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Sales Data Nintendo Switch becomes the best-selling console of 2022 in the UK

If Switch 2 has full BC then I'd expect Nintendo to keep producing OG Switch's if only to help with the transition period, albeit at a reduced amount. Won't be for long, Nintendo are pretty ruthless when it comes to ending hardware production.

If we start seeing strong rumours of a successor in the immediate future then I'd expect Nintendo to cut the price of all Switch models to counteract them, especially if they're planning a launch in the first half of 2024 to give the Switch one last good holiday period before its follow-up is unveiled.
 
A virtually 0% drop YoY of hardware this age is really not likely.

It wont sell 20m next fiscal year.
Right, I hadn't realized we are already at 20m yearly. I remembered 2 years ago when they lowered the forecast 20% because of shortages. Guess that demand is not that high any more.
 
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Looking at

  • sales trajectory
  • new hardware introduzione
  • chip/production issues (that will deviate also production into the new hardware only)
  • past Nintendo management of orevious gen hw after new gen hw introduzione
  • recent sony management of gen transition


I would project

-123mil this FY
  • 137mil next FY
  • 142mil FY ending in March '25
  • 145mil end of life
If Switch hits the Nintendo's forecast then at the end of the FY NSW will be at 126.65M.

You are projecting a decline rate worse than PS4 because, aligned, Switch is selling far better than PS4 at the comparable time* but your tail end sales projection is on the same level as PS4 (which also went through a chip shortage).

* case in point the current FY in which Nintendo forecast 19.00M for Switch is comparable to the FY in which PS4 sold-in 13.40M.
 
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If Switch hits the Nintendo's forecast then at the end of the FY NSW will be at 126.65M.

You are projecting a decline rate worse than PS4 because, aligned, Switch is selling far better than PS4 at the comparable time* but your tail end sales projection is on the same level as PS4 (which also went through a chip shortage).

* case in point the current FY in which Nintendo forecast 19.00M for Switch is comparable to the FY in which PS4 sold-in 13.40M.


Yeah I was mixing up sell-through and distributed for this FY, but from sales numbers I think they will have smaller than expected Q4 numbers and end up with lower than expected FY totals

Plus, yes I think that the Switch2 will basically kill Switch production after its introduction on the market

Of course you can also add those 3mil to this FY and have another couple of millions later on, and still wouldn't gonover DS and Ps2
 
Yeah I was mixing up sell-through and distributed for this FY, but from sales numbers I think they will have smaller than expected Q4 numbers and end up with lower than expected FY totals

Plus, yes I think that the Switch2 will basically kill Switch production after its introduction on the market

Of course you can also add those 3mil to this FY and have another couple of millions later on, and still wouldn't gonover DS and Ps2
It would annoy me sm if it gets that close to DS and PS2 but doesn't beat it.
 
well, it's more a statistical goal more than anything - it is and will be among the best and most succesfull consoles ever (in terms of software sales and profit generated, it could even be #1 at the end of the day)
It's just a dream of mine, to see it take that number one spot and the just for the insane reactions if it happens, from the wii u which was one of the worst selling consoles to the switch the best selling console of all time.
 
Switch OLED Micro will push it past PS2.

I realistically see one more handheld only revision at the end of Switch's life that will give it a huge push during Switch 2's launch year.
 
If Switch 2 has full BC then I'd expect Nintendo to keep producing OG Switch's if only to help with the transition period, albeit at a reduced amount. Won't be for long, Nintendo are pretty ruthless when it comes to ending hardware production.

Only when the hardware sells poorly. They did cut the gamecube and Wii U off fast, but the 3ds continued to be produced up to mid-late 2020 and the DS in 2014 iirc, we could reasonably infer at least 2 years more of Switch production from the launch of the successor.
 
Only when the hardware sells poorly. They did cut the gamecube and Wii U off fast, but the 3ds continued to be produced up to mid-late 2020 and the DS in 2014 iirc, we could reasonably infer at least 2 years more of Switch production from the launch of the successor.
I know DS stuck around for a fair bit after the 3DS was launched, but to all intents and purposes 3DS was largely forgotten by Nintendo around 2018, and IIRC sales for the console fell off a cliff in this same year. My point is largely that Nintendo don't hesitate to stop manufacturing consoles the instant they stop selling. They couldn't drop the Wii U fast enough for instance.

But as I said, the key factor is if Switch 2 has full backwards compatibility, and how much of a cross gen strategy Nintendo are willing to pursue. If Nintendo keep releasing games that can run on the OG Switch for a year or two, then they'll definitely keep manufacturing more of them to act as the 'cheap alternative'.
 
A repeat of DS whiffing the landing would possibly be the funniest outcome, though.
No fun at all!

Looks at this heart-breaking graph:
J7A3aye.jpg
 
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In UK, in Japan, In USA... Switch was the best-selling console of 2022 in the WORLD, just like since 2018.

You are correct. Going by Calendar year the last year Switch wasn't the best selling console was 2018 with 17.41 million shipped versus 17.70 million by PS4.
With only only one quarter to be reported for 2022 it is obvious that Switch will win. Switch has been outselling PS5 this holiday quarter in most terroritories so i think 2022 will finish something like 20 million for Switch and 14.5 million for PS5. This will be the last year Switch will be on top as sales keep declining and PS5 sales keep rising as supply improves.

Calendar Year hardware shipments

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I think people are underestimating how much the Switch can and will sell after the Switch 2 launches. I can't see any scenario that Nintendo DOESN't keep producing more Switches, a system that is likely to bevome the best selling console of all time, even after it successor launches. Kind of like it has done with most of its consoles.

Even if Nintendo produces only 5 million a year, Nintendo will keep the Switch alive for at least 2 years into the Switch 2, and most likely will serve as the "gateway/stopgag" solution for the Switch 2 early in its life(I'm assuming the Switch 2 will be somewhat expensive, at least 400 dollars, so the Switch(especially with a price cut) would serve as a entry point for those not wanting to pay a premium price), and that will be where the Switch will take the number one spot.
 
I know DS stuck around for a fair bit after the 3DS was launched, but to all intents and purposes 3DS was largely forgotten by Nintendo around 2018, and IIRC sales for the console fell off a cliff in this same year. My point is largely that Nintendo don't hesitate to stop manufacturing consoles the instant they stop selling. They couldn't drop the Wii U fast enough for instance.

But as I said, the key factor is if Switch 2 has full backwards compatibility, and how much of a cross gen strategy Nintendo are willing to pursue. If Nintendo keep releasing games that can run on the OG Switch for a year or two, then they'll definitely keep manufacturing more of them to act as the 'cheap alternative'.

They manufactured as many 3DSes as ther was demand for the console, yes, that wasn't a huge amount, but the 3ds was already doing low numbers, in 2016 it only sold 6.79m units, 2017 saw that go up to 7.27m, and 2018 was 6.4m, you can hardly draw any conclusions from those that they stopped or even reduced manufacturing because of the successors release. Only 2019 actually saw a serious decrease and so was when the console finally ended production.
 
I think people are underestimating how much the Switch can and will sell after the Switch 2 launches. I can't see any scenario that Nintendo DOESN't keep producing more Switches, a system that is likely to bevome the best selling console of all time, even after it successor launches. Kind of like it has done with most of its consoles.

Even if Nintendo produces only 5 million a year, Nintendo will keep the Switch alive for at least 2 years into the Switch 2, and most likely will serve as the "gateway/stopgag" solution for the Switch 2 early in its life(I'm assuming the Switch 2 will be somewhat expensive, at least 400 dollars, so the Switch(especially with a price cut) would serve as a entry point for those not wanting to pay a premium price), and that will be where the Switch will take the number one spot.
Same thing with the PS1, a cheap budget version came out after the PS2 and accounts for roughly 1/3 of its lifetime sales.
 
I think people are underestimating how much the Switch can and will sell after the Switch 2 launches. I can't see any scenario that Nintendo DOESN't keep producing more Switches, a system that is likely to bevome the best selling console of all time, even after it successor launches. Kind of like it has done with most of its consoles.
They generally haven't sold in monster numbers. so far.
NES after SNES: Too far back for Nintendo's numbers to be useful.
SNES after N64: About 3.5 million after March 1997, plus some amount from the year before.
N64 after GCN: 0.5m or less
GCN after Wii: 0.2-0.5m
Wii after Wii U: 2-4m
Wii U after Switch: 0
GB after GBA: 4.7m
GBA after DS: 16-20m
DS after 3DS: 8-9m
3DS after Switch: 9.8-10.6m

GBA after DS seems most notable, gaining near 30% after successor. PS1 was in the higher 30s%, PS2 around 40%. All of these are instances where the successor arrived before the previous gen had a chance to cool down, and were also available for dirt cheap relative to the newer machine. Maybe Switch would be in a similar position if Drake shows up in May for $400+ and the OLED drops to $200.
 
The only thing I know is that after Q25 (see chart above) Switch is going to consistently gain on DS.
No idea if in the end it will surpass it but I'm confident NSW will end up above 150M.
 
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I'd love for Nintendo to keep producing the switch at dirt cheap prices just to cross that goal and spite everyone lol.

Still, worst case scenario it will end up in a comfortable 3rd place, only surpassed by a cheap device that chased the blue ocean (with touch games) and another cheap device that chased the blue ocean (with it being a cheap DVD drive). However, those consoles also sold a lot while their successors (DS and PS3) were struggling, a situation that we are trying to avoid this time around.
 
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