• A new Metroid event is now active. Come join the fun over in Aurc's thread!


StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation |ST|

Dekuman

Koopa
Pronouns
He/Him/His
How do you guys think Nintendo is taking the news that both Sony and Microsoft won’t release a new console till 2028? Would this affect whether Nintendo drops a pro or switch 2 next year? With this news I think it’d make more sense for Nintendo to release a pro next year and ride it till 2026
They probably already knew about it long ago. Either directly told or via their contacts and industry intelligence gathering

For example Microsoft may have given them a rough idea of their roadmap since the Series S look well placed as a platform the Drake based Nintendo console can get ports from. Ensuring Nintendo won't be an odd man out. I think some level of coordination happened there. Though certainly can't be proven until someone blabs in 10 years
 

Truno

Cappy
Pronouns
He/Him
How do you guys think Nintendo is taking the news that both Sony and Microsoft won’t release a new console till 2028? Would this affect whether Nintendo drops a pro or switch 2 next year? With this news I think it’d make more sense for Nintendo to release a pro next year and ride it till 2026

This report has no impact on the release date for Nintendo's next-gen console
 

niconiconick64

Octorok
Banned
How do you guys think Nintendo is taking the news that both Sony and Microsoft won’t release a new console till 2028? Would this affect whether Nintendo drops a pro or switch 2 next year? With this news I think it’d make more sense for Nintendo to release a pro next year and ride it till 2026
Considering their last consoles release dates (including mid gen refreshes) they won't skip 2024 without releasing pro versions of the ps5 and series S/X.
 
OP
OP
Dakhil

Dakhil

2010 experience points!
Founder
How do you guys think Nintendo is taking the news that both Sony and Microsoft won’t release a new console till 2028? Would this affect whether Nintendo drops a pro or switch 2 next year? With this news I think it’d make more sense for Nintendo to release a pro next year and ride it till 2026
I don't think Nintendo really cares about when Microsoft and Sony release the next-gen consoles.

To me, Nintendo's new hardware, from a spec standpoint, seems more like a next-gen console than a mid-gen refresh. But of course, how Nintendo's new hardware could be advertised to consumers from Nintendo's side is unknown.

I think when Microsoft and Sony release the next-gen consoles is probably one of the last factors Nintendo takes into consideration when deciding when to release Nintendo's new hardware.
 

Hermii

Paratroopa
How do you guys think Nintendo is taking the news that both Sony and Microsoft won’t release a new console till 2028? Would this affect whether Nintendo drops a pro or switch 2 next year? With this news I think it’d make more sense for Nintendo to release a pro next year and ride it till 2026
Wouldn’t affect Drake whatsoever. They’re way past the point of no return.
 

KMStwo

Cappy
Pronouns
He/his/him
How do you guys think Nintendo is taking the news that both Sony and Microsoft won’t release a new console till 2028? Would this affect whether Nintendo drops a pro or switch 2 next year? With this news I think it’d make more sense for Nintendo to release a pro next year and ride it till 2026
For what reason does it make more sense?
I don't even think Sony or Microsoft's plans affect Nintendo's decisions. Even realistically, will they push the hardware they plan to release in 6 months just because of some news on the internet?
 

Z0m3le

Shriekbat
How do you guys think Nintendo is taking the news that both Sony and Microsoft won’t release a new console till 2028? Would this affect whether Nintendo drops a pro or switch 2 next year? With this news I think it’d make more sense for Nintendo to release a pro next year and ride it till 2026
I think what is really interesting, is 2028 lines up with the next possible mainline Zelda release, giving 5+ years is pretty reasonable, with twilight princess in 2006, skyward sword in November 2011, botw a little over 5 years later in March 2017 and now totk in May 2023 (6 years here, but if it is waiting for Drake, this could make a lot more sense, given that we know Nintendo has finished games being held for release schedule reasons) a new Zelda in 2028 is reasonable, and if it releases alongside "Switch 3" it could actually have 6+ months of sales before PS6 and XBNext, which could be a very good thing.
 

oldpuck

Koopa
Contributor
Pronouns
he/him/his
Folks have already pointed out that this announcement won’t have any affect on Nintendo just because it can’t. It takes years to design a console, and this announcement comes too late to drastically affect Nintendo’s plans, regardless of where Drake was in dev.

But also the market forces that force MS/Sony to have an 8+ year generation have existed for sometime and are part of why Nintendo is moving. The long cross gen period and the fact that mobile SOCs have a longer runway that bleeding edge APUs butting up against quantum limits give a Nintendo a catch up period that allows them to take advantage of the market till 2030
 

John Omaha

Piranha Plant
How do you guys think Nintendo is taking the news that both Sony and Microsoft won’t release a new console till 2028? Would this affect whether Nintendo drops a pro or switch 2 next year? With this news I think it’d make more sense for Nintendo to release a pro next year and ride it till 2026
They're sticking to whatever roadmap they established several years ago. I don't get where this idea that Nintendo can change their hardware release plans on a whim comes from. Is it because they have a history of sitting on finished software, or delaying it for strategic reasons, so people assume they will do the same for hardware?

It's actually Microsoft and Sony who are in a position to drastically change course at the moment, as they are likely in the very early design stages of their next-gen consoles.
 

LiC

Member
They're sticking to whatever roadmap they established several years ago. I don't get where this idea that Nintendo can change their hardware release plans on a whim comes from. Is it because they have a history of sitting on finished software, or delaying it for strategic reasons, so people assume they will do the same for hardware?

It's actually Microsoft and Sony who are in a position to drastically change course at the moment, as they are likely in the very early design stages of their next-gen consoles.
Thank you. It absolutely kills me to see people implying that Nintendo can decide not just when to release a console, but what kind of console to release, for next year based on something like a news report from this week. That's to say nothing of the relevance of the information itself, which is, uh, none.

Although, rather than having wrong ideas about Nintendo and hardware development, I wonder if the problem is just that people don't even think about the practical reality at all, and instead it's basically a form of projection -- when we learn any tangentially related news, people here want to scrutinize it for all possible implications for hardware, so in their minds it's become that this information is all really important to the discussion of hardware, so it follows that it's important to the hardware plans themselves.
 

ShadowFox08

Like Like
We were thinking that because we were assuming it will only be a Switch Pro or at most an iterative model releasing in 2020/2021.

Now we are talking of a release more than 6 years after the Switch. I'm pretty sure at that time if anybody speculated on the specs of a next Switch in 2023, they would have never expected only docked og Switch performance in portable mode or at most 1.6Tflops.

I have been saying it again and again but the next gen Switch we heard since 2019 has always been this Drake model. We just assumed it was a Pro or an iterative model for some reason(The v2 and Oled rumors didn't help either).
I wasn't expecting TX1 personally though. Wasn't sure what I was expecting. Some of us were thinking of Xavier initially early on in 2019.
As a recommendation to those who want to live the hybrid gaming experience (portable/home) plus the library of games that Nintendo Switch offers, do not hesitate to buy or use the system.

From my perspective there will not be an improved version of this system, at first I thought that there would be a direct successor following the same scheme, but I have analyzed the situation and I think that Nintendo will take a different path.

There is already public evidence that Nintendo is opting for a new system and I insist again, TotK has the key to the development of this system, just as Link is the avatar in the game, our hand(s) will mark a before and then in gameplay.

This is how I think the next system will be:
  • VR/AR (revolutionary HMD)
  • New controller (Not JoyCoin)
  • Console (Not Hybrid).

As I said before from the first TotK trailer the use of 3D effects was observed, let's add the 3D sound and the fact of the arm that controls the stage. If you see it from a historical point of view, Nintendo has done the right thing, using technology that allows it to evolve. And the easiest way to move a user to another system is to offer a whole new experience. Even releasing blockbuster titles before the new system will allow you to afford this new system, I think we won't see a new TotK trailer until the new system is unveiled.
Yeahh, very unlikely dude. Nintendo isn't going to abandon hybrid consoles anytime soon, nor ditch the Switch which is selling so well now. Combining their handheld and console resources together as one was the best thing they did in a while. It's their lightening in a bottle. And as someone else said before, they aren't going to abandon the switch anytime soon. I do fully expect Drake to be a hybrid console with joycon support. They likely would offer improved joycons out of the box.

I think their best bet is Drake, and treat it like a PS4 to PS5/xbone to x series transition, with multiplatform support for 1st parties for several years.
Considering their last consoles release dates (including mid gen refreshes) they won't skip 2024 without releasing pro versions of the ps5 and series S/X.
We'll see... Chips are more expensive enough as it is with shortage, which is expected to last to 2024. Sony at least already increased the cost of PS5. Sony has sold +19 million PS5 consoles as of May. Maybe they can get to 30 million by end of year. Things are going to take longer... I don't think Sony will reach PS4's install base of 3 years, with 4 years with PS5.
 
Last edited:

antonz

Rattata
Pronouns
He
Sony and MS Delaying til 2028 just benefits Switch 2 or whatever it ends up being called. It closes the gap from Switch to the PS5 and Xbox quite a bit so if they are going to do another extended generation to get as much out of the PS5/Xbox as they can it means Switch 2 is better placed to retain support from the Current Gen Consoles. By the time PS6/Xbox ? comes out Nintendo could potentially be getting ready for another Generation.
 
Last edited:

John Omaha

Piranha Plant
Is that really a "delay"? The gen hasn't even started despite being 2 years old
No. Even if we go by the current generation’s timeline, the PS5 entered development in 2015, about two years after the PS4’s launch. You can’t delay something that is barely in the early planning stages.
 
0

oldpuck

Koopa
Contributor
Pronouns
he/him/his
Thank you. It absolutely kills me to see people implying that Nintendo can decide not just when to release a console, but what kind of console to release, for next year based on something like a news report from this week. That's to say nothing of the relevance of the information itself, which is, uh, none.
It’s frustrating but I get it. Products are shrouded in such secrecy folks don’t have a sense of how long the process is. And when the marketing shows up the marketing will position it relative to the immediate environment as if it had been a reaction. It’s frustrating, but understandable that the average person doesn’t get how slow it is to turn the ship.

This is a difference Nintendo has from Sony and Microsoft. Those two have such synced release cycles (and a shared tech partner) that they wind up in an arms race trying to anticipate the other’s moves. With clocks speeds and RAM tweakable at the last minute, and with both companies being willing to take a loss means that the final positioning really can be a reaction to what the other guys did 6 weeks ago.
 
Here’s a question. Series X and PS5 can run Witcher 3 with RTGI at 30fps in 4K. (I guess we don’t know if that’s native 4K or with FSR? Let’s pretend it’s close to native 4K for this question)

Do you think Drake could pull off RTGI, having some help with hardware accelerated RT, at like 540p or 720p? I know at 540p the 1080p result you get from DLSS may not be great but still.
 
Here’s a question. Series X and PS5 can run Witcher 3 with RTGI at 30fps in 4K. (I guess we don’t know if that’s native 4K or with FSR? Let’s pretend it’s close to native 4K for this question)

Do you think Drake could pull off RTGI, having some help with hardware accelerated RT, at like 540p or 720p? I know at 540p the 1080p result you get from DLSS may not be great but still.
the witcher is more than likely 1080p with FSR2.

for the witcher, it's possible. the question is how much could they turn down the settings while keeping the ray tracing. assuming the RT mode is 1080p, the RT is most likely ¼ resolution. if everything else was turned down and RT was kept at ¼ resolution, then maybe? note that RT resolution would be 270p in docked mode and 180p in handheld mode. might be too low for handheld mode though, but we'll see.
 
the witcher is more than likely 1080p with FSR2.

for the witcher, it's possible. the question is how much could they turn down the settings while keeping the ray tracing. assuming the RT mode is 1080p, the RT is most likely ¼ resolution. if everything else was turned down and RT was kept at ¼ resolution, then maybe? note that RT resolution would be 270p in docked mode and 180p in handheld mode. might be too low for handheld mode though, but we'll see.
You think quality mode will only be 1080p? Yeah I guess that makes more sense, I don’t know what I was thinking. Turkey brain at the end of the day haha.

Thanks for running the thought experiment for me. I’d be happy if we just got RTAO on the Drake build
 
0

Z0m3le

Shriekbat
Thank you. It absolutely kills me to see people implying that Nintendo can decide not just when to release a console, but what kind of console to release, for next year based on something like a news report from this week. That's to say nothing of the relevance of the information itself, which is, uh, none.

Although, rather than having wrong ideas about Nintendo and hardware development, I wonder if the problem is just that people don't even think about the practical reality at all, and instead it's basically a form of projection -- when we learn any tangentially related news, people here want to scrutinize it for all possible implications for hardware, so in their minds it's become that this information is all really important to the discussion of hardware, so it follows that it's important to the hardware plans themselves.
I do think that next gen being 2028 or later could be relevant to Nintendo though. If they are transitioning to an iterative generations strategy, then 2028 would give 5 years+ for Drake powered Switch on the market, that puts it along the Zelda mainline cycle for their hardware too, and any release for "Switch 3" between Spring 2028 and Spring 2029, would fall in line with next gen consoles from Sony and Microsoft, not because Nintendo is lining up with them, but because that is the timing of Zelda and generally with mobile hardware, 5 to 6 years is a huge amount of time for hardware that is ~2 years dated by the time it originally released anyways. (this includes Drake).

It will be interesting to see how that generation plays out, because the tech inside all of them should push 4K just fine and I'd assume a "switch 3" wouldn't fall meaningfully behind those consoles in hardware, outside of memory bandwidth probably.
 

Hermii

Paratroopa
I do think that next gen being 2028 or later could be relevant to Nintendo though. If they are transitioning to an iterative generations strategy, then 2028 would give 5 years+ for Drake powered Switch on the market, that puts it along the Zelda mainline cycle for their hardware too, and any release for "Switch 3" between Spring 2028 and Spring 2029, would fall in line with next gen consoles from Sony and Microsoft, not because Nintendo is lining up with them, but because that is the timing of Zelda and generally with mobile hardware, 5 to 6 years is a huge amount of time for hardware that is ~2 years dated by the time it originally released anyways. (this includes Drake).

It will be interesting to see how that generation plays out, because the tech inside all of them should push 4K just fine and I'd assume a "switch 3" wouldn't fall meaningfully behind those consoles in hardware, outside of memory bandwidth probably.
I do think they can wait until at least 2030 for Drake successor.

1 because of the inievitable cross gen period of MS and Sony consoles. Games will still be made with the series s a a common denominator.

2 Because it would give mobile tech another couple of years to catch up, to minimize the gap. Launching at the same time as Sony/ MS will just put them at further disadvantage.
 

Z0m3le

Shriekbat
I do think they can wait until at least 2030 for Drake successor.

1 because of the inievitable cross gen period of MS and Sony consoles. Games will still be made with the series s a a common denominator.

2 Because it would give mobile tech another couple of years to catch up, to minimize the gap. Launching at the same time as Sony/ MS will just put them at further disadvantage.
This logic is revolving around what Sony and Microsoft are doing, which I just don't agree with, Nintendo plans things out years in advance, they were already working on the Switch and with Tegra X1 in summer 2014, they aren't looking to plan a release of hardware around what Sony and Microsoft do, they just have to plan around what they are doing. Also Switch is almost 6 years old, it was just as dated as Drake is about to be whenever it releases next year, Drake will show it's age around the same time and without the lead way of the unique hybrid concept because there are now competitors, the market won't be nearly as forgiving with the performance of the device after 4 or 5 years.

Nintendo also usually plans software releases about hardware, but before we make it a big argument or something, I'm not disagreeing that Nintendo couldn't release "Switch 3" in 2030, I'm just saying that 2028 is the earliest valid year that a successor to Drake makes sense, and I'm more thinking that it would happen between Spring 2028 and Spring 2029, rather than just a single quarter, because I do think Drake could last on the market for 6 years before a successor comes.
 
I do think that next gen being 2028 or later could be relevant to Nintendo though. If they are transitioning to an iterative generations strategy, then 2028 would give 5 years+ for Drake powered Switch on the market, that puts it along the Zelda mainline cycle for their hardware too, and any release for "Switch 3" between Spring 2028 and Spring 2029, would fall in line with next gen consoles from Sony and Microsoft, not because Nintendo is lining up with them, but because that is the timing of Zelda and generally with mobile hardware, 5 to 6 years is a huge amount of time for hardware that is ~2 years dated by the time it originally released anyways. (this includes Drake).

“This might be relevant if we assume a, b, c, and d.”

Come on, stop stretching and contorting every story. Not every data point is relevant, especially for hardware.

1. We don’t know if it’s some iterative statrstgy. You made the same argument back on ResetEra (in 2019!) as to why they should launch a Pro. Switch 2 with BC lunched ~7 year after Switch 1 isn’t some interactive strategy. It’s a normal cycle. I’ve argued this much many times.

2. Zelda cycle. This is assumption on top of assumption on top of assumption. You wouldn’t have guessed it would take until 2023 to launch a sequel to BOTW and you’re not gonna guess the timing of the next one.

3. As has been said by many, Nintendo doesn’t plan it hardware around a direct reaction to Xbox/Sony. Those two need to launch at the same time as they complete for a new installed base, but not Nintendo.


I’m annoyed when people who can’t get this cycle right create some narrative around how x headline will effect the next Nintendo cycle in 2028 😕

This “release date” is unlikely to changing its plans due to this headline.
 

AxkilAvenger

Cappy
Pronouns
He/him
As someone stated earlier, say Nintendo learned of this way earlier than we are learning now. Like years earlier. Surely this would affect their decisions going forward. I mean they must be planning on getting robust 3rd party support on their future system so it’d be in their interest to watch what Sony and Microsoft are doing?
 
As someone stated earlier, say Nintendo learned of this way earlier than we are learning now. Like years earlier. Surely this would affect their decisions going forward. I mean they must be planning on getting robust 3rd party support on their future system so it’d be in their interest to watch what Sony and Microsoft are doing?
Hardware has homogenized through widely supported apis. You can guarantee that whatever they do will be based on the road maps of those apps. And future Nintendo systems will also be based on that
 

mariodk18

Install Base Forum Namer
“This might be relevant if we assume a, b, c, and d.”

Come on, stop stretching and contorting every story. Not every data point is relevant, especially for hardware.

1. We don’t know if it’s some iterative statrstgy. You made the same argument back on ResetEra (in 2019!) as to why they should launch a Pro. Switch 2 with BC lunched ~7 year after Switch 1 isn’t some interactive strategy. It’s a normal cycle. I’ve argued this much many times.

2. Zelda cycle. This is assumption on top of assumption on top of assumption. You wouldn’t have guessed it would take until 2023 to launch a sequel to BOTW and you’re not gonna guess the timing of the next one.

3. As has been said by many, Nintendo doesn’t plan it hardware around a direct reaction to Xbox/Sony. Those two need to launch at the same time as they complete for a new installed base, but not Nintendo.


I’m annoyed when people who can’t get this cycle right create some narrative around how x headline will effect the next Nintendo cycle in 2028 😕

This “release date” is unlikely to changing its plans due to this headline.
It's a speculation thread. I don't know that telling someone to "stop" connecting data points is going to accomplish nor do I think it makes sense. There are no right or wrong answers 8 years from now and I'm not sure who it hurts. Not sure what "'especially' for hardware" means either.

You are free to argue your own interpretation of the Switch's lifecycle and its hardware iterations. Even if someone made an argument 3! years ago, who's to say one way or the other that Nintendo's hardware cycles are or aren't normal, when in fact most people think of Nintendo as anything but. And if it is a "normal" cycle, wouldn't going off of their past average hardware cycles (~6 years) make sense? I've argued that point many times.

With regards to the "zedla cycle" being assumptions- people are allowed to make assumptions if they so choose. And they can, in fact, change their assumptions as they learn and discover new information. It isn't fair to tell people what they wouldn't have guessed and it's even more unfair to tell people that they won't guess it. Is that a challenge or something?

I'm sorry that you feel annoyed that other people don't share the same perspective of Nintendo hardware cycles as you. But you, as an infrequent poster, aren't going to ask nor tell anyone in this speculation thread what they can't speculate on. And certainly not to a veteran, well researched, well respected member of this thread and forum, such as Z0m3le.

No one is hurting anyone in here or "creating narratives". If we're wrong, then so be it. It's not any skin off of our backs. But I notice that you seem to pop in every so often when people start to draw their own conclusions from various types of comments and discoveries. In fact, I believe the last time you were in this thread was a couple of months ago, if not more, when many people in here were pointing out how Nintendo's R&D expenditures were a lot higher than past years and increasing YOY. And all I remember about your contributions was your efforts to downplay or hand wave discussions around the potential greater significance of that spending.

If it wasn't that exactly, it was definitely around some investor reports/comments/financial info that you felt was insignificant. Regardless, my impression of you has been that you don't buy into what the majority of the regulars here have been cooking. Which is fine. But I would request that you allow others to freely express their opinions and instead try to ask questions with regards to theories that conflict with your own.
 

Raccoon

North American vermin
Pronouns
He/Him
It's a speculation thread. I don't know that telling someone to "stop" connecting data points is going to accomplish nor do I think it makes sense.
I think this response overstates both their authority and intent: telling someone to stop a line of argument is just another way of telling them they disagree with a line of thinking
 

Aether

Bob-omb
With all that say "they cant just push it back and sit on it"... with current JIT production pipelines, sure.

Back in the 90ties? different world. Back then i could see it being a possibility, and many people still see production in that perspective, you produce, and have produced stuff in a warehouse till it gets sold.
While that is not the reality anymore (for the most part), if was the reality in many fields for most of our modern world.
The way tech is developed, its often years out from cutting edge to mass release,
i had a lot of frustrating talks with tech inclined people that even for pretty up to date stuff talked about it as if its ancient tech, cause they do not compare it to the available products on the market, but some prototypes and stuff like that. Heck, i remember back then when there was an uproar that the new consoles (PS4, XBOne) are not 4k... when most high end PCs could not handle 4k proper for 3-4x the price.

Never the less:
a zelda in 2028...i could see it. Yeah, i assume they have a ton of ideas they could not implement because of the limitations (technical AND because they are reusing the engine and world of BOTW), so i would not be surprised it the team already started prototyping the next one, while the bulk is finishing up and polishing TotK, and a small team of younger employees doing some DLC development.

In reagrds to Nintendo releasing "pro" now and a successor 2026... 2006 would be the worst moment.
It would not be able to keep up with the next generation at all, and from what we gathered the "pro" would already be mostly where switch was last gen compared to PS5. All a 2026 release would do is bring the PRO up closer to current gen... so no new potential for multiplat games then there already is.
 
0

Z0m3le

Shriekbat
“This might be relevant if we assume a, b, c, and d.”

Come on, stop stretching and contorting every story. Not every data point is relevant, especially for hardware.

1. We don’t know if it’s some iterative statrstgy. You made the same argument back on ResetEra (in 2019!) as to why they should launch a Pro. Switch 2 with BC lunched ~7 year after Switch 1 isn’t some interactive strategy. It’s a normal cycle. I’ve argued this much many times.
Vash your post is complete nonsense. All I said was that the next device after this one could come out between Spring 2028 and Spring 2029, that this would be the earliest that would make sense at 5+ years after Drake. I don't see some large narrative that I'm "stretching and contorting" out of Sony and Microsoft's plans.
2. Zelda cycle. This is assumption on top of assumption on top of assumption. You wouldn’t have guessed it would take until 2023 to launch a sequel to BOTW and you’re not gonna guess the timing of the next one.
The Zelda assumption, well they have launched several successful platforms with a Zelda game, including the nation wide launch of the NES in the US, with Zelda reaching American shores just before September 1986. (When you could find it outside of their 2 test markets). Thing is Zelda has never gone more then ~6 years without a new mainline game.
3. As has been said by many, Nintendo doesn’t plan it hardware around a direct reaction to Xbox/Sony. Those two need to launch at the same time as they complete for a new installed base, but not Nintendo.
I'm saying that Nintendo might independently launch new hardware 5 to 6 years after Drake, it's not some fantasy, Nintendo has only released 1 piece of hardware they have had on the market without a successor for 7 or more years, and that is the Gameboy (1989 to 1998 with the GBC) and that platform was suppose to have a successor in 1996 but the CPU power draw from the custom ARM processor was too high and ran too hot to use in a handheld.
I’m annoyed when people who can’t get this cycle right create some narrative around how x headline will effect the next Nintendo cycle in 2028 😕
I'm annoyed that some people come in to speculation threads like this one, which is clearly in the title of the thread, and expect factual news, concrete information, and insider knowledge at 1000 batting average.
This “release date” is unlikely to changing its plans due to this headline.
If you had read my post more carefully, you'd have seen that I wasn't speculating that Nintendo was scheduling their hardware release around Sony & Microsoft, but rather that Sony & Microsoft might release their hardware around Nintendo's by pure chance, only based on all of Nintendo's history of hardware lifetime before a successor.

Just cool it on the dumping, you can also just scroll past posts you don't like, they get buried faster when you don't reply anyways.
I think this response overstates both their authority and intent: telling someone to stop a line of argument is just another way of telling them they disagree with a line of thinking
It's a fairly aggressive one that hurts discussion on this thread. We've gone pages on a rumor from last year that was completely illogical, and that is fine enough when it's current, but the rumor was a year+ old and derailed the thread for a while. There is also a doom cycle constantly in this thread, where we end up talking about the same worries, even when we have evidence like the Nvidia hack and Linux updates for Drake, that indicate the opposite of whatever is brought up.
 

Dekuman

Koopa
Pronouns
He/Him/His
On the implication of the 2028 date in other threads and potential reactions by Nintendo, I'll restate my point in the other thread that Nintendo would not have 'just found out' about this expectation this year. They probably knew around the time this date was set internally at Microsoft, which may have been in 2019 when Drake started development either was told it directly by Microsoft and or Sony or it was sussed out by their own people , supply chain partners etc.

It's probably wrong to say Nintendo would have no reaction, but if there was one, they've already baked it in long ago as they would have had this knowledge for years at this point.
 

ReddDreadtheLead

Chain Chomp
Y’all done lost y’all damn minds if you think we are(read: I am) going to seriously entertain a successor’s successor when the first successor isn’t even on the market yet…. Especially with using competitors who don’t register on Nintendo’s plate for when or what they’ll do next.


Lost y’all minds. I only signed up for one train ride, and my next stop is soon™️
 
Last edited:

Z0m3le

Shriekbat
On the implication of the 2028 date in other threads and potential reactions by Nintendo, I'll restate my point in the other thread that Nintendo would not have 'just found out' about this expectation this year. They probably knew around the time this date was set internally at Microsoft, which may have been in 2019 when Drake started development either was told it directly by Microsoft and or Sony or it was sussed out by their own people , supply chain partners etc.

It's probably wrong to say Nintendo would have no reaction, but if there was one, they've already baked it in long ago as they would have had this knowledge for years at this point.
yeah, I think the point that microsoft and sony might have accidently lined up with Nintendo's plans, is more likely than Nintendo planning their release around Microsoft and Sony, a 2028 or 2029 launch for Nintendo is just not out of the question and seems the most likely dates to me, and as I said before, 2030 is certainly in the cards for Nintendo, I just think 5 or 6 years for Drake without a successor, is probably about right, and should give enough time for another Zelda game, BotW only took something like 50 months after it started full development in jan 2013 (BotW's GDC talk in 2017).
Y’all done lost y’all damn minds if you think we are(read: I am) going to seriously entertain a successor’s successor when the first successor isn’t even on the market yet…. Especially with using competitors who don’t register on Nintendo’s plate for when or what they’ll do next.


Lost y’all minds.
I'm just idly speculating, nothing series, though seems a lot of people want to make it seem like these are serious discussions.
 

niconiconick64

Octorok
Banned
Iterating on SNES brought N64 and GC
All of which were playable to some extent on Wii and the WiiU.
The thing people don't realize is how userbases on nintendo platforms migrate across generations. Both software and hardware-wise.

I'd like to ponder: how many units LESS the WiiU would've sold had it not been backwards compatible with the Wii? not that many you may think? okay, let's say it would've been about ~1-2 mi units less than the 13mi units sold. Now, imagine that out of these 1~2 mi people who bought a WiiU with Wii games in mind (exclusively or not, doesn't matter) let's say at least half of them contributed to the purchase of a brand new WiiU title?
That's about 500k to 1mi units sold for a piece of software. How is that not relevant?

Better yet: what exactly is nintendo going to do with the thousands, if not millions of unsold cartridges for switch titles once the new hardware drops and sales for the previous console tank?

They always had a solution to that across generations from the GC and up. And their portables had it better way before the GC came out.

I would indeed believe in the possibility of nintendo throwing the towel on BC with the switch 2 had the switch used a bogus architecture like the PS3 or even something more common like the PS4's (yet way different than what we know from drake leaks).
 

AxkilAvenger

Cappy
Pronouns
He/him
Y’all done lost y’all damn minds if you think we are(read: I am) going to seriously entertain a successor’s successor when the first successor isn’t even on the market yet…. Especially with using competitors who don’t register on Nintendo’s plate for when or what they’ll do next.


Lost y’all minds. I only signed up for one train ride, and my next stop is soon™️
I’m gonna take blame on this. I had asked yesterday if anyone thought that Nintendo knowing that Microsoft and Sony planning to launch their next console in 2028 would affect Nintendo’s decision to maybe release a pro version next year and a truly new switch around 2028. I was purely speculating and wanted your guys opinions. That is all. Totally speculation.
 

niconiconick64

Octorok
Banned
The thing people don't realize is how userbases on nintendo platforms migrate across generations. Both software and hardware-wise.
And expanding upon this comment:
Has anyone here ever took some time to think about how many people had their first DS experiences on a 3DS? Or how many people had their GBA experiences on the DS Lite?

I mean, obviously they aren't the majority. But I definitely believe the reason nintendo kept on investing on BC multiple times with their consoles throughout generations is because the percentage of these kind of customers they have isn't irrelevant.


On a sidenote: I don't know why people are impressed at how much pokemon games sell like, do people really not realize the likeliness of a huge chunk of SV sales coming from SWSH and PLA buyers? The numbers themselves line up really well too if you think about it.
Not only that, but the way the franchise incentivizes moving forward across generations.
 
0

ReddDreadtheLead

Chain Chomp
I’m gonna take blame on this. I had asked yesterday if anyone thought that Nintendo knowing that Microsoft and Sony planning to launch their next console in 2028 would affect Nintendo’s decision to maybe release a pro version next year and a truly new switch around 2028. I was purely speculating and wanted your guys opinions. That is all. Totally speculation.
All good and fun, just personally I am not going to really entertain/ bother with the conversation before a successor releases, or even so soon after a successor releases. The time I’ll start to even entertain speculation on the next generation piece of hardware will be several years after the successor drops, and if there’s sufficient interesting rumblings going on for me to even bother with it. I already only believe that the likeliest/earliest system could launch is the holiday 2023, and regardless of what anyone else says, I will not be persuaded or change my opinion on this. So I really choose just personally to not talk about the switch 3 so soon on when it’s going to release.


Nor do I think Sony and Microsoft’s decisions have any impact on Nintendo especially now when they barely started.

Emphasis on that personally above.
 
Last edited:

Z0m3le

Shriekbat
All good and fun, just personally I am not going to really entertain/ bother with the conversation before a successor releases, or even so soon after a successor releases. The time I’ll start to even entertain speculation on the next generation piece of hardware will be several years after the successor drops, and if there’s sufficient interesting rumblings going on for me to even bother with it. I already only believe that the likeliest/earliest system could launch is the holiday 2023, and regardless of what anyone else says, I will not be persuaded or change my opinion on this. So I really choose just personally to not talk about the switch 3 so soon on when it’s going to release.


Nor do I think Sony and Microsoft’s decisions have any impact on Nintendo especially now when they barely started.

Emphasis on that personally above.
Yeah I hope we don't just start talking about "Switch 3" after Drake drops, I think 2027 or so is when that discussion will make sense for me to start speculating on it, we've been speculating about upgraded switch hardware for 6 years and a month right now, so I want a nice break personally, but idly speculating about when that console might release, just an open guess, no rumors, no ideas about hardware... Sure. The interesting part is if it did launch alongside the next Playstation and Xbox, how would that effect market leaders? If Drake continues to do really well and crosses 100m units itself, I think it could be very interesting how next gen plays out with a Nintendo "Switch 3" half a year on either side of next gen consoles launching.
 
Vash your post is complete nonsense. All I said was that the next device after this one could come out between Spring 2028 and Spring 2029, that this would be the earliest that would make sense at 5+ years after Drake. I don't see some large narrative that I'm "stretching and contorting" out of Sony and Microsoft's plans.

The Zelda assumption, well they have launched several successful platforms with a Zelda game, including the nation wide launch of the NES in the US, with Zelda reaching American shores just before September 1986. (When you could find it outside of their 2 test markets). Thing is Zelda has never gone more then ~6 years without a new mainline game.

I'm saying that Nintendo might independently launch new hardware 5 to 6 years after Drake, it's not some fantasy, Nintendo has only released 1 piece of hardware they have had on the market without a successor for 7 or more years, and that is the Gameboy (1989 to 1998 with the GBC) and that platform was suppose to have a successor in 1996 but the CPU power draw from the custom ARM processor was too high and ran too hot to use in a handheld.

I'm annoyed that some people come in to speculation threads like this one, which is clearly in the title of the thread, and expect factual news, concrete information, and insider knowledge at 1000 batting average.

If you had read my post more carefully, you'd have seen that I wasn't speculating that Nintendo was scheduling their hardware release around Sony & Microsoft, but rather that Sony & Microsoft might release their hardware around Nintendo's by pure chance, only based on all of Nintendo's history of hardware lifetime before a successor.

Just cool it on the dumping, you can also just scroll past posts you don't like, they get buried faster when you don't reply anyways.

It's a fairly aggressive one that hurts discussion on this thread. We've gone pages on a rumor from last year that was completely illogical, and that is fine enough when it's current, but the rumor was a year+ old and derailed the thread for a while. There is also a doom cycle constantly in this thread, where we end up talking about the same worries, even when we have evidence like the Nvidia hack and Linux updates for Drake, that indicate the opposite of whatever is brought up.

While we disagree on this issue/topic, I still respect your view on many things.

Let’s move on as friends.
 

KMStwo

Cappy
Pronouns
He/his/him
To be fair, iterating on the Wii brought the WiiU. Iteratin on SNES brought N64 and GC
I agree with the N64 and GC but I don't agree with the Wii U. The Wii U tried it's own thing aka the gamepad. This was not a needed addition but Nintendo trying things no one asked and the gamepad brought along it, it's own problems. Iterating on the Wii would have just brought a Wii 2 with improved performance and improved motion controls. The main hook would still have been the motion controls.
 

oldpuck

Koopa
Contributor
Pronouns
he/him/his
wild speculation

Nintendo will almost certainly supplement the control scheme for this thing. Some new input, some new output. The only time they've never done that was the GBC. Even the Switch itself has the IR camera, as secondary to the experience as it is.

"Nah, they'll just make an enhanced Switch" has been my default opinion for a while, and obviously no one could have seen motion controls or dual screen play coming. So speculating on the next thing is a little ridiculous.

But it does strike me that the Switch is, in many ways, a second draft of the Wii U. And that with the incredibly beefy SOC in the device, and the likely 720p screen still attached, that there is plenty of power left over to drive a second screen experience from handheld mode.

Streaming to the TV from handheld mode, via a dock with a wifi, would enable Wii U like experiences without forcing a WiiU like form factor, or making Wii U like experiences form the core of the gameplay. Most of the Wii U's relevant library has come over, but a few games like Nintendoland still exist, and games like them would have the advantage of releasing on a successful "normal" console.

Similarly, the hardware could allow simple streaming of existing games via screen mirroring, a more generically useful social feature, as well as opening up the Wii to receive DS ports as the Wii U did on the virtual console. Potentially that sort of software stack also opens up the sort of cartless multiplayer that the DS did so beautifully, another example of in person multiplayer that is tremendously fun and in nintendo's wheelhouse while being somewhat finicky to take off.

I would love to see something like this, the hardware we know of seems to make it viable, and the only thing you have to believe is that the LAN Dock isn't slated for Drake. I admit this is totally unsubstantiated, but after months of benchmark comparisons, it's nice to be able to have a little bit of Nintendo fan fiction that isn't immediately wrong.
 

ShadowFox08

Like Like

I'm still blown away that handheld on Drake is gonna be 3-4x more powerful than docked switch, and that's just raw flops numbers and not Ampere architecture and DLSS.

I remember before Orion and the switch pron days, we were thinking we were gonna get docked specs in handheld (also easy for devs), while docked performance would be similar to what we are guessing for handheld on Drake now (1.2-1.6 tflops). We've really come far.
I should mention that it's also pretty wild to think handheld Drake could potentially match Steam Deck performance with a much lower power draw and without DLSS.

If Drake ends up with at least 1.5 GHz CPU clock speeds with 7 cores for gaming, single core performance should match SD's 3.5 GHz with 3 CPU cores. But SD can't match max GPU clock speeds at 1.6GHz and 3.5GHz CPU at the same time due to thermal bottlenecks anyway.

correct me if I'm wrong (someone who has an SD), SD will start losing losing CPU turbo clock speeds, when the GPU is set to 1.2 GHz or higher. So something like a 1.2Ghz GPU and a 3GHz CPU could me more realistic in demanding games. SD runs +20 watts for the most demanding games at the highest settings (like Eldon Rings), which is pretty crazy.

Crazy to think we can get 1-1.6 TFLOPs GPU, 1.5GHz 7 core CPU, and likely similar RAM bandwidth in handheld mode for 10 watts or less potentially on a 5nm node maybe. RT is an unknown factor though in power draw and performance, but DLSS could help..

Not that Drake is competing with SD or anything, but I do think it's the minimum benchmark before series s (half the CPU power), and people will compare the two regardless, until SD 2 comes.
 

Polygon

Moblin
Pronouns
Him
It's always the same people with sub 500 posts that attack @Z0m3le out of no where then make note they didn't like him on resetera or neogaf. That's a lot of time spent rent free in someone's head to now attack him on here rofl... get a grip.

@mariodk18

Well said !
 
OP
OP
Dakhil

Dakhil

2010 experience points!
Founder
Streaming to the TV from handheld mode, via a dock with a wifi, would enable Wii U like experiences without forcing a WiiU like form factor, or making Wii U like experiences form the core of the gameplay. Most of the Wii U's relevant library has come over, but a few games like Nintendoland still exist, and games like them would have the advantage of releasing on a successful "normal" console.
I'm probably the only one who thinks so, but I think a feature similar to Miracast could potentially make a Drake equipped Lite model a much more desirable product for consumers to buy. (Perhaps in the hypothetical scenario where Nintendo's new hardware equipped with Drake has a 1080p 120 Hz (non-seamless) VRR OLED display, and where a Drake equipped Lite model has a 720p 60 Hz OLED or IPS display, Nintendo could set the max resolution and refresh rate of the feature similar to Miracast to 720p 60 Hz for the Drake equipped Lite model, and 1080p (VRR possible wirelessly?) 120 Hz (here and here) for Nintendo's new hardware.)
 
I also thought about the possibility of streaming to the dock

Sometimes I catch myself thinking about the possibility of Nintendo adding Wi-Fi to the dock, so we can replicate the wii u capabilities.

Edit: just to clarify: not for every game. Just for selected titles they believe it could work great. I'm sure they had some cool ideas of mechanics (asynchronous multi-player) they didn't implement on the Wii U because of the poor performance [in sales]

And I really hope Nintendo will come with better motion control (VR ready). I believe there's still a lot of potential on this even for 'flat games'. I would also include in the box a precise capacitive stylus so we could play DS on handheld mode (using just the tablet in portrait, with virtual buttons when needed).
 
0


Top Bottom