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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

Another reminder not to buy stock in corporate entities you are a fan of. That's the worst mistake you can make. Your judgment is entirely clouded by what YOU want the company to do.

It's just a way to take your massive emotional investment in said corporate entity and translate it, via the language of capitalism, into a monetary investment so it feels more real. Sell it all, and invest in a diversified portfolio.

Or, if it's some token amount like 100 dollars that you're totally OK losing, don't come into a thread and act like you're one of the companies "investors."
 
As a Nintendo investor, I am extremely disappointed. I was talking with some other investors and we all were disappointed with the meeting. I and many others made it known we support the movement for new leadership. No new hardware this fiscal year is a massive mistake and I think the global economic climate will shift toward the worse by late 2024 essentially neutering any hardware launch past Q4 2023. Lack of solid plan regarding cloud and mobile also factors. The revenue from the Mario movie is nice and I like their support/willingness to explore more in that space so it wasn't all bad. Despite shareholders whining, Nobody is gonna sell and nothing is going to happen to Furukawa. I will continue to criticize upon deaf ears however lol
Economic downturn is not a bad thing for switch sales due to lipstick effect.
 
I'm gonna laugh if it turns out I guessed this out of sheer luck.
I doubt the Switch 2 will be celullar. 5G eats up battery. I can’t think of any justification for the console to have a 5G antenna in it. Plus we haven’t seen leaks of Nintendo procuring antennas, be it Qualcomm or someone else
 
You missed the point that I was getting at, Nintendo’s biggest issue with the next system is not the PlayStation 5 or the Xbox series, Nintendo’s biggest issue with the Nintendo Switch successor is the Nintendo switch.

It is their biggest enemy and the biggest difficulty in transitioning from one to the other. The 3DS started with a very weak first party at launch despite having a solid amount of third party, that they had to kill two other systems, and another one had to be forcibly be put down because of its rampant piracy to help kick-off the 3DS from the ground. Some Wii games were moved to the 3DS in order to give it life, eg Kid Icarus Uprising.

If Nintendo has a very heavy amount of titles with the Nintendo switch, they will end up having. a lighter amount of titles for the Nintendo switch 2. If they. If they have a lighter amount of titles for the Nintendo switch, they have a heavier amount of titles for the Nintendo Switch 2, but at the detriment of killing the Nintendo switch earlier than expected, and that has its own effect on the successor.

Nintendo‘s biggest hurdle, like I said, is the Nintendo Switch, and how to overcome it in the most balanced way possible. Sony went through this and they’ve managed to do it perfectly and they’re selling much better because the balance the first party from the third-party. They are a third party driven platform so it worked out well with their end. Microsoft, on the other hand has not been having a great success with this, and we see how they have been going it down, not up, Year over Year. Why? Because they literally don’t have anything to give out to their players, that are of note.

Nintendo is very strongly first party driven, the balance is very different from the other two, henceforth: This is a very difficult balancing act, Nintendo is quite literally living in “the biggest enemy is thyself”

This sounds more dramatic than what I want it to, but it’s the issue they will face.

The Nintendo Switch.

A company with 40 years of gaming experience and yet has had hits and misses in the hardware cycles. Over and over.


Nintendo isn’t guaranteed a hit every single time, and that’s because of their own doing.

This makes less sense considering that the forecast is too high if there is new hardware this FY (there is not imo). If they announce it, the switch will tank and they can kiss that PS2 number goodbye.


The number should be about, like, 9-12M, not 15M, if they plan to release anything this year.

The Switch 2 is in a very similar situation than the PS5. Games will sell, if people are playing it on one system or the other.

A Switch successor that just runs games better will sell out for months. If the new system has exclusives that really showcase the hardware, that's just the cherry on top.

If the Switch really can cannibalize Switch 2 sales, Nintendo wins even more, selling hardware for higher profit and the promise of another sale later. They just want to sell software.

This isn't the NES-SNES or Wii-WiiU era where you need to transition all your user-base to have success. If an IPhone 14 user doesn't buy the IPhone 15, he'll buy the 16, or the 17. Nintendo would keep selling software to those users.

I don't think the Switch successor will have anywhere near the same success as the Switch. Nintendo may have to embrace a multi-generational platform and gradually transition it, step-by-step over decades, to build a platform/cloud/service that will rival (or be complementary to) Steam/PS/GamePass in the long run.

They need to hold those 100+M customers, wherever they play, specially if they play on the current Switch.
 
This does not seem likely. Imagine advertising as shiny new console that literally does everything much better, right after the audience opened their Christmas presents that has the predecessor.
I still don't think the folks buying a switch this holiday season will buy enough software to care that a new system is on the horizon

not the first game Private Division announced super early. it's not a hint at anything

COD won't happen until the ActiBliz deal is sorted out at least, and quite possibly won't unless Microsoft wins as I doubt Switch ports are easy
CoD will come regardless of the deal if Nintendo gives enough of a shit to push for it
 
I still don't think the folks buying a switch this holiday season will buy enough software to care that a new system is on the horizon


not the first game Private Division announced super early. it's not a hint at anything


CoD will come regardless of the deal if Nintendo gives enough of a shit to push for it
I mean I don't think the Switch can run CoD, and perhaps Sony's deals effect it (though 1.I doubt they'd care more then they do about Xbox who still gets it and 2.After the buyout fails I could see things souring, some things like "Guys Kotick is gonna stop releasing CoD on PlayStation" is totally fanfiction but the actual exclusivity deals may die imo)

next gen is another story but
 
This makes less sense considering that the forecast is too high if there is new hardware this FY (there is not imo). If they announce it, the switch will tank and they can kiss that PS2 number goodbye.


The number should be about, like, 9-12M, not 15M, if they plan to release anything this year.
now, I want to preface this by saying that I no longer believe in this fiscal year

but them insisting that they probably won't hit this number aligns with this
 
If Nintendo doesnt have a game for the holidays this year, i dont see the harm in announcing the console early,the casuals whom are plenty that DON'T follow gaming news cycles will still go out and buy Switches just because its there
 
The Switch 2 is in a very similar situation than the PS5. Games will sell, if people are playing it on one system or the other.

A Switch successor that just runs games better will sell out for months. If the new system has exclusives that really showcase the hardware, that's just the cherry on top.

If the Switch really can cannibalize Switch 2 sales, Nintendo wins even more, selling hardware for higher profit and the promise of another sale later. They just want to sell software.

This isn't the NES-SNES or Wii-WiiU era where you need to transition all your user-base to have success. If an IPhone 14 user doesn't buy the IPhone 15, he'll buy the 16, or the 17. Nintendo would keep selling software to those users.

I don't think the Switch successor will have anywhere near the same success as the Switch. Nintendo may have to embrace a multi-generational platform and gradually transition it, step-by-step over decades, to build a platform/cloud/service that will rival (or be complementary to) Steam/PS/GamePass in the long run.

They need to hold those 100+M customers, wherever they play, specially if they play on the current Switch.
I kind of disagree if only because I think consumers will upgrade sooner and more frequently than we might believe, particularly with marquis titles like Pokemon, Mario Kart and Animal Crossing. I do believe that the transition will take a few years, but not that long.
 
If Nintendo doesnt have a game for the holidays this year, i dont see the harm in announcing the console early,the casuals whom are plenty that DON'T follow gaming news cycles will still go out and buy Switches just because its there
It won’t be just gaming news that will be reporting on the announcement of a new device. Once the announcement is made it will be very hard to not know there is a new device coming out.
 
I mean I don't think the Switch can run CoD, and perhaps Sony's deals effect it (though 1.I doubt they'd care more then they do about Xbox who still gets it and 2.After the buyout fails I could see things souring, some things like "Guys Kotick is gonna stop releasing CoD on PlayStation" is totally fanfiction but the actual exclusivity deals may die imo)

next gen is another story but
Switch can run cod the Wii u could and the switch has access to more modern things like that AMD upscaling thats been used in the past
 
The Switch 2 is in a very similar situation than the PS5. Games will sell, if people are playing it on one system or the other.

A Switch successor that just runs games better will sell out for months. If the new system has exclusives that really showcase the hardware, that's just the cherry on top.

If the Switch really can cannibalize Switch 2 sales, Nintendo wins even more, selling hardware for higher profit and the promise of another sale later. They just want to sell software.

This isn't the NES-SNES or Wii-WiiU era where you need to transition all your user-base to have success. If an IPhone 14 user doesn't buy the IPhone 15, he'll buy the 16, or the 17. Nintendo would keep selling software to those users.

I don't think the Switch successor will have anywhere near the same success as the Switch. Nintendo may have to embrace a multi-generational platform and gradually transition it, step-by-step over decades, to build a platform/cloud/service that will rival (or be complementary to) Steam/PS/GamePass in the long run.

They need to hold those 100+M customers, wherever they play, specially if they play on the current Switch.
You didn’t understand the point I’m making about why it’s a difficult balancing act. And also the Nintendo switch 2 is very much not in the same position as a PlayStation 5, the PlayStation 5 doesn’t necessarily need first party titles to sell well because it’s the premier third party spot, the Nintendo switch 2 does need first party games to sell. These are two completely different worlds.



As I said before, if they pull too much in one way, it is at the detriment of another. If they pull in the opposite direction, it is also to the detriment of the other. Nintendo is expanding, however they haven’t expanded fast enough to facilitate a proper first two years of a Nintendo switch 2 and also have a plethora, and I mean a plethora of first party releases for the Nintendo switch from now until it releases to not starve the current switch playerbase. They have to balance out where it is not the detriment of one or the other and that is a difficult balance to make.

It’s not that simple. Or what? Do people expect Nintendo to just starve the switch 2 since they released too much on the base switch? Or do people expect them to starve the switch and keep the switch 2 big and fat at the launch and leave the switch barren carried by what people don’t focus on when buying their consoles like the last time and just tank their momentum?



This is probably they haven’t shown anything yet for latter half, it’s not as simply as drop a direct.


Also, what does it matter that it would sell out for months, it’s hardcore fans that reside in forums like this that are the ones that buy things like that day 1. Series sold out for months and look at where it’s at right now.
 
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could the same be said about new hardware H2 2024 instead of H1?

It'd be fair to say that, yes.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe you mentioned you've only heard the next Fire Emblem remake is coming to the current Switch.

Do you believe there's a chance this could mirror 2017 where Shadows of Valentia released only on 3DS after the launch of the switch or do you anticipate this title to be out well before the new hardware is? If the successor is holiday 2024 like I'm anticipating I could see this FE fill out a month in the run up to a new generation just curious how you see it shaking out

EDIT: def hit reply on that Nate post oh well
Should arrive before new hardware comes to market.
 
Another reminder not to buy stock in corporate entities you are a fan of. That's the worst mistake you can make. Your judgment is entirely clouded by what YOU want the company to do.

It's just a way to take your massive emotional investment in said corporate entity and translate it, via the language of capitalism, into a monetary investment so it feels more real. Sell it all, and invest in a diversified portfolio.

Or, if it's some token amount like 100 dollars that you're totally OK losing, don't come into a thread and act like you're one of the companies "investors."

The only exception to this advice that I can think of is if you have like, a net worth of over eight figures and investing minimum 40-50k in Nintendo is a relatively inconsequential fun thing you do.
 
This makes less sense considering that the forecast is too high if there is new hardware this FY (there is not imo). If they announce it, the switch will tank and they can kiss that PS2 number goodbye.


The number should be about, like, 9-12M, not 15M, if they plan to release anything this year.
They weren’t gonna hit PS2 numbers anyway, I feel. They’ve let Switch 1 drag out for far too long and now they’re staring down the very real possibility of another 3DS- or even Wii U-tier transition. When literally everyone is saying your hardware is outdated, 15 million feels like a laughably optimistic forecast.
 
isn't nintendo's stock ntdoy? Do they have two different stocks?
Are you asking what ADR stands for? According to SEC, an "ADR is a security that represents shares of non-U.S. companies that are held by a U.S. depositary bank outside the United States". Since the real Nintendo stock "7974" is listed in Tokyo, the US investors can only buy "NTDOY" (an ADR) instead. Each "NTDOY" represent .25 share of "7974". So buying four shares of "NTDOY" in the US essentially let you own one share of "7974" in Tokyo.
 
They weren’t gonna hit PS2 numbers anyway, I feel. They’ve let Switch 1 drag out for far too long and now they’re staring down the very real possibility of another 3DS- or even Wii U-tier transition. When literally everyone is saying your hardware is outdated, 15 million feels like a laughably optimistic forecast.
do a price cut and revive the Nintendo Select line, and you will see Switch explode in sales again, but Furukawa is too stuborn to do this
 
They weren’t gonna hit PS2 numbers anyway, I feel. They’ve let Switch 1 drag out for far too long and now they’re staring down the very real possibility of another 3DS- or even Wii U-tier transition. When literally everyone is saying your hardware is outdated, 15 million feels like a laughably optimistic forecast.
I don’t even think it’s about being outdated personally as that’s less relevant considering it’s been outdated.

Maybe they are expecting 4M OLED models to be bought by the Zelda core fans and they sell 11M of the Standard OLED/V2/Lite models.


Which… good luck.
 
They weren’t gonna hit PS2 numbers anyway, I feel. They’ve let Switch 1 drag out for far too long and now they’re staring down the very real possibility of another 3DS- or even Wii U-tier transition. When literally everyone is saying your hardware is outdated, 15 million feels like a laughably optimistic forecast.
I doubt it considering both of the systems need context as to why they transitioned poorly:
  • 3DS was mostly a software problem due in part because of the WiiU. It didn’t help the device was over costed.
  • WiiU is an example of how not to conceive a device. Even having the perfect transition wasn’t helping it.
Nintendo is still doing a very good job in software engagement. Which is something that both Wii & DS lacked at the end of their lives. If they can keep that high for the year then [redacted] will be fine. I’d argue it will be fine regardless since there is only one place to get certain franchises now.
do a price cut and revive the Nintendo Select line, and you will see Switch explode in sales again, but Furukawa is too stuborn to do this
It has little to do with being stubborn & more to do with economics. A price cut may help shift hardware but probably at a loss-if the margins haven’t improved from the last time they spoke on this. Bundles & special editions may do more in this regard with better margins.

The Select Line is dead I figure. Vouchers & the yearly discount probably have the same effect in Nintendo’s eyes.
 
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I do know of unannounced stuff slated for this year.

If it’s okay to ask, would you happen to know anything about the Bamco remaster for Nintendo? Lots of people on the boards seem to think it’s gonna be Kid Icarus, but I’m skeptical.
 
At this point I have zero emotional investment into the potential release date for this thing. I just want it to exist.
 
They weren’t gonna hit PS2 numbers anyway, I feel. They’ve let Switch 1 drag out for far too long and now they’re staring down the very real possibility of another 3DS- or even Wii U-tier transition. When literally everyone is saying your hardware is outdated, 15 million feels like a laughably optimistic forecast.

The Switch hasn't dragged out for far too long. The platform is not 84 months old which is roughly the age the PS3, PS4 and Xbox One were replaced. The Xbox 360 was replaced at 96 months on the market.

The Switch has sold better than all of these platforms and has posted one of the best year 6 results ever seen

While I personally think 15 million is a pipe dream and we'll be looking at aomething closer to 13 million, it isn't because the console is lagging, dragging or in any serious dangerous of a Wii-U like drop in sales. Software sales are extremely good and that is the first indication that consumwe interest is seriously dwindlng.

There is a difference between what may be best to maximize the firm's profit and what needs to be done to make sure the firm enter the market in a strong position are two very different things. If consoles with weaker hardware sales (the PS4 had prettt incredible software sales of course) managed to maker it 7 full years, why should the Switch, a platform almost a full year younger, have been replaced already?

What sense does this make outside of enrhusiasts just wanting better hardware?
 
This news doesn't really bug me since I had late 2023 as the unrealistic best-case scenario.

You can trust that time will fly by, and you will be reminiscing about this thread when it is both revealed and finally launches lol.

Let us enjoy whatever life Switch has left with Zelda, Pikmin 4, MP4, and whatever unannounced things they have in the bag.

We must not let the next-gen hybrid hype die out!

Me:
4tnk9r.jpg
 
* Hidden text: cannot be quoted. *

This is exactly what I'm thinking, but I'm not at all worried. My Switch isn't going anywhere for years (especially now I own a TotK OLED), and it will definitely have some kind of backwards compatibility.

Heck, even if it doesn't, that won't mater to 90% of people. Most 'enthusiasts' have already dumped/preserved/pirated the software anyway.
 
Heck, even if it doesn't, that won't mater to 90% of people. Most 'enthusiasts' have already dumped/preserved/pirated the software anyway.
I think you have that backwards I think It won't matter to maybe %10 of people. Almost everyone I know and countless YouTube comments, videos, threads on multiple websites and posts all want backwards compatibility
 
I think you have that backwards I think It won't matter to maybe %10 of people. Almost everyone I know and countless YouTube comments, videos, threads on multiple websites and posts all want backwards compatibility

Possibly, but honestly, Switch isn't going anywhere for years. It'll continue to sell well into this new console's life and even if it's not backwards compatible in the strictest sense (outside of NSO etc) then it's not an absolute disaster.
 
Possibly, but honestly, Switch isn't going anywhere for years. It'll continue to sell well into this new console's life and even if it's not backwards compatible in the strictest sense (outside of NSO etc) then it's not an absolute disaster.
Idk I feel like it would be a huge mistake if they didn't have 90%+ bc
 
Possibly, but honestly, Switch isn't going anywhere for years. It'll continue to sell well into this new console's life and even if it's not backwards compatible in the strictest sense (outside of NSO etc) then it's not an absolute disaster.
They should make it backwards compatible as the software on switch sold is 1 billion.
 
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