Alovon11
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To use DLSS you need an NVIDIA RTX GPU
Any of them will work, just needs to be a RTX card, or the MX570 (I think) on laptops as the minimum
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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)
- Thread starter Dakhil
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Any of them will work, just needs to be a RTX card, or the MX570 (I think) on laptops as the minimum
D
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I think at this point, we all get it, but now that we have a couple examples of FSR 2 on consoles, we can see how it doesn't invalidate DLSS on Switch.
FSR 2 is obviously a net win for CP2077. It's producing a better image, and in a few cases, it's using a lower input res than the old TAA, which can create some small performance wins on the edge. But there is the rub - there was already a solution in place, so the huge performance wins just aren't there. A respectable image quality win, but no huge perf win.
Because every AAA game (and, as engine support becomes mature, every AA game) uses upscaling, trading a small amount of shader hardware for tensor hardware is going to be a win on chip size, on power draw, and on performance. The fact that DLSS also tends to provide a superior quality image to FSR is really just a bonus.
Concernt
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Honestly this video had me giggling literally hours after I watched it. "Random B*tchless Memory"
"Goofy ahhh device."
While I don't like, necessarily, that they were used, the fact ass is censored but b*tch, a sexist(ish) slur, isn't, is very funny to me.
Concernt
Optimism is non-negotiable
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Speaking of production and RBM- I mean, RAM, I really hope our Inkling(heh) about 12GB of LPDDR5 is right. It seems to be likely, and it would put Nintendo consoles right slap bang in the middle of the memory game this gen, firmly planting them as "back in the high performance home console space"- by force of will, despite being a handheld. If all we see happening truly comes to pass, there should be a LOT of "ports" of Series X|S and PS5 games. No longer an arduous, and possibly expensive prospect, when you already need to make a version for the 10GB of (albeit faster) RAM in the Series S or Microsoft will stand in your way.
ReddDreadtheLead
#TeamLate2025WithAPotentialForEarly2026
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Noooo!
Looking back at the thread marked info that LiC posted, I missed that it refers to them as “NX device” and “NX product”
When nvidia also has NX but they don’t refer to it as device in that sense.
Concernt
Optimism is non-negotiable
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I don't quite understand what you're trying to say here, could you rephrase? Sorry.
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ibb.co
That 10 gb on series s, is actually less than 8gb available to devs.
While the Os reservation on Switch is currently 750 mb. We can assume it will be increased on Drake, but I doubt it will match the others.
ReddDreadtheLead
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https://famiboards.com/threads/futu...nology-speculation-st.55/page-517#post-413799I don't quite understand what you're trying to say here, could you rephrase? Sorry.
Nvidia refers to NX as a product, an implementation and a device.
Which isn’t the same as their own NX products, ORIN NX, XAVIER NX. Who aren’t a device, but subset products of existing products that have the same implementation (ie, they do not differ).
Pardon my ignorance but what does this mean? The FY3/25?FB4932-E8-543-B-4828-BF7-B-D939396-A4-ED5 hosted at ImgBB
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Is it like, Q3 of FY2025? So around October-November 2024?
ReddDreadtheLead
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It’s not like they use 16GB anyway. PS5 uses like 12-12.5 for games, and Series X has 13.5GB for games but it has a unique memory configuration.
So, 10.5-11GB of memory for games assuming they keep it small still and pretty lean.
Drake will be targeting a lower fidelity in the end, and if it ends up with 12GB of memory it wouldn’t be that far from the PS5.
Series S struggle is more apparent in that, it’s 7.5GB for games, give or take, and then it jumps 4.5-5GB and 6GB respectively for the other two.
I think a GB or 2 for Drake not having it is ok for the bracket it’ll be in, and it does not need 16GB. However 8GB (so 6.5-7GB for games) would make it a lot harder than the last time which was 3-3.2GB vs 4.5-5GB.
Series S was 7,5gb at launch, and pretty recently it got increased by “several hundred megabytes”, so now it’s at least 7,7.
I think that document is predictions from a finance website.
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Nintendo is currently in FY 23. FY 24 starts next April. FY 3/25 translates to holiday season (Oct, Nov, Dec) in calendar year 2024.
But i somehow doubt Nintendo would blatantly put something like this in an earnings slide.
ReddDreadtheLead
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That’s not going to really save it… it’s still a large gap between it and the Other two consoles. And the increase in memory for the series S is only if the developer chooses to disable features on the system when a game is playing. Such as disabling recording for example.
It’s like adding a bucket of water to a pool that contains several thousand gallons of water, like yeah there’s more but it’s still a far cry from the other two pools that can hold even more water.
I know what it is, I’m asking what FY3/25 means.
If it is supposed to mean Q3 of FY25 then I know where it is supposed to be. But it says FY3/25. Is that supposed to be Q3 of 2024? because it reads as though it is saying fiscal year 3, the switch is entering FY7 in April.
This is more like a prediction I assume from one of the investors, and they see Nintendo prolonging the lifespan of the device. I don’t know how, but they foresee them lengthening it.
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Oh sorry, got that wrong then.
I assume it's Q3 since this is an analysis about earnings. Since earnings are done in Q per FY, it somehow makes sense for me to see it as Q3.
I don't really put a lot of weight into analyst predictions about when hardware is coming. The set of information they're working with isn't really conducive to accurately predicting a process that has to be put in motion so far ahead of time.FB4932-E8-543-B-4828-BF7-B-D939396-A4-ED5 hosted at ImgBB
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ReddDreadtheLead
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I think it’s supposed to mean “March/2025”
as March is the 3rd month of the calendar year, and the FY ends there for Nintendo.
“We look for next-generation hardware to launch in FY3/25 or later, and while details here remain unclear, the company has not ruled out backward compatibility with older consoles. We see profits continuing to trend gradually higher amid the migration to the new platform.”
Basically taking into account what I said, if I’m right, they look forward to next generation hardware releasing in the FY ending 2025, or later. So April 1,2024-March 31, 2025 is what they are saying they expect for new hardware.
So they are not expecting hardware before April 1 2024, just sometime after March 31, 2024. Or later.
Concernt
Optimism is non-negotiable
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Excuse my ignorance, but the formatting to me implies FY23/24
And they just dropped the 2?
So, fiscal year starting April 2023?
Edit:
Nah, Redd's explanation makes way more sense.
Anyway this clearly doesn't track with the info we've collected here, this is just a financial analyst getting high on their own supply, I think. Or maybe I just WANT TO write it off as fumes. Hope it's just fumes...
ReddDreadtheLead
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It makes no sense for them to do that, since they did it again for “FY3/25”
and it’s not “FY23/25” that wouldn’t make sense with the rest of the passage. To me anyway.
Dude_lookinatleak
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Honestly I'm surprised you found that funnier than Drake nearly popping a cap at Shigeru Miyamoto
Dude_lookinatleak
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Damn this thread is gonna have 3000 pages if the Switch successor launches in 2025.
I hope Nintendo™ do a collab with the famous rapper Drake, as he will be a major part of the system itself along with 1 GB of RBM.
Concernt
Optimism is non-negotiable
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Random Bowser Memory
It's a bespoke kind of memory developed specifically to accelerate the kind of data produced by implementing Fury Bowser. All Switch 2 games will now either look like PS2 games or contain Fury Bowser.
But seriously, I'm still team March 2023. No way it's 2025.
The factory leak was reliable. You don't start test production four years in advance.
Dude_lookinatleak
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ReddDreadtheLead
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Actually there’s no correlation for that. It’s simply testing. It can go either way.
And it’s not saying 2025, it’s saying anytime within the fiscal year that ends in 2025, which is March 31st 2025.
That means they expect it sometime in the span of April 1st, 2024 to March 31st, 2025. And if not then, they expect it after that window.
It’s not saying it’ll launch in 2025.
FY25=/=CY25 for Nintendo. It means the year that spans from the above date before this quote.
And before anyone says anything about how it’s dubious because Nintendo isn’t consistent, they’ve been fairly consistent as of late and clearly moved to that formatting.
Dude_lookinatleak
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I mean being fair launching in 2025 would be on time for Nintendo saying they want an 8-10 year life span of the Switch. It would also mean they have time to tweak the energy needs of the processor to balance battery life and performance.
ReddDreadtheLead
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They never said that.
That’s nvidia, not Nintendo. And they leave it to a supercomputer to do this.
So 92% of the work doesn’t really involve humans.
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Concernt
Optimism is non-negotiable
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I still think that timeframe is extremely unrealistic. Given the factory worker said that testing was in May, and speculated it would launch sooner than later. I'd bet they meant a new backplate in MASS production. Plus the processor has been finalised. 2025 is... Yeah, no.
And before someone goes off about 2025 Vs FY 2025.
FY2025 includes March 2025.
If it launches in FY2025 I will eat a Joy-Con on camera.
Plus, I'd personally say I trust Nate over Citi when it comes to this stuff. Again, maybe I'm just being too hopeful.
ReddDreadtheLead
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No more perverse than humans making humans.
I couldn't resist posting this img in this context. ^^
You’re reading way too much into this, just because it includes March does not mean it is going to release in March or close to it, the whole purpose is a window or timeframe for which they are making their prediction/speculation on.I still think that timeframe is extremely unrealistic. Given the factory worker said that testing was in May, and speculated it would launch sooner than later. I'd bet they meant a new backplate in MASS production. Plus the processor has been finalised. 2025 is... Yeah, no.
And before someone goes off about 2025 Vs FY 2025.
FY2025 includes March 2025.
If it launches in FY2025 I will eat a Joy-Con on camera.
Plus, I'd personally say I trust Nate over Citi when it comes to this stuff. Again, maybe I'm just being too hopeful.
They have set aside a whole year which the majority is in the former(2024), not the latter(2025). Just because it includes March and that is in the year 2025 should not be read more than “they expected in the fiscal year after the next one”, nothing more than that. They are basically saying they expect it for 2024.
And if not in 2024, they expect it for the following FY ending in 03/26. Meaning the year 2025 is where they really expect it.
The only time you’d even consider the last 3 months would be in an extreme circumstance.
They aren’t going to operate by the calendar year.
Also as an aside, I personally find the idea of believing a random person on the internet over say, an analyst in the industry an interesting idea. Funny, but interesting nonetheless.
That said, and once again, I want to emphasize that this is simply a prediction by the analysts at Citibank.
Hell, it quite literally says this:
“We update our forecasts based on Q2 results and our follow-up with the company; we leave our target price unchanged and continue to rate the shares Buv. We forecast FY3/24 OP of +9.5% YoY premised on the launch of multiple major new titles, a recovery in Switch hardware supply, steady growth in Nintendo Switch Online and other digital revenue, and margin improvement on the back of SG&A optimization. We look for next-generation hardware to launch in FY3/25 or later, and while details here remain unclear, the company has not ruled out backward compatibility with older consoles. We see profits continuing to trend gradually higher amid the migration to the new platform.”
OP-Operating Profit.
Thank you for that, I forgot we have a resource in install base that has even a dictionary of sorts for these phrases. Actually I’m lying, I didn’t even know we had that there.
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No more perverse than humans making humans.
Psssshhhht, don't tell poor C-3PO, his CPU might melt if you tell him.
Concernt
Optimism is non-negotiable
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A "random internet person" who's gotten these details right before, backed up by Bloomberg, who has also been right before, versus a... Bank?No more perverse than humans making humans.
You’re reading way too much into this, just because it includes March does not mean it is going to release in March or close to it, the whole purpose is a window or timeframe for which they are making their prediction/speculation on.
They have set aside a whole year which the majority is in the former(2024), not the latter(2025). Just because it includes March and that is in the year 2025 should not be read more than “they expected in the fiscal year after the next one”, nothing more than that. They are basically saying they expect it for 2024.
And if not in 2024, they expect it for the following FY ending in 03/26. Meaning the year 2025 is where they really expect it.
The only time you’d even consider the last 3 months would be in an extreme circumstance.
They aren’t going to operate by the calendar year.
Also as an aside, I personally find the idea of believing a random person on the internet over say, an analyst in the industry an interesting idea. Funny, but interesting nonetheless.
That said, and once again, I want to emphasize that this is simply a prediction by the analysts at Citibank.
Hell, it quite literally says this:
“We update our forecasts based on Q2 results and our follow-up with the company; we leave our target price unchanged and continue to rate the shares Buv. We forecast FY3/24 OP of +9.5% YoY premised on the launch of multiple major new titles, a recovery in Switch hardware supply, steady growth in Nintendo Switch Online and other digital revenue, and margin improvement on the back of SG&A optimization. We look for next-generation hardware to launch in FY3/25 or later, and while details here remain unclear, the company has not ruled out backward compatibility with older consoles. We see profits continuing to trend gradually higher amid the migration to the new platform.”
OP-Operating Profit.
Thank you for that, I forgot we have a resource in install base that has even a dictionary of sorts for these phrases. Actually I’m lying, I didn’t even know we had that there.
I think I'll side with the people in the gaming and technology industry over the finance industry when it comes to gaming technology.
Truno
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A "random internet person" who's gotten these details right before, backed up by Bloomberg, who has also been right before, versus a... Bank?
I think I'll side with the people in the gaming and technology industry over the finance industry when it comes to gaming technology.
Bloomberg has been dead silent about Nintendo's hardware for over a year. Mochizuki's only official coverage this year was that misinterpretation of Nikkei's reporting, which went against Nate's reporting of late 22/early 23:
Additionally, Nate's info is from October of last year and he has also been very quiet as of late. You shouldn't disregard analyst's opinions so quickly imo
Thraktor
"[✄]. [✄]. [✄]. [✄]." -Microsoft
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We shouldn't disregard it, as it's this person's job to stay informed about these things, but it's still a prediction, not a statement of fact. Honestly I'm not that concerned about secondary sources (ie analysts, leakers, insiders, etc.) these days, as we already have multiple primary sources to rely on now, directly from Nvidia.
The hack earlier this year showed that work was started on the new device sometime in late 2019 or early 2020, and that by early 2022 there was a largely full-featured SDK in place built around the T239 chip. That start date would be consistent with an initial plan of releasing sometime in late 2022 or early 2023. Of course this could have been delayed, and plans can always change, but we recently saw Nvidia start pushing upstream commits for T239 into the Linux kernel. This isn't something you see until manufacturing has started (or at least engineering samples are available), and indicates the chip has started, or is soon to start, full scale manufacturing.
Therein represents my issue with the prospect of a significant delay. If Nintendo had pushed back to, say 2024, earlier this year, Nvidia wouldn't have started manufacturing. If they had pushed back by a year or more then that's something you really want to do before tapeout, as a good design for 2023 is not the same as a good design for 2024. They could have taken the year to modify the chip, either back-porting some Ada features, or migrating to a different manufacturing process. Once tapeout is complete and manufacturing starts, you've pretty much passed the point of no return.
Hypothetically speaking let's say Nintendo has made the decision for a year-plus delay after the start of manufacturing, in the last couple of months or so. This is basically the worst possible time to do so, as Nintendo would effectively have three choices:
- Stockpile chips, as their contract with Nvidia almost certainly would have included a minimum order in the first year. These chips would then be sitting in a warehouse, depreciating in value for a year or more. They don't have a chance to adjust the chip for the revised release window.
- Stop manufacturing and restart later. Again, they likely have a minimum order in their contract with Nvidia, and would almost certainly have to pay a hefty penalty to get out of it, but may be cheaper than stockpiling. This also prevents them from adjusting the chip for the new release window.
- Cancel manufacturing and work on a new version of the chip. Allows them to adjust the chip to account for the new release window, but comes at signifiant cost. Not only would they likely have to pay hefty penalties for pulling out of their commitment to Nvidia on the original chip (after almost 100% of the R&D dollars have been spent), but they would also have to pay significant additional R&D costs to design this new version of the chip and go through the full tapeout, verification and manufacturing process all over again.
Truno
Koopa
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yohoopzcrazy
Cappy
Please correct me if I'm mistaken, but to my understanding, the new chip being used in a new Shield device is actually expected at this point - and good news to us. If T239 was exclusive to Drake, we wouldn't be seeing those linux kernel commits. Besides, the new chip being used by Nvidia for their own products is probably a deal done by Nintendo and Nvidia, used to sweeten the deal (i.e. reduce R&D costs, etc.), which could reflect in Drake being priced more aggresively against the other consoles - much like what happened with the Switch and the Tegra X1.
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This sounds kind of like not launching Switch until Mariko.
kimbo99
Spirit Detective
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"Nintendo, can you do something for me! Nintendo, can you do something for me!"
Release the successor in 2023!
I wouldn't be surprised if that was a joke tweet. but a new shield isn't unreasonable for binned chips. the question is why they'd use this instead of binned Orins
though at that, they just might be using both. shaved down Drakes and Orins to be the same spec (4 cpu cores? 6?) and put them into a dump product. would make for a really nice ARM test platform with a strong gpu at least
Stinky Horse
Bob-omb
If the Wii U wasn't a dud that would have been fine
ReddDreadtheLead
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It’s simply a prediction and nothing more.A "random internet person" who's gotten these details right before, backed up by Bloomberg, who has also been right before, versus a... Bank?
I think I'll side with the people in the gaming and technology industry over the finance industry when it comes to gaming technology.
I think them not using is more easily explained by the target of what Shield occupies. ORIN, even binned, are >450mm^2 dies.
While Drake would be much smaller and much easier to deal with.
if Nvidia is going back to the tube design, then yea, I can see it being too big. but if they do the original design, they won't care. which design is cheaper, I guess.
I seen this posted before, and dont understand the logic.
The shield is likely to have less conservative clocks than Nintendo. If a chip aint good enough for Nintendo, it isnt for the Shield either.
I think the most likely usecase for binned Drakes, are jetson boards.
depends on how and why the chip is binned. if it can't reach Nintendo's clocks, then it'll probably be turned to sand. if some partitions don't work, being shaved down for Shield makes sense. same if it doesn't hit power consumption targets as Shield would be much more lenient
quite frankly, with Orin scaling up and down as much as it does, I'm more inclined to believe that Drake doesn't have too much use outside of nintendo products and would quicker be recycled than binned.
ReddDreadtheLead
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The shield would be competing with the likes of the Apple 4KTV which can fit within a $150 range, it would be more expensive than that who uses a much newer node to boot.
Thraktor
"[✄]. [✄]. [✄]. [✄]." -Microsoft
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The fact that support is being added to the Linux kernel means it’s definitely being used for devices other than the Switch, and a new Shield TV is a good bet. However the Shield TV isn’t anywhere near a big enough business for Nvidia to warrant manufacturing a chip just for it. The current model is using the Mariko chip that was manufactured for Nintendo, and I’d expect that if there’s a new Shield TV it will again make use of whatever’s in place for Nintendo.
It’s a valid question to ask if T239 is designed purely for Nintendo or if there are other uses intended for it, but looking at the chip, and Nvidia’s market for SoCs, it really seems like something developed for Nintendo first and foremost. Nvidia’s focus on SoC development for quite a few years now has been automotive and robotics, with an emphasis on machine learning performance, hence lots of tensor cores, DLA (deep learning accelerator) and PVA (programmable vision accelerator) and other blocks like that. From what we know, T239 doesn’t fit that market at all. It has half the tensor core performance per SM than Orin’s GPU, no DLA and no PVA. It looks a lot more like a design built around maximising traditional GPU performance over ML performance (ie a chip for a gaming device). There’s also the FDE (file decompression engine), which is on T239 but not T234 (Orin), which seems very much like something you’d add to a game console SoC.
There are potentially other devices which could use a chip like this (like the Shield TV), but none of them are big enough to justify the R&D expense outside of Nintendo. Nvidia were floundering in the consumer SoC market until Nintendo came along, and you’ll notice that they haven’t announced a consumer SoC since Switch launched (prior to that, there was about one every two years). T239 is the first SoC designed for consumer devices in years from Nvidia, and it’s not a coincidence that it’s linked to Nintendo.
Does a streaming box really need 8 CPU cores and a 12 SM GPU? If Nvidia release a new Shield TV, they’ll be selling it on the basis of support for the newest codecs, and possibly HDMI 2.1/8K output or whatever. I don’t see them funding game ports to the hardware like they did last time around, as they have GeForce Now, which seems like a better avenue for gaming on that kind of device. For the Android game that users might play on it, even 6 SMs would probably be overkill. My guess is they take defect-binned (not voltage-binned) T239 chips, with maybe 4 CPU cores (clocked higher than Nintendo will) and 6 SMs.
I also don’t expect binned T239s to end up on Jetson boards at this point. They’ve already announced the Jetson Orin Nano, which uses binned Orin chips and slots in where I would have expected Drake. It’s also missing the double-performance tensor cores, DLA, PVA, etc., so it’s just less suitable for Jetson that an binned Orin would be.
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