How many units will Metroid Dread sell in its lifetime?

[Slash]

The Metroid series has never been a huge seller; the highest selling game in the series, Metroid Prime, only sold 2.84 million units. With the imminent release of Metroid Dread, it begs the question: could this be the best selling Metroid game so far and surpass 3 million copies for once? Plenty of Nintendo series have sold better on the Switch than ever before, like Fire Emblem: Three Houses, Luigi's Mansion 3, and Super Mario Party. With this in mind, could the Switch's massive install base and first party game attach rate lead to Dread being an unprecedented success for the series? How much do you think Samus's latest adventure will sell?

 

[mazi]

5 to 6, easily.

edit: not million, just 5 or 6 copies.

 

[DecoReturns]

I’m terrible guesser so I’ll say

4,384,930 LTD

 

[Phantom Thief]

I think it will reach 5 million lifetime. The stars are aligning:

• Gigantic marketing push
• Loads of hype
• Switch is a system with an engaged enthusiast install base
• Metroidvanias are now part of common parlance of video games, and Metroid as a brand has a lot more cachet due to how many acclaimed games in the last decade are frequently cited as being "Metroidvanias"
• First new major Nintendo first party release in a year and a half

I think this one is it.

 

[Skittzo]

It feels wrong to have these threads without Tbone...

I'm saying 4-5. I think it'll clear 3M in it's launch quarter but probably won't have great legs.

 

[Theswweet]

I want to say it's a shoo-in for best selling in the series. How much beyond that, I don't know.

 

[Vantell]

I think it will sell around 5 million.

 

[Mekanos]

5 million is the ceiling I think. Outside of Mario pretty much every 2D platformer on Switch has topped out at 3 million, and even with the insane marketing push and hype, I can't imagine it going much higher than that. I voted 3-4 million.

 

[Noppie]

Going 3-4. Think it'll be the best selling entry, but not a runaway hit.

Hope it does 5 million+ though. It could, but I'm playing it safe.

 

[Jbone916]

I’m saying 4-5 million, which would be HUGE for Metroid. Here’s hoping!

 

[Sander RX]

Between the marketing push from Ninty and the mighty Switch boost, I'm expecting it to break some franchise records if the quality holds up.

 

[Raccoon]

I'm not a sales guy, but it's totally primed to be the best selling of the series. I'll guess around 5 million (though I was unreasonably optimistic in the poll).

 

[oracion]

I voted for 4-5 million.

 

[Ozzie]

I would say 4 million. It has everything going for it. The marketing is really strong and Nintendo is pushing it really hard. I'm even seeing ads in London near stations and what not and that's rare from Nintendo.

Although, at the same time it could reach 4 million max. I genuinely thought that Fire Emblem Three Houses would reach 5 million easily but it clearly won't (maybe 4 million) and I think it's fair to argue that Fire Emblem is a more popular franchise compared to Metroid.

Who knows, I have strong faith that it will exceed expectations.

 

[MissingNo.]

7 mil+ or bust.

 

[Lovecatt]

26 units

Seriously though 3M+ is my guess 5M+ if it has really good wom/reviews

 

[Mr_No_U]

4 to 5 mil. I hope I’m wrong.

(Wrong as in, I hope it sells more than that).

 

[MondoMega]

At least 1 copy.

Seriously though; i'm not as optimistic as most seemingly are about this. Could it be the best-selling Metroid game? Sure, otherwise i'm not sure if all the marketing focus was worth it. Don't think it'll outsell the original or Prime by THAT much though; 3 million, maybe 4 in the best-case imo.

 

[k samedi]

Should easily be the best selling one. 3 is a lock, not sure how much more it can do but Prime 4 will be the game that delivers the real numbers.

 

[DecoReturns]

At least 1 copy.

Seriously though; i'm not as optimistic as most seemingly are about this. Could it be the best-selling Metroid game? Sure, otherwise i'm not sure if all the marketing focus was worth it. Don't think it'll outsell the original or Prime by THAT much though; 3 million, maybe 4 in the best-case imo.

Same. I think the goal should be 2 million and then everything else is a bonus. That would be great for the returned of the series.

 

[Josh5890]

3 million feels like the absolute floor. 4-5 mil seems like a fair guess.

For the record I went with >6 million

 

[Guaraná]

Something between 3.5 and 4.5... Certainly not more than 5 and not less than 3.

 

[Magic-Man]

I'm thinking it just makes it over the 5 million mark. 3.5 million is the floor, and 6 is the max ceiling.

 

[NabiscoFelt]

4-5 million. Easily the best selling game in the series but 5 million seems like the ceiling for games of its type.

 

[MinionZero]

Nintendo is definitely doing a good job pushing it in the usual spots. More than what we can say about Samus Returns. They definitely want this to be a better performing game for the year.

Knowing that, previous brand releases tell me it won't connect with the general masses, so we should not expect a Animal Crossing type situation. I do expect it to get some decent results, but nothing massive. The Japanese hype is not significant enough to make a big splash there, so we're left with the West to bring it home.

This is the first 2.5D Metroid on console, so we're in uncharted territory. What we do have charted is Metroid on console, but the only "recent release" comparison besides Prime would be Other M. Other M collapsed within itself at launch, so that would be a bad consideration. The other charted territory is 2D Metroid. Outside of the older titles which never passed 3M, the newer 2D games never really reached that level of height and stayed on handheld platforms.

So I think this will comfortably outsell Samus Returns (it only did half a million? and I'm actually sad for Fed Force).
Crossing 2M could happen, but 3M might be where it gets shaky.
I want it to go higher - Switch hype and all - but I think if you look at other Nintendo IP in that zone of fanbase, it has a bit of a ceiling. I chose 2-3M, but I think the ceiling is 4M. Will gladly eat Chozo.

 

[Mercury_Sagit]

I think the minimum would be 2M considering how aggressively Nintendo has been marketing this game to get everyone on board (seriously just look at the reports, those are massive!). The ceiling can be anywhere between 3 and 5M depending on the following factors :

- Considering install base: NSW is absolutely supportive to all kind of software, and especially so to Platformers and Metroidvania in general thanks to constant stream of indie releases (previous consoles don't have this, even 3DS). Though Metroid Dread is still 100% Metroid and 0%-vania, I personally don't expect this to be a hindrance sales wise. So the ceiling of Metroid Dread's sale would depend a lot on the game itself.

- Considering the game: to penetrate the general audience, I think acessibility would be very important, and I only expect this to materialize after reviews drop. If I have to make a hazard guess, so far Dread seems less hand-holding than Fusion (thanks ADAM) but still more accessible than Super and SR with expanded moveset and modern control scheme. So it will be reviewed more favorably in this regards compared to past releases and enjoys sales closer to 5M than 3M.

 

[404LinkNotFound]

Same. I think the goal should be 2 million and then everything else is a bonus. That would be great for the returned of the series.

I agree
This is a 60 US dollar release, at 2 million Nintendo would already be happy with that. Alot of profit

 

[SlightlyMadGames]

3.5 Million should be possible for Metroid Dread

 

[evilmonkey]

2.5 million would be a good result. 3 million and above would be a huge overperformance.

 

[Heruderu]

I’m going with 3 million first quarter, 4-5 million lifetime. But I think 3 million is an achievement by itself. Hopefully it gets there.

I’ve done my part!

 

[tender]

i think it will do 6+.

just a feeling.

 

[KC Hazel]

4.2 million. I feel like that's a pretty bold number. I think Nintendo would be super happy if it cleared 3m.

 

[ArchedThunder]

Due to increase in interest in the genre, a heavy marketing push, lots of hype and finally most Nintendo IPs selling better on Switch I think it’ll sell 4-5 million.

 

[Obsonet]

Bit over 3 million, just about be the best selling Metroid.

 

[z1ggy]

imo around 3 mill

 

[Phendrift]

I really don’t feel like I can predict until we see reviews/WOM. That’s going to be extremely important for this game in particular I feel

 

[sanstea]

I hope it crosses 3 million.

 

[Argot]

Yeah, it being a 2D entry has me thinking more in the 2-3 million range unless it really breaks out, especially since you can't really count on Japan to chip in a significant amount. Those would still be pretty great numbers for a largely outsourced 2D game imho.

 

[Skittzo]

I really don’t feel like I can predict until we see reviews/WOM. That’s going to be extremely important for this game in particular I feel

Reviews maybe but I don't really see WoM being much of a factor for this game. This is as "core" a game as Nintendo makes, I'd be a bit surprised if it had halfway decent legs. It should sell most of its copies in it's launch quarter.

Unless it's like a once in a generation type game like BotW in which case the ceiling will shoot way past 10m.

 

[TheGreatLugia]

My gut says 2-3 million, but I hope it sells even more. 3 million would already make it the best selling entry.

@Slash By the way, I'm not sure if those numbers for Zero Mission, GBA Metroid 1, Prime Pinball, Prime Trilogy, Other M, Federation Force, and Samus Returns are accurate. Officially, I believe we might only know that none of those releases sold 1 million lifetime.

 

[Deleted user]

5-6 million

 

[NabiscoFelt]

Reviews maybe but I don't really see WoM being much of a factor for this game. This is as "core" a game as Nintendo makes, I'd be a bit surprised if it had halfway decent legs. It should sell most of its copies in it's launch quarter.

Unless it's like a once in a generation type game like BotW in which case the ceiling will shoot way past 10m.

I honestly don't think even BoTW-tier reviews would shoot the ceiling that high

I just don't think there's that much of an audience for 2D Metroid regardless of how much acclaim it gets

 

[YoboD]

I agree with everyone saying it should become the best selling in the series, Switch factor always helps and the series absence really feels like it's almost amplified the reverence and demand for it. If it gets great reviews and word of mouth I could see 4-5 million.

 

[byDoS]

2-3 million is my (safe) bet. I can't see a first party exclusive metroidvania doing more than that, even on Switch.

Hollow Knight broke genre records across the board selling more than 5 million units, but it's on 300 consoles.

 

[Deleted user]

I agree with everyone saying it should become the best selling in the series, Switch factor always helps and the series absence really feels like it's almost amplified the reverence and demand for it. If it gets great reviews and word of mouth I could see 4-5 million.

It will sell well regardless of reviews if its genuinely good. IMO, most people see reviews as a joke.

 

[Skittzo]

I honestly don't think even BoTW-tier reviews would shoot the ceiling that high

I just don't think there's that much of an audience for 2D Metroid regardless of how much acclaim it gets

Yeah that's true.

The main thing I think it has going for it that most other 2D games don't is the full 3D cinematic cutscenes. I feel like that can draw the attention of some people who typically aren't interested in 2D games.

 

[Gartooth]

Somewhere in the range of 3 to 3.5 million is my guess.

Prime and Metroid 1 are both the current top sellers at around 2.8 million, so I'd like to see Dread take the record.

 

[Red Monster]

I’m not a sales guy so I’m basing this off hype, hopes and dreams - I’m gonna say five million lifetime.

 

[J.T.]

I'll go with 4-5 million. Metroid's typically lower sales offset by Switch's insane software selling ability.

 

[AquaWateria]

2-3 million is my prediction because even though Metroid is getting some of the best marketing from Nintendo it's still a Metroid game at heart. Legs will definitely be an important factor to consider if Metroid is to sell beyond 3-5 million copies. That would mean it would do better than games like Fire Emblem, Kirby, and DK which is would be crazy in my eyes.

I just hope once the hype settles down that people won't get disappointed when Metroid lands somewhere between 2-3 million copies. For me, that would be an incredible sales milestone for a 2D Metroid game and something to be proud of. Sales definitely seem to be frontloaded.