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Discussion How many units will Metroid Dread sell in its lifetime?
- Thread starter Slash
- Start date
I'll go with 3-4 million. Metroid is still a niche IP (comparatively) and 2D Metroids have historically under performed compared to Prime.
Switch sales boost and Nintendo's massive marketing (I can't believe I'm saying that) will push it to 3 million minimum. If the game is special and gets critical acclaim/good word-of-mouth 5+ million is possible.
3 million would be fantastic by itself, and I hope the higher ups would be ecstatic with that number
Switch sales boost and Nintendo's massive marketing (I can't believe I'm saying that) will push it to 3 million minimum. If the game is special and gets critical acclaim/good word-of-mouth 5+ million is possible.
3 million would be fantastic by itself, and I hope the higher ups would be ecstatic with that number
Suiseiseki
Piranha Plant
I expect good results in North America, maybe that alone makes it the best selling Metroid game.
Japan though, absolutely no expectations.
Japan though, absolutely no expectations.
SuperFakerBros
Anti-Artistic Integrity
If it sells in the Fire Emblem: Three Houses range, I think Nintendo will be very pleased. Of course, with proper critical acclaim and good word of mouth, I think it can actually go well beyond that
Aaron
Rattata
Going for a conservative 2-3 million. I think it will obviously be on the best-selling end of the spectrum. I think that 2 million barrier would already be impressive to pass. I do not think it will sell ground-breaking numbers (for the franchise) in Japan.
And my first post here, yay!
And my first post here, yay!
D
Deleted member 2
Guest
a gorillion
CJ_arcadian
Rattata
2.5-3 million seems like the most reasonable range and would, in my eyes, be a great performance for the series. Maybe excellent word of mouth will push it further over time, but I still feel being a 2D game and in a relatively niche genre ( compared to Nintendo's other big hits ) it will hit a sales ceiling before reaching some peoples high hopes. I would be kinda stunned ( in a good way ) to see it move beyond the 4 million range, as that would be moving into or beyond 2D/top down Zelda sales territory, which I think Metroid has always hovered below.
Honestly what I'm more interested in are what Nintendo's expectations are for Dread. It is undoubtedly getting the biggest marketing push of any Metroid since Prime 3 or possibly the first Prime ( I just remember a lot of Prime 3 marketing being tied in to general Wii marketing as it was an early showpiece ) by several orders of magnitude. I really wonder if this was always the plan and they intended for this to be a big return to centre stage from the start of development, or if this big marketing push is a result of seeing how well the game came together in the end and how positive the fan/general audience reception has been and is more of a late game decision, and what the effect has been on their expectations. Despite all this I cant help but feel the biggest guiding factor in their expectations will be the series previous performance so hopefully it is able to blow past their goals.
On a side note
Hi everyone,
Despite all the years of lurking Era and it's predecessors ( I started following Era probably around Jan 2018, largely the weekly sales talk and the main Nintendo threads, and a good amount of retro game/console threads, but I have been following the Japanese sales talk up from Age-GAF-ERA since about 04 or thereabouts ) I never bothered to post anything or even register an account, just content to read along with all the discussion and enjoy all your great and insightful and sometimes funny
(and sometimes terrible) thoughts and comments. Seeing everything sorta implode recently including threads I had checked basically every other day if not daily for years really made me wish I had joined in the community all along. So seeing this as somewhat of a fresh start for the community I decided it was my chance to hope aboard, hopefully y'all don't mind having me around.
Honestly what I'm more interested in are what Nintendo's expectations are for Dread. It is undoubtedly getting the biggest marketing push of any Metroid since Prime 3 or possibly the first Prime ( I just remember a lot of Prime 3 marketing being tied in to general Wii marketing as it was an early showpiece ) by several orders of magnitude. I really wonder if this was always the plan and they intended for this to be a big return to centre stage from the start of development, or if this big marketing push is a result of seeing how well the game came together in the end and how positive the fan/general audience reception has been and is more of a late game decision, and what the effect has been on their expectations. Despite all this I cant help but feel the biggest guiding factor in their expectations will be the series previous performance so hopefully it is able to blow past their goals.
On a side note
Hi everyone,
Despite all the years of lurking Era and it's predecessors ( I started following Era probably around Jan 2018, largely the weekly sales talk and the main Nintendo threads, and a good amount of retro game/console threads, but I have been following the Japanese sales talk up from Age-GAF-ERA since about 04 or thereabouts ) I never bothered to post anything or even register an account, just content to read along with all the discussion and enjoy all your great and insightful and sometimes funny
(and sometimes terrible) thoughts and comments. Seeing everything sorta implode recently including threads I had checked basically every other day if not daily for years really made me wish I had joined in the community all along. So seeing this as somewhat of a fresh start for the community I decided it was my chance to hope aboard, hopefully y'all don't mind having me around.
It's actually kind of scary, because if it doesn't do well then Nintendo has every right to just stop making these types of games. It has nothing going against it.
It's on Switch so it'll sell well. I don't think there's been a single first party game that's underperformed. Pikmin 3 Deluxe and TOK maybe at worst?
Where did you get 5 million from? Last sales update from 2019 was at 2.8m, I would guess it is barely above 3m.
Homura
Boo
- Pronouns
- he/him
Pikmin 3 Deluxe is actually the best selling game in the series.
For some reason I had it in my head it underperformed. Glad to see it sold well
byDoS
Tektite
Actually got my numbers wrong. So sorry about that.
Don't know why I thought Hollow Knight crossed the mark of 5 million units, but looking now for some data to back me up, I've found nothing.
It's so strange. I could swear I read this somewhere...
- Pronouns
- He/Him
I think for sure it breaks past that 3 million glass ceiling. Beyond that I have no idea. Switch factor is switch factor but I dunno if that alone pushes like 5 million+ people to jump into the finale of the Metroid storyline.
Mbolibombo
Tingle
- Pronouns
- He/him
It's going to sell somewhere between 3.5-4M and it's going to be considered a massive success.
July 2018 -> 1.25M
Feb 2019 -> 2.80M
I cant imagine it would just sell 300-400K in almost 3 years after that. I think once Silksong is getting a release date they're going to share new numbers, but I'd wager it would be at the very least at 3.5M and probably higher
July 2018 -> 1.25M
Feb 2019 -> 2.80M
I cant imagine it would just sell 300-400K in almost 3 years after that. I think once Silksong is getting a release date they're going to share new numbers, but I'd wager it would be at the very least at 3.5M and probably higher
Deleted User 1
Self-requested account removal
- Pronouns
- he/him
No that's how much the next DK game will sell
CJ_arcadian
Rattata
I actually think it would have to bomb rather spectacularly ( well below 1 million ) for Nintendo to decide to put the 2D branch of the Metroid series on ice. While not in bomb territory whatsoever, the series hasn't really had a standout performance sales wise since the original NES entry. It seems like the franchise value to Nintendo is more one of legacy and critical appeal, which 2-D Metroid has in spades, and adding variety to their lineup rather than outright sales power. The fact that though not cheap, these games don't really demand the budget of their flagship titles probably helps a lot. All that being said if Dread doesn't preform at least reasonably better than Fusion, I don't think the series will receive a push as big as this ever again.
- Pronouns
- He/Him
sheesh poor zero missionA bit too optimistic here, but I would guess 4 Million, which is significantly above everything the franchise has done.
Blue = Home Console ; Yellow = Handheld Console
Titles marked with * lack official sales numbers
i think a more realistic conservative expectation would be in the metroid1/prime ballpark, optimistically 4 million. i cant see it doing worse than a million.
ok i know its not gonna outsell the series like in my previous post. i would probably put this between ALBW (5.49mil) and Luigis mansion 3 (9.59 mil)
also holy shit i didnt realize luigis mansion is going to hit 10 million. luigi is big time now.
Starphanluke
Paratroopa
- Pronouns
- He/Him
6-7 million. Call me crazy, I don't care.
Prime 4 will sell 10 million.
Prime 4 will sell 10 million.
- Pronouns
- Him
4-5 million easily especially with the amount of systems sold and the promo. It shouldn't be a problem
NateDrake
Chain Chomp
3-4 million.
People are overestimating the game's appeal to the Switch's main base. We saw similar when people expected Fire Emblem: Three Houses to sell 5m+ on Switch. With the Japanese market have little to no interest in the Metroid franchise, the west needs to host considerable interest to propel sales of Dread.
3-4 million when all is set and done.
Easily becomes the best selling Metroid, however.
People are overestimating the game's appeal to the Switch's main base. We saw similar when people expected Fire Emblem: Three Houses to sell 5m+ on Switch. With the Japanese market have little to no interest in the Metroid franchise, the west needs to host considerable interest to propel sales of Dread.
3-4 million when all is set and done.
Easily becomes the best selling Metroid, however.
Mekanos
YOU は SHOCK
- Pronouns
- he/they
Yeah I'm not seeing any reason to think this jump will be any more significant than the boost 3 Houses got. Especially when we can assume Japanese sales will be low.
Beating Metroid Prime's record should be enough cause for celebration, I think.
NateDrake
Chain Chomp
Even if it doesn't, the game can be a sales success. People are assigning far too many arbitrary figures to justify Dread's success. If it sells 2.5, the game is a success & worthy of celebration considering no entry has come close to that figure since Prime 1.
Does Switch present the potential for series growth? 100%. Will it? We'll see; but 3-4m seems like a grounded expectation to hold. Expecting over 5m would require the game's word of mouth to linger for months and for Metroid to bring in a meaningful percentage of the casual audience, which the franchise has continually failed to do and I suspect will remain the case with Dread.
- Pronouns
- He/Him
I agree but I do think great reviews can boost it higher. Especially if it gets lots of buzz around GOTY season
I feel as tho most of us are making these predictions base off this game getting high reviews and accolades. Because otherwise we lower our predictions if it ends up scoring lower then expected.
NateDrake
Chain Chomp
Strong reviews will help to some degree; but I think word of mouth is the more necessary component. Reviews will lead to a some new interest for the undecided but if word of mouth trends towards the game being too difficult -- as an example of potential critique, then it may lead to some reluctance from those undecided buyers.
Holiday sales will likely be based on reviews + word of mouth. Both need to work in tandem to lead to considerable growth.
- Pronouns
- He/Him
I think it will get to 4 million, but yes, any predictions on its sales numbers beyond these initial months depend on the game's potential to become popular or viral over time, and this is very difficult to predict. I'm inclined to say it won't become as popular as that, but due to this large marketing campaign i think at least the launch will be very successful, unless it ends up getting a low score.
CJ_arcadian
Rattata
Unfortunately, I don't think Dread is going to get boundary breaking accolades like game of the year awards even though it looks excellent, this seems to just be an inherent genre limitation with the type of game it is.
More importantly I don't think it will have an extended period of time in the spotlight necessary to reach those high numbers. I think it will review well and be loved by fans of the franchise ( It looks fantastic to me, and I've been keeping myself in the dark after the first 2 trailers to avoid spoilers ) and new players alike, and it believe it will have better legs than the franchise has historically had and a much stronger opening. But their is still realistically a ceiling when you are talking about a game that will be talked about heavily for the first month or two, and then likely gone from the general conversation by the time the holidays are over outside of the circle of core Nintendo fans and Metroidvania genre enthusiasts.
All in all this is definitely the best opportunity the franchise has had in a decade and a half to increase it's fortunes and will hopefully lay the groundwork for a more successful and stable future.
- Pronouns
- He/Him
i think if it can sort of tap into the halloween zeitgeist like luigi mansion 3 did it has potential to do decent.
if it does that, AND deliver on a traditional metroid experience that long time fans can appreciate, i think it'll have legs too.
even if they do ALL that, they're still only looking at 4-5 mil tops. unless it really hits some magic.
if it does that, AND deliver on a traditional metroid experience that long time fans can appreciate, i think it'll have legs too.
even if they do ALL that, they're still only looking at 4-5 mil tops. unless it really hits some magic.
This thread gives me flashbacks of the "Will Three Houses break 5 million?" discussions that happened surrounding Fire Emblem's launch. I think some people get carried away a little too much when making predictions for these kind of franchises that, at the end of the day, just aren't made to appeal to these kind of masses. And that's fine!
I think the floor for Dread will be 2 million units and that on its own is already a huge success for the franchise. After all, that would mean it outsells all 2D Metroids but Metroid 1. I'm optimistic it can break 3 million as well, which would make it the most successful entry in series history, but substantially more than that I personally have a hard time imagining. I don't really see what Dread brings to the table that would make it a breakthrough hit like that. Yes, it'll benefit from Switch's success and I think the market in general is more appreciative of "Metroidvanias" than it was in the past, but I think these factors are already part of the equation when you imagine it selling past 3 million units. It needs more if you want to go beyond 4, 5 or even 6 million.
I think the floor for Dread will be 2 million units and that on its own is already a huge success for the franchise. After all, that would mean it outsells all 2D Metroids but Metroid 1. I'm optimistic it can break 3 million as well, which would make it the most successful entry in series history, but substantially more than that I personally have a hard time imagining. I don't really see what Dread brings to the table that would make it a breakthrough hit like that. Yes, it'll benefit from Switch's success and I think the market in general is more appreciative of "Metroidvanias" than it was in the past, but I think these factors are already part of the equation when you imagine it selling past 3 million units. It needs more if you want to go beyond 4, 5 or even 6 million.
If Mercurysteam is up for another one, then I don't think the sequel barrier is all that high. The budget of Dread will likely have been modest enough not to need millions of units sold to make a profit and a well working relationship with an external studio means that Metroid wouldn't occupy many of Nintendo's invaluable internal resources. When the development machine is going smoothly, then there's not much of a reason to stop.
Naga
Dead or Alive
Said it multiple times in various places, but I think some people are vastly overestimating how it will sell.
MP3 didn't sell better despite a massively bigger userbase to the 2 previous ones (the userbase argument isn't that simple).
It's a full price 2D Metroid game and not a Metroidvania. Hollow Knight was a low price, and Ori is 2+M despite the artstyle and reviews.
Marketing budget isn't much different than before, just better used, and trying to appeal to both old fans and new ones. It's mostly just basic trailers and web updates (unlike live action or big commercials from the past).
There's nothing suggesting it'll sell more than 3M outside of some speculation and a lot of hope. I love Metroid, but it's good to be realistic.
More than 2M would already be fantastic for the series scale, and for a 2D title. It's great to see so much enthusiasm, but that doesn't necessarily translate to sales.
Metroid Prime 4 will very likely be the best selling one ever though.
edit: and remember Nintendo was happy with Samus Returns sales despite its release context and not being a million seller. I'm sure they'll be really happy if it sells "just" 1.5M.
MP3 didn't sell better despite a massively bigger userbase to the 2 previous ones (the userbase argument isn't that simple).
It's a full price 2D Metroid game and not a Metroidvania. Hollow Knight was a low price, and Ori is 2+M despite the artstyle and reviews.
Marketing budget isn't much different than before, just better used, and trying to appeal to both old fans and new ones. It's mostly just basic trailers and web updates (unlike live action or big commercials from the past).
There's nothing suggesting it'll sell more than 3M outside of some speculation and a lot of hope. I love Metroid, but it's good to be realistic.
More than 2M would already be fantastic for the series scale, and for a 2D title. It's great to see so much enthusiasm, but that doesn't necessarily translate to sales.
Metroid Prime 4 will very likely be the best selling one ever though.
edit: and remember Nintendo was happy with Samus Returns sales despite its release context and not being a million seller. I'm sure they'll be really happy if it sells "just" 1.5M.
Pandora
Goddess of Calamity
- Pronouns
- She/Her
While i don’t truly think it will sell 4-5m i don’t think there’s been any compelling reasons for me at this point sales will be extraordinarily limited especially over the course of what will be a long “lifetime” for switch still. Things on switch have been incredibly leggy and switch is just built different than other systems there would have been equally good arguments for why several franchises wouldn’t sell more on switch than they did on wii/ds especially considering userbase and in some cases demographics and they have not really hashed out the way folks have expected. Ultimately i don’t think it matters how it does nor is it gonna be a “disappointment” if it sells just 2m or whatever but i certainly at the least think it will be the best selling metroid to date and has a fair chance to surprise .
Magic-Man
Perseus Jackson
- Pronouns
- He/Him
That's way, way too low IMO. The game is on the best sellers list everywhere, and even sold out on Amazon. If it only sold that much Nintendo would be pissed.
And honestly, I don't really think any of us can guess how much this will sell. This is easily the best circumstances a new Metroid game has had in two or three decades. The Switch is a bestselling system, Nintendo is marketing the shit out of it for once, Metroidvanias have been growing in popularity for years (Hollow Knight specifically becoming an indie sensation), the game has a more cinematic feel compared to its predecessors, and it's launching alongside a new model. There's so much going for it.
FossilPhantom
Cappy
I voted 3-4 million, but I don’t think it will necessarily be easy. High reviews will play a big part in it I think, as if the game reviews to the series usual standards there are more people than ever who will notice that and take interest. Switch does have the most conducive user base to Metroid that Nintendo has ever had, which is why I think it it will be the best selling game in the franchise. However, I do think it being a side scroller will inherently limit its appeal. Unless you have Mario in your title, 3 million is about how high first party side scrollers have been able to go on switch. I do think Star Allies, Tropical Freeze, and Crafted World all have caveats related to their sales performance though, which Metroid shouldn’t have (relatively tepid reception in Kirby and Yoshi’s case, and being a rather unambitious Wii U port for DKC). Metroid is also known for being more difficult than most of Nintendo’s other games, which could be both a pro and a con in gaming today. I think if Dread gets critical acclaim, it can pass 3 million and become the best selling Metroid game, which would be an absolutely awesome result!
Do you think they will be pissed? I mean, isn't Kirby usually in the 1 - 2 range and they are always satisfied with how consistent they do in sales? I am just saying, it's 2D Metroid, so I would HOPE that Nintendo takes 1 million as a win. Unless they for some reason put an insane budget on the game.
Maybe I am being negative. I want to be wrong. It is one of my top 3 series. Trying to remain optimistic it does very well.
My other worry - because you mention Hollow Knight - is I worry that people who have never tried Metroid but love Hollow Knight, may be in for a rude awakening. Meaning, the only common thread is the "exploration" aspect. Honestly, one reason I am not fond of calling Metroid a metroidvania. I feel most metroidvanias play more like the "-vania" or become its own thing (with more of the vania in its dna still), while to me Metroid plays like.... Metroid. This is not a knock on those other games of course, but they are so different. For example, I tried really hard to get into Hollow Knight several times already and I just cannot. I finally gave up because I decided what I wanted was Metroid.
- Pronouns
- He/Him
I dunno. You don't put this much marketing behind a sub-million seller. They have to have higher expectations for this one.
- Pronouns
- He/Him
Oh yeah I’m not saying they’re fine with SR numbers, I mainly meant we’re disappointed with what they consider fine. 2m would probably be a great result for Nintendo even if we were expecting more.
- Pronouns
- he/him
I'd say most of what people like about Hollow Knight that traditional Metroid doesn't have would be the boss fights, but Returns and (from what we've seen) Dread fixes that issue handily
I don't think HK fans will be disappointed with this one (unless they're sticklers about game length, which, to be fair, describes quite a few)
sanstea
Like Like
- Pronouns
- He/Him
I think another big thing is lots of NPCs and quirky characters roaming the world. Metroid goes for the opposite.
It's also one reason why Persona is so much more popular than SMT. People generally don't like extremely isolating experiences.
