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Sales Data Switch hits 111.08 million shipped as of 30th June

MisterSpo

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I wouldn't get too attached to tie ratio in an era of thousands of digital only titles which aren't counted, plus subscriptions and DLC. For Nintendo, the key metrics will be profit and annual playing users (which they referred to again this quarter - 104 million, up from 100 million a few months ago).
 

Blue Monty

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At this point people are just latching on to anything that makes the release of Switch 2 likelier

Never mind the fact that console makers don't really base their hardware release plans on "momentum"
I mean I think it will happen soonish by hardware standards but people should learn that Drake was planned 2019/2020, the sales in the recent months of Switch hw sales don’t affect Nintendo hardware schedule.
 

Starphanluke

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This all is still quite good. In line with what you'd expect with the chip shortage/life cycle of the hardware.
 

Michie

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I disagree. I could walk in in a Media Markt this weekend and buy an OLED model without any hassle. There were at least 12-15 machines comfortably displayed on the shelves.
Might be a country thing. Here in the Netherlands it's also extremely easy to buy a switch OLED. But that might be different in the USA
 

JazzPotatoes

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Hm, has there been anything about an attachment ratio going down? I’ve only seen them go up.
When a console launches early on, it tends to be the more diehard audience that pick it up.

If you want evidence of this, look at the Vita: Absolutely woeful hardware sales numbers, but the attach ratio was surprisingly high because the people who bought a Vita really liked Vita games. Even the Wii U managed an attach rate of 6.9 - Again, not many people bought one, but the people who did really liked Nintendo games.

Overall you will still see attach rates go up on more popular consoles because there are enough 'core' gamers buying entries in different franchises, but my point is that the 'casual core' gamer is a real phenomenon. There is an entire market of gamer who doesn't care about Mario, Last of Us or Forza, and just wants to buy a console so they can buy FIFA or COD once a year.
 

Clix

Chain Chomp
I disagree. I could walk in in a Media Markt this weekend and buy an OLED model without any hassle. There were at least 12-15 machines comfortably displayed on the shelves.

That is just anecdotal. I have not seen that here in my part of the U.S. since before Covid with the exception of the Lite. Target and Best Buy seem to never have the OLED or OG, but they have the pink Switch Lite.
 

Eärendilus

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Switch is running on fumes, better release a successor while the brand is still hot, to avoid a Wii HD situation.
 

Pflaumenmus12

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"Oh the Switch just had the third best quarter in its lifetime 5 years after being launched....great result amidst rising inflation and continued chip shortages"

some folks

nintendo-doomed.gif
 
Probably Switch will beat them both within this calendar year
It will. It’s missing like 7-8M.

Next quarter I postulate it’ll do around 3M, so that’s now 4-5M left.

Holiday quarter they can clear >9M no issue I feel, especially considering the past years. But let’s assume 8.3M for convo sake of it.

So, by the end of the calendar year, it would be at 122.38M units sold.

When a console launches early on, it tends to be the more diehard audience that pick it up.

If you want evidence of this, look at the Vita: Absolutely woeful hardware sales numbers, but the attach ratio was surprisingly high because the people who bought a Vita really liked Vita games. Even the Wii U managed an attach rate of 6.9 - Again, not many people bought one, but the people who did really liked Nintendo games.

Overall you will still see attach rates go up on more popular consoles because there are enough 'core' gamers buying entries in different franchises, but my point is that the 'casual core' gamer is a real phenomenon. There is an entire market of gamer who doesn't care about Mario, Last of Us or Forza, and just wants to buy a console so they can buy FIFA or COD once a year.
I get that, however I’ve never seen a console ratio go down, that’s why I’m asking if there’s ever been an example of them actually going down. So far all have maintained or gone up as hardware starts to plateau much earlier than software, and software slows down over the course of quite a while and does not follow the same sales curve as hardware. Software peaking after a hardware peak, whenever that is.

The PS4 is a good example of this, where the hardware has slowed down a long while ago but the software has not slowed down at the same pace and it has actually cause its ratio to go up instead of down.

Or the PS3 which has a few people buying software for it. Even now.

I suppose what you are saying only really is applicable to the PS2 and the Wii?
 

Lozjam

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Switch would have to absolutely shit itself to not hit 150 million at this point.

Even with no revision, the Switch is going to keep selling for at least the next 3 years. Even if a next gen Nintendo system comes out.

So, it's forecasted that the Switch will probably reach around 120 million by the end of the calendar year. That means, if the Switch does a relatively paltry 10 million units a year for the next 3 years(that's like, Wii U numbers) , it will clear 150 million in a heartbeat. And that's likely still without a price cut too. If they were to get Switch Lite down to 130-150, and the regular Switch at 250, and were able to figure out supply chain stuff. Switch would rocket past everything else.
 
Switch would have to absolutely shit itself to not hit 150 million at this point.

Even with no revision, the Switch is going to keep selling for at least the next 3 years. Even if a next gen Nintendo system comes out.

So, it's forecasted that the Switch will probably reach around 120 million by the end of the calendar year. That means, if the Switch does a relatively paltry 10 million units a year for the next 3 years(that's like, Wii U numbers) , it will clear 150 million in a heartbeat. And that's likely still without a price cut too. If they were to get Switch Lite down to 130-150, and the regular Switch at 250, and were able to figure out supply chain stuff. Switch would rocket past everything else.
The big issue to solve is the supply chain. Once that is cleared then Switch should have really great momentum without a price cut. If I’m Nintendo there is no need for one, especially if it digs into profits. I also would say that the price cut wouldn’t really do much more currently if supply cannot keep up with demand.
 

JoshuaJSlone

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OLED taking a piece of the pie is slowing original model Switch from becoming the worldwide top individual hardware model.

N1BwbuA.png
 

JoshuaJSlone

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So, it's forecasted that the Switch will probably reach around 120 million by the end of the calendar year. That means, if the Switch does a relatively paltry 10 million units a year for the next 3 years(that's like, Wii U numbers) , it will clear 150 million in a heartbeat. And that's likely still without a price cut too. If they were to get Switch Lite down to 130-150, and the regular Switch at 250, and were able to figure out supply chain stuff. Switch would rocket past everything else.
Wii U only got to about 4 million in a single year. 150 million is still a big ask. We'll probably see Drake within the next year, and unless it's unequivocally considered part of these same numbers (at which point we start talking about 200+ million), the old models will surely drop fast. Through 22 quarters, Switch is at about 86% of DS. If that continued, it would cruise to a stop around 133m. I think it's unlikely to stop quite so soon, but it's still a long way to 150.
 
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If the switch is still selling like this in 2025, the system is surpassing the PS2. It all depends on if there's a massive decline in sales before then, if there isn't then the PS2 is beat.
 
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Wii U only got to about 4 million in a single year. 150 million is still a big ask. We'll probably see Drake within the next year, and unless it's unequivocally considered part of these same numbers (at which point we start talking about 200+ million), the old models will surely drop fast. Through 22 quarters, Switch is at about 86% of DS. If that continued, it would cruise to a stop around 133m. I think it's unlikely to stop quite so soon, but it's still a long way to 150.
If Nintendo's forecast is hit then that's 128 million switches by March 31st 2023, if the forecast until March 31st 2024 is 17-19 Million then that's 145 million switches. All it needs then is another 11-12 million switches sold and its number 1.
 

Skittzo

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If the switch is still selling like this in 2025, the system is surpassing the PS2. It all depends on if there's a massive decline in sales before then, if there isn't then the PS2 is beat.
If it's still selling like this (20+M a year) it'll obviously outsell the PS2 before 2025 since at the moment it's only about 45M behind.
 

JoshuaJSlone

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If Nintendo's forecast is hit then that's 128 million switches by March 31st 2023, if the forecast until March 31st 2024 is 17-19 Million then that's 145 million switches. All it needs then is another 11-12 million switches sold and its number 1.
Yes. I just don't think those are very likely numbers. In consecutive fiscal years DS went from 27 to (3DS releases) 18 to 5 to 2 million. PS4 from 19 to 18 to (PS5 releases) 14 to 6. Wii from 21 to 15 to 10 to (Wii U releases) 4. When the drop comes, the drop comes in a big way. Unless you're the PS2. Without overthinking it, I'd guess the next couple years for the current models (past March 2023) closer to 10 and 5 million than your proposal.
 
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Yes. I just don't think those are very likely numbers. In consecutive fiscal years DS went from 27 to (3DS releases) 18 to 5 to 2 million. PS4 from 19 to 18 to (PS5 releases) 14 to 6. Wii from 21 to 15 to 10 to (Wii U releases) 4. When the drop comes, the drop comes in a big way. Unless you're the PS2. Without overthinking it, I'd guess the next couple years for the current models (past March 2023) closer to 10 and 5 million than your proposal.
I just don't see demand just vanishing that quickly in the next few years.
 

Stinkmeiser45

Piranha Plant
I just don't see demand just vanishing that quickly in the next few years.
Demand is definitely gonna drop rapidly because there's gonna be two effects happening at the same time
-Saturation of the market, from simply selling to most potential customers
-OLED sales dying down because most people don't want to buy a second switch
I really, really don't believe they can make their target this year, but we'll see if they can prove me wrong.
 
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Demand is definitely gonna drop rapidly because there's gonna be two effects happening at the same time
-Saturation of the market, from simply selling to most potential customers
-OLED sales dying down because most people don't want to buy a second switch
I really, really don't believe they can make their target this year, but we'll see if they can prove me wrong.
Let's say they cut the price of the switch family by 100$ so, the switch lite becomes 99.99$, switch becomes 199.99$ and switch oled becomes $249.99, would that change how you feel?
 

RaymondBryce

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Demand is definitely gonna drop rapidly because there's gonna be two effects happening at the same time
-Saturation of the market, from simply selling to most potential customers
-OLED sales dying down because most people don't want to buy a second switch
I really, really don't believe they can make their target this year, but we'll see if they can prove me wrong.
Wouldn't those factors result in slow declines rather than huge declines?

The main thing which could cause a huge decline is the release of a full successor.
 

Stinkmeiser45

Piranha Plant
Let's say they cut the price of the switch family by 100$ so, the switch lite becomes 99.99$, switch becomes 199.99$ and switch oled becomes $249.99, would that change how you feel?
Of course, but I don't see them doing that. Frankly speaking I don't understand the obsession people here have with a 10 year lifespan. If they're cutting the profit margin so much to keep sales flowing, why not just release new hardware and start building up your next install base?
 

Stupid Sexy Flanders

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Looking at the home console sales numbers the Wii at 100m is such an outlier.

They had the NES with roughly 60 million, SNES with 50, N64 with 30, GameCube with 20, and Wii U with 10. Every generation was selling 10+ million less than the previous. Following that, the home console after the Wii U would sell roughly 0 million unless they had another Wii-like miracle.

so it’s pretty clear they either had to make the home console portable or just abandon home consoles entirely. I’m glad they went this way.
 

Raccoon

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Of course, but I don't see them doing that. Frankly speaking I don't understand the obsession people here have with a 10 year lifespan. If they're cutting the profit margin so much to keep sales flowing, why not just release new hardware and start building up your next install base?
because they're in a unique position to expand the future viability of good, smaller IP with a huge and continually active install base. starting from zero means a lot of lost opportunity for Nintendo fans
 
Of course, but I don't see them doing that. Frankly speaking I don't understand the obsession people here have with a 10 year lifespan. If they're cutting the profit margin so much to keep sales flowing, why not just release new hardware and start building up your next install base?
The only reason to prolong the Switch against newer hardware is the same reason why PS4 is still around even though PS5 is out. This would be a supply chain problem which Nintendo has pointed to a few times already throughout the year. This would also be the reason why they may not be able to hit their target instead of the other reasons given.
Looking at the home console sales numbers the Wii at 100m is such an outlier.

They had the NES with roughly 60 million, SNES with 50, N64 with 30, GameCube with 20, and Wii U with 10. Every generation was selling 10+ million less than the previous. Following that, the home console after the Wii U would sell roughly 0 million unless they had another Wii-like miracle.

so it’s pretty clear they either had to make the home console portable or just abandon home consoles entirely. I’m glad they went this way.
I just don’t agree with either of the bolded. It makes it seem like the Wii was a complete fluke & also just assumes the next console was going to completely fail no matter what. The Wii & (S)NES we’re about the only desirable home console products Nintendo made. The other three were highly flawed in either hardware, software, or philosophical/management decisions or a combination. Is it really a wonder they struggled & sol less with those devices.
 
OP
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curl-6

curl-6

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I genuinely can't tell if some of the comments here are satire or not.

The system is in its 6th year, and is still tracking to outsell the PS4's peak. It has crushed every Q1 it has had prior to 2020. And all this with supply constraints, and the likes of Splatoon 3 and open world Pokemon coming in the next few months.

It still had plenty of gas in the tank and is selling like sunscreen at a nudist colony in the Sahara.
 

Skittzo

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Demand is definitely gonna drop rapidly because there's gonna be two effects happening at the same time
-Saturation of the market, from simply selling to most potential customers
-OLED sales dying down because most people don't want to buy a second switch
I really, really don't believe they can make their target this year, but we'll see if they can prove me wrong.
This is not at all backed up by actual historical models though. As we're seeing globally demand is still far above pre-2020 levels (they sold 20M+ in 2019) and in some areas demand is still even outstripping supply.

Saturation and OLED sales slowing down because most people don't want another switch (which is another way of saying saturation tbh) don't cause sharp declines like you seem to be expecting, they cause very gradual ones, which we're currently seeing.
 

JoshuaJSlone

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Let's say they cut the price of the switch family by 100$ so, the switch lite becomes 99.99$, switch becomes 199.99$ and switch oled becomes $249.99, would that change how you feel?
Current models becoming viable budget options is why I think it won't cruise to that 133m end as if it were imitating DS. But I don't think it keeps them at 10+m annually when Drake has been out a year or two. It'd be exciting to be wrong in this, though, and see another system with a PS2-like tail without the "it's a cheap DVD player" thing pushing it.
 

Stupid Sexy Flanders

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I just don’t agree with either of the bolded. It makes it seem like the Wii was a complete fluke & also just assumes the next console was going to completely fail no matter what. The Wii & (S)NES we’re about the only desirable home console products Nintendo made. The other three were highly flawed in either hardware, software, or philosophical/management decisions or a combination. Is it really a wonder they struggled & sol less with those devices.
I didn’t say it was a complete fluke, I said it was an outlier. Imagine you're running Nintendo, you're making great games but every generation of home console sells less than the one before it. The trend is going in the wrong direction, and below some number, it doesn't make sense to keep making consoles. The Wii changed strategies and it paid off big time. But the trend didn't last. They tried to build on Wii with Wii U, but that sold even less than the GameCube. I don't think you keep making home-only consoles after Wii U, praying that lightning strikes twice.

All the while, handhelds are still selling strong. There were some ups and downs, but even the worst-selling handheld (3DS at 75m) outsold the best-selling console (NES at 62m).

My point is that they saw where their home console market was going, where their handheld market was, and made a smart move to build a higher-end handheld that could get home console games, handheld games, plus attract indies and regain some 3rd party support.
 
I didn’t say it was a complete fluke, I said it was an outlier. Imagine you're running Nintendo, you're making great games but every generation of home console sells less than the one before it. The trend is going in the wrong direction, and below some number, it doesn't make sense to keep making consoles. The Wii changed strategies and it paid off big time. But the trend didn't last. They tried to build on Wii with Wii U, but that sold even less than the GameCube. I don't think you keep making home-only consoles after Wii U, praying that lightning strikes twice.

All the while, handhelds are still selling strong. There were some ups and downs, but even the worst-selling handheld (3DS at 75m) outsold the best-selling console (NES at 62m).

My point is that they saw where their home console market was going, where their handheld market was, and made a smart move to build a higher-end handheld that could get home console games, handheld games, plus attract indies and regain some 3rd party support.
I still really don’t agree with this assessment since it just assumes that Nintendo home consoles sell less just because. Wii also wasn’t an outlier because as I said before; they struggled & sold less because each device had multiple major flaws making them undesirable for most audiences. Again is it any wonder why 3/4 consoles saw decline. The only way WiiU could have built upon the Wii is by scrapping it completely & being a different device. And, they did strike lightning twice it’s name is Switch which would be the second “outlier.”

Nintendo didn’t just make a device that could “get home console games” they made a “home console that you can take with you.” That’s how they describe this machine. The pivot wasn’t because of low sales but because they couldn’t buoy two devices at the same time anymore.
 

hologram

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Hey @curl-6 it would be helpful to include additional information (e.g. quarterly sales, comparison to the same quarter last year etc) in the OP for this kind of thread
 

Stupid Sexy Flanders

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I still really don’t agree with this assessment since it just assumes that Nintendo home consoles sell less just because.

I'm observing the numbers on their site. They go down. The only assumption I'm making is that Nintendo probably wanted them to go up - or not go down as much. They tried, but after several generations, decided to make a big change - merging console and handheld.

Wii also wasn’t an outlier because as I said before; they struggled & sold less because each device had multiple major flaws making them undesirable for most audiences. Again is it any wonder why 3/4 consoles saw decline.

The definition of outlier is "a statistical observation that is markedly different in value from the others of the sample." It's an outlier because 102 million is markedly different than the others 14 million to 62 million. It's also the only one to sell more than the previous generation. I don't know how else to put it.

The only way WiiU could have built upon the Wii is by scrapping it completely & being a different device.

They literally took the name of the wildly successful product and added a U. Wii was a very strong brand, so they kept that, kept the controllers, sensor bar, and added a bunch of other stuff. The same strategy didn't totally fail for the 3DS. But they tried to make the Wii U a Wii with more stuff, and it didn't take off.

And, they did strike lightning twice it’s name is Switch which would be the second “outlier.”

The post you're arguing with is about how home consoles were performing before the Switch and why it was a good decision to combine the product lines.

Nintendo didn’t just make a device that could “get home console games” they made a “home console that you can take with you.” That’s how they describe this machine. The pivot wasn’t because of low sales but because they couldn’t buoy two devices at the same time anymore.

Sure, they market it that way and that's fine. I think if they marketed it as a $300 gameboy with $60 games that's a tougher sell. So it makes sense they'd position it that way. Architecturally, the device is an evolution of DS/3DS technology (ARM CPU, cartridges, instant on/off) not Wii/Wii U (PowerPC, discs, long boot times). So yeah, they based it on their handheld line but made sure it worked with TVs and multiple controllers.
 

Intoxicate

The best is yet to come...
Demand is definitely gonna drop rapidly because there's gonna be two effects happening at the same time
-Saturation of the market, from simply selling to most potential customers
-OLED sales dying down because most people don't want to buy a second switch
I really, really don't believe they can make their target this year, but we'll see if they can prove me wrong.

The big question is, how big is the market?
The core Nintendo fan base should be represented by the Wii U sales. The Wii extended to casuals. But the Switch covers even more in my opinion. I know PS and XBox players that should never have bought a Nintendo console but they jumped on the Switch. Families, former gamers who don’t have much time today due to kids, life…
We’ll find out, but I don’t see the market saturated.
 
I'm observing the numbers on their site. They go down. The only assumption I'm making is that Nintendo probably wanted them to go up - or not go down as much. They tried, but after several generations, decided to make a big change - merging console and handheld.
I’m not denying they go down but to just assume they go down just because is what I’m arguing. And, no they didn’t try. They barely learned why they failed or didn’t learn at all. You don’t double down on nonsense like the N64 & think you’ll do well. Or follow that up with major mistakes in critical areas like the GC.
The definition of outlier is "a statistical observation that is markedly different in value from the others of the sample." It's an outlier because 102 million is markedly different than the others 14 million to 62 million. It's also the only one to sell more than the previous generation. I don't know how else to put it.
So basically a fluke by that definition. If you take out the Wii from the sm data set then you have nothing but a literal downward slope that you really can learn nothing from. In fact you get the very argument your pushing which boils down to Nintendo home consoles sell less because the last one sold less. That’s not really in any analysis of why Nintendo’s home consoles sales have faltered 3/4.
They literally took the name of the wildly successful product and added a U. Wii was a very strong brand, so they kept that, kept the controllers, sensor bar, and added a bunch of other stuff. The same strategy didn't totally fail for the 3DS. But they tried to make the Wii U a Wii with more stuff, and it didn't take off.
That first sentence should tell you this product was bound to fail. If someone thought that was a good follow up then then entire project was in trouble. By the time WiiU was releasing Wii was not a strong brand due to culminating mistakes. We can see this in sales both hardware & software. The only thing WiiU is good for is as a case study.
The post you're arguing with is about how home consoles were performing before the Switch and why it was a good decision to combine the product lines.
I never said it wasn’t a good decision. I’m arguing that I don’t agree that flagging home console sales were a significant reason why they had to combine.
Sure, they market it that way and that's fine. I think if they marketed it as a $300 gameboy with $60 games that's a tougher sell. So it makes sense they'd position it that way. Architecturally, the device is an evolution of DS/3DS technology (ARM CPU, cartridges, instant on/off) not Wii/Wii U (PowerPC, discs, long boot times). So yeah, they based it on their handheld line but made sure it worked with TVs and multiple controllers.
I don’t really think those are amazing examples of evolution of home console or handheld. No one uses PowerPC except for servers & x86 or Arm are really the only two choices for any console nowadays. Cartridges have been used in home consoles same with discs in handhelds. Instant on/off has been touted in consoles for awhile now & long boot times was a signature of 3DS. Frankly the fact that the Switch was made using the chip in the Nvidia Shield probably says more then those differences.

Anyway I don’t think we’ll agree to disagree so I’ll move on from this subject.
 
Nintendo might deliberately drop support and divert manufacturing if they release a successor. It's not certain, but it's possible.
It won’t be immediate as the 3DS was only discontinued in 2020. I’m also guessing that there will be a 2yr cross-gen period that will keep Switch in production as well. If they are struggling to supply current models then trying to divert manufacturing resources to Drake isn’t going to do much.
 

JoshuaJSlone

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I just don't see demand just vanishing that quickly in the next few years.
In the first half of this year, Switch is down about 18%. But if we were just looking at the original and Lite models, it would be down 54%. Safe to say that if the OLED actually had better specs on top of anything else, it would be stealing an even bigger chunk from older models.
 
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In the first half of this year, Switch is down about 18%. But if we were just looking at the original and Lite models, it would be down 54%. Safe to say that if the OLED actually had better specs on top of anything else, it would be stealing an even bigger chunk from older models.
I am talking about the switch family of systems, because that would be what would outsell the PS2, not just one or 2 models
 
In the first half of this year, Switch is down about 18%. But if we were just looking at the original and Lite models, it would be down 54%. Safe to say that if the OLED actually had better specs on top of anything else, it would be stealing an even bigger chunk from older models.
Why do you assume the drop for the Switch is gonna be similar to the Wii? You really don't think it'll have a gradual fall instead?
 

Erimgard

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In the first half of this year, Switch is down about 18%. But if we were just looking at the original and Lite models, it would be down 54%. Safe to say that if the OLED actually had better specs on top of anything else, it would be stealing an even bigger chunk from older models.
Nintendo also noted to investors that they faced more supply constraints in the first half of the year than expected
 


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