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StarTopic Mario Kart 8 Deluxe – Booster Course Pass |ST| Doubled Dash!! [WAVE 6 AVAILABLE NOW]

What is your favorite course in Wave 6?

  • Rome Avanti

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • DK Mountain

    Votes: 7 14.6%
  • Daisy Circuit

    Votes: 1 2.1%
  • Piranha Plant Cove

    Votes: 3 6.3%
  • Madrid Drive

    Votes: 1 2.1%
  • Rosalina's Ice World

    Votes: 7 14.6%
  • SNES Bowser Castle 3

    Votes: 11 22.9%
  • Wii Rainbow Road

    Votes: 18 37.5%

  • Total voters
    48
I just realised something which makes logical sense as to why the Tour starting on July 12th has a new city track. That Tour will in-fact be the game's 100th Tour so introducing a new city for that occasion makes sense.
 
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Double post, but the whole scheduling thing got me thinking a bit more. Yoshi's Island wasn't tied that closely to Wave 4, but we ultimately still had a Tour release coincide with it, this time being DS Mario Circuit. Nintendo isn't beholden to Tour's schedule, but we can probably use the ID updates to get a general idea of when the most likely weeks are for Wave 5. Generally, if the BCP features a Nitro track, they're probably gonna want to give it some time to breathe on its own before announcing it for Tour, but for retro tracks that doesn't seem to be the case. So, in other words, if the coinciding Tour track is an unannounced Nitro, then we're probably looking at Wave 5 releasing a week before it's respective Tour, while anything else can release either the week before or the week of.

Now, let's look at the ID updates Mondo so graciously gave us, starting from the middle of June:



Unless the prefix and/or the music leak is a bust, this one is a no-go. There are no more N64 tracks, and the final GBA track is Sunset Wilds. Either of the GCN circuits seem fairly unlikely, and the Wii circuits are out too. So we can probably cross off everything up through June 17th.



The first one that seems pretty likely. If this is the coinciding Tour, then Piranha Plant Cove would likely be the headliner, with the new GBA track being introduced into Tour at the same time. They did the same thing last year, with Merry Mountain headlining the final Tour despite GBA Snow Land being new to the game. Given past precedent, this would probably place the release date on the week of the 18th although the week of the 25th can't be discounted either. Given that Nintendo likes to hold directs in the second week of June, this would line up perfectly with that as well for a full reveal.

Of course, this is all dependent on Piranha Plant Cove being in Wave 5, which is no guarantee.



This is a tough one. They'd probably want to release a new City track in Tour first, rather than introducing it in the BCP. It's not impossible they do the latter, but I don't see it happening, personally. The release date would have to be the 13th or the 14th, and that would be right after its Tour introduction. Not impossible, but I don't think it's particularly likely.



On paper, this would be a perfect fit. Release the new track in the BCP (I've seen speculation that it's actually Super Mario Land themed, which would be sick) and then drop it in Tour the following week. Only problem is that the week before is booked: they aren't gonna release Mario Kart 8 DLC the same week as Pikmin 4. That would force them to release it the week of, something that they've seemingly been avoiding (likely to give the "new track" label more meaning). Just like the last one, it's not impossible, but there's a lot working against it.



This one is probably out. Nothing here to really coincide with what we're likely getting in Wave 5. If June 17th is the lower bound, then I'd say that July 29th is the upper bound. I don't see it bleeding into mid-August, and there's nothing here that would really tie into what we're getting.

Of course, the ID updates can change still, there could easily be a few surprises, but from this, if I had to guess, we're looking at one of the following options.
  • Releases the week of 6/18 or 6/25, Piranha Plant Cove is one of the tracks included
  • Releases the week of 7/2 or 7/9, Rio is one of the tracks included
  • Releases the week of 7/23, one of the currently unrevealed tracks is included
I'd say the first option (6/18 with Piranha Plant Cove) is the most likely option given the circumstances surrounding everything else. Rest of Wave 5 is rounded out with Los Angeles, the commonly speculated Retros, and two of Vancouver, Athens, and whatever the new track releasing in July is.

When do we think the next wave is hitting? June, July?
Pulling up my old post here, but the TL;DR (in my opinion) is one of the following:
  • Releases the week of 6/18 or 6/25
    • Piranha Plant Cove is one of the included tracks
  • Releases the week of 7/2 or 7/9
    • A new city track is one of the included tracks
  • Releases the week of 7/23 (least likely due to timing)
    • An unrevealed nitro is one of the included tracks
My personal opinion is that we're gonna get it in late June, with two nitros (Piranha Plant Cove + one entirely new one) and two cities (Los Angeles and Athens), but you could probably make an argument for any of the above. When it comes to Tour tracks, we're getting some combination of Los Angeles, Athens, Vancouver, Piranha Plant Cove, a new nitro, and a new city track, and I'm guessing one of those tracks will coincide with the next Tour in Mario Kart Tour, hence those specific interval + track combinations.
 
The Speculated Tour Timeline spreadsheet has been updated with the Rio City now coming in the Tour starting on July 26th. The Tour starting on July 12th has mobbr.

Here are the 100th, 101st, 102nd, and 103rd Tours for Mario Kart Tour, which are around where Wave 5 would realistically launch imo.
tour100-103.png
 
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The Speculated Tour Timeline spreadsheet has been updated with the Rio City now coming in the Tour starting on July 26th. The Tour starting on July 12th has mobbr.

Here are the 100th, 101st, 102nd, and 103rd Tours for Mario Kart Tour, which are around where Wave 5 would realistically launch imo.
tour100-103.png
Interesting. Makes that new city track even less likely for Wave 5. Have to imagine either Vancouver was brought forward or we’re only getting two (heck, both of those things could be true).
 
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What's the latest on the speculated/rumoured/leaked tracks for BCP Wave 5 and 6? We have 3 more GCN tracks, 1(?) more Wii track, 3DS and DS were done I think?
 
What's the latest on the speculated/rumoured/leaked tracks for BCP Wave 5 and 6? We have 3 more GCN tracks, 1(?) more Wii track, 3DS and DS were done I think?
1 SNES - Assumed to be SNES Bowser Castle 3
0 N64
1 GBA - Sunset Wilds (music datamine)
3 GCN
0 DS
2 Wii - Koopa Cape (banner datamine) and assumed to be Rainbow Road
0 3DS
5 Tour cities - Los Angeles Laps (music datamine), Vancouver Velocity (music datamine), Athens Dash, unknown city 1 (assumed to be Rio), unknown city 2 (assumed to be whatever mobmd is)
4 Tour nitros - Piranha Plant Cove, mobdk (speculated to be Sarasaland), mobbr (speculated to be Bathroom themed), unknown nitro
 
1 SNES - Assumed to be SNES Bowser Castle 3
0 N64
1 GBA - Sunset Wilds (music datamine)
3 GCN
0 DS
2 Wii - Koopa Cape (banner datamine) and assumed to be Rainbow Road
0 3DS
5 Tour cities - Los Angeles Laps (music datamine), Vancouver Velocity (music datamine), Athens Dash, unknown city 1 (assumed to be Rio), unknown city 2 (assumed to be whatever mobmd is)
4 Tour nitros - Piranha Plant Cove, mobdk (speculated to be Sarasaland), mobbr (speculated to be Bathroom themed), unknown nitro
I'm not entirely convinced on 3 more GCN. I think there's a decent chance they did the whole shuffling around of moving up Maple Treeway and bumping around the GCN tracks to eliminate 1 and make space for something else.
 
I'm not entirely convinced on 3 more GCN. I think there's a decent chance they did the whole shuffling around of moving up Maple Treeway and bumping around the GCN tracks to eliminate 1 and make space for something else.
There's barely any GCN representation in MK8DX so I'd rather they not yeetus deletus one of the GCN ones in favour of another.
 
I'm not entirely convinced on 3 more GCN. I think there's a decent chance they did the whole shuffling around of moving up Maple Treeway and bumping around the GCN tracks to eliminate 1 and make space for something else.
Eh, I don’t think so. There’s so much evidence pointing towards the shuffling being a fairly late change, probably too late to warrant cutting an entire GCN track.

Think it’s more likely we see a Tour or nitro track cut than a GCN track, if anything gets cut at all.
 
Eh, I don’t think so. There’s so much evidence pointing towards the shuffling being a fairly late change, probably too late to warrant cutting an entire GCN track.

Think it’s more likely we see a Tour or nitro track cut than a GCN track, if anything gets cut at all.
yes, cut a tour track and give me Wario Colosseum
 
Pulling up my old post here, but the TL;DR (in my opinion) is one of the following:
  • Releases the week of 6/18 or 6/25
    • Piranha Plant Cove is one of the included tracks
  • Releases the week of 7/2 or 7/9
    • A new city track is one of the included tracks
  • Releases the week of 7/23 (least likely due to timing)
    • An unrevealed nitro is one of the included tracks
My personal opinion is that we're gonna get it in late June, with two nitros (Piranha Plant Cove + one entirely new one) and two cities (Los Angeles and Athens), but you could probably make an argument for any of the above. When it comes to Tour tracks, we're getting some combination of Los Angeles, Athens, Vancouver, Piranha Plant Cove, a new nitro, and a new city track, and I'm guessing one of those tracks will coincide with the next Tour in Mario Kart Tour, hence those specific interval + track combinations.
Another thing to consider is that wave 4 actually released an extra Tour before the Yoshi Tour, so really, the next wave could come out with a new nitro a while before it comes to Tour if they want it to, but we’ll see. I’m starting to lean towards LA, Athens, PPC, and mobbr being our Tour tracks for wave 5 tho tbh
 
Eh, I don’t think so. There’s so much evidence pointing towards the shuffling being a fairly late change, probably too late to warrant cutting an entire GCN track.

Think it’s more likely we see a Tour or nitro track cut than a GCN track, if anything gets cut at all.
I hope you're right! I'd like 3 more GCN tracks. Just nervous with the switcharoos
 
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Another thing to consider is that wave 4 actually released an extra Tour before the Yoshi Tour, so really, the next wave could come out with a new nitro a while before it comes to Tour if they want it to, but we’ll see. I’m starting to lean towards LA, Athens, PPC, and mobbr being our Tour tracks for wave 5 tho tbh
Yup, not ruling out a new nitro for any of those options. Important to note that we still got a coinciding Tour release with DS Mario Circuit though.

All of that was made before the recent modifications to the timeline though. With mobbr coming soon, that opens the door for early July to be a lot likelier than I initially anticipated. Could also skip it entirely and roll with mobdk too, like how they skipped Piranha Plant Cove for Yoshi’s Island. Plenty of options.
 
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Two new courses each in the final two waves would make sense. It would probably be the DK track and Piranha Plant Cove in this Wave, with the Bathroom track and what I'm assuming to be a Switch exclusive track in the last wave. Balances things out a bit.
 
IF the GCN track gets swapped around, I will only be okay with it if it’s Airship Fortress.

Other than that, give me my beloved GCN tracks! Especially hyped for Daisy Cruiser and/or DK Mountain.
 
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The mobBR track getting moved up makes predicting slightly clearer. A couple notes:

Assuming mobBR is released July 12, it will be announced for Tour on July 6. This would be exactly four months after Wave 4, which seems to be Nintendo's approximate lead time between waves. I think our Wave 5 release date will be the first week of July to coincide with mobBR's release, so Nintendo can cross-promote just like they've done with NH, SHS, MM, and YI.

Then, our eight tracks would be:
LA
Athens
Mushroom Bridge
Daisy Cruiser
Koopa Cape
Sunset Wilds
mobBR
Either Bowser Castle 3, Rio, or Vancouver

Assuming mobDK is a Daisy (not DK) track, I don't think it will come in the same wave as Daisy Cruiser. Plus I don't think Nintendo would make us wait 5-6 months for this wave to coincide with mobDK's release in Tour.

Rio could still come, especially if it's the Tour right after mobBR. I don't think it's that crazy to release a new city in MK8D before Tour, but if they don't want to do that, they could keep BC3 in Wave 5 or put Vancouver in Wave 5.

I don't think PPC has any chance this wave, as there are already a lot of water tracks and there's no cross-promoting opportunity.
 
I don't think PPC has any chance this wave, as there are already a lot of water tracks and there's no cross-promoting opportunity.
The 2nd June tour doesn’t have a clear theme, is only seemingly adding a GBA track, and has Piranha Plant Cove. They could easily have that be the featured track for the Tour and cross promote that way.

I think that’s what I’m leaning towards, with BR also being introduced in Wave 5 and having a lengthier exclusivity period, similar to Yoshi’s Island. Could maybe even swap it out for DK.
 
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The Mii Costumes were a false alarm, lmao. The next Tour IS in fact Mario Vs Luigi Tour.

banner_19700_120_All.png


Peach Circuit might just be THE most faithful GBA remake in Tour; outside of the elevation changes (which only add to the course) the layout remains 1:1. Makes sense since this is the beginner track; but even a fellow Mushroom Cup track (Riverside Park) got simplified a bit so it's a little surprising.

Fbx_Gagb_PeachCircuit_Map.png
Peach_Circuit.png
 
Another weird one. No ID changes again besides the GCN gap getting cut down to account for Mushroom Bridge. We can eliminate a few of the potential options alphabetically because of that at least; there's nothing between DK Mountain and Mushroom Bridge.

L2tIu8D.png


Next Tour should be interesting though, as it'll close up the Daisy Circuit gap, but also rule out a few GBA options depending on if there is any gap between Peach Circuit and Riverside Park (there will definitely be a gap before it still, for Luigi Circuit and potentially something else).

Third Tour in a row with no ID increases; just closing gaps now. No gap after Peach Circuit either, which rules out of a few of the potential options for the final GBA track after Luigi Circuit. Kinda feel like the writing is on the wall at this point for Tour being near the end of its life.

Mario_Kart_ID_Gap_Q2.png
 
Wouldn't be surprised if they start doing highlights of the previous wave in the Switch News app soon as I think those have been harbingers of the next wave's announcement
They're doing highlights of wave 4 courses on the Switch news app. At least where i'm from. Last time I checked they made a post about the snowboarding track i don't remember the name of.
 
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There're more than a few reasons to think Tour is nearing the end of notable new content at this point. The track IDs regularly discussed here are the only ones directly relevant to 8DX speculation, but almost every important item in Tour has some sort of ID system attached, and they could potentially be signs of wrapping up major content additions just like the afformentioned lack of track ID updates.

1) Drivers. We're starting to run a little low on regular drivers and Mii suits alike. Based on current highest driver ID there would at most be 20~ unreleased drivers (including the remaining Yoshi, Shy Guy, Birdo and Pit Crew Toad colours) and 14 unreleased Mii suits (12 crossing off the two coming next Tour), and it's possible some of those unreleased drivers stay that way (we have evidence of a few tracks that appear to have been cut if these theories hold water, after all). This applies to Balloons as well; there seems to be only about 10 or so of those left. The only main collectables that appear to have a lot of quantity left to cover (mainly via recolours / reskins) are Karts and Gliders.

2) Seasons (Tours). The current Princess Tour is Season108, the 97th Tour on the user end (they've skipped a few numbers along the way), and right now in the files they have reserved 9 more Tours after this point (the last of which being reserved during the Yoshi Tour). Like the track IDs, we're getting to a point where they've been prepared far more in advance than previously in the game's life; and they happen to finish up at a very interesting point. Here's all of the reserved seasons, and when the respective Tour should be beginning:
  • Season0109 [June 14th]
  • Season0110 [June 28th]
  • Season0111 [July 12th]
  • Season0112 [July 26th]
  • Season0113 [August 9th]
  • Season0114 [August 23rd]
  • Season0115 [September 6th]
  • Season0116 [September 20th]
  • Season0128 [October 4th, if numbers in-between skipped]
A late September/early October time period is just in time for the 4th Anniversary Tour (which have been in both spots before). The large gap between the last two seasons is notable; that'd be more seasons skipped than the current largest gap, between Peach Tour (Season0022) and Marine Tour (Season0029) in 2020. Difficult to read into fully right now, as more seasons could fill into the gap if/when the current pause on track ID increases ends; but given these are happening simultanenously, and line up with other elements of Tour winding down, it remains suspicious for now.

3) Team Rallies. During the 3rd Anniversary Tour, the way Team Rallies work internally was altered, and only two types no exist: Peach VS Bowser and Mario VS Luigi. This appears to have been done to make them easier to reuse going forward, which feeds further into the idea that notable new content is winding down. That doesn't mean Tour itself would immediately end all services though; the common speculation right now seems to be that after the 4th Anniversary Tour (or early next year at the absolute latest if you give the most generous read to Season0128) they will transition to a repeating cycle of Tours that will feature each track at least once throughout the year; with new kart and glider parts maybe continuing to be released.

It is possible that all of these end up being false positives and mean nothing for the fate of Tour in the immediate feature; only a few months until we can see what happens for ourselves. Don't take this as a guarantee that Tour is done for; but as an analysis of the potential reasons why such a reading is fair right now. I thank the Tour discord servers for doing all of the difficult research into these subjects; all i'm doing is regurgitating it all here, lol.
 
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Third Tour in a row with no ID increases; just closing gaps now. No gap after Peach Circuit either, which rules out of a few of the potential options for the final GBA track after Luigi Circuit. Kinda feel like the writing is on the wall at this point for Tour being near the end of its life.

Mario_Kart_ID_Gap_Q2.png
Interesting that we're at a place where there are about as many ID gaps for new courses as there are for retro courses! Any idea why the dataminers haven't put in MobMD in the speculated tour timeline yet? MobBR, MobDK, and "Rio" are all there as well as Athens Dash 3.
 
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If Tour is ending then they're going out with a bang because they've stacked a ton of never before played tracks for the very end.

Cause it seems like after the Mario vs. Luigi Tour there's only 3 more retro tracks left (GCN Waluigi Stadium + 1 GBA + 1 Wii) whereas we have 5 original courses to go. (2 cities and 3 nitros)
 
If Tour is ending then they're going out with a bang because they've stacked a ton of never before played tracks for the very end.

Cause it seems like after the Mario vs. Luigi Tour there's only 3 more retro tracks left (GCN Waluigi Stadium + 1 GBA + 1 Wii) whereas we have 5 original courses to go. (2 cities and 3 nitros)
I could be very wrong here, but I don't think the 3rd nitro course is coming to Tour. It hasn't been datamined yet (we used to have MOBOR and MOBNU, but Piranha Plant Cove was both). It might actually be a Switch exclusive track to send the Booster Course Pass off with a bang.
 
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I still don't believe we will get Madrid... There are much more significant cities left. Even in Europe alone (Rome). Even in Spain (Barcelona). Much more famous highlights they can get in the track than in Madrid.
 
I still don't believe we will get Madrid... There are much more significant cities left. Even in Europe alone (Rome). Even in Spain (Barcelona). Much more famous highlights they can get in the track than in Madrid.
Ehh, we've also gotten Vancouver which barely has any landmarks at all. Madrid looks beautiful, I hope it gets in.
 
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I still don't believe we will get Madrid... There are much more significant cities left. Even in Europe alone (Rome). Even in Spain (Barcelona). Much more famous highlights they can get in the track than in Madrid.

MobMD is definitely a course with multiple routes at the very least; it has the fence object to block certain routes on different variants; and the ID gap reaching 50 is a telling sign for it hiding more than a single track.

We were wrong on labeling MobOR as being Orlando (it was Piranha Plant Cove; internal name Ocean Ruins) but we’re nearing the end of the line and there’s no other clear gap for a city course left, so MD kinda has to be it. I know MobMU would fall into that gap too, but i’m expecting it to go the way of NU and simply end up being an early label for something else.
 
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Cleaned up the datamined courses section; now that we're seemingly nearing the endgame I think it's necessary:
  • No more Tick-Tock Clock; the one pendulum object people attached to it is almost certainly for something else at this point (much like the objects once tied to Water Park and Bone Dry Dunes). The original denotation of the asterisk doesn't mean much at that point, so instead I think it's more worthwhile to point out which tracks don't currently have ID gaps, as they appear to be at risk of being cut content at this point.
  • Grumble Volcano is probably going to end up removed too if we are getting Lakeside Park, as I imagine the RockVolcano object would end up used there. The other object associated with it (RoadGuraGuraTest) never left Test status, and guragura is a term with meaning outside of it's use in Grumble Volcano's Japanese name (Guragura Kazan; Rumbling Volcano); so odds are it was always an incorrect guess at filenames to begin with. Will keep it present until we do get Lakeside just for the final confirmation.
  • While the remaining N64 course is almost certainly Mario Raceway (due to DS Mario Circuit using its skybox file), I may as well keep Moo Moo Farm open for just two more weeks at this point; no harm in it.
  • Some people believe there may be another GameCube track in the remaining ID gap between Mushroom Bridge and Yoshi Circuit; but since Mushroom Bridge took up half of the gap (was 50 IDs during Bowser Tour; now 26, as Mushroom Bridge accounted for 24) I can't imagine Waluigi Stadium being small enough to hide a third track within.
 
So for retro tracks in Tour, we only have left:

N64 Mario Raceway
GBA Luigi Circuit
GBA Lakeside Park
Wii ?? Moo Moo Meadows ??

And that’s it? Except for a few maybes without ID gaps (which makes it pretty unlikely).

Wow, we’re really in the endgame now. For Tour and for Deluxe.
 
I didn't expect Tour to end before the BCP. It's interesting and rather curious.
I didn't really imagine it going over its 5 years, I could see it stopping adding content in early-mid 2024, but on its 4 years only wow!
 
I didn't expect Tour to end before the BCP. It's interesting and rather curious.
I didn't really imagine it going over its 5 years, I could see it stopping adding content in early-mid 2024, but on its 4 years only wow!
Technically the BCP could end up closing at the same time. Don’t think it happens, but it isn’t infeasible.

Regardless, Tour and the BCP ending within 1-2 months of each other always made a lot of sense to me from a pure development perspective. Didn’t expect them to end Tour development this early though due to monetary purposes.
 
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So for retro tracks in Tour, we only have left:

N64 Mario Raceway
GBA Luigi Circuit
GBA Lakeside Park
Wii ?? Moo Moo Meadows ??

And that’s it? Except for a few maybes without ID gaps (which makes it pretty unlikely).

Wow, we’re really in the endgame now. For Tour and for Deluxe.

+ GCN Waluigi Stadium cause they still haven't added that in from Wave 4 yet

But yeah it's down to 5 retro tracks, and we get 2 of those next Tour with N64 Mario Raceway and GBA Luigi Circuit.
 
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I don't think Tour only having 5 retro courses left is true, or at least we don't know the full picture. We're getting two new tracks in any given Tour. If Tour were to be coming to an end soon, I don't think we'd be getting new content this fast (especially because a lot of these tracks aren't coming to the BCP so there's no reason to rush them out). Maybe Nintendo just cracked down on leaks.
 
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If there’s only 5 retros left, how many retros will be missing when all’s said and done? Excluding MK8 tracks
39
5 from SNES, 8 from 64, 6 from GBA, 9 from GCN, 7 from Wii, and 4 from 3DS.

If you combine 8 Deluxe + Tour there will likely be 28 still missing
 
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Next Mario kart should have all retro tracks and the ones significantly altered should also have original versions included (remade graphics but layout and laps exactly the same).
Also include mega grand prix mode (all SNES tracks, all 64 tracks etc)
 
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Ah, sorry, I meant to specify how many missing from Tour - is that 39 number Tour’s?!
Yup, if everything lines up as speculated, 39 courses will be missing from Tour. 28 will be not be in either 8 Deluxe or Tour. 17 courses have yet to ever return (3 from 64, 3 from GBA, 4 from GCN, 5 from Wii, 2 from 3DS).
 


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