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Sales Data Switch hits 111.08 million shipped as of 30th June

JoshuaJSlone

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I am talking about the switch family of systems, because that would be what would outsell the PS2, not just one or 2 models
I know this. I am using what the OLED has done to the earlier models as analogy for what Drake will do to all "Switch 1" models. If we consider Drake part of the "Switch family of systems", it mostly becomes pointless to wonder whether it will reach PS2, because it would take a Wii U level disaster to not get there.
Why do you assume the drop for the Switch is gonna be similar to the Wii? You really don't think it'll have a gradual fall instead?
It's hard to find historical examples for very gradual declines other than PS2, where Sony released a successor that cost 4-5x as much. Even back when they were pretending DS was a third pillar, its first year saw GBA numbers halve, and then halve again the next year.
 
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Switch may be down from its beast years of 2020 and 2021, but year-to-date it is still ahead of 2019, it's highest pre-pandemic year, by 7.54 million over 4.6 million.

2019 had a massive back half due to the Lite + Pokemon, but 2022's lead so far could provide enough of a buffer that Switch's 6th year ends up ahead of its 3rd, which would be bananas.
 

meatbag

Koopa
It's hard to find historical examples for very gradual declines other than PS2, where Sony released a successor that cost 4-5x as much. Even back when they were pretending DS was a third pillar, its first year saw GBA numbers halve, and then halve again the next year.
Well that’s clearly not the pattern of decline of the Switch so far
 

Zalman

Stuck on a different planet
Switch should be at around 125 million by the end of this calendar year. They tend to sell approximately 20 million units a year. So if that keeps up, by the end of 2023 we could be looking at 145 million. Obviously 2023 is still a big question mark when it comes to software pipeline, hardware plans etc.
 

Ahmed

Bob-omb
Yes, the Switch has not started the pattern of decline that happens with a successor, because that point has not been reached.
I agree. Nintendo should be cautious about the sales decline. While the current decline is normal, they need to be prepared for what comes next. Despite the OLED launching last year, all it could do was soften the decline. For a system that will need to sell for 10 years (though I think that is including the successor already being on the market by then), it probably can't keep selling that long.

Software has been down as well in Q1, which I think isn't normal? Correct me if I'm wrong. Though I think that's just because buying habits of people aren't that crazy since there is no lockdown.
 

davec00ke

Tektite
I agree. Nintendo should be cautious about the sales decline. While the current decline is normal, they need to be prepared for what comes next. Despite the OLED launching last year, all it could do was soften the decline. For a system that will need to sell for 10 years (though I think that is including the successor already being on the market by then), it probably can't keep selling that long.

Software has been down as well in Q1, which I think isn't normal? Correct me if I'm wrong. Though I think that's just because buying habits of people aren't that crazy since there is no lockdown.
The Switch and Software is selling fine, the Covid Boom was just unsustainable and new hardware won't change that.
 

JoshuaJSlone

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Software has been down as well in Q1, which I think isn't normal? Correct me if I'm wrong.
Switch is doing pretty well for its age here, I think. Most Nintendo systems' software peaked earlier. Game Boy with its Pokémon renaissance is probably an exception, but hard to come by many solid numbers before the late 90s so hard to prove it.

PS4 there's less data shown here and they start mixing it with PS5 which ends the data early. Kind of looks like it just passed its peak at about the age Switch is now, then COVID boost kicked it up again.
pTlJsU6.png
 
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Watching investors and associated sites reporting Switch's decline from 2020/2021 as some kind of cause for alarm or failure is hilarious. If you're going to invest in a market, you should at least put in the bare minimum of effort into understanding it.

A console being passed its peak in its 6th year is almost a universal rule. Did they also freak out when the PS4 was trending down in 2019?

Switch is actually showing remarkably robust legs, more so than nearly any other Nintendo system ever.
 

bixente

Bob-omb
Yes the Switch in it's sixth year is showing better sales compared to the first few years on market in Japan (2017, 18, 19 I think).
 

Skittzo

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To be honest, a console selling this much worldwide in its 6th year is almost unreal and I think unpredenced?
DS I believe had a similar curve since it got a second wind from the DSi launch.

But yeah that should kinda tell you everything you need to know.
 

JoshuaJSlone

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Yes the Switch in it's sixth year is showing better sales compared to the first few years on market in Japan (2017, 18, 19 I think).
Yep, the last year for Switch in Japan are both the worst 4 consecutive quarters since 2020 began, and also better than anything pre-2020. The other regions are only slightly different, with early 2020 being slightly below the most recent numbers.
qWvRZr0.png
 

Blue Monty

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Yep, the last year for Switch in Japan are both the worst 4 consecutive quarters since 2020 began, and also better than anything pre-2020. The other regions are only slightly different, with early 2020 being slightly below the most recent numbers.
qWvRZr0.png
Japan has probably had the worst stock issues of any big region, retailers are even increasing the price of the regular Switch and OLED stock is what tends to dictate sales numbers they sell all they ship. Would be interesting to see Switch sales in Japan without stock issues, it has had them during almost all it’s lifespan
 

Kingpin Rogers

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I know sales numbers are still interesting for a lot of people but the more successful the Switch has become the more boring I've found them haha. I was always invested in the Wii U's numbers but I think that was probably just cause it was a massive flop and had some discussion around it that I found interesting. Now that the Switch is a huge success I don't really care how well it does anymore. Long gone are the days I was checking media create each week to see how many units the Wii U had sold that week.
 

thoughthaver

Shriekbat
I know sales numbers are still interesting for a lot of people but the more successful the Switch has become the more boring I've found them haha. I was always invested in the Wii U's numbers but I think that was probably just cause it was a massive flop and had some discussion around it that I found interesting. Now that the Switch is a huge success I don't really care how well it does anymore. Long gone are the days I was checking media create each week to see how many units the Wii U had sold that week.
the real fun now is watching some of the palpable seething over the switch's success
 

Cucufate

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the real fun now is watching some of the palpable seething over the switch's success
Ooooh, yeah, that has given the world some great displays of mental gymnastics so far:

"It's a handheld, so it doesn't count!"

"It replaced both Nintendo's handheld and home console lines, which means that until it makes Wii+DS numbers it isn't actually that much of a success."

"It needs to sell at least twice as much to compensate for the Wii U's failure."

And who knows what else has been said/written about it.
 
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Blue Monty

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I know sales numbers are still interesting for a lot of people but the more successful the Switch has become the more boring I've found them haha. I was always invested in the Wii U's numbers but I think that was probably just cause it was a massive flop and had some discussion around it that I found interesting. Now that the Switch is a huge success I don't really care how well it does anymore. Long gone are the days I was checking media create each week to see how many units the Wii U had sold that week.
This is the first time ever that all major platform holders are having great results at the same time at least worldwide. There isn’t a WiiU/PS3/XboxOne to ‘laugh’ anymore
 
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Yeah I feel like after the Wii U, a lot of folks got their hopes up that Nintendo would go third party, so the Switch becoming a massive success and burying that idea really stung for them.

At first they tried to claim that it would be incredibly front loaded because of all the Nintendo fans buying it right away and that sales would "fall off a cliff" once the hardcore fanbase represented by the Wii U were all accounted for.

When that didn't happen, they moved the goalposts to "it's replacing the Wii U and the 3DS, so it's not a success unless it outsells them both combined".

When the Switch subsequently blew passed that milestone and continues rocketing on to this day with no end in sight, they then started pushing the idea that it would be or needed to be replaced ASAP, as a way of cutting short its sales before it passes the PS4 and makes them look even sillier.

It was the same in the Wii days, every time the sales charts came out showing it was trouncing the PS3 there was so much salt.
 

Kartina

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Yeah I feel like after the Wii U, a lot of folks got their hopes up that Nintendo would go third party, so the Switch becoming a massive success and burying that idea really stung for them.

At first they tried to claim that it would be incredibly front loaded because of all the Nintendo fans buying it right away and that sales would "fall off a cliff" once the hardcore fanbase represented by the Wii U were all accounted for.

When that didn't happen, they moved the goalposts to "it's replacing the Wii U and the 3DS, so it's not a success unless it outsells them both combined".

When the Switch subsequently blew passed that milestone and continues rocketing on to this day with no end in sight, they then started pushing the idea that it would be or needed to be replaced ASAP, as a way of cutting short its sales before it passes the PS4 and makes them look even sillier.

It was the same in the Wii days, every time the sales charts came out showing it was trouncing the PS3 there was so much salt.
Any minute now switch sales are going to fall of a cliff like the wii and nintendo will have another wiiu situation, the switch is just a fad.
Btw, I remember some insane tales like Nintendo blew their load early with zelda and mario so everyone who wanted the console already bought it and it's not going to sell anymore and also nobody is going to buy the switch for smash bros because it sells to only Nintendo fans and if you are a nintendo fan you already bought the switch the first year.
 

Blue Monty

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Any minute now switch sales are going to fall of a cliff like the wii and nintendo will have another wiiu situation, the switch is just a fad.
Btw, I remember some insane tales like Nintendo blew their load early with zelda and mario so everyone who wanted the console already bought it and it's not going to sell anymore and also nobody is going to buy the switch for smash bros because it sells to only Nintendo fans and if you are a nintendo fan you already bought the switch the first year.
Most bad faith discussion about sales (which comes from all sides) just makes me roll my eyes so much, lately with Nintendo I haven’t seen anything really bad other than people saying it will be Wii U 2 again when they launch new hardware or people acting like Switch only sells because it has stock but I see it all the time in Sony case of them being done and having no future lol

Sales talk always sadly ends up bringing fanboys of all companies trying to see other companies fail
 

Kartina

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Most bad faith discussion about sales (which comes from all sides) just makes me roll my eyes so much, lately with Nintendo I haven’t seen anything really bad other than people saying it will be Wii U 2 again when they launch new hardware or people acting like Switch only sells because it has stock but I see it all the time in Sony case of them being done and having no future lol

Sales talk always sadly ends up bringing fanboys of all companies trying to see other companies fail
Yeah they're hilarious, or at least I find them really funny when they try to warp reality to meet their agenda.
Or where I see people who still think switch won't outsell ps4 or in the past that switch won't sell over 100 mil units when it was at like 70 mil.
Tons of mental gymnastics.
 

Mekanos

Let's Henshin!
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It would be nice if Nintendo can continue their success since most of the time there is a sharp drop off in the next follow up. But as long as they stick to "Switch but stronger" for the successor, I have to imagine they will be fine.
 

meatbag

Koopa
Yeah honestly the bad faith discussions about sales have largely dwindled as the Switch breaks past each milestone. Even on uhhh more fanboyish sites, they’ve mostly just stopped talking about the Switch at all.
 

Blue Monty

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It would be nice if Nintendo can continue their success since most of the time there is a sharp drop off in the next follow up. But as long as they stick to "Switch but stronger" for the successor, I have to imagine they will be fine.
Nintendo portable line is the most consistent in the videogame industry and Switch has been able to build from such audience and expand it. A 3DS situation can happen again but not a WiiU one especially in Japan where Nintendo basically owns 90% of the million sellers
 

Clix

Chain Chomp
Any minute now switch sales are going to fall of a cliff like the wii and nintendo will have another wiiu situation, the switch is just a fad.
Btw, I remember some insane tales like Nintendo blew their load early with zelda and mario so everyone who wanted the console already bought it and it's not going to sell anymore and also nobody is going to buy the switch for smash bros because it sells to only Nintendo fans and if you are a nintendo fan you already bought the switch the first year.
Even worse sometimes. I saw way too many people wanting a Pro or New device
within 2 years of release. When had that happened in the console space, like, ever. I hate those arguments. Just get a PC if that’s what you want. Upgrade twice a year. Bam.
 

thoughthaver

Shriekbat
Yeah they're hilarious, or at least I find them really funny when they try to warp reality to meet their agenda.
Or where I see people who still think switch won't outsell ps4 or in the past that switch won't sell over 100 mil units when it was at like 70 mil.
Tons of mental gymnastics.
the xbox series s being a switch killer because its the exact same price was lowkey one of the funniest ones. like talk about missing the forest for the trees.
Sales talk always sadly ends up bringing fanboys of all companies trying to see other companies fail
BU8wB7CCEAAickX.jpg
 

Aggrocrog

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I know sales numbers are still interesting for a lot of people but the more successful the Switch has become the more boring I've found them haha. I was always invested in the Wii U's numbers but I think that was probably just cause it was a massive flop and had some discussion around it that I found interesting. Now that the Switch is a huge success I don't really care how well it does anymore. Long gone are the days I was checking media create each week to see how many units the Wii U had sold that week.
This pretty much describes my experience. I was sold on the Switch from jump, but I started following Media Create threads bc I wanted to know if it was selling well enough to get any 3rd party support and if Nintendo would be able to rebound after the Wii U.

Early on, those threads were super fascinating bc there was a time when it was regularly discussed if the Switch could handle Rocket League and Fortnite (let alone Doom 2016, Overwatch, and the Witcher 3). It's hard to pinpoint when exactly, but somewhere between Smash Ultimate and Pokemon SwSh was when I realized the "success" conversation became moot. The sales numbers were still interesting from a curiosity perspective, but they lost the air of desperation that drove me to them in the first place.
 

JoshuaJSlone

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Even worse sometimes. I saw way too many people wanting a Pro or New device
within 2 years of release. When had that happened in the console space, like, ever. I hate those arguments. Just get a PC if that’s what you want. Upgrade twice a year. Bam.
New 3DS and PS4 Pro were in the 3.5-4 year range. Early 2019's mixup of reports about what Mariko would be just made people expect something slightly sooner.
 

Clix

Chain Chomp
New 3DS and PS4 Pro were in the 3.5-4 year range. Early 2019's mixup of reports about what Mariko would be just made people expect something slightly sooner.

Those are exceptions but not the norm. The New 3DS was nice but I would not qualify that as a pro version, since there was no real clear benefit except for a couple of games. It pretty much replaced the OG 3DS. It’s only real boost was SNES games really.

But an entire new device after only 2 years? That’s crazy.
 

Clix

Chain Chomp
There's not really much more history for mid-gen spec improvements. There's those two, One X, and DSi pretty much.
And the Nintendo ones I don’t really count because they served a very specific purpose. One with DSiWare and internet, the other SNES games and a few ports of console games that were exclusive to it, and better framerate for “some games” like Pokémon.

While the PS4 Pro was amped up on all levels, benefiting almost everything either through patches or boost mode.

On paper, you look at the internals of the N3DS and it is quite a hefty boost of everything. It was substancial, but it wasn’t used for anything except a couple of games because it would cut of the player base.

To me it was either going to be Switch 2 or bust eventually after a normal life cycle.
 
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It's been a wild ride following the Switch's meteoric ascent, and I personally still find it interesting seeing just how high it can fly.

At launch, a lot of people predicted it would be another Wii U, and the idea of it outselling the Wii seemed like a pipe dream.
Now it's on track to become, at the least, the third highest selling system of all time, toppling not just the Wii but also the PS1, and soon the PS4 and Gameboy.

I love a good comeback story, and this is one for the ages; Nintendo rising like a phoenix from the ashes of the Wii U and going from their lowest selling console and handheld to what will almost certainly be their second highest, or possibly even their highest selling system ever.

It just goes to show, never count out Nintendo. You never know what the future may hold.
 


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