Manufacturing seems imminent, if not already begun. Linux drivers are out, Orin is well past its initial deliveries. We're not a year+ out from launch. I don't know how Nintendo launches this device in the next 9 months, but it seems obvious they're going to.
It seems like Nintendo can't do a big Next Gen rollout, because they've not been softening the ground for it, and there isn't a lot of time.
It seems like Nintendo can't do a New 3DS drop-it-in-a-direct style launch, because it's a giant upgrade.
So they'll either have to do something that seems wrong, or invent a third thing. A generational leap in an identical form factor is a totally new thing for Nintendo, and there is no way to "solve" the launch strategy puzzle by stringing together precedents. I could make a persuasive argument against any launch timing you like.
"It launches with Tears of the Kingdom, which has upgrades for Drake" - What, and cannibalize Zelda sales? Supply will be limited, and players will hold back till they can get the new device so they can have the full Zelda experience! Extreme backlash from the fans who have been waiting since 2019 for a game and now only have the "lesser" experience
"It launches with TotK, but TotK has almost no upgrades for Drake, same as the other cross-gen Zelda games" - This is a generational leap in technology! Wii had motion controls, Switch had portability - why would you launch hardware with a launch title that doesn't show it off? Why would Zelda be your launch title, if it doesn't play any better on the device you're trying to launch?
"it launches before TotK, Q1 2023" - When? And with what title? Announce in January for, what, a March release? That's 6-8 weeks of lead time, that's nothing. What could possibly be the launch title that we don't know about? How is there a big title in H1 2023 that isn't ground to a paste by Zelda, or we haven't heard of? You're saying there is a 3D Mario that is going to go out with 6 weeks of warning? Or maybe no title at all?
"it launches after TotK" - When do they announce it then? E3, launch in October? If you're going to wait till the Switch is 6.5 years old to announce new hardware, why not just do an ordinary generational style launch, get the time pressure off, set yourself up for success.
"It announces March but launches in September, with a nice 6 month promo window" - again, you're going to just launch Zelda, the biggest title of the year halfway through the promo window of your next hardware?
"It announces tomorrow, launches in February" HOLIDAY SALES!!!!
And so on. I have no idea what Nintendo intends, though I'm having fun playing the game, I can counterfactual all day long. We know so much about the SOC, but the marketing plan is clearly missing pieces. Guessing Nintendo's software launch strategy is tricky enough, but we know there are at least 11 games in some level of Drake dev for 18 months+ and we only have hints for what two of them might be.
I think it's safe to say this isn't going to follow the pattern of any previous hardware roll out, either from Nintendo or Sony/MS. The circumstances are unique, and the leadership at Nintendo has changed since the Switch launch, let alone any other hardware launches in the past.
As I see it, the reasons you want to have time between reveal and release would be:
- Give time to show the hardware, and time for people to understand the unique features/form-factor
- Give time to show off the games in development for the new hardware
- Get the announcement in before everything gets leaked
- Your previous gen hardware is faltering, and you want to keep up interest in the brand by starting to reveal some info early
Item 1 doesn't really require much time these days, and particularly not for a new Switch. If the form factor stays the same, as we're expecting, there's not a lot to get across here.
Item 2 I think is usually the big one. Next gen console reveals are usually accompanied by new game reveals, and you want to give enough time for those games to have a decent amount of PR exposure before release. For the new Switch, I'm personally expecting all the launch window games to also run on the original model, so Nintendo can announce those before the new hardware. I would expect some third-party games that only run on the new hardware, but these games will already have been announced (or even released) for other consoles. Still, I think Nintendo would want to give some amount of time to show off games running on the new hardware. Better looking games than the original Switch (or good looking third party games not on the original Switch) seems to be the main selling point of the new device in the short term, so you would want to give some amount of time for in-depth showcases and press hands-on across the full range of games to really drive the point across.
Item 3 is also a likely factor, as the closer you get to launch the bigger the possibility of leaks, as you run through manufacturing, distribution and retail channels. Then again, the PS4 Pro was extensively leaked before its reveal, but Sony didn't seem to care, so maybe Nintendo won't either?
Item 4 isn't really an issue here, obviously enough.
My expectation is we're looking at around a 3 month cycle from reveal to release. They can't really do what they did with the original Switch, where they reveal the form factor and name in a short trailer, and then come back months later to showcase the games. That video would be basically identical for the new model, from what we know (just sub in TOTK for BOTW), so they really need to go straight to showing off the games. My assumption is that they still want to keep the initial reveal video short, to maximise exposure, but they'll have to take a very different track than the original Switch. I'm thinking basically a micro-direct, which would consist of:
- Here's our new Switch, the Switch [redacted]
- It's got a new chip from Nvidia, it can play the latest games with amazing graphics and supports 4K
- It's also got a 1080p screen/HDR/cameras/brain interface/whatever
- All your current games can run on it, and we're updating some of them
- Don't worry, we'll still release lots of games on the original Switch, with updated graphics on [redacted]
- Some third parties will release games exclusively on [redacted], though
- Here's a sizzle reel, with obligatory shots of people playing on planes/rooftops/etc.
- Join us next week for a showcase of the games you'll be playing on Switch [redacted]
Then a full length direct for the games a week or so later, followed by PR events where press can get their hands on it, more in-depth Treehouse-style content for specific games, etc.
I could see them squeezing down the cycle to two months at the very least, but I'm expecting something around the 3 month period, and would be surprised if it's much more than 4 months, which seems unnecessary. With a reveal in January or February, that would put a release between March and May. I'm ruling out anything after May as I can't imagine that they would release TOTK after announcing the new hardware, but before it releases, and I don't see them announcing the hardware after TOTK if the chip's already in production (it would mean basically a full year of chip production before launch).
Also, if we're taking bets on as-yet unannounced games that will be launch window showcases for the new hardware, I'm going to put some money down on Wave Race. Both Wave Race 64 and Blue Storm were launch window graphical showcases, so it would be continuing in a fine tradition (also I just want a new Wave Race).
