Pre-Release Nintendo has done everything in its power to make Metroid successful. The (morph) ball is in the market's court now

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Phantom Thief

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Peleo said:
Do we have any information so far (pre-order data, Comg, sales industry people) etc which could give us any indication here?
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It topped GameStop preorders following E3, it topped and remains at the top of Amazon sales charts since E3, and it’s been consistently in the top three on the eShop in the week ahead of its launch.
 
Ghostsonplanets

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Clix

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Red Monster said:
I must be misremembering Excitebike 64 then cause I’ve got no idea what you mean. Was there a soccer mode??

I love that game and I really want Nintendo to put out another Excitebike.
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Yeah! They had a soccer mode and it was pretty fun!
 
Waluijob

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7-10 million units sold globally is my prediction.

I think it will lead to the rumored Prime re-release in 2022 which will also sell well and Nintendo may take Metroid seriously again as a franchise worth putting money behind with two pillars - 2D and 3D similar to how they treat Zelda.
 
rAndom

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I can see Dread being the best selling Metroid game ever, getting it's FE: Awakening moment with this game. I predicted before that in Japan at least I can see it breaking out. Seems to also get a lot of exposure with ads and vtubers showing off the game. And it seems other territories are into the hype as well.
 
Whelt

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Every new entry to a series on Switch ends up being the best selling one or close to it. I see Metroid holding this trend.
 
Jarmusch

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Waluijob said:
7-10 million units sold globally is my prediction.

I think it will lead to the rumored Prime re-release in 2022 which will also sell well and Nintendo may take Metroid seriously again as a franchise worth putting money behind with two pillars - 2D and 3D similar to how they treat Zelda.
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any number above 3 mil should be a success i think, not sure it will do that much better, metroid usually finds a way to underperform
 
Waluijob

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Jarmusch said:
any number above 3 mil should be a success i think, not sure it will do that much better, metroid usually finds a way to underperform
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The best selling Metroid was Prime at just under 3 million. Its companion title, Fusion, sold under 2 million That was the only massive investment I’ve seen in my lifetime by Nintendo to promote a Metroid title and even then it paled in comparison to their investment in promoting Dread, the hype in the community after a decade plus of teasing, and was limited by the install base of releasing on the GameCube.

Times have changed, the market has changed, and Metroidvanias have never been more popular. I feel confident in the legs this will have, but also understand the Metroid curse.
 
Sailor Moon

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I actually saw advertising and signage for Dread at the store when I was out getting groceries earlier. Really hoping that it does well.

It’s great that so many genres and series have managed to thrive on Switch.
 
Rooster

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Terrell said:
Minority stakeholder. And this idea that Nintendo is downright phobic of the idea needs to go away.

Again, if Dread is a massive success beyond Nintendo's expectations and well beyond what is expected from the franchise as a whole, expect there to be some talks on this in Kyoto.
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They still haven't acquired longstanding partners who have proven to be able to put out highly profitable titles. They seem satisfied with partnerships. Maybe if Dread does gangbusters and then the prospect of outright losing MercurySteam altogether rises they'd give it some thought, like with NLG, but otherwise I doubt it.
 
Terrell

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Aquarius said:
friday-movie-that-was-different.gif


The guy who started Monolith Soft was a seasoned veteran who worked at Squaresoft. Mercury Steam doesn't have that kind of résumé.
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Aquarius said:
Yes, but even then I can see where Nintendo is more comfortable buying a company that has seasoned Squaresoft veterans, than a relatively unknown entity called Mercury Steam. I also feel that Nintendo still feel burned by Retro Studios. Mercury Steam could become the Next Retro (in a bad way), however Next Level Games have proven time and time again over the years that they know what they are doing.
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Retro had NO resume and 3 failed projects under its belt. And I doubt Nintendo feels burned by the acquisition, considering it led to the revival of Donkey Kong Country, Returns netting them over 6 million units and Tropical Freeze doing about 5 million so far across 2 platforms, along with a reliable developer to assist with other projects. All for the low price of less than $2 million plus wages following 2006.

Everything is an exception on this topic... until it's not. I have watched this goalpost get moved around since the Retro acquisition in 2006 and it's exhausting. If the devs are excited to work with/for Nintendo, produce something that makes them significant money and the pre-existing owners of that capital are willing to divest of it, it can/might happen. @Rooster, one of these 3 conditions not being met (likely the last of the 3) is likely why it hasn't happened for others.

I'm not exactly a fan of consolidation, but I appreciate Nintendo liking employee opt-in on that before engaging in it, and I'm not about to pretend that there's some magic (and ever-evolving) confluence of necessity beyond those conditions I outlined, as though being a Nintendo subsidiary is some special exclusionary club and MercurySteam just ain't cool enough to be part of it.

But I'm off-topic now, so I'll cool it.
 
Zedark

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I agree. Metroid Dread is set up in many different ways to be very successful. It should become the franchise's best-selling entry, and perhaps do well above that (my current prediction is 5M lifetime).
 
Terraforce

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I have no doubt that between this game, Prime 4, and a potential Prime 1 remake, Metroid will cement its position as a B tier Nintendo series.

Dread is going to sell upwards of 3 million copies with the great word of mouth, crazy marketing, and stellar critic score it has received. It's already selling out on Amazon US and on the top of every eshop chart.

Waluijob said:
7-10 million units sold globally is my prediction.

I think it will lead to the rumored Prime re-release in 2022 which will also sell well and Nintendo may take Metroid seriously again as a franchise worth putting money behind with two pillars - 2D and 3D similar to how they treat Zelda.
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I was thinking 5-6M would be the LTD ceiling, but who knows. 10 million seems wild to me, but crazier things have happened, and Nintendo Switch games have crazy legs.
 
Linkstrikesback

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10m would put it above things like Monster Hunter Rise, Mario 3D world, the 2D zelda on the platform.

It's going to do well by most signs, but there needs to be at least some realism in predictions. Getting to 5m would be an astounding breakthrough for the series. 3m would probably be enough to make Nintendo very much happy with sales performance.

For context, beloved indie darling, Hollow Knight was reported at 2.8m in early2019, after releasing on all platforms, with 2 years since the PC launch and at a fraction of Metroids pricing. 5m may well make it the best selling metroidvania ever, thinking about it.
 
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Peleo

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Ghostsonplanets said:
We also have the shipment for France : 124k. Japan shipment alone is thought to be at least 100k. So Nintendo expectations should be high for the title.
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Phantom Thief said:
It topped GameStop preorders following E3, it topped and remains at the top of Amazon sales charts since E3, and it’s been consistently in the top three on the eShop in the week ahead of its launch.
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Thank you both. Let's see if Nintendo comes with any PR on Monday.
 
BillieB

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I have never played a Metroid game, but I'm low-key invested in its success now, hoping this does well!
 
Falcatops

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UnrulyUmbreon said:
Naturally I'm still dreaming of a complete Yakuza-style makeover for F-Zero like everyone else...

But I think something as small as a visual novel overlay of character portraits talking (Fire Emblem or Persona style) to each other in arcade mode would be enough story to draw in a broader crowd. Maybe include an EXP mechanic where people who aren't as skilled can upgrade the stats of their vehicle. There's potential, I think, for F-Zero to sell much better with minimal changes. Maybe I'm wildly off base. Maybe Nintendo should release a new F-Zero and prove I'm a fraud.
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Clix said:
That's funny, I had the same thought. I had a daydream where it was a cyberpunk dive bar with all the rogues and bounty hunters just hanging around and you can interact with the patrons or get missions from the bar tender or riff raff for a story mode. And it was all in graphic novel style using the designs from the art from the N64 version lol
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An F-Zero with a cyberpunk aesthetic, open world design, car races for money, car engine/etc customization and a central plot about Captain Falcon doing some kind of heist in the style of The Fast & Furious franchise would be the dream.
They could even name it F-Zero: The Fast and the Zerious. Billion dollar idea right there.

Back on topic, I really hope that Metroid Dread sells in the same range of Luigi‘s Mansion 3, another series that didn’t have a huge blockbuster title before.
 
AquaWateria

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Holy crap at some of these predictions lmao. Some of you guys are way too optimistic.

Reminds me of Fire Emblem Three Houses high predictions lol.
 
Red Monster

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It’s a shame nintendo doesn’t release digital sales figures cause I think that should factor into all the talk about dread being the best selling metroid
 
KCannon

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Waluijob said:
The best selling Metroid was Prime at just under 3 million. Its companion title, Fusion, sold under 2 million That was the only massive investment I’ve seen in my lifetime by Nintendo to promote a Metroid title and even then it paled in comparison to their investment in promoting Dread, the hype in the community after a decade plus of teasing, and was limited by the install base of releasing on the GameCube.

Times have changed, the market has changed, and Metroidvanias have never been more popular. I feel confident in the legs this will have, but also understand the Metroid curse.
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Hollow Knight is one of the more popular Metroidvanias out there and it still sold around 2-3 million.

It's very difficult for a 2D game to do extremely high numbers unless they're Mario. Donkey Kong, Kirby and Yoshi are all in the 2-3 million mark in the Switch.

Plus, Asia will likely hold back Metroid's potential.
 
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Linkstrikesback

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Red Monster said:
It’s a shame nintendo doesn’t release digital sales figures cause I think that should factor into all the talk about dread being the best selling metroid
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Digital sales are included in Nintendo's year/quarter "million+" selling numbers, as well as the CESA white paper if Celine or anyone else is planning to continue that sales thread on the sales forum, which I should look in to.
 
HuskerfanChuck

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Predicting at least 1MM week 1, 5MM before end of CY, and at least 10MM lifetime. The few indicators we have currently all seem incredibly positive for sales. Combine that with the Switch effect on many titles, and I can see this breaking out in a big way.
 
Heron

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Yep. Whatever Dread sells is probably the ceiling for a 2d Metroid, because both circumstances and game quality couldn't be any better. It has the prime October spot to itself as the first party blockbuster on a platform of 90m+ with a new model supporting it.

I thought 5m lifetime, but playing it now and seeing word of mouth I really think it'll do more - maybe 7-8m.

If it doesn't do well, I think the strongest lesson learned will be that the market doesn't see the value in 2d games at $60, or short games at $60. I have seen multiple people considering if they really want to pay $60 for 8-12 hours of gameplay (or whatever it actually is). Ridiculous to me, but everyone has their own criteria.
 
Apopheniac

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My personal take is that the cap is probably around 3m lifetime, and that's not a function of anything but the IP itself. It's not anything special in Japan and it's not kid-friendly like Mario and pals.

It will still do very well for itself, but I think people here are projecting the ideals of the "core" audience in ways they don't apply. Most consumers aren't going to be bothered by game length or the perspective.
 

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Terrell said:
Retro had NO resume and 3 failed projects under its belt. And I doubt Nintendo feels burned by the acquisition, considering it led to the revival of Donkey Kong Country, Returns netting them over 6 million units and Tropical Freeze doing about 5 million so far across 2 platforms, along with a reliable developer to assist with other projects. All for the low price of less than $2 million plus wages following 2006.

Everything is an exception on this topic... until it's not. I have watched this goalpost get moved around since the Retro acquisition in 2006 and it's exhausting. If the devs are excited to work with/for Nintendo, produce something that makes them significant money and the pre-existing owners of that capital are willing to divest of it, it can/might happen. @Rooster, one of these 3 conditions not being met (likely the last of the 3) is likely why it hasn't happened for others.

I'm not exactly a fan of consolidation, but I appreciate Nintendo liking employee opt-in on that before engaging in it, and I'm not about to pretend that there's some magic (and ever-evolving) confluence of necessity beyond those conditions I outlined, as though being a Nintendo subsidiary is some special exclusionary club and MercurySteam just ain't cool enough to be part of it.

But I'm off-topic now, so I'll cool it.
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Who said anything about an exclusive club? It's just that Nintendo is not quick to purchase developers. Just look at Rare's output during the N64 era and Nintendo did NOT buy them.
 
Instro

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The annual best sellers chart for this game looks pretty good. Not super informative, but not bad to use when comparing a Switch game to another Switch game:

Amazon.com Best Sellers of 2021 in Video Games

Discover Amazon’s Top 100 best-selling products in 2012, 2011, 2010 and beyond. View the Top 100 best sellers for each year, in Amazon Books, Kindle eBooks, Music, MP3 Songs and Video Games. Browse Amazon’s “Best Sellers of 2012 (So Far)” list to find the most popular products throughout the...
www.amazon.com

As of last night Dread reached 51st on the list, which is updated every 24 hours, and has been rapidly climbing over the last several days. For comparison Mario Golf is currently 42nd on that same list, which released back in June. We also know that Mario Golf sold 1.5m it's first month. So obviously this isn't exact science, but it seems like Metroid having already nearly caught up to Mario Golf on Amazon, coupled with what we know of the first month sales of Mario Golf, would mean that Dread is going to have a pretty substantial launch.
 
Terrell

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So... we've talked about worldwide, but what's everyone's opinion on Japan? Could this be the franchise's breakout moment in Japan, doing better than it ever has since and making it the second best seller behind the original Metroid (1mil+ units)?
Aquarius said:
Who said anything about an exclusive club? It's just that Nintendo is not quick to purchase developers. Just look at Rare's output during the N64 era and Nintendo did NOT buy them.
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3 words: Yamauchi/Lincoln era. And don't get me started there, I have no kind words for that era from the corporate end, but I will say the way that Nintendo ran its business at that time was a house of cards destined to fall, their handling of Rare being a good example of that.
 
Marce-chan

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Skittzo said:
Honestly I think it'll be close to that, but not quite 2m. Definitely well over 1m.

But I'm guessing it'll have a bigger shipment for the holidays coming in a few weeks.
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If it has a launch day shipment of 1 million it's already the biggest for Metroid ever. Tbh a first quarter shipment of 3m isn't too off the table imo.
 
Marce-chan

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Phendrift said:
I really really hope we get a press release from Nintendo on Monday.

To avoid doomposting over Japanese and UK sales
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What was the last time they made PR about first weekend sales??
I remember Wii U era where every 1m was celebrated cuz they were rare. MK8 got 1.2m in it's first 3 days.
Switch set a huge bar with big front loads like SMO, ACNH and MHR. I don't know if we will get one for Metroid. But I'm positive 1.5 shipment is the down bar here because it's releasing alongside a revision.
I think we have a better shot at receiving sell through figures in the earnings release. Is it coming in early November?? If so I can see a sell through of more than 1m and hell maybe even 2, so it's gonna be worth mentioning. They did mention the 350k/400k sell through of Bayo 2 iirc in its first two weeks in the earnings report of Q3 2017 in Feb/march 2018.
 
storres

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Marce-chan said:
What was the last time they made PR about first weekend sales??
I remember Wii U era where every 1m was celebrated cuz they were rare. MK8 got 1.2m in it's first 3 days.
Switch set a huge bar with big front loads like SMO, ACNH and MHR. I don't know if we will get one for Metroid. But I'm positive 1.5 shipment is the down bar here because it's releasing alongside a revision.
I think we have a better shot at receiving sell through figures in the earnings release. Is it coming in early November?? If so I can see a sell through of more than 1m and hell maybe even 2, so it's gonna be worth mentioning. They did mention the 350k/400k sell through of Bayo 2 iirc in its first two weeks in the earnings report of Q3 2017 in Feb/march 2018.
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I think it was Sword and Shield.

Since covid started, they haven't given PR for any of their games.
 
Marce-chan

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Terraforce said:
How often does Nintendo do the shipped/sold PR announcements outside of financial reports?
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They always do with 3D Mario, Mario Kart and they did for Smash on the Wii U but I don't remember for Ultimate. They did for Zelda BotW iirc. Splatoon 2 too.
Exclusive games by third parties such as Octopath Traveler and BDII had their Twitter accounts posting when they shipped 1m. Monster Hunter Rise had Capcom PR its 4m launch weekend shipment.
 
Marce-chan

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storres said:
I think it was Sword and Shield.

Since covid started, they haven't given PR for any of their games.
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Ooh that's too bad... Hope we get an exception here. Or maybe some tracker spilling the beans like that early numbers we got for ACNH.
 
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