this was more on the conservative side tho.
 
Brian Taylor with Kondo doing some arrangements


walk-ins are gonna blow this number up. family movies, like games, can't be completely judged by preorders.
And even then, pre-sales already point to a much bigger opening.

More footage of Mario and Luigi being transported in the warp zone at the start of the movie in an interview with Chris Pratt and Charlie Day on BBC's The One Show (2:52).

Looks great. When they're holding hands it almost gives off a Superstar Saga vibe.

lmao already people on other sites are already saying this is proof that this will bomb because apparently the Super Mario Bros movie needs to sell Endgame numbers for this to be "profitable".
Oh lord. Illumination are notorious for being able to make movies cheap (although this probably has their highest budget yet), plus the movie is going to be one of the top grossing of the year. People are so dumb.
 
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Well I did it yall

I bought tickets to The Super Mario Bros Super Show Movie

in IMAX.

The Rainbow Road sequence better be damn good, because that's the only reason I did it.
 
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